Author: Chatinian Lara

Center for Research on Globalization, Canada
Feb 28 2010

Destabilization: Caucasus Geopolitics Threatens Russia’s Security

by Nikolai Dimlevitch

The analysis of the situation in the Caucasus and in Transcaucasia
shows that the outlook for the geopolitical entirety is going to be
shaped by the key Western countries’ efforts aimed at debarring Russia
from the Caspian oil and gas projects.

The rivalry between various geopolitical centers of force leads to the
escalation of separatism and extremism, the intensification of the
activity of international terrorist groups, and the perpetuation of
conflicts in the region.

The main threats to Russia’s security are bred by the instability in
Transcaucasia, Iraq, and, potentially, Iran.

Georgia can be expected to continue pursuing a propaganda campaign
aimed at convincing the international community that the zones of
conflict in the Caucasus and in Transcaucasia should be passed under
the UN, the EU, and NATO control. Terrorist provocations are likely to
follow and Russia will be charged with the failure to ensure the
security of local populations.

The persisting US military presence in Iraq and the buildup of its
infrastructures and centers of reconnaissance and control in the
country provides Washington with a broad range of operative and
tactical capabilities.

Given Tehran’s current model of behavior in international politics,
the permanent pressure exerted by the US and the EU on Iran under the
pretext of nonproliferation can trigger escalation and spread of
instability over neighboring territories including the Caspian region
and Transcaucasia.

A serious challenge to Russia’s security is posed by the extremist
groups’ attempts to disseminate Muslim fundamentalist doctrines in its
regions with predominantly Muslim populations. The activity is
supported by the ruling circles and religious centers of Pakistan,
Turkey, the Saudi Arabia, and a number of other countries.

In 2009, the threat to Russia’s security in Transcaucasia stemmed from
the instability generated by the Georgian aggression against South
Ossetia in August, 2008. While the full-scale political settlement is
still lacking, M. Saakashvili’s regime is steering a course of intense
militarization accompanied by aggressive rhetoric targeting Russia,
South Ossetia, and Abkhazia.

Though the EU (Tagliavini’s Commission) report issued on September 30,
2009 stated clearly that Georgia was responsible for the aggression
and that the West’s arms supplies to the country over several years
preceding the conflict had had a generally destabilizing effect,
several countries (the US, Ukraine, Israel, and Turkey) still plan to
resume military assistance to Georgia.

In the settings of the crisis caused by the August, 2008 hostilities,
the new US Administration is fostering Georgia’s hostility towards
Russia and the tensions in the regions of the Georgian-Abkhazian and
Georgian-South Ossetian conflicts. The implementation of Washington’s
plans concerning Georgia would result in the deployment of US military
bases and forward operating locations in the country and in the
strengthening of the American influence over the North Caucasus and
Transcaucasia.

Tbilisi is cultivating its partnership with the US and NATO. Currently
the Pentagon is preparing a draft agreement on the construction of
three US military bases in Georgia and the dispatch of up to 25,000 US
servicemen to the country by 2015.

The Georgian Administration refuses to recognize the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia and makes political and military efforts
aimed at regaining control over the breakaway territories. Georgia’s
foreign politics remains markedly anti-Russian and pursues the goal of
forming a negative perception of Russia by the international
community.

To ensure long-term stability along its southern frontier, Russia
entered into a number of bilateral political and military agreements
with Abkhazia and South Ossetia including the ones on joint border
guarding, military cooperation, and the creation of Russian military
bases. Thanks to the pro-active stance adopted by Moscow, at present
the security at the borders between South Ossetia and Georgia and
between Abkhazia and Georgia is maintained at an acceptable level and
the number of incidents is kept low. The agreements reached by Russian
President D. Medvedev and French President N. Sarkozy set a reasonable
`division of labor’ in the sphere of the Transcaucasian security:
Russia is to safeguard South Ossetia and Abkhazia while the EU is
responsible for guaranteeing that Georgia does not resort to military
force. Russia’s policy of strengthening the security and defense
potentials of South Ossetia and Abkhazia made Russia a stronger player
in Transcaucasia in 2009. The course aimed at reinforcing Moscow’s
political and military position in South Ossetia and Abkhazia should
continue. The 2010 construction of Russian military bases and border
guard infrastructures in the two Republics will help to prevent the
recurrence of Georgian military revanchism in the region.

