Author: Dabaghian Diana

AZERI COUP PLOTTER FEARS CIVIL WAR IF ELECTIONS RIGGED
Mahir Cavadov, Salzburg, Austria
Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency
Oct 8 2005
The exiled Azerbaijani politician, Mahir Cavadov, who was implicated
in the 1995 attempt to seize power, has said that he fears a civil
war may be possible if the forthcoming election is rigged. In the
interview, published on a Chechen rebel website, he said his original
interview with an Azerbaijani publication was distorted and that the
attack on his brother was provoked by former Azerbaijani President
Heydar Aliyev. Whereas the West has a vested interest in the election
being legal, Russia wants to keep the incumbent President Ilham Aliyev
in power, he says. Cavadov, who hopes to return home from Austria,
says he supports the exiled former speaker Rasul Quliyev and would
like to see him tried in an open court, but it will be difficult for
him to return as he would be in danger of his life. The following
is the text of the interview headlined “Mahir Cavadov: ‘My interview
was distorted'” carried on the Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency website on
8 October. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Rovsan Cavadov’s murder “provoked by former Azerbaijani leader”
The well-known Azerbaijani opposition MP Mahir Cavadov has approached
the Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency because he claims that the Azerbaijani
Day.az publication had distorted an interview he gave to journalists.
Kavkaz-Tsentr has received the full text of the original interview.
It will be recalled that Mahir Cavadov is the brother of the former
Azerbaijani Deputy Interior Minister Rovsan Cavadov who commanded
an OMON [special-purpose police detachment] regiment. Accused by
[former Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev in 1995 of attempts to
seize power, Rovsan Cavadov was murdered, and Mahir fled to Austria
where he obtained political asylum. Mahir Cavadov himself believes
that the armed attack by the OMON regiment in 1995 was provoked by
Heydar Aliyev himself so as to take care of the real and powerful, as
he described it, force which was standing in the way of establishing
Aliyev’s regime of personal dictatorial power.
Here is the text of Mahir Cavadov’s letter as sent to the Kavkaz-Tsentr
editorial office:
>>From Mahir Cavadov, Salzburg, Austria, 28 September 2005. Mahir
Cavadov’s replies to questions put by Day.az in Azerbaijan, which
were forwarded by the journalist Zaur Rasulzada by e-mail.
Hello, Zaur bay [mode of address]! In accordance with our agreement,
I am sending you my replies to your nine questions. Respectfully yours,
Mahir Cavadov.
[Day.az agency] How do you assess the pre-election situation in
Azerbaijan?
Authorities preparing to rig the election
[Cavadov] The point about the current parliamentary election is that on
this occasion the administration cannot afford to behave in the coarse
and destructive way it did before when drawing up the documentation for
the registration of candidates. The fact is, the tactics are different,
but the plan of the authorities remains the same – they are preparing
to rig these elections, too. Whereas before the administration allowed
only its own people to participate in the elections, it now suits
their purpose that anyone who wants to can register. Why is this?
So it is easier for the administration to camouflage its candidates
under cover of “independent” and “opposition”, for example, [Milli
Maclis deputy] Asim Mollazada and the administration’s own people
grouped around him. But, in view of the fact that the authorities have
managed to keep the old electoral commission team, which rigged the
last elections, then the “independents” and “opposition” will enter
parliament not through the choice of the electorate, but because the
election was rigged.
But these crude actions are having a negative effect for the
administration, which to some extent is in the interests of the
opposition. Moreover, the current pre-election situation in Azerbaijan
is such that evident opponents of Russia and the West, who were not so
evident at the last elections, have been allowed to take part in them.
They are following these elections closely because whereas the
West now has a vested interest in these elections being legal, then
[Russian President Vladimir] Putin will strive to keep Ilham Aliyev
in power, which Iran also has a vested interest in. His value for
them lies in the fact that for many reasons he has not been able to
resolve Azerbaijan’s Karabakh problem which, in the opinion of Putin
and the Iranian leaders, based on the arguments of the Armenian side,
allegedly allows their states to avoid geopolitical processes which
they find undesirable.
