Checkmate or Death

The New York Sun
December 14, 2007 Friday

Checkmate or Death

by BORIS GULKO and GABRIEL SCHOENFELD

MOROZEVICH VS. AKOPIAN (white) (black) Nimzo

"Death is the same everywhere,/ A man dies but once,/ Blessed is the
one that dies/ For the freedom of his nation." These are the stirring
words of the Armenian national anthem, written in the 19th century by
the Armenian poet Mikael Nalbandian and set to music and officially
adopted in 1991 upon the country’s gaining independence from the
USSR. Armenian chess players are nothing but ferocious, fully
prepared to win or die on the chessboard. Winning the most recent
Olympiad is only one of many accomplishments in their long and
glorious history. In the just-concluded European team championship,
the match between Armenia and Russia turned out to be decisive.
Russia won and took first place. Armenia lost and took second. The
dazzlingly original game between Alexander Morozevich and Vladimir
Akopian determined the outcome of the match. Blessed is the one that
dies; in this case it was Akopian.

MOROZEVICH VS. AKOPIAN (white) (black) Nimzo-Indian Defense

1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. Qc2 d5 5.a3 Bxc3+ 6. Qxc3 c5!? The
main theoretical lines 6… Ne4 7. Qc2 Nc6 or 7…c5 have been
thoroughly researched and black has faced difficulties in them in the
most recent games. Players have therefore recently returned to
Romanishin’s older idea of 6… c5!? 7. dxc5 d4 8. Qg3 0-0 In the
weeks after the conclusion of the European championship, black’s play
was rapidly improved upon. In Gasanov – Miroshnichenko, black tried
8…Nc6!? 9. Nf3?! (The fate of the sharp 8… Nc6 depends upon the
evaluation of the position after 9. Qxg7! Rg8 10. Qh6) 9…0-0 10.
Bh6 Ne8 11.h4 e5 12.h5 f5! 13.e3 (bad for white was 13. Bxg7? f4!)
13…Qa5+ 14. Nd2 Kh8! 15. Bg5 h6 16. Bh4 f4! with black gaining the
initiative. 9. Bh6 Ne8 10.h4! In Gelfand-Ponomarev 2006, white did
not gain an advantage after 10.e3 Nc6 11.0-0-0 Qc7! 12. Qxc7 Nxc7 13.
Bf4 e5 14. Bg3 dxe3 15. fxe3 a5! Now white brings his h1 rook, into
the game, keeping the f1 bishop and g1 knight on their starting
position. 10…Nd7?! Preferable was the immediate 10… Kh8! 11. Bf4
Nc6 12.b4 f6! with an unclear position. 11.h5! Qc7! 11…Nxc5 12.
Bxg7 Nxg7 13.h6 was clearly in white’s favor. 12. Rh3! f5! The best
way. The endgame after 12…Qxg3 13. Rxg3 Kh8 14. Bc1! Nxc5 15.b4 is
better for white. 13. Qxc7 13. Bxg7 f4! 14. Qg4 Nxg7 15.h6 Nxc5 16.
hxg7 Qxg7 17. Qxg7+ Kxg7 didn’t promise anything for white. 13…
Nxc7 14. Bg5 e5 Permitting the white bishop to relocate to the cozy
square d6. Preferable was 14…Re8!? 15.b4 a5 16. Rb1 axb4 17. axb4
e5 with a complicated struggle. 15. Be7! Re8 16. Bd6 Ne6 17. Rd1 Not
17.b4 a5, which promised black counterplay. 17? Nexc5 18.f4! exf4 19.
Nf3! d3 20.h6 g6?!