A precedent of withdrawal from the CIS was set in 2009 when Georgia
enacted the corresponding decision which had been announced a year
earlier. It is an indication of a purely political character of the
gesture that Georgia opted for preserving ` whenever the intentional
law affords ` its commitment to the international treaties signed in
the CIS framework.

The result of the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia in August,
2008 and of its termination of the CIS membership is the practically
complete freeze of Tbilisi’s relations with Russia.

Joint mechanisms of incident prevention in the regions adjacent to
South Ossetia and Abkhazia were launched in accord with the February
17-18 Geneva Conventions by the two Republics, Georgia, Russia, the
UN, the OCSE, and the EU. The result should be serious ease of
tensions and an improved security climate along the borders of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia implemented the policy of strengthening its positions in the
Black Sea and the Caspian regions in the framework of such
organizations as the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), the Black
Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLAKCSEAFOR), the Black Sea Harmony
and sustained dialog with its neighbors on the basis of the Turkish
initiative of a platform of stability and cooperation in the Caucasus.

The Karabakh conflict remains unsettled. It puts obstacles in the way
of rebuilding the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, impedes
the recovery between Armenia and Turkey, and contributes to the
overall instability in Transcaucasia. The Azerbaijani leadership
continues to threaten Armenia with military actions. In 2009 Russia
was actively involved in resolving the Karabakh problem both in the
framework of the activities of the Co-Chairmen of the OCSE Minsk Group
and on the bilateral basis in dealing with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Russia’s active position in Transcaucasia is reflected by its efforts
to strengthen the partnerships with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The
cooperation with Baku and Yerevan developed steadily in international
organizations (mainly the UN and the OCSE) and on the regional level
via the CIS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the
Eurasian Economic Community. It will be important for Moscow to
continue seeking maximal involvement in the settlement of the Karabakh
problem parallel to the activity of the Co-Chairmen of the Minsk
Group.

In 2010 Moscow should deepen its ties with Armenia including those in
the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, thus
reinforcing Russia’s status of a political and military leader in
Transcaucasia. The cooperation with Yerevan, particularly in the
military sphere, should continue to broaden.

As a parallel process, Russia should cultivate its strategic
partnership with Azerbaijan, the country which is a major energy
resources producer, an important regional player, and Russia’s
potential ally in the Black and Caspian Sea regions.

Certain Muslim groups are disseminating doctrines of politicized Islam
across Russia which are untraditional for the country’s Muslim
population. The activity reached particularly high levels in Dagestan,
Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Karachay-Cherkessia. Foreign Muslim centers
are implementing programs of training Muslim clergy to preach in
Russia. At the same time, a number of Western countries tend to exert
political pressure on Russia in connection with the theme.

The Muslim indoctrination in the training centers of Algeria, Turkey,
Syria, the Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Pakistan is the key avenue of
influencing Russia’s Muslim population. Certain religious and
political circles of these and other countries use student exchanges
as an instrument of forming new political elites in the post-Soviet
space that would wrestle over power and be oriented towards foreign
Islamist centers. For example, the Saudi Arabia is allocating
considerable financial resources to the cause.

A reasonable option for Russia in 2010 in the light of the objective
to train moderate and traditionally oriented Muslim clergy would be to
select Muslim young people to study in foreign Muslim schools of a
moderate variety. The corresponding agreements can be signed, for
example, with such renown centers as Al-Azhar University in Cairo.

Currently the US is putting into practice in the North Caucasus the
key element of its novel military strategy ` that of network wars.

North Caucasus ` the Destabilization Factors

There are reasons to believe that the US and other Western countries
started preparing the conditions for the realization of the Color
Revolution scenario in Russia during the 2011-2012 electoral cycle.
The US President suggested a 25% increase in the number of US
Department of State and USAID employees by 2013. A budget amendment
envisages the creation of 1,226 new jobs in the institutions by 2010.
In the future, the number of US Department of State employees is to
increase by 25%, and the number of USAID employees ` to double.

The US and other Western countries use NGOs as instruments in the
network war to collect information and to influence political
developments. Over 100 foreign NGOs and monitoring networks of various
types are operating in Russia’s Southern Federal District.

In Russia’s southern part, the implementation of the network war
concept is exemplified by the activity of the American Soros
Foundation, Carnegie Foundation, John D. and Catherine T. McArthur
Foundation, the German Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Konrad Adenauer
Foundation, and Heinrich Boll Foundation, the Unrepresented Nations
and Peoples Organization, the International Institute for Strategic
Studies, the Gringo Caucasian Refugee and IDP Network, the
International Youth Human Rights Movement, etc. The ideologies,
objectives, and tactic of the organizations are defined by their
sponsors and are subject to the centralized coordination from a single
center in the US.

