Asia Times
By M.K. Bhadrakumar
Jan. 17, 2021
A meeting of the leaderships of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in the
Kremlin on January 11, exactly two months after the ceasefire in the
44-day Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, can be seen as a robust push by
Moscow to consolidate its diplomatic achievement.
The ceasefire has gained traction and this is the opportune moment for
Russia to flesh out other aspects that were agreed by the three
countries on November 10 in Moscow.
A statement issued after Monday’s meeting underscored an agreement to
establish a tripartite Working Group of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan
at the deputy-prime-minister level, assisted by sub-groups of experts,
on the following lines:
“The Working Group, by March 1, 2021, will submit for approval at the
highest level by the Parties a list and a schedule for the
implementation of measures involving the restoration and construction
of new transport infrastructure facilities necessary for the
organization, implementation and security of international traffic
carried out through the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of
Armenia, as well as transportations carried out by the Republic of
Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, which require crossing the
territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of
Armenia.”
From subsequent remarks by the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev,
his country would have a rail link with Nakhchivan, the Azerbaijani
exclave that borders Turkey and Iran, for the first time in more than
three decades, and landlocked Armenia would get rail links with Russia
and Iran.
From available details, the focus is on a road corridor from mainland
Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through the 42-kilometer strip that the
Armenian district of Zengezur forms between them. For years, Azeri
mainlanders have been forced to travel to Nakhchivan via Iran and to
Turkey via Georgia.
Armenia, on the other hand, would stand to gain from an all-weather
land route to Russia via Azerbaijan.
The revival of the old rail networks dating back to the late 19th
century – the 1878 Treaty of San Stefano – and the 1921 Treaty of Kars
between Russia and Turkey is also being mentioned.
In principle, a reopening of the 877km Kars-Baku rail link running
through Nakhchivan and Armenia and connecting Russia’s North Caucasus
is possible, which could also be extended southward to the Iranian
city of Tabriz. Turkey fancies all this as a “a strategic corridor”
that would give it direct access to the gas and oil-rich Caspian basin
and Central Asia – and further beyond to China.
Evidently, Russia calculates that “any economic and infrastructure
agreements take on a political nature. If it is about transport
corridors, it means security and some sort of cooperation between the
Armenian and Azerbaijani ethnic groups,” Andrei Kortunov,
director-general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, put
it.
Kortunov estimated that although Monday’s agreements did not address
the core issue, namely, Nagorno-Karabakh’s status as such, which is
“hanging in the air,” the sides are moving in the right direction.
To quote the influential Moscow-based think-tanker, “Even the limited
agreements that have been reached make it possible to say that the
meeting [on Monday] was successful. Transport was taken as a neutral,
technical aspect of relations. With the first step made, the second
and thirds steps are to follow. So the opening of transport
communications should be followed by issues of the exchange of
prisoners, return of refugees, and co-living of two ethnic groups.”
But things are not going to be velvet-smooth. According to Kortunov,
Turkey’s absence from (non-participation in) the Moscow dialogue is
quite demonstrative. He explains tactfully, “It means that Turkey is
an important neighbor that cannot be absolutely excluded from what is
currently going on in the South Caucasus, but the Russian leadership
has once again demonstrated that the key role in this settlement and
post-settlement steps will be played by Moscow.”
For the present, there is a plausible explanation for keeping Turkey
out and looking in, while Moscow assembles the peace blocks. Turkey is
not liking it but is being pragmatic. But if Ankara succeeds in
establishing diplomatic relations with Yerevan, the calculus changes
overnight.
Equally, there are two other critical variables – the political future
of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and, second, Aliyev’s
dalliance with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Again, Iran cannot be liking its exclusion either. The fact of the
matter is that in the disjointed regional tapestry of the past three
decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan have had no choice but to use Iranian
territory for transit, and Tehran is reluctant to give up that
geopolitical trump card.
Above all, while as of now, the Western powers remain passive, the
attitude of the incoming US administration of Joe Biden remains the X
factor.
Last month, the US Congress legislated that “not later than 90 days
after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Director of National
Intelligence shall submit to the congressional intelligence committees
a written assessment regarding tensions between the governments of
Armenia and Azerbaijan, including with respect to the status of the
Nagorno Karabakh region.”
Congress has specifically directed the DNI to provide assessment on
the following lines:
An identification of the strategic interests of the United States
and its partners in the Armenia-Azerbaijan region;
A description of all significant uses of force in and around the
Nagorno-Karabakh region and the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan
during calendar year 2020, including a description of each significant
use of force and an assessment of who initiated the use of such force;
An assessment of the effect of US military assistance to
Azerbaijan and Armenia on the regional balance of power and the
likelihood of further use of military force; and,
An assessment of the likelihood of any further uses of force or
potentially destabilizing activities in the region in the near to
medium term.
