Death, courtesy of excesses of the rich

Daily Nation , Kenya
May 27 2007

Death, courtesy of excesses of the rich

Story by MWENDE MWINZI
Publication Date: 2007/05/27

Before he dropped him through the trapdoor that completed his hanging
act, George W. Bush had nuked Saddam Hussein several times in his
head. `F— Saddam; we’re taking him out,’ he had gallantly announced
during a Senate Republican policy launch in March 2002 – a whole year
before the US invasion of oil-rich Iraq.

The tyrant, as he referred to him some months later at the Cincinnati
Museum Centre, was `a homicidal dictator addicted to weapons of mass
destruction’ — one who, if not stopped, `would be eager to use
biological or chemical, or a nuclear weapon’ against America.

When he was later convicted by the court for `crimes against
humanity’ and handed the death sentence, George Bush (privately
popping champagne) celebrated publicly. The verdict, after all, was a
`landmark event in the history of Iraq”.

But what precisely are `crimes against humanity’ and might these not
one day come back to haunt America? Or at least `George Dubya?’

By definition, such crimes comprise acts of persecution or atrocity
against any body of people. They are, according to the Rome Statute
Explanatory Memorandum, `particularly odious offences in that they
constitute a serious attack on human dignity or grave humiliation or
a degradation of one or more human beings.

They are not isolated or sporadic events, but are part either of a
government policy (although the perpetrators need not identify
themselves with this policy) or of a wide practice of atrocities
tolerated or condoned by a government or a de facto authority.’

Okay, so based on this, you’ve got the Ottoman Government (for the
forcible deportation and massacring of over a million Armenians from
1915 to 1917), the South African apartheid government, Saddam Hussein
(for killing 148 people in Dujail following the assassination attempt
on him in 1982) and a few others all based on the past. But what of
the future and what of George Bush?

If you think this is radical, you are right. It is. But it is not
about Iraq though that, too, could be argued. It is about Africa, her
development and her possible demise. My eyes are on green. And very
simply here is why.

Last week and in the middle of the hot talks on global heat, the
United States, it was revealed, was waging war yet again; no – not
with Iran. With the G-8 — the Group of Eight planning talks on
global warming next month.

Washington, says Reuters, `wants references taken out to the urgency
of the climate crisis and the need for a UN conference in Bali in
December to open talks on a new global deal.’

The information, made available through a leaked draft of the final
communiqué, points to the American support of the deletion of the
paragraph, `We firmly agree that resolute and concerted international
action is urgently needed in order to reduce global greenhouse gas
emissions and sustain our common basis of living.’

The US, instead, wants the watered down statement `Addressing climate
change is a long-term issue that will require global participation
and a diversity of approaches to take into account differing
circumstances.’

The US has long fought this issue, even pulling out of the Kyoto
Protocol so this position is not surprising. Yet it remains dangerous
nonetheless. Though it covers just about five per cent of the world’s
land mass and represents approximately five per cent of the world’s
population, the US produces an estimated 26 per cent of the world’s
greenhouse gas emissions. Its impact on us is grave.

With about 70 per cent of Africans being dependent on rain-fed,
small-scale agriculture, global warming and poverty are inextricably
linked. Poverty cannot be solved without considering environmental
issues and climatic shifts. The two feed off one another.

Africans depend heavily on trees and crop waste for firewood and
energy (think deforestation and fire emissions) and they also spend
an inordinate time acquiring water (think women and children) when
they could be, for instance, going to school or being otherwise
productive.

With positions such as that of Bush (most Americans do not support
this) and with the rest of the world (including in Africa itself)
only mildly appreciating its dangers, global warming threatens our
future survival.

And Africa, though she emits far less carbon than other continents,
will suffer the most.

As you read this, there has been an increase in unpredictable
weather, unusual crop pests, malaria and other mosquito-borne
diseases including the Mediterrenean’s dengue and West Nile Virus.
There is also the visible reduction (some say by 50 per cent) of our
coral reefs and the over 80 per cent shrinkage of Mt Kilimanjaro’s
ice cap since the year 1900.