Propaganda efforts are made in the framework of NGO activities to
influence the peoples of the Caucasus so as to overcome the cultural
integration of the Caucasus into Russia, to banish the pro-Russia
orientation from the Caucasian societies, and to implant the ideology
of hating Russia as the foundation of a new Caucasian identity.

(To be continued)

?context=va&aid=17843

KARABAKH CONFLICT; SUMGAYIT GENOCIDE
By Inga Petrosyan

Azg
Feb 26 2010
Armenia

To recognize the massacres of Sumgayit as genocide

22 years ago, on these days the Armenians of Sumgayit were slaughtered
in Azerbaijan.

"We don’t speak of our truth, but on the contrary, Azerbaijan spreads
its falsehood all over the world playing the role of the victim. The
fairy-tale of Khojali recently created by the Azerbaijani propaganda
machine pursue an aim to mask its crime committed in Sumgayit and
distract the attention of the international community", Grigory
Ayvazyan, Chairman of the Assembly of the Azerbaijani Armenians,
said yesterday at a press conference in Duplex Club.

According to the Assembly, the crime committed by Azerbaijan should not
go unpunished. The whole world should know about it, but first of all,
the Republic of Armenia should recognize the massacres of Sumgayit
as genocide. The Assembly of the Azerbaijani Armenians has submitted
a draft law on Sumgayit genocide to the National Assembly of RA.

Grigory Ayvazyan also spoke of the resettlement of the liberated
territories adjacent to NKR.

"I don’t think that resettlement of the liberated territories by the
Azerbaijani Armenians is the best way to the solution of the problem.

Those territories should be populated by the Armenian villagers,
based on the principles of colonization", he said.

THE CONSUMER OF "ARAR" IS MADE TO BUY "BYUREGH"
By A. Muradyan

February 25, 2010

According to information received from various sources, in the natural
water market of Armenia the Jermuk Group company is literally trying
to shut down all the small companies that compete in the market.

For example, recently in the market of natural water the hydrogenated
water of the company Arar has become noticeable. This has essentially
decreased the sale of Byuregh water of the Jermuk Group. We mean the
water tanks over five liters. The Byuregh label that has been produced
since 2001 is produced in plastic and glass bottles and recently it has
been produced in big gallons. Unlike Byuregh Arar company appeared in
the market later; approximately a year ago and has certain reputation
in the market. Arar company doesn’t circulate any commercials and
doesn’t hold PR actions. However, in the opinion of the experts of
this sector it has occupied an essential role in the market with
its qualitative characters. As of Byuregh, then everybody knows that
Jermuk Group spends enormous amount of money on the elite commercials
of Byuregh and includes the stars to show business in those. Thus, in
the market of natural water a tense struggle has broken up, as a result
of which the owner of Jermuk Group, NA MP Ashot Arsenyan is trying to
use his levers. In particular, according to this information, he had
asked the NA MP Sashik Sargsyan for help. Also, let us mention that
Arar company has two owners, one of who, according to our information,
works in the customs committee of Armenia. Days ago, the latter was
ordered to cease the operation of production in big gallons. Yesterday
we tried to stay in touch with the management of Arar company and find
out what is going on in fact. The phone number of the company posted
on their website now belongs to Byuregh company. So when we called
it was the Byuregh company to answer. The receptionist answered that
this is the phone number of Arar but the consumers of Arar are already
served by the Byuregh company. The person, who we were talking to
(by assuming that we are an Arar consumer) that Byuregh promises a
surprise to the ones, who’d buy a tank of 19 liters. To our question
as how long has it been that Byuregh answers the calls of Arar the
receptionist said, "one week."

By the way, she was explaining in a quite pleasant voice the privileges
of Byuregh that the company offers to the customers of Arar. Thus,
we can assume that the office of Arar belongs to Byuregh.

According to reliable sources the devices of Arar with 5 and more
liters were confiscated by Jermuk Group. The thing is that Arar has
given the opportunity to its customers to get the devices on credit.

Therefore they have been in change of freezing devices as well.

According to our information the freezing devices of Arar are now in
sale by Byuregh company and the price offered is four or five times
cheaper than before.