Clearly, Washington is gearing up for a geopolitical struggle in the
Caucasus. Moscow probably senses this. And that would explain the
haste with which it is pushing infrastructure development in the South
Caucasus to create equities, while the Biden administration is still
in its infancy.
Russia is pursuing a trajectory to strengthen its position while
keeping the eventuality of having to engage with the Western powers at
some point within the framework of the Minsk Group.
President Vladimir Putin touches base with his French counterpart
Emmanuel Macron every now and then, the two countries being co-chairs
(along with the US) of the Minsk Group. Conceivably, Russia may be
open to working with the West on Nagorno-Karabakh but safeguarding its
legitimate interests. The big question is whether in the present
security environment, that is a realistic expectation.
Meanwhile, US analysts have lately been highlighting China’s growing
involvement in the South Caucasus. In the World Bank’s estimation,
since 2005, Chinese trade turnover with Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia increased by around 2,070%, 380% and 1,885% respectively.
Chinese investments are also increasing, given the Belt and Road
Initiative’s seamless potential to generate business. With the recent
completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad, China’s footprint will
rise further, and such economic presence will eventually translate as
political influence.
The geographical location of the South Caucasus countries makes them
viable transit routes for Chinese and European goods. One Chinese
scholar even described Azerbaijan recently as a “pivotal country” in
the BRI’s China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor. China is
developing a trade route via Kazakhstan that crosses the Caspian from
the Kazakh port of Aktau to Baku, which it visualizes as a BRI hub.
For the US, on the other hand, the Caucasus is vital turf for lighting
fires on Russia’s periphery, for navigating the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization’s expansion eastward, for establishing itself in the
oil-rich Caspian, for controlling one of China’s main trade arteries
to the European market, and for curbing Iran’s influence in the
region.
What should worry Washington most is that there is sufficient
convergence between Russia and China to keep the Caucasus out of the
US geopolitical orbit, especially as NATO is consolidating in the
Black Sea region.
*
M K Bhadrakumar is a former Indian diplomat.
Author: Edgar Tavakalian
PRESS RELEASE – Statement From The Office of AUA President
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Statement from the Office of AUA President
As the political climate in Armenia continues to remain tense, leading to frequent clashes of political opinions both inside and outside of AUA, the University reaffirms its apolitical stance as an institution. We remain deeply committed to the right to free speech and encourage our staff and faculty to freely share their opinions as individuals. In the email below, addressed to the AUA community on December 23, 2020, AUA President Dr. Karin Markides affirmed this position.
Date: December 23, 2020
Subject: Respecting Our Diversity of Opinions
In this time of extraordinary stress in our society, I want to express again my praise for the high standard of dedication that students, faculty, and staff continue to use to ensure quality education despite the unprecedented conditions.
As an educational institution, AUA has a broad and diverse constituency, including faculty, staff, students, alumni, and the administration and trustees. Each member of this institution will have his/her own political opinion, and we encourage them to discuss, elaborate, and communicate their views in a respectful manner. However, while respecting the diversity of opinions among our constituency, as an institution we do not align with any particular political view. It should be widely understood that AUA does not take or condone any particular political positions, and it will continue its mission of supporting the welfare of Armenia and the education of its students.
At AUA, faculty are encouraged to take their individual knowledge, interpretations, views, and opinions outside of the university. With this letter, I reinforce that this individual societal contribution is desired, expected and commendable and it will strengthen AUA as a trustworthy institution, as long as it is without doubt that the word is from individual faculty, staff, or students and who are not speaking for the institution.
As an institution, AUA is governed by trust and an understanding of and commitment to university policies. This collective trust needs continuous processing, and the level of trust can be measured by the undivided support of the AUA community on an institutional level. When the social contract is protected and developed, it will allow for faculty, students, and staff to express individual views on any issue.
It is sad to find that the social contract at AUA is challenged by its own leaders and other honorable members of our community. This contract is defined by our jointly developed policies, and it needs to stay on higher ground and withstand any threats of mistrust. The senior AUA community owes this to the next generation and to the lifelong learners that choose AUA for their education. We all need to live up to this standard, by supporting each other and the AUA brand.
We all understand and respect the pain and emotions that surge through our society, and as a university, we follow the guidelines set by the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), in situations when our ideas are considered threatening to religious, political, or social agendas. “When teachers speak or write in public, whether via social media or in academic journals, they are able to articulate their own opinions without the fear from institutional restriction or punishment, but they are encouraged to show restraint and clearly specify that they are not speaking for their institution. In practice, academic freedom is protected by institutional rules and regulations, letters of appointment, faculty handbooks, collective bargaining agreements, and academic custom.” At AUA, these institutional rules are clearly stated in our portfolio of policies.