If you think that is bad, keep your britches on. Scientists predict a
minimum temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Centigrade in Africa by
2030, meaning a rise in sea level, more violent weather, more
diseases, food and water insecurity and, of course, more deaths. So
why, despite this knowledge, is the US still rejecting the
increasingly subscribed to Kyoto Protocol?

Like terrorism, global warming is an issue in which every nation has
a stake. Yet George Bush – as he has done consistently with his
foreign policy — does not care. Or so it seems. Big American
business comes first. Everything else, including the lives and future
of Africa’s children, are an after-thought.

So why should, as the Economist asked in its May 10, 2007 edition,
`the poorest die for the continued excesses of the richest?’ And at
what point do such positions convert to crimes against humanity?

After the 2008 presidential elections in the US, George Bush will
make an exit much more elegant than Saddam’s. But will that be the
end of him? It is possible. But as it would be, climate changes are
not the only shift occurring in the globe. There is power as well.
And this someday might not be so forgiving of Bush, his negligence
and his policies of omission.

Co-Chairmen Of Minsk Group Visiting Armenia

CO-CHAIRMEN OF MINSK GROUP VISITING ARMENIA

ITAR-TASS, Russia
May 23 2007

YEREVAN, May 23 (Itar-Tass) – The co-chairmen of the Minsk Group on
Nagorno-Karabakh have arrived in Yerevan to look for ways of conflict
settlement. The representatives of Russia and France, Yuri Mezlyakov
and Bernard Fassier, met on Wednesday with Armenian Foreign Minister
Vartan Oskanyan.

"An accent was made on so far unsettled principles of Karabakh
settlement," a spokesman at the Foreign Ministry’s information
department told. The sides also discussed a "calendar of future
meetings".

The co-chairmen will hear out stances of the sides and discuss a
possibility for holding a next meetin of the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents.

The co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, who represent Russia,
France and the US, as well as an aide to the OSCE chairman attended
the meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers.

The co-chairmen proposed to the sides ideas for examination, the
communique of the Belgrade meeting said.

If Congress Adopts Resolution On Genocide, Turks’ Look At Armenians

IF CONGRESS ADOPTS RESOLUTION ON GENOCIDE, TURKS’ LOOK AT ARMENIANS WILL SCOWL, AMERICAN LAWYER CONSIDERS

Noyan Tapan
May 22 2007

WASHINGTON, MAY 22, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. Founder of Future
Without Terrorism research center, lawyer Ken Ballen stated that
adoption of the resolution on Armenian Genocide in U.S. Congress will
damage both efforts of reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia and
the interests of U.S.

During one of discussions organized in U.S. Congress Ken Ballen
presented the results of sociological surveys held in Turkey, according
to which the majority of the respondents is against adoption of the
resolution on Armenian Genocide in Congress. The participants of the
survey spoke for Turkey’s stopping assistance provided to U.S. during
Iraqi operations in case of resolution’s adoption. "If that bill is
adopted by the Congress, the Turks’ look at Armenians will scowl,"
Ballen said adding that in this case the majority of Turks will
boycott goods of American production.

To recap, the sociological survey was held from January 27 to February
8, 2007, by Future Without Terrorism research center and with the
assistance of Clinton Global Initiative. 1021 persons having turned
18 were interrogated during the survey.

Serge Sargsyan Leaves For Yalta

SERGE SARGSYAN LEAVES FOR YALTA

A1+
[03:47 pm] 23 May, 2007

The Armenian delegation headed by RoA Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan
leaves for Ukraine on May 24 to take part in the session of the
Council of Heads of Governments of CIS-member states.

The key issues of the discussion will be cooperation between CIS member
states, common energy market establishment, combat against false drug
circulation, 2008-2010 criminality and abdication, collaboration in
the fields of physical training and sports, agreements on technical
insurance, prevention of bird flue penetration into CIS-member states,
as well as educational and financial issues.