NEW SOCIAL AND EDUCATION PROGRAM "STEP AHEAD" STARTS IN ARMENIA

PanARMENIAN.Net
25.02.2010 19:33 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On February 27, a 3-month "Step ahead" is starting
in Yerevan. It’s elaborated by methodologists from Poland, Latvia and
Brazil. Within the framework of the program, 45 students from different
Armenian schools will be able to participate in 12 practical trainings,
developing various skills such as time management, finance and other
resource management, establishment of constructive relationships. It
will also help the children broaden their outlook and develop sense
of responsibility.

Duration of the program is 3 months. A three-day conference will end
it. Training languages will be English, Russian and Armenian. The
students will gain practical knowledge as well as attend theatre,
factory and have a tour.

"Our program will enable the children to learn easier by using theory
in practice," said Natalia Niemets, co-author of the program. The
program initiator is Eurasia International University.

IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN: "BY HELPING SOLVE THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT, WE WANT TO FULFILL OUR DUTY OF BROTHERHOOD"

APA
Feb 25 2010
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova, Suleyman Farzaliyev – APA. Iranian ambassador
to Azerbaijan Mahammad Bagir Bahrami held a press conference, APA
reports. The ambassador said on February 26 he will leave for Iran to
attend the seminars of Iranian ambassadors in foreign countries. He
will stay there for two weeks. He said after the visit of Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov to Iran a new stage began in the
relations of the two countries.

The diplomat said the visit of speaker of Azerbaijani parliament
Ogtay Asadov to Iran was very important, he held high-level meetings
in Tehran for two days, the third day on his request he met with
governor of Tabriz, visited mausoleum of poets, got acquainted with
the industrial facilities, drove the tractor made there, that tractor
was presented to Azerbaijan.

Asked how Iran would help solve Nagorno Karabakh conflict, the
ambassador said Iran wanted to fulfill its duty of brotherhood.

"We want to help solve the conflict. Let the officials of the regional
countries meet, discuss, put forward their programs," he said.

Asked whether events on Khojaly genocide would be held in Iran,
Bahrami offered his condolences to Azerbaijani people and state in
connection with the tragedy.

"We condemn the persons, who caused this tragedy and their actions,"
he said.

The ambassador said he did not know what events would be held in Iran,
but his advisor attended the event in Baku and made a ten-minute
speech.

18.3% CRIME RISE IN ARMENIAN ARMED FORCES

news.am
Feb 24 2010
Armenia

A total of 3,422 incidents were registered in the Armenian armed
forces last year, with 2,335 of them being accidents, RA Military
Prosecutor Armen Khachaturyan told reporters.

He reported that 1,064 crimes were registered in the Armenian armed
forces, with 127 of them being grave crimes. Last year, nine Armenian
servicemen were killed by Azerbaijani snipes, with 19 attempted
murders registered.

Also, two attempted murders were registered in the Armenian armed
forces, and one attempted murder of a civilian by a serviceman.

ARMENIAN EXIT STRATEGY APPROVED BY PARLIAMENT
Karine Kalantarian

le/1967378.html
24.02.2010

The National Assembly approved Tuesday a government bill that will
make it easier for Armenia to annul its normalization agreements with
Turkey if Ankara continues to delay their ratification.

The relevant amendments to an Armenian law on international treaties
envisage the suspension or termination of agreements signed by Yerevan
before their entry into force.

President Serzh Sarkisian announced his intention to enact such
amendments in December in response to Turkish leaders’ continuing
statements making the ratification of the Turkish-Armenian "protocols"
conditional on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh. He made clear
that Yerevan will walk away from the deal if Ankara fails to implement
it within a "reasonable" time frame.

The parliament overwhelmingly passed the amendments in the first
reading, with only one of its factions, the opposition Zharangutyun
party, voting against them. Zharangutyun lawmakers, who have been
strongly opposed to the protocols, said Armenian law and international
conventions signed by Yerevan already allow for the abrogation of
international treaties.

Deputies from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun),
the other opposition party represented in the parliament, also
criticized the amendments but chose to vote for them. "It contains
necessary but insufficient formulations," one of them, Artsvik
Minasian, said before the vote. He said not only the president of
the republic but also the parliament must be empowered to invalidate
international agreements.

Armen Rustamian, another Dashnaktsutyun lawmaker who chairs the
parliament committee on foreign affairs, said the National Assembly
should also