—
Margarit Hovhannisyan | Communications Manager
Margarit Hovhannisyan|: Communication manager
+374 60 612 514,
mhovhannisyan
__________________________________________
American University of Armenia
Republic of Armenia, 0019, Yerevan, Marshal Baghramyan Ave. 40:00
40 Baghramyan Avenue, Yerevan 0019, Republic of Armenia
The ARPA Institute presents: Yervant Zoryan and Raffi Kassarjian on Saturday, January 16 at 10:00 AM PST, on ZOOM
2. Artsakh war and its consequences, Arman Grigoryan
Armenia: protests over alleged Pashinyan-Aliev meeting, rumored territory surrender
- JAMnews, Yerevan
Azerbaijan Archbishop: Our Holy Mission Is to Keep Peace
Armenian government plans to launch new projects for assisting Artsakh people
15:25, 5 January, 2021
YEREVAN, JANUARY 5, ARMENPRESS. President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan received today Armenia’s Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mesrop Arakelyan, the Presidential Office told Armenpress.
Issues relating to solving the social problems of the residents of Artsakh who remained without shelters due to the recent war and have temporarily settled in Armenia were discussed during the meeting.
The Artsakh President highlighted the importance of social assistance programs being implemented by the Armenian government, expressing hope that they will manage to ensure a secure social environment for the Artsakh people with joint efforts.
Minister Arakelyan assured that assisting the people of Artsakh is one of the main priorities of the ministry and added that the government is planning to launch new projects for that purpose.
Weather forecast in Armenia
14:56, 2 January, 2021
YEREVAN, JANUARY 2, ARMENPRESS. The ministry of emergency situations reports that in the daytime of January 2, on January 3-7 no precipitation is expected in Armenia.
The air temperature will not change considerably.
TURKISH press: Ancient Urartian caves of Tunceli to be restored in eastern Turkey
Ancient Urartian cave rooms in the Çemişgezek district of eastern Turkey’s Tunceli are expected to boost tourism in the city. The cave rooms, which were carved out by ancient people to create a settlement area, will be restored thanks to a project by the local district municipality.
Located in the hidden paradise of Tağar Creek Valley, the prehistoric cave rooms are a natural and archaeological protected site. Although the cavernous holes attract thousands of visitors every season of the year, they are mostly in ruins and have been targeted by treasure hunters for many years. Çemişgezek Municipality has embarked on a project to restore the caves back to their former glory.
Mehmet Güder, district governor of Çemişgezek, authorized the project that was approved by the Fırat Development Agency, a state-funded organization to help the local development of the region. The restoration and the related environmental planning consist of a suspension bridge for ease of accessibility, a walking trail, decorative lighting and restoration of the caves while protecting their historical texture.
“The project will boost tourism in the district that is home to cultural, historical and natural attractions,” Güder said. “We are working extremely hard on this project to ensure that the caves which were human-made nearly 3,000 years ago during the Urartu civilization, a ninth-century B.C. kingdom located in modern-day eastern Anatolia, are accessible and enjoyable to the public. Thankfully Fırat Development Agency has greenlit the project in recent days and efforts will continue according to plan,” he said.
Historically several names have been given to the mountain houses in these caves, including “Derviş (Dervish) cells” and “den holes.” The ancient architects of the caves are thought to be from the Urartian civilization.
The settlement complex consists of four stories and features 25 rooms with natural heating systems and long corridors with large scenic windows. The topmost flat, called “Bey Odası” (“Bey’s Chambers”), is a stone kiosk of sorts with an indoor pool but is almost impossible to reach due to the narrow stairs and corridors. There are also underground water reservoirs that collect fresh rainwater that seeps through the rock. Whether these reservoirs are natural or human-made is unknown.
The caves are one of the most intriguing and fascinating sights in Tunceli. Güder stated that they are determined not to alter the natural and historical texture of the site and will be using wood for the restoration project. “We have plans for a wooden suspension bridge, a walking trail with wooden railing and external installations of lighting.”
“We have acquired approval from Erzurum Cultural and Natural Heritage Preservation Foundation, for the project,” he added. “This project will boost tourism in Çemişgezek and Tunceli, and will be an important part of our regional and national heritage.”
Putin, Macron discuss situation in Nagorno Karabakh
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron.
The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh was thoroughly discuss. The President of Russia stressed that the situation in the region is stabilizing, and the agreements, enshrined in the Statement of the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia – are generally being consistently implemented.
The parties emphasized the successful work of the Russian peacekeepers, providing, at the request of Baku and Yerevan, the ceasefire and the safety of the civilian population.
They reaffirmed their mutual readiness to continue coordination on various aspects of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, in particular, within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.
Among the most urgent issues were the humanitarian problems associated with the return of refugees, the restoration of infrastructure, the preservation of religious and cultural monuments, in particular through the International Center for Humanitarian Response.