These facts have been very clearly shown in Moldova and Georgia. In
these countries Putin’s Russia also took part in the elections, but
against their current leaders, because they, unlike Ilham Aliyev,
are really trying to restore their countries’ territorial integrity.
[Day.az] What are your predictions regarding the standoff between
the authorities and the opposition?
[Cavadov] Everyone knows that the previous elections in Azerbaijan
were rigged by the Aliyevs. The present opposition leaders lost these
elections to them. After every setback the opposition leaders promise
our people that at the next elections they will definitely get their
revenge. So these leaders have held out in the political arena until
the current elections which will be, as it were, the moment of truth
for them. The opposition leaders must win at this election, i.e. get
a decisive majority in parliament, otherwise the people will send
them packing whatever they say. They are obviously aware of this
fact. If they lose, they will resign, because these are the rules
of the political game adopted throughout the civilized world. It is
probable that these circumstances will force them to take radical
action against the authorities if the forthcoming election is rigged.
[Day.az] What is your position at these elections?
[Cavadov] I am on the side of the opposition. I will support them
with all my strength!
[Day.az] What do you think will be the West’s position on the results
of the elections?
[Cavadov] If the opposition leaders operate as in Georgia, Ukraine
and Kyrgyzstan and oppose election rigging, then I think the West
will support them. If not, then as in the past, the West will be
congratulating the authorities on their victory.
[Day.az] Do you plan to return to your Motherland?
[Cavadov] Yes!
[Day.az] What is your attitude to [the chairman of opposition
Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, ex-speaker in exile in the USA]
Rasul Quliyev?
Former speaker should be tried in open court
[Cavadov] I base my attitude to Rasul Quliyev by looking at the way
things are politically. In any event his struggle against the Aliyev
clan is part of the common struggle against tyranny. Therefore, I
will resolve the question of his involvement in the murder of Rovsan
Cavadov and the OMON affair not by way of mob law, but in an open
Azerbaijani court. And this will probably only be after the Aliyev
clan is removed from power. Although this is a very difficult task,
it is a possible one, so long as we – those who very much want this –
can sort out the relations between us!
I know what Quliyev is like and how he thinks. We all know that in
1993-96 the Aliyevs, using Quliyev against the opposition, were able to
disturb the political equilibrium in Azerbaijan in their own interests
– they removed [ex-President Abulfaz] Elcibay, [ex-Prime Minister]
Surat Huseynov, Rovsan Cavadov and many others from the political
arena. And when they were no longer there, Quliyev was no longer
of any use to them. Because he was weak in his strategic thinking,
at that time Quliyev failed to foresee the negative consequences of
his actions. After all, if these people had remained in the political
arena, the Aliyevs would not have been able to treat him in the way
they did. Quliyev was on his own against them.
At that time I tried to explain this to Quliyev, but he could
not understand it. Unfortunately, the Quliyev of 2005 is not very
different from the Quliyev of 1993-96. But still I support him, and
in this way I am trying to help restore the political equilibrium in
Azerbaijan. At the same time, we have to realize that the authorities
have created and deployed more than a hundred people like Quliyev in
the Azerbaijani political arena. But they, unlike the real Quliyev,
have been programmed in such a way that they consider the opposition
– and, therefore Quliyev himself – and not the authorities, to be
their opponents.
[Day.az] Do you think Quliyev will come back to take part in the
elections?
[Cavadov] I suspect that at so long as the Aliyevs are in power in
Azerbaijan it will be difficult for him to do this. But if in some way
he manages to get back to Azerbaijan, then it will be hard for him to
survive there, because the authorities do not intend to deal with him
in an official way. Ilham Aliyev has already issued an order to have
Quliyev killed if he sets foot on Azerbaijani territory, and then he
intends to accuse the OMON of this. In turn, I will try to help save
Quliyev because I have a vested political interest in his mission.
[Day.az] What do you think about Ilham Aliyev?