At the end of the session the Heads of Governments will hold a joint
press conference.

Archbishop Anania Arabajian Announced Unfrocked

ARCHBISHOP ANANIA ARABAJIAN ANNOUNCED UNFROCKED

Noyan Tapan
May 22 2007

ETCHMIADZIN, MAY 22, NOYAN TAPAN – ARMENIANS TODAY. By the patriarchal
order of His Holiness Karekin II Catholicos of All Armenia, Archbishop
Anania Arabajian, monk of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin was
announced unfrocked.

As Noyan Tapan was informed by the Information Services of the Mother
See of Holy Etchmiadzin, Archbishop Anania’s appeal became the basis
for making the patriarchal decision.

The Archbishop announced unfrocked will from now on be classified
among laymen and will be called after the font: Avetik Arabajian.

Wrong Way On Reparations

WRONG WAY ON REPARATIONS
By Ed Feulner

Washington Times, DC
May 21 2007

The United States motto is written on most of our money: E Pluribus
Unum, "out of many, one." But if Congress has its way, plenty of
our dollars will be spent to separate Americans into ethnic groups
instead of bringing us together as one people.

The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the "Guam World
War II Loyalty Recognition Act" May 8 and didn’t seem to consider it
controversial. The bill breezed through by a wide, 288-133, margin
and didn’t even undergo the usual debate; lawmakers voted to suspend
the rules so it could pass swiftly.

But this bill should not have been noncontroversial. This is no
mere measure to rename a Post Office or federal building. If this act
becomes law, it would require the Treasury secretary to pay reparations
to "Guam residents who were killed, raped, injured, interned, or
subjected to forced labor or marches," as well as to "survivors of
compensable residents who died in war or survivors of compensable
injured residents." The bill could cost taxpayers $126 million.

There are several things wrong with this picture. First, it wasn’t
the United States that abused the people of Guam. Imperial Japanese
troops occupied the island in 1941 (immediately after they attacked
Pearl Harbor) and held it for more than three years. As elsewhere,
the Japanese invaders treated the population cruelly.

Guam’s congressional delegate, Madeleine Bordallo, ignored that
history as she tried to explain why the bill was necessary. "There
is a moral obligation on the part of our national government to pay
compensation for war damages in order to insure to the extent possible
that no single individual or group of individuals bears more than a
just part of the overall burden of war," she told the House.

But the U.S. bears no blame here, and no responsibility. We fought to
prevent the island from being taken by the Japanese, and fought to
free it again. Some 3,000 Americans were killed and more than 7,000
wounded in the 1944 battle for the island. That’s a price paid in
blood that can never be made up with mere dollars.

Besides, World War II ended 62 years ago. And that brings up another
critical point: If the U.S. is supposed to make restitution to people
harmed decades ago by one of our (then) enemies, where do we stop?

Residents of the Philippines could demand handouts, since that
country was also under U.S. protection before being captured by the
Japanese. Korea and China could also make a case, since they also
all suffered from Japanese domination.

And that’s just Asia. Nazi Germany was equally cruel to residents
of the countries it occupied. We certainly can’t afford to make
restitution to everyone in Eastern Europe. Yet we would likely have
to, since it would be difficult to find a religious or ethnic group
that didn’t suffer during World War II.

But things wouldn’t stop there. Once you’re on a slippery slope,
it’s difficult to stop. We might find ourselves making payments to
the survivors of Bosnian Muslims killed by Serbs during the 1990s,
the descendants of Armenians killed by Greeks during World War I,
and certainly the descendants of African-Americans brought to this
country as slaves.

The Guam bill is little more than a reparations foot in the door.

If it succeeds, we can expect a flood of similar complaints from all
corners of the globe. The United States, a country that has fought so
hard to spread freedom around the world — and is still fighting to
protect newly won freedom in Iraq and Afghanistan — would be forced
to pay reparations as if we were a human-rights abusing rogue nation.

