THE ARMENIAN LANDSCAPE IN THE LEAD-UP TO ELECTIONS
by Andranik Migranian
Translated by Elena Leonova
Source: Trud, No. 46, March 21, 2007, EV
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
March 21, 2007 Wednesday
An overview of upcoming election campaigns in Armenia; Armenia,
Russia’s most important strategic ally in the Caucasus, has moved
into a major electoral cycle. It will hold a parliamentary election
this May and a presidential election in March 2008. Armenia will spend
practically the whole year in a continual election campaign process.
Armenia, Russia’s most important strategic ally in the Caucasus,
has moved into a major electoral cycle. It will hold a parliamentary
election this May and a presidential election in March 2008. Armenia
will spend practically the whole year in a continual election campaign
process. The Armenian Central Electoral Commission has already
registered 27 parties and one election bloc calling itself Impeachment.
At present, the majority in parliament is held by the Armenian
Republican Party (ARP), with the prime minister as its leader. The
ARP Council is chaired by Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, whom many
observers regard as the strongest contender in the next presidential
election. ARP members include the overwhelming majority of government
ministers and regional leaders, and a great many state officials at
the national and regional level. The ARP has the greatest amount of
administrative, media, and financial resources for election campaigns.
The ARP promotes liberal economic policies, but positions itself as
a conservative party across a range of other issues: supporting a
strong state, respect for traditions, the Church, and the family.
Opinions of the ARP’s achievements vary, but it’s undeniable that
Armenia’s economic growth has reached double digits in recent years –
surely an argument in the party’s favor. An equally important argument
is that domestic political stability has been maintained in Armenia.
The next party with a direct link to the incumbent administration is
called Prosperous Armenia, headed by oligarch Gagik Tsarukian. This
party’s candidates are members of the intelligentsia: university
professors, school principals, teachers. Prosperous Armenia aims to
attract voters who don’t support the ARP; it is campaigning for more
radical transformations and social justice principles.
Prosperous Armenia possesses substantial financial and media resources,
and even administrative resources to some extent, given that it
has the support of the president himself. But it lacks a network of
regional branches.
The battle for leadership between these two administration-backed
parties may be the chief focus of suspense in the upcoming election.
The pro-government coalition includes two other parties. The
Dashnaktsutiun party, with a niche of its own, could get up to 8-10%
of the vote and win representation in parliament. The United Labor
Party also has a chance of making it into parliament.
Among the newer parties, the one with the most public support is led
by Tigran Karapetian, well-known in Armenia due to his own television
channel and his focus on low income groups. He is supported by some
leaders of the Law-Abiding Country party, which was part of the
previous ruling coalition when its leader, Artur Bagdasarian, was
prime minister. After Law-Abiding Country broke up and Bagdasarian
was dismissed, many of the party’s activists scattered among other
parties; some of them joined Karapetian, whose party also has a chance
of being represented in the next parliament.
One feature of the current election campaign is that the opposition
is deeply divided. It has also lost credibility due to practically
boycotting the parliament, lacking substantial access to the media,
and failing to organize publicity measures.
The divided opposition has lost its luster in the eyes of voters,
along with any hope that it might become a real force capable of
changing the existing state of affairs. Average Armenians don’t want
fantasies or promises; they are more focused on the real authorities,
real opportunities, and real resources.
The Armenians lacked a state of their own for most of the past
millennium, and learned to be self-reliant in order to survive.
Consequently, they aren’t overly enthusiastic about getting involved
in the political process with the aim of solving social and economic
problems. They believe that such problems are more likely to be
solved by individuals or unofficial organizations, not by means of
political battles.
Moreover, the opposition parties are more strongly identified with
their leaders rather than widely-known policy programs.
The most noteworthy of the irreconcilable opposition forces is the
People’s Party of Armenia, led by Stepan Demirchian. Widespread
support for Demirchian is largely due to many voters identifying him
with his late father – Karen Demirchian, a popular Armenian leader in
the Soviet era. But this factor is weakening with the passage of time.
Artashes Gegamian is a more colorful public politician who knows how
to play the electorate’s heart-strings, but he has also lost much of
his former influence on the public, although he still has some chance
of making it into parliament.
Artur Bagdasarian also has a serious problem. He is very well-known
as an individual, having been a speaker of the parliament, and has a
fairly high approval rating. He has mastered the art of communicating
with voters and knows how to address the people’s most acute and
painful problems, resorting to populist moves or even demagoguery.
Unfortunately, his party and parliamentary faction have fallen
apart and his leading allies have abandoned him. Bagdasarian and his
remaining supporters now lack administrative resources, financial
resources, and media resources. Although they are actively seeking
support from the West, their chances of making it into the next
parliament are uncertain.
All the other parties are essentially fringe parties at present. That
applies to the Impeachment bloc, which includes some leaders of the
erstwhile ruling party, the Armenian National movement. It also applies
to the Legacy party, led by Raffi Ovannisian, a former foreign affairs
minister and a former US citizen who now holds Armenian citizenship.
It is extremely important that the forthcoming elections should be fair
and transparent. Even so, no matter the outcome, the losing parties are
sure to accuse the authorities of fraud and abuse of administrative
resources. The authorities and the general public should be prepared
for that, ensuring that plenty of objective observers are present at
the elections.