Ilham Aliyev’s “crimes”
[Cavadov] As you probably know, when Ilham Aliyev became president,
in the name of establishing civil peace in Azerbaijan, I acknowledged
his accession, and in return I proposed that he reject the criminal
past and disgraceful legacy of his father. However, he did not accept
such a proposal and when he started his direct rule the litany of all
these political murders and arrests of opposition members continued.
The continuation of his father’s policy automatically means he has
no interest in solving the Karabakh problem. His actions and talks
on this question can only be described as a fiction!
Thus, Ilham Aliyev has stooped to carrying out new crimes. Once a
person who has committed a crime remains unpunished, he will commit
further crimes in order to avoid punishment. My attitude to Ilham
Aliyev can be deduced by taking into account the above-mentioned
facts. I have no personal claims against him.
Fears of civil war
[Day.az] Do you think a revolution is possible in the country and
what will its consequences be for Azerbaijan?
[Cavadov] The state of our people and the biography of the people in
power in Azerbaijan is such that after the rigging of the current
parliamentary election, it is probable that there will not be
a revolution but a civil war! The consequences of such a war for
Azerbaijan as a state may be positive, but any civil war is accompanied
by human sacrifice, tragedy and destruction.

THE PRESIDENT OF LATVIA IN NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
National Assembly of RA, Armenia
Oct 10 2005
On October 8 Vaira Vike-Freiberg, President of the Republic of Latvia
was hosted in the Nat ional Assembly. The problems of the development
of the Armenian-Latvian relations were in the center of discussions
with NA President Artur Baghdasaryan, representatives of the standing
committees of the National Assembly, factions and grouping. Welcoming
the high-ranking guest, NA President Artur Baghdasaryan highlighted
the experience of Latvia on the road of European Integration,
strengthening of inter-parliamentary cooperation (during the
visit of the President of the Republic of Latvia a memorandum of
inter-parliamentary cooperation was signed) and regional ties with
the establishment of direct ties between the marzes and cities. The
sides also elaborated on the trade-economic and scientific-cultural
ties, discussed the possibility of the establishment of a direct
flight between two countries, which can become an impetus for the
development of trade-economic ties.
Vaira Vike-Freiberg, President of the Republic of Latvia highlighted
the success of the constitutional reforms in Armenia, noting that the
parliaments are always basic pillars of democracy, and the cooperation
of the legislative bodies of two countries has an important role in
the inter-state relations. He expressed confidence to continue the
cooperation in all directions with Armenia.
Hrair karapetyan, Secretary of ARF faction, expressed gratitude for
adopting the bill on recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the
first reading in the Parliament of Latvia. In response Mrs. Freiberg
mentioned that during her visit to Turkey she elaborated on the
necessity of recognizing the Armenian Genocide during the meeting
with the President and Prime Minister of Turkey, highlighting not
to have dark pages in the history of the country before joining the
European family.
During the meeting other issues were also discussed.

THE ECONOMIST: ARMENIA ARMENIANS SUPPORT TURKEY’S EU MEMBERSHIP
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Oct 10 2005
LONDON and ANKARA (JTW) – British weekly the Economist reported
that the Armenians in Armenia support Turkey’s European Union
(EU) membership while the overseas Armenians strongly oppose such
a development.
Arsen Ghazaryan, who co-chairs association of Turkish and Armenian
businessmen, told the weekly that Armenian economy is frustrated
because of the economic isolation. A Young Armenian woman told the
Economist “It’s easy to be principled in the diaspora. They don’t
have to live between Turkey and Azerbaijan”.
Dr. Nilgun Gulcan who defends that there are enormous differences
between Armenia Armenians and the Diaspora Armenians is not optimistic:
“The Economist reports just a little part of the true story. Turkey’s
membership will change a lot the region and the Armenians will
enjoy. However Armenian Government has not realized this simple
fact. Yerevan still tries to undermine Turkish interests in the
European Union. They did anything possible to prevent Turkey’s EU
membership” she added.