(See Diagram)

The crucial moment of the game. After black’s natural move, white
obtains a huge advantage. Black had to prefer 20…Na4! 21. Rd2 Ndc5
22. Bxf4 Nb6! 23.b4 Ne6 with mutual chances. 21. Ng5! Ne4 Black
cannot organize a successful blockade: 21…a5 22. Bxf4 a4 23. Re3!
Rxe3 24. Bxe3 dxe2 25. Bxe2 and the bishop on f1 wakes up and travels
to d5 with crushing impact. 22. Bxf4 dxe2 Of no help was 22…Ndc5
23. Re3! 23. Bxe2 Nxg5 24. Bxg5 Nc5 25. Re3 Ne4!? More defensive
resources were generated by 25…Be6! 26. Bf4 a5 27. Re5 Nb3. 26.
Bf3! Kf7 27. Bh4 Be6 28. Rd4 Rac8 29.b3 a5 To avoid perishing
silently, black had to play 29…b5!? 30. cxb5 Rc1+ 31. Rd1 Rc3 which
at least creates a mess. 30. Bxe4 fxe4 31.a4! Bf5 32. Rd5 b6 33. Rd6
Rb8 34. Kd2 Rb7 35. Kc3 Re6 36. Rd8 g5 Also unattractive was 36…Re8
37. Rxe8 Kxe8 38.g4! Be6 39. Rxe4 and white must win because of the
weaknesses of the black pawns on the queen-side. 37. Bxg5 Rg6 38. Rg3
e3 39. Rd5! Be6 Black could hang on a little longer after 39…Be4
40. Re5 Re6 41. Rxe6 Kxe6 42. Bxe3. 40. Rf3+ 1-0

Commentary: Torture, Bloodshed And Ethnic Exclusion In Guyana

COMMENTARY: TORTURE, BLOODSHED AND ETHNIC EXCLUSION IN GUYANA
By Rickford Burke

Caribbean Net News
6–.html
Dec 11 2007
Cayman Islands

The history of civilization is mottled with catastrophes and carnages
which have placed entire peoples in peril of extinction. Slavery
or the "Maafa" is the most evil atrocity known to man. Scholars of
African history instruct that 50 to 100 million Africans were killed
or abducted in the slave trade; the majority being men.

This decimation of the African civilization was a manifestation of
inhumanity and hate; symptoms of which have today burgeoned into other
evils. Racism, ethnic cleansing, ethnic torture and genocide have
gained primacy as apoplectic winds of hate fuel a recycling of history.

Rickford Burke, President of the Caribbean Guyana Institute for
Democracy Hitler’s odium of the Jewish people led to a pogrom. Nazi
Gestapo squads killed 6 million Jews in the Holocaust. On Kristallnacht
(crystal night) , November 9-10, 1938, 30,000 Jewish men in Germany
and Austria were eliminated.

Besides, the Ottoman Empire (modern Turkey), from 1915 to 1923,
methodically annihilated its Armenian population. One million people,
mostly men, were slaughtered. Hundreds of thousands were made stateless
refugees. By 1923, the Armenian population became extinct.

Genocidal ethnic cleansing, a corollary of hate, has been ravaging
modern civilization. Ethnic cleansing of the Tutsi tribe, by Hutu
guerrilla terrorists, exploded into genocide in Rwanda . According
to the UN, between April and June 1994, 800,000 Rwandan Tutsis
were massacred. Men were especially targeted for dismemberment and
executions. By 1995, 1.7 million Tutsis were displaced. As it was in
slavery, the world watched on in apathy. It was "just" Africa!

In the Balkans in 1992, then Yugoslavian President, Slobodan Milosevic,
led Bosnian Serbs in a systematic slaughter of 200,000 innocent
muslims and other minority ethnicities, in the (etnicko ciscenje)
ethnic cleansing of Bosnia, Herzegovina, Croatia and Kosovo. Men
were summarily executed. NATO Forces eventually invaded and ended
this carnage. Milosevic has since died in jail. This was Europe,
so the world acted decisively.

Currently, Darfur, Sudan, submerged in genocide, makes a bloody
splash on an ambivalent world, predisposed to the "It’s just Africa"
syndrome. Government Militias in Western Sudan have summarily executed
over 500,000 innocent civilians, and have razed and depopulated entire
villages and towns of the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic tribes.