Our country is unique because it opens its arms to immigrants from
everywhere and gives them the chance to become citizens. If we start
allowing ethnic groups to make claims on the Treasury because of
where they were born, we’ll quickly lose the unity that makes our
nation work.

We simply can’t afford the "Guam World War II Loyalty Recognition Act."

Ed Feulner is president of the Heritage Foundation.

Killer Safarov Will Probably Be Taken To Azerbaijan

KILLER SAFAROV WILL PROBABLY BE TAKEN TO AZERBAIJAN
By Aghavni Haroutiunian

AZG Armenian Daily
22/05/2007

Safarov Trial

Azerbaijani army officer Ramil Safarov, who was sentenced to life
in Hungarian prison for murdering the Armenian Lt Gurgen Margarian,
would probably be taken to Azerbaijan, Foreign Minister of Hungary
Kinga Goncz announced during his official visit to Baku, according
to Azerbaijani media. Kinga Goncz informed that the issue had been
discussed with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov. "The
extradition can be debated only after the trial is over", mentioned
Foreign Minister of Hungary.

Safarov’s issue will be discussed also during the official visit of
Azerbaijani Minister of Inner Affairs to Hungary.

Exclusive: Secret US plot to kill Al-Sadr

Exclusive: Secret US plot to kill Al-Sadr
By Patrick Cockburn In Baghdad

The Independent/UK
Published: 21 May 2007

The US Army tried to kill or capture Muqtada al-Sadr, the widely
revered Shia cleric, after luring him to peace negotiations at a house
in the holy city of Najaf, which it then attacked, according to a
senior Iraqi government official.

The revelation of this extraordinary plot, which would probably have
provoked an uprising by outraged Shia if it had succeeded, has left a
legacy of bitter distrust in the mind of Mr Sadr for which the US and
its allies in Iraq may still be paying. "I believe that particular
incident made Muqtada lose any confidence or trust in the [US-led]
coalition and made him really wild," the Iraqi National Security
Adviser Dr Mowaffaq Rubai’e told The Independent in an interview. It
is not known who gave the orders for the attempt on Mr Sadr but it is
one of a series of ill-considered and politically explosive US actions
in Iraq since the invasion. In January this year a US helicopter
assault team tried to kidnap two senior Iranian security officials on
an official visit to the Iraqi President. Earlier examples of highly
provocative actions carried out by the US with

little thought for the consequences include the dissolution of the
Iraqi army and the Baath party.

The attempted assassination or abduction took place two-and-a-half
years ago in August 2004 when Mr Sadr and his Mehdi Army militiamen
were besieged by US Marines in Najaf, south of Baghdad.

Dr Rubai’e believes that his mediation efforts – about which he had
given the US embassy, the American military command and the Iraqi
government in Baghdad full details – were used as an elaborate set-up
to entice the Shia leader to a place where he could be trapped.

Mr Sadr emerged as the leader of the Sadrist movement in Baghdad at
the time of the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. It had been founded by
his father, also a cleric, who had confronted Saddam’s regime in the
1990s and had been murdered by his agents in 1999. Its blend of
nationalism, religion and populism proved highly attractive to Iraqi
Shia, particularly to the very poor.

Although Mr Sadr escaped with his life at the last moment, the
incident helps explain why he disappeared from view in Iraq when
President George Bush stepped up confrontation with him and his Mehdi
Army militia in January.

Dr Rubai’e said: "I know him very well and I think his suspicion and
distrust of the coalition and any foreigner is really deep-rooted,"
and dates from what happened in Najaf. He notes that after it had
happened Mr Sadr occupied the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf as a place
of refuge. Dr Rubai’e had gone to Najaf in August 2004 to try to
mediate an end to the fighting. He met Mr Sadr who agreed to a set of
conditions to end the crisis. "He actually signed the agreement with
his own handwriting," said Dr Rubai’e. "He wanted the inner Najaf, the
old city, around the shrine to be treated like the Vatican."