According to Dr. Nilgun Gulcan the Armenian Government is under the
control of the Diaspora extremists:
“The Diaspora ultra-nationalists shifted the political tendencies
in Armenia. They made a secret coup against the Ter Petrosyan
Administration, because Petrosyan knew that Armenia could not survive
without regional co-operation. The first President understood that
relying the foreign countries and the Diaspora harmed Armenia and
Armenians. The Tashnaks and the other extremists made co-operation
with the Russian deep state and they changed the president. Now the
ultra-hawk Kocharian is president and he is also a Diaspora Armenian.
He commanded the occupying Karabakh Armenian forces. The extremists
know that any solution would end their economic and political
interests. If there is no Turkish-Armenian problem, how they can
collect donation from the Armenians in California? If there is no
Armenian issue, how the Armenian politicians in France can get vote
from the Armenian voters? Many Armenians owe their famous and economic
wealth to the Armenian Problem. I mean they abuse the past for their
own personal and group interests. As a matter of fact that they do
not respect their ancestors’ tragedy.”
Dr. Sedat Laciner, director of ISRO, argued that both countries have
potential to become great allies:
“Armenia needs Turkey. There are more than 100 million Turks around
Armenia and Turkish Government is now really sincere in solving the
problems with Armenia. The border between Armenia and Turkey should
be opened and the business should be improved. Now the trade volume
between two countries is around 200 million dollars though the gate
is closed. Turkey will not open the border till Armenia withdraws
its forces from occupied territories and Yerevan recognise Turkey’s
national borders. However Armenia should understand that Armenia
could not survive by fighting Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
Irredentism will mostly damage Armenian interests. The extremist
Armenian nationalism just focuses on territory. The focus should
be shifted into the human factors. If your people are poor and not
integrated with the rest of the world, territory causes problem,
not wealth and power. Any compromise from irredentist demands will
make Armenia wealthier and more integrated with Europe. And Turkey
will be the most helpful country in this process”.
Armenians argue that the 1915 Relocation campaign was genocide,
though the Ottoman Empire never accepted the allegation. The Ottoman
State had declared that there was a riot and most of the Armenians
died due to the bad weather conditions, famine and war circumstances.
Turkey similarly has not accepted the Armenians claims. More than
520.000 Turkish people were massacred by the Armenian armed groups
during the First World War, and Turkish historians urge the Armenians
to recognize all these killings as massacre.

“THE FUTURE OF THE REGION IS THE EUROPEAN UNITED FAMILY”
National Assembly of RA, Armenia
Oct 6 2005
On October 5 RA NA President Artur Baghdasaryan received Goran
Lennmarker, OSCE PA Special Representative on Nagorno Karabakh
conflict.
During the meeting both sides the peaceful settlement of South
Caucasus regional conflicts and deepening of democracy, which will
give opportunity to the development of the regional countries with
the perspective of being integrated in the European big family.
At the request of Mr. Lennmarker RA NA President informed about the
process of constitutional reforms taking place in Armenia, after the
successful end of which other laws will also be changed complying
with European standards. Both sides highlighted the inclusion of the
whole society in the processes of constitutional reforms.
Elaborating on the current stage of the peaceful settlement of
Nagaorno Karabakh conflict, Mr. Lennmarker noted that his presented
report on the issue in Washington was very symbolically called
“Golden Opportunity,” and he really finds that both Azerbaijan and
Armenia a golden opportunity is created for overcoming the conflict
and progress. NA President Artur Baghdasaryan noted that Armenia was
for the peaceful settlement of the conflict and expressed a wish that
the key problem will get its peaceful and fair solution.
During the meeting the problems of the establishment of the
Armenian-Swedish inter-parliamentary relations were also discussed.