Over 2.4 million people have been displaced. The tribesmen have been
decimated. This torrid manifestation of ethnic hate persists in spite
of a universal clamor for international military intervention.

However, the intransigent world looks away from the people of Darfur
because "It’s just Africa."

Ethnic cleansing is the deliberate mass killing, depopulation,
imprisonment, isolation or torture of an ethnic group, in order to
engineer a homogeneous ethnic population. In most cases, that State
becomes despotic and practices ethnocracy; where the government usurps
the resources of the state for the sole benefit of a single ethnic
or racial collectivity.

Guyana today is becoming a mini-Darfur. It is at the precipice of
despotism and ethnocracy. Its People’s Progressive Party (PPP)
government is a repressive, East Indian-triumphalist regime,
with Marxist leanings. Since it assumed office in 1992, it has
engulfed the nation in racial supremacy, ethnic exclusion and racial
triumphalism. The resources of the state have been utilized almost
exclusively for the sole benefit of its East Indian political base.

The government services are being systematically cleansed. Blacks
are in a state of ethnic insecurity and servitude. The regime has
withheld subventions and union dues from African constituted and
controlled labor unions. There is an ongoing campaign to dismantle
black labor unions, like the Guyana Public Service Union (GPSU) and
the Guyana Labor Union (GLU), and to demonize their leaders. There
has been no substantial wages increase for the African dominated mid
and low level government employees, members of the GPSU, as opposed
to workers in the sugar belt.

The PPP government characteristically subverts the law for political
expediency. It has removed the black Chief Magistrate from office
on account of race, blocked further appointments of blacks to high
judicial office, and has, with audacity, politicized the judiciary.

Africans have no confidence in the judicial system. They can hardly
acquire state lands. Lands leased to blacks are being seized.

Black-owned enterprises are virtually excluded from business,
commerce and government contracts. Their towns and villages are being
impoverished into subjugation. Africans are treated like "Tutsis"
as the PPP ethnic cabal attempts to recycle history.

The PPP has become so entrenched in State-power and control of the
political society, that it has cannily shifted enforcement of its
ensconced philosophy of "Apan Jhaat" (vote for your own race) from
the ballot box to the politics of demographic engineering, so as to
gerrymander the nation into an ethno-political sanctuary.

Since 2004, the PPP has been distributing housing in and resettling
ethnic supporters from areas of overwhelming concentration to or
surrounding, black enclaves. This population reengineering is designed
to offset constitutional changes to the formula for the allocation
of parliamentary and regional council seats, as can be gleaned from
the 2001 general election results.

Further, faceless gangs, like the "Phantom death squad," with
alleged ties to government operatives, have verifiably executed well
over 400 young black men, with impunity. Like the Ottoman Empire ,
there has been no investigation of these murders. The government,
in 2005, obdurately blocked a US forced Commission of Inquiry from
investigating these killings. It restricted its terms to inquiring
only whether then Minister of National Security, Ronald Gajraj,
was involved in extra-judicial killings.

Nevertheless, the Commission established a relationship between Gajraj
and an operative of the "Phantom death squad." Gajraj was forced to
resign after the US threatened to review aid t o Guyana .

The government’s intransigence still rings like a guilty verdict.

Moreover, secret KGB-like agents comb through black villages,
identifying youngsters of a radical pedigree, whom they classify as
"criminals." Many subsequently turn up dead; their bullet riddled
cadavers litter streets, trenches and swamps. This is a new normalcy.

Others are unjustly, without evidence, tagged with unsolved crimes
and classified as "wanted."

The army and police are then coerced to, without probable cause or
warrant of a court, break-in their homes and gun them down in cold
blood, in the presence of their wives and children. What is even
more horrific is that women with children are killed in the process,
with impunity, and labeled collateral damage.

A particular demographic of these young men are undeniably subjected
to domestic rendition and torture. They are rendered to the backlands
of certain enclaves and to military camps, where they are tortured
about presumed knowledge of weapon stockpiles and the existence of
a resistance force.