Having returned to Baghdad to show the draft document to Iyad Allawi,
who was prime minister at the time, Dr Rubai’e went back to Najaf to
make a final agreement with Mr Sadr.

It was agreed that the last meeting would take place in the house in
Najaf of Muqtada’s father Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr who had been murdered
by Saddam’s gunmen with two of his sons five years before. Dr Rubai’e
and other mediators started for the house. As they did so they saw the
US Marines open up an intense bombardment of the house and US Special
Forces also heading for it. But the attack was a few minutes
premature. Mr Sadr was not yet in the house and managed to escape.

Although Dr Rubai’e, as Iraqi National Security Adviser since 2004 and
earlier a member of the Iraqi Governing Council, is closely associated
with the American authorities in Baghdad, he has no doubt about what
happened.

He sees the negotiations as part of a charade to lure Mr Sadr, who is
normally very careful about his own security, to a house where he
could be eliminated.

"When I came back to Baghdad I was really, really infuriated, I can
tell you," Dr Rubai’e said. "I went berserk with both [the US
commander General George] Casey and the ambassador [John Negroponte]."
They denied that knew of a trap and said they would look into what
happened but he never received any explanation from them.

The US always felt deeply threatened by Mr Sadr because, unlike the
other Shia parties, he opposed the occupation and demanded that it
end.

There were two attempts to crush his movement in 2004, neither of
which was successful. The first, at the end of March, began with the
closure of his newspaper and the arrest of one of his close
advisers. A warrant for Mr Sadr’s own arrest was issued. A US general
said his only alternatives were to be killed or captured.

The US authorities appeared to have little understanding of the
reverence with which the Sadr family was regarded by many Iraqi Shia.

The crackdown provoked a reaction for which the US was
ill-prepared. The Mehdi Army, though poorly armed and untrained, took
over part of Baghdad and many Shia cities and towns in southern
Iraq. The US had to rush troops to embattled outposts.

A second crisis began in Najaf in August and this time the US and the
recently appointed government of Iyad Allawi appear to have decided to
smash Mr Sadr and his movement for ever. But they dared not assault
the shrine of Imam Ali, one of the holiest Shia shrines.

Other Shia parties suspected that once Mr Sadr was dealt with they
would be marginalised. The crisis was finally defused when Grand
Ayatollah Ali al- Sistani, after undergoing medical treatment in
London, returned to Najaf and negotiated an agreement with Mr Sadr
under which he withdrew but did not disarm his forces.

The attempt to kill or imprison Mr Sadr was first revealed by Dr
Rubai’e to Ali Allawi, the former Iraqi finance minister, who gives an
account of what happened in his recent book The Occupation of Iraq:
Winning the war, Losing the peace.

Dr Rubai’e said this weekend in Baghdad that he stands by his account
given there. He does not think the Americans were planning to kill him
along with Mr Sadr because he had a senior American officer with him
almost all the time.

Muqtada al-Sadr is one of the most extraordinary figures to emerge
during the war in Iraq,a pivotal figure leading a broad-based
political movement with a powerful military wing.

The appeal of the 33-year-old Shia cleric is both religious and
nationalist. He is regarded with devotion by millions. He is also a
survivor and an astute politician who has often out-manoeuvred his
opponents. The US and Britain have repeatedly underestimated the
strength of his support.

The al-Sadrs are one of the great Shia religious families. His
relative, Mohammed Baqir al-Sadr, was the founder of a politically
active Shia movement and was executed by Saddam Hussein in
1980. Muqtada’s father Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr in effect founded the
Sadrist movement in the 1990s. Finding he could not control him,
Saddam Hussein had him murdered with two of his sons in Najaf in 1999,
provoking widespread rioting.

To the surprise of all, the Sadrist movement re-emerged with Muqtada
at its head during the fall of the old regime. In April 2003 it took
over large parts of Shia Iraq. Its base was the vast Shia slum,
renamed Sadr City, that contains a third of the population of Baghdad.