OSKANIAN-MAMMADYAROV MEETING MAY BE HELD IN LJUBLJANA
Pan Armenian
06.10.2005 10:35
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian FM Vartan Oskanian does not rule out the
opportunity to hold a meeting with his Azeri counterpart E. Mammadyarov
in Ljubljana in December. However, the Armenian FM said no official
invitation from the OSCE MG had been received yet. “A meeting is
not ruled out, as we will be in Ljubljana at that time,” Oskanian
stated. It should be reminded that earlier Mammadyarov said OSCE MG
US Co-Chair Steven Mann will arrive in Baku in the second decade of
October. The date of the meeting of the Armenian and Azeri FMs will
be appointed just in the course of that visit.
In his words, most probably the Oskanian-Mammadyarov meeting will be
held in Ljubljana December 4-5. It may take place during the Summit
of the OSCE FMs in Ljubljana, reported IA Regnum.

HIS HOLINESS ARAM I LEADS BRANCH OF CHURCH
The Toronto Star
October 5, 2005 Wednesday
His Holiness Aram I, of the Armenian Holy Apostolic Church, is the
Catholicos of the See of Cilicia, which is based in Lebanon. Aram I
arrived in Toronto Friday for a six-day visit.
The See of Cilicia was established in Lebanon after the Armenian
genocide in the early 20th Century. For historical and political
reasons, this branch developed into an independent institution
operating separately from the Armenian-based church, whose
administrative and spiritual headquarters has always been the Mother
See of Holy Etchmiadzin in Armenia. His Holiness Karekin II, whose
title is Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of all Armenians, leads
that church. Both have operations worldwide – generally linked to
the diaspora of one See or the other. The Canadian diocese for the
Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin is in Montreal. A story published last
Thursday did not explain the divide. As a result, the role of Aram
I was unclear. Clarification

MINISTER RULES OUT REGIME CHANGE AFTER ARMENIAN REFERENDUM
By Karine Kalantarian
Armenialiberty.org, Armenia
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Oct 5 2005
Armenia’s government will not feel obliged to resign in the event of
its failure to push through constitutional amendments at the upcoming
referendum, one of its most influential members said on Wednesday.
Minister for Local Government Hovik Abrahamian, also insisted that
popular apathy toward the proposed constitutional reform is not as
widespread as opinion polls and the media suggest.
“I want to assure all those people who don’t wish the authorities well
that nothing will happen if we fail to … ensure the [necessary]
voter turnout,” Abrahamian told RFE/RL. “If there are people who
think that the authorities must resign if the referendum fails,
they are badly wrong,” he added.
Armenia’s leading opposition forces hope to use the referendum,
slated for November 27, for a fresh attempt at regime change.
Opposition leaders say the rejection of the draft amendments to the
Armenian constitution would mean a popular vote of no confidence in
President Robert Kocharian and his administration.
However, Kocharian’s top allies reject any linkage between their
legitimacy and the outcome of the vote. “I find talk of regime change
inappropriate,” parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian said on Tuesday.
Abrahamian, who is widely regarded as Armenia’s unofficial deputy prime
minister, disagreed with those who believe that few Armenians show
interest in Kocharian’s package of amendments endorsed by Europe and
the United States. “I am convinced that the turnout will be adequate,”
he said. “We will do everything to get the people to participate and
explain to the people by means of propaganda that the constitutional
reform is very important for the country’s image and democratization.”
To pass, the amendments must be backed by at least one third of
Armenia’s 2.4 million eligible voters. An opinion poll released
last month suggested that only 13 percent of Yerevan residents will
definitely take part in the referendum. Baghdasarian himself stated
on September 12 that most Armenians “do not care” about the reform
which is dismissed as insignificant by the opposition.
According to Abrahamian, although the authorities will do “a lot of
work” to ensure a positive outcome of the referendum, they “can not
force people to take part in it.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

MEMBERSHIP FEE MUST BE PAID DURING 4 YEARS
Panorama
16:17 04/10/05
To become a member of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) Armenia must
pay 8 million and 951 thousand dollars during 4 years.
“43% of total amount must be paid by cash, and 57% the government must
pay by bonds”, the International Financial Cooperation department of
MFE reported Panorama. am today.