In an article in the Stabroek newspaper on November 9, 2007, titled
"Police did not torture Buxtonians," Police Commissioner, Henry
Green, is reporting as saying, "The police had nothing to do with the
beating of Patrick Sumner and Victor Jones and that it was members
of the Guyana Defence Force (GDF) who had tortured the men." This is
a stunning admission from a Police Commissioner, whose US visa has
allegedly been revoked.

On November 28, 2007, the Stabroek newspaper, in an editorial titled
"Common enemies of all mankind," declared "If the allegations that
Patrick Sumner, Victor Jones and David Leander were tortured can
be proven, some members of the Guyana Police Force and the Guyana
Defence Force are likely to be in big trouble. Patrick Sumner and
Victor Jones were arrested by members of the police and defence forces
during Operation Ferret last September. They were taken to defence
headquarters in Camp Ayanganna , police headquarters in Eve Leary then
to another military camp where they said they were tortured. David
Leander, arrested later, met his attorney only after a successful
Habeas corpus application before a judge who, on seeing the victim’s
condition, ordered him to be taken to the hospital immediately."

The cruelty and inhumane treatment of Leander invoked, in Guyanese,
sentiments of the Abu Ghraib torture scandal in Iraq . The severity
of his burns and other injuries had rendered him so incapacitated,
that Justice Jainarayan Singh was, on November 2, 2007 forced to
leave his courtroom to see the victim in a vehicle in the court yard.

Justice Singh then ordered that he be taken to a hospital, where he was
admitted. There has been no official condemnation of or inquiry into
these tortures. The matter is expected to be taken to the International
Criminal Court and Inter-American Human Rights Commission.

I or no one else who expresses outrage at the denial of social justice
and human rights, in Guyana , condone criminal conduct.

However, there are settled procedures enshrined in law which apply
to persons who engage in criminal conduct, to which the State must
conform. It is appalling that Caricom, the EU and the American,
British and Canadian (ABC) Ambassadors remain silent in the face of
such terrorism.

The Caribbean and the international community must know that the PPP
regime has an insidious "noose" around the necks of African Guyanese,
and that their Villages and towns are under subjugation. The historic
African village of Buxton has become Guyana’s "crystal night" and
Jena, Louisiana . Police/army extra-judicial killings and executions
by the "Phantom persecutors of persons" death squad, have become
indistinguishable.

This deluge of massacre and mayhem bring fountains of blood flowing
daily into the streets of Buxton. Beleaguered villagers go to sleep at
nights with images of terror and the haunting words of poet, Martin
Carter’s "This is the dark time, my love," indelibly splattered on
their subliminal minds. It is their clarion cry:

"This is the dark time, my love. It is the season of oppression, dark
metal, and tears. It is the festival of guns, the carnival of misery.

Everywhere the faces of men are strained and anxious. Who comes
walking in the dark night time? Whose boot of steel tramps down the
slender grass? It is the man of death, my love, the stranger invader."

Recently, Ambassador Ronald Austin, a distinguished foreign
policy expert and former Ambassador to China , in an article titled
"Genocide," characterized the systematic execution of young black men
in Guyana as a silent genocide. This should not pass for a fleeting
exaggeration. Who has another explanation?

The atrocities of the "Middle Passage," " Crystal Night," Armenia ,
Rwanda , the Balkans and Darfur were iniquitous manifestations of hate,
an insidious brand of which is symptomatic of the hate that inspires
ethnic exclusion and demographic engineering in Guyana today. A mutual
dynamic of the atrocities that have imperiled civilization was the
attempt to kill new generations by executing men. Is history being
recycled in Guyana? The answer is menacing.

As the nefarious designs of the PPP hegemony throbs the subconscious,
it must invoke pulses of outrage and revive lessons leant from
history. As we hear faint cries for freedom betwixt the ballyhoo of
the "festival of guns" in Buxton, it must summon-up our revolutionary
passions as a people, and rekindle the spirit of resistance and
resilience bequeathed to us by our indomitable ancestors.