The US and its Iraqi allies regarded Muqtada as a highly threatening
figure. Paul Bremer, the ill-fated US viceroy in Iraq after the
invasion, detested and unwisely under-rated the Sadrists. When he
moved against them in April 2004 he was astonished to see them take
over much of southern Shia Iraq in a few days. Muqtada took refuge in
Najaf.

There was a heavy fighting in August 2004 when the US made an all-out
effort to eliminate Muqtada and his movement. Once again he survived,
thanks to a compromise arranged by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

His movement became less confrontational. It took part in the
elections in 2005, winning 32 seats out of 275. The Mehdi Army was
viewed by the Sunni as an organisation of sectarian death squads.

The US began increasingly to confront the Sadrists. But they were an
essential support of the Iraqi government, making it difficult for the
US to move against them. When the reinforced US forces in Baghdad did
threaten the Mehdi Army, Muqtada simply sent his militiamen home, and
disappeared from view.

Drought finally ends for Eskandarian

Toronto Star, Canada
May 20 2007

Drought finally ends for Eskandarian

‘It felt good to get the goal,’ says TFC star of ending skid

May 20, 2007 04:30 AM
MORGAN CAMPBELL
SPORTS REPORTER

The father said he was still waiting for a goal.

The son made sure he didn’t wait long.

Not only was Alecko Eskandarian’s goal in the 44th minute yesterday
the energetic striker’s first goal for his new team, but it came
against the his old club, DC United. DC United traded Eskandarian to
Toronto for cash this winter, and the 24-year old was glad to pay
them back with a goal.

The goal also appeased his father, former New York Cosmo Andranik
Eskandarian, who had kidded Alecko earlier this week about remaining
scoreless for so long.

Eskandarian broke a goalless streak that stretched back to last
season.

"It’s a bit of a monkey off my back," says Eskandarian, who played
four seasons with DC. "I would rather get the three points and the
win but I tried to do my part today. It felt good to get the goal but
it’s bittersweet."

Scoring droughts are foreign territory to Eskandarian, who scored so
often in high school the league adopted a rule to stop him from
shooting.

As a freshman at the University of Virginia he set records for goals
(16) and points (38), then scored 20 goals in 80 games with DC.

After going scoreless through the season’s first four games, he
injured his right calf in practice and had to sit out last Saturday’s
match against Chicago. He played 60 minutes yesterday before Edson
Buddle replaced him, but says his calf is back to normal and he could
have played the whole game.

He says his father never pressured him about scoring, but as a former
pro himself, his dad had plenty of advice.

The grandson of Armenians who fled genocide by the Turks, Andranik
was a rugged defender who played 29 games with Iran’s national team.

After the 1978 World Cup, Andranik signed with the New York Cosmos of
the NASL.

"He’s always very positive with me," says Eskandarian, who as a kid
would kick the ball around with some of his dad’s teammates,
including Pele. "He tells me to keep plugging away."

Andranik thinks his son plays too conservatively these days, and
needs to return to the game-breaking style that won him the Hermann
Trophy – soccer’s version of the Heisman – as a junior at the
University of Virginia.

"I agree with him but the style that we play calls for me to do a lot
of defensive work," he says. "You just kind of have to swallow your
pride and do what you’re told."