The point is, that recently it’s spread an information concerning to
the above mentioned membership, that our country is obliged to buy
10.557 stock shares of ADB. Let us remind you that ADB stock shares
overall comprise 3.509.728 stocks equivalent to 51.6 milliard dollars.
According to International Financial Cooperation department, 7.3% of
10. 557 stocks (that is 742 stocks) must be invested in the capital
of ADB. So our country must pay only for that stocks. /Panorama.am/

HISTORY ENSURES AUSTRIANS REMAIN BITTERLY OPPOSED
by Stephen Castle
The Independent
October 3, 2005
Across Europe, opinion may be divided on whether Turkey should be
allowed to enter the EU. But in Austria there is little sign of a
debate because history ensures that the issue touches the rawest
of nerves.
In 1683 the Ottoman army of Kara Mustafa Pasha was routed at the
gates of Vienna in a defeat that marked the last Turkish effort to
take the city. All around the Austrian capital are reminders of the
battle and so strong is the event in the national consciousness that
newspapers have characterised Ankara’s EU bid as a new siege of Vienna.
To complicate matters further Austria is a strong supporter of
(Christian) Croatia, which also wants to join the EU. This step has
been held up because of a row over Zagreb’s lack of co-operation in
surrendering a suspected war criminal, Ante Gotovina.
Austrians feel it would be wrong to start talking to Turkey while
holding back on Croatia. Vienna’s critics suggest darkly that Austria’s
own past may prompt it to worry less about punishing war crimes than
other nations.
Taking a tough stance has proved politically popular for the Austrian
Chancellor, Wolfgang Schnssel, but his party was crushed in regional
elections yesterday.
Elsewhere in Europe, the echoes of history have played a part in the
debate. France, home to Europe’s largest Armenian population, has
sometimes had difficult relations with Turkey. In 2001 its parliament
formally recognised the Armenian genocide (during the collapse of
the Ottoman empire) provoking fury from Ankara.
Ironically Ankara’s biggest rival, Greece, has not sought to hold up
talks, believing that a Turkey inside the EU would be more modern,
restrained and susceptible to outside influence.

BAGHDASARIAN DEMANDS STATE FUNDING FOR SAVINGS COMPENSATION
By Astghik Bedevian
Armenialiberty.org, Armenia
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Oct 4 2005
Parliament speaker Artur Baghdasarian demanded on Tuesday that the
Armenian government begin compensating the population for the dramatic
depreciation of its Soviet-era bank deposits, a major theme of his
socioeconomic discourse dismissed as populist by his foes.
Baghdasarian warned his coalition partners against scuttling the
passage of a controversial bill that suggests a partial solution
to the problem. He said agreement on enacting the bill was reached
by his Orinats Yerkir Party, Prime Minister Andranik Markarian’s
Republican Party (HHK) and the third coalition partner, the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) at a meeting with President
Robert Kocharian last week.
“I hope that the political agreement will be honored by the Republican
Party and other political forces that joined this initiative,” he
told reporters, alluding to the HHK’s long-running opposition to the
proposed compensation.
The bill in question, which was blocked by Markarian’s cabinet last
year, was unexpectedly included on the Armenian parliament’s agenda
on Monday. It calls for $83 million in public funds to be paid to
the former deposit holders within the next ten years.
Leaders of the National Assembly’s largest faction controlled by
the HHK continue to believe that the proposed sum is too modest to
address the problem and would lead to a waste of scarce government
resources. They indicated that they will block debate on the Orinats
Yerkir bill, arguing that the government’s draft budget for next year
does not earmark anything for the savings compensation.
“The budget must certainly include a relevant provision,” insisted
Baghdasarian. “Armenia will have a $1 billion budget next year. This
means the ongoing economic growth is allowing us to gradually address
socioeconomic problems. If the fight against corruption becomes more
effective, there will be even more funds at our disposal.”
Orinats Yerkir is represented in the government with three ministers.
None of them is known to have opposed the draft budget approved by
the executive last week.