The blueprints for such struggles are indelibly etched in our
history. They are fundamental lessons which we must learn if we are
to survive the reinvention of the Middle Passage, Crystal Night,
Armenia , Rwanda , the Balkans and Darfur .

Freedom loving people of Guyana , the Caribbean and the world must
resolve to join forces to wage war on torture, bloodshed and ethnic
cleansing in Guyana and fight to preserve the right to be African. .

http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/news-4932–6-

Armrosgasprom: Armenia Again Receives Natural Gas From Russia

ARMROSGASPROM: ARMENIA AGAIN RECEIVES NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA

ARKA News Agency
Dec 11 2007
Armenia

YEREVAN, December 11. /ARKA/. Gas supply to Armenia is restored. It
was stopped last Saturday because of scheduled repair-and-renewal
operations on the gas-main pipeline Caucasus-Transcaucasia.

"The natural gas supply to Armenia was fully restored yesterday
at 23.00 by local time," the press service of "ArmRosgasprom,"
monopolist in the field of natural gas supply and distribution in
Armenia, told ARKA.

According to the press service data, unlimited gas supply of Armenian
consumers was implemented through the reserves of Abovyan underground
gas storage.

Abovyan underground gas storage is one of the main elements of gas
and transport system (GTS) of Armenia, providing the country’s energy
security. It was founded in 1962 in the deposition of rock salts at a
depth of 800-1000 meters, and today it allows reserving about 110mln
cubic meters of gas.

In case of failure of the GTS the station, depending on the season,
is able to provide fuel to the most important consumers within
1-1.5 months.

The ArmRosgasprom is a monopolist in importing and distributing
Russian natural gas to Armenia. Gas is transported to Armenia
through Georgia. The Company was founded in 1997, its shareholders
are "GasProm" OJSC (57.59%), the RA Ministry of Energy and GasProm
(34.7%) and the Itera oil company (7.71%). Annually Armenia receives
1.8-2bln of cubic meters of natural gas to Armenia.

Hrant Dink Posthumously Named World Press Freedom Hero

HRANT DINK POSTHUMOUSLY NAMED WORLD PRESS FREEDOM HERO

PanARMENIAN.Net
11.12.2007 17:19 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Executive Board of the International Press
Institute (IPI), the global network of editors, media executives and
leading journalists, has named Hrant Dink, former editor-in-chief
of the bilingual Turkish-Armenian weekly Agos, as one of its World
Press Freedom Heroes.

"Hrant Dink’s nomination as our 52nd World Press Freedom Hero is a
tribute to his bravery, but also an acknowledgement of his significant
contribution to freedom of expression and press freedom in Turkey,"
IPI Director Johann P. Fritz said, IPI press unit reports.

The IPI award was formally handed over to his widow, Rakel Dink, on 10
December in Vienna. "The murder of Hrant Dink deprived Turkey of one
of its most courageous and independent voices and it was a terrible
event for Turkish press freedom in general," Fritz said. "Hrant Dink
is one of at least 91 journalists murdered so far in 2007. In most
cases, these murders occurred with impunity. We call on governments
around the world to ensure that those responsible for these heinous
crimes are brought to justice."

Dink, a well-known Turkish-Armenian editor and columnist, was murdered
in Istanbul on 19 January 2007. He had received numerous death threats
from Turkish nationalists who viewed his journalism as treacherous.

Dink was shot twice in the head and once in the neck by a Turkish
nationalist outside the offices of the newspaper he founded in 1996. He
had faced legal problems for denigrating "Turkishness" under Article
301 of the Turkish Penal Code in his articles about the massacre of
Armenians during the First World War.

In July 2006, he lost an appeal over a suspended six-month prison
sentence handed down for violating Article 301. His prosecution stemmed
from an article in 2004 about the 1915-17 massacres of Armenians
under the Ottoman Empire. Aside from this criminal case, Dink was
also facing prosecution for a second article condemning his conviction.