Political geography is a changing world

RIA NOVOSTI
Political geography is a changing world
19/ 05/ 2007

Interview with Nikolai Zlobin, director of the Russia and Eurasia Project at
the World Security Institute (U.S.) Part II
Interview with Nikolai Zlobin, director of the Russia and Eurasia Project at
the World Security Institute (U.S.) PART I
In your opinion, neither the United States, nor Russia has a clear-cut
policy in the entire South Caucasian region. They both tend to improvise. Is
it a destabilizing factor?
I think that the South Caucasus has suffered from deteriorated Russian-U.S.
relations. If they were strategic allies, as they planned to be just some
time ago, it would be much easier to resolve many post-Soviet problems. But
today the situation is directly opposite – the United States and Russia are
aggressive towards each other in Eurasia; they are trying to oust each other
from the region, and draw the local elites into their political squabbles.
Settlement of any conflict is judged by one and the same yardstick – whose
positions (Russian or American) will it enhance. In effect, a mild version
of the Cold War is taking place on post-Soviet territory. It differs from
the traditional Cold War not only in geographic dimensions but also in its
exclusively tactical character, lack of strategy, and vague interests and
spheres of influence. Moscow and Washington are improvising – they are
reacting to events and taking single steps. This is considerably
compromising regional stability, formation of competent national elites and
elaboration of independent national strategies.
I believe that in the next few years Russian-U.S. relations will continue
worsening, which is bound to affect the situation in the South Caucasus.
Moreover, the election campaigns that are being launched in both countries
may involve the region in the domestic political struggle both in Russia and
the United States; different political forces may be tempted to use the
region for their ends. This may further rock the situation in the South
Caucasus and encourage some of its forces to use the unpredictable election
situation in major countries.
Are you saying that Russia is not likely to pursue a predictable policy?
Unfortunately, I am. There is a whole number of reasons for this. Russia has
not determined its foreign policy strategy and has largely replaced it with
tactical goals and plans. In many respects, its foreign policy is
monopolized by narrow groups that are exploiting it in their interests. Many
of its important aspects remain frozen, for instance, its line on the U.S.
Currently, Russia does not have an influential or even a numerically strong
political or economic group that would be interested in upgrading these
relations. As a result, they are not given proper attention.
Russia’s policy towards former Soviet countries is largely determined by
competition on the domestic market, attempts by big business to get access
to new markets or keep their monopoly, as well as by the quality of Moscow’s
relations with the local governments. All these factors are temporary.
Is it possible that the United States or Russia may toughen their attitude
to one of the parties in the Karabakh conflict under certain circumstances?
If any party tries to resolve this conflict militarily, Russia and the
United States will strongly toughen their position on it. But with time such
measures may lead to the adamant refusal to consider the refugee problem and
restore justice in regard of innocent victims; both sides may be feigning
their desire to resolve the problem.
The question of the Kosovo precedent has already become trite through
frequent repetition. But still, could Kosovo become a model for settling
post-Soviet conflicts?
Kosovo cannot be a model here. It will become a history lesson, a new
experience but not a model. Moreover, I’m convinced that there will never be
a common pattern for settling post-Soviet conflicts. Their character is
different and they are all unique in some ways. They require different
levels of involvement of outside players and international agencies. The
more these conflicts exist in their current state, the more sophisticated
and flexible the methods of their settlement should be. I think we will have
to work out a fundamentally new legal, economic and political approach to
the very idea of settlement — much more intricate than in the case of
Kosovo.
Some politicians claim that the right of the Karabakh people to
self-determination does not run counter to Azerbaijan’s right to territorial
integrity. Do you accept Karabakh’s right to self-determination?
Here we have come to the old dilemma in international law and world
politics – between the right of nations to self-determination and the right
of a state to territorial integrity. I’m convinced that the right to
self-determination certainly overrides the right of a state to territorial
integrity. After all, any state is simply a formalized instrument of
implementing the rights and interests of its people. There is no doubt that
their interests are above those of the state – unless the latter is simply a
dictatorship that is suppressing these rights and interests. I believe that
the priority of the right of nations to self-determination is universal and
unconditional, and stems from world history, which boils down to the
development of nations. As for states, their forms, borders, sizes or
socio-political, economic and geographic characteristics have always been
and will be transient.
Parliamentary elections in Armenia are just starting the big election
marathon. The presidential race is ahead; it will be followed by the
elections in Azerbaijan. Russia and the United States will also hold
elections. What are the chances for Karabakh settlement in the near future?
If we talk about this period, I think there are none. Moreover, before
elections serious politicians tend to avoid sudden steps, particularly in
foreign policy, because they may destabilize the situation at home and have
many unpredictable consequences.