Born on 15 September 1954, Dink was best-known for reporting on human
and minority rights in Turkey and for advocating Turkish-Armenian
reconciliation. In a February 2006 interview, he said he hoped his
reporting would pave the way for peace between the two peoples. "I
want to write and ask how we can change this historical conflict into
peace," he said.

At his funeral on 23 January, 100,000 people marched in protest at
his assassination, chanting, "We are all Armenians" and "We are all
Hrant Dink." Since his death, calls for the repeal of Article 301
have become increasingly vocal.

The Dink murder trial opened in Istanbul on 2 July. 18 people were
charged in connection with his assassination.

Nork Infectious Hospital Being Repaired With Financing Of Hayastan A

NORK INFECTIOUS HOSPITAL BEING REPAIRED WITH FINANCING OF HAYASTAN ALL-ARMENIAN FUND’S BRAZILIAN LOCAL STRUCTURE

Noyan Tapan
Dec 10 2007

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 10, NOYAN TAPAN. The second annex of the Nork
Infectious Hospital is being repaired with the financing of the
Brazilian local structure of the Hayastan All-Armenian Fund. The
repairs of the third floor of the second annex, as well as the
construction of the boiler-house are underway. As Noyan Tapan was
informed by the Fund’s Public Relations Department, the work will
be finished at the end of this year. The Fund has put into operation
the fourth floor of the second annex lately. Besides, the roof of the
annex has been repaired, a heating system has been built, new doors
and windows have been placed.

The program’s total cost is 58m drams (more than 190 thousand dollars).

Armenian President To Visit United Arab Emirates

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT TO VISIT UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

PanARMENIAN.Net
10.12.2007 14:19 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ December 11-13, Armenian President Robert Kocharian
will be visiting the United Arab Emirates, the RA leader’s press
office reported.

The Armenian delegation will include Vartan Oskanian, the Minister of
Foreign Affairs, Nerses Yeritsyan, the Minister of Trade and Economic
Development, Armen Gevorgyan, Head of the President’s Administration,
Gagik Chachatryan, Deputy Head of the State Customs Committee, and
other officials.

December 12, Mr Kocharian will meet with UAE President, Sheikh Khalifa
bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid
Al Maktoum.

He will take part in the opening ceremony of the new building of the
Armenian Embassy and meet with the local Armenian community.

In the course of the visit the President will sign a number of
agreements on cooperation.

December 13, he will make for Ras Al-Khaimah.

Turkish Diplomat: Karabakh Problem Close To Us

TURKISH DIPLOMAT: KARABAKH PROBLEM CLOSE TO US

PanARMENIAN.Net
10.12.2007 14:33 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ "The Nagorno Karabakh conflict is an acute problem
for Turkey," Turkish Ambassador to Azerbaijan Huseyn Avni Karslioglu
said at a winter session of the Azerbaijan-NATO International School.

"This problem is very close to us and we would like to discuss it at
the winter session," he said.

According to the diplomat, "Azerbaijan has good potential for new
projects," Trend reports.

Registration And Enregistration

REGISTRATION AND ENREGISTRATION

KarabakhOpen
05-12-2007 11:08:35

In the latest question and answer session of the parliament the
head of the Democratic faction Vahram Atanesyan voiced concern that
on a few days before the presidential election 20 people had been
registered in two villages of Kashatagh, which affected the outcome
of the voting. In addition, it was done on the instruction of the
chief of the police of the region.

The chief of the NKR Police Arshavir Gharamyan promised to address
to it.

The fact has not been addressed duly, however. Instead, information
was stated from the rostrum of the National Assembly about which
the independent media voiced concern during both the local and
presidential elections.

People were registered to immediately include them in the voters’
register. Then almost hundred percent results were released. Whom
are we cheating? The international community does not recognize our
elections anyway. Are we cheating ourselves?

Karabakh Peace Process Close to Breakdown

Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Dec 6 2007

Karabakh Peace Process Close to Breakdown
Last chance for two presidents to agree to framework document before
February.

By Thomas de Waal in London (CRS No. 422 06-Dec-07)

As the year 2007 slips away, hope is fading for a framework agreement
on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, and there are fears that the peace
process may collapse altogether next year.

The deadlock coincides with the suspension of ceasefire monitoring
along the long line of trenches that divides Armenian and Azerbaijani
forces around Karabakh, and increased warnings that the dispute- in
which fighting was halted in 1994 – might once again lead to open
conflict.

When the OSCE met in Madrid last week, the foreign ministers of
Armenia and Azerbaijan, Vardan Oskanian and Elmar Mammedyarov, held
talks with leading officials from the three countries that co-chair
the `Minsk Group’ which oversees negotiations.

Their meeting with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, French
foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and United States Under-Secretary
of State Nicholas Burns, was widely perceived as a last chance to
agree compromises on a two-or three-page document called `Basic
Principles’, which could then be signed by the presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan setting out the fundamental ideas they have worked on
over the last three years.

But with no agreement in sight and presidential elections due in both
Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2008, time is running out, leaving the
bleak prospect that the peace process will die next year.

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matt Bryza, who is one of the
three co-chairs of the Minsk Group, told IWPR in answers to written
questions that he and his two colleagues planned to travel to the
region in mid-January to try to bridge final differences between the
parties.

`The co-chairs hope the two presidents will reach an oral agreement
on this document prior to Armenian presidential elections in
February,’ said Bryza.

`The current set of ideas on the table provides the only logical and
practicable way to advance toward a peaceful settlement of the
conflict.’

The hope is that both sides in the dispute are playing brinkmanship,
and will ultimately agree to a deal. There are concerns, though, that
if they fail to do so, it will be hard to recover any momentum for
negotiations next year.

`Both sides seem to acknowledge that abandoning the negotiations,
even for a short period, could have dangerous consequences,’ said
Bryza. `When each president recognises he and his counterpart have
driven the quest for concessions to the limit, both presidents will
face a crucial choice – agree on the fair compromise on the table, or
start from scratch and risk devolution toward possible armed
conflict.’

Many believe that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are too
cautious to sign up to a document that would be labelled at home as
compromise with the enemy.

`Putting a signature on a framework document puts the presidents in
terra incognita,’ said one international official who follows the
negotiations, and who asked not to be named.

At the same time the situation on the 200-kilometre-long ceasefire
line that divides the two parties is unusually precarious. The `line
of contact’, as it is known, has no international peacekeepers along
it, and is monitored only by roving OSCE ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk
and five field assistants.

Around 30 soldiers have lost their lives in incidents on the line so
far this year.

Owing to a diplomatic dispute between the OSCE, Baku and the
unrecognised Nagorny Karabakh Republic, all ceasefire monitoring is
currently suspended.

The latest phase of negotiations, called the Prague Process, began
with a meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers
in the Czech capital in April 2004. The two presidents became more
heavily involved the following year.

Under discussion has been a phased plan in which Armenian forces
would withdraw from the Azerbaijani lands they currently occupy
outside Nagorny Karabakh. The most sensitive issue, the status of
Karabakh itself, would be deferred, with the territory gaining some
kind of interim international status.

More difficult points – including how the Karabakh’s status should
eventually be decided, and the nature and composition of security
forces in the territory – are not addressed by the framework
document, which is intended as a first step.

Even discussions on the Basic Principles have turned into a marathon,
with the principal sticking point reported to be the status of
Lachin, the Azerbaijani territory through which the road connecting
Nagorny Karabakh and Armenia runs. The Armenians are reluctant to
cede a strip of land that they say is a strategic corridor.

Both sides say they have red lines they do not wish to cross.

In written comments to IWPR, Azerbaijani foreign minister Mammadyarov
said, `Azerbaijan has clearly defined and presented its position,
with options and limits and we hope that the Armenian side will
realistically assess the ongoing processes in the world and in the
region, and will withdraw her troops from the occupied territories of
Azerbaijan.’

Armenian foreign minister Oskanian stressed his side’s concerns,
telling IWPR, `Of course security is the number one issue. Security
concerns are what gave rise to the [Karabakh Armenian]
self-determination movement in the first place. Security will depend
on how strongly the status of Nagorny Karabakh and the status of
Lachin as a corridor are codified in the agreement.’

The enduring deep distrust between the two parties remains a
fundamental obstacle.

Over the last year, officials from Azerbaijan, which is growing in
confidence both economically and diplomatically, have said frequently
that their `patience is running out’ and they are considering the
military option.

On October 30, President Ilham Aliev said, `We should be ready to
liberate the occupied territories by military means at any moment.’

Aliev has said that his oil-rich country’s fast-growing defence
budget, which now stands at more than one billion dollars, should
increase to a point where it exceeds Armenia’s entire annual budget.

On November 27, speaking at a meeting of defence chiefs from
post-Soviet states, Azerbaijani defence minister Safar Abiev said,
"As long as Azerbaijani territory is occupied by Armenia, the chance
of war is close to 100 per cent."

This kind of talk has provoked an angry response from the Armenians.

`The Armenian concerns are not about the agreement, on which there is
more on which we agree than disagree,’ said Foreign Minister
Oskanian. `The Armenian concerns are about what is going on in
parallel – militaristic calls from Azerbaijan, increased levels of
hate propaganda within Azerbaijan, and aggressive efforts to derail
the talks.’

Asked to comment on this, Mammadyarov said, `Azerbaijan is very much
in favour of a peaceful resolution of the conflict and we will use
all and every opportunity not to engage in violence. But the
Azerbaijani public’s patience is running out, and given our good
economic performance, there are more and more calls on the government
of Azerbaijan to restore the territorial integrity of the country.’

Most independent experts say war is not immediately imminent, but the
risk is growing as the sides remain intransigent and Azerbaijan’s oil
revenues move towards a peak.

`There is a real and increasing danger of conflict in the coming
years," said Magdalena Frichova of the International Crisis Group,
which recently released a report entitled Risking War. "By about 2012
– after which Azerbaijan’s oil revenue is expected to decline – a
military adventure may be a good way for Baku to distract citizens
from economic disappointment and government failures.’

Alexander Iskandarian, director of the Caucasus Media Institute in
Yerevan, said no breakthrough is to be expected, because there is not
sufficient political will in either country to cut a deal.

`The death of the Prague Process was imminent from the day it was
born,’ said Iskandarian. `Its birth came as an attempt to revive the
Minsk process, which had been dead from about 2001 or even earlier.
Why it died is obvious to me – resistance from inside these societies
to resolution efforts is stronger than the pressure from outside.’

`I don’t think the Prague Process will die a legal death, as it does
not bother anyone very much, but it won’t solve the conflict. The
conflict will be solved when the parties in conflict want it, not the
mediators. At the moment, the parties have no such will.’

Thomas de Waal is IWPR’s Caucasus Editor.

Dora the subject of exploratory talks

Liverpool Leader (Australia)
December 5, 2007 Wednesday

Dora the subject of exploratory talks

ABOUT 13 children from Assyrian, Italian, Anglo-Celtic and Armenian
background met Rose Torossian recently at the Armenian Club,
Bonnyrigg.

Ms Torossian, who hopes to have a family of her own in the future,
said she asked them about Dora the Explorer.

”They answered ‘yes’ and asked me if I knew her,” she said.

”I said, ‘I watch Dora on television all the time with my niece and
nephew.’

”I said, ‘who wants to be in the picture with Aunty Rose?’

”Some of them replied ‘me’. One girl said ‘I’ve seen your photo
everywhere’. ” Ms Torossian was the Liberal candidate for the seat
of Fowler, where sitting Labor MP Julia Irwin was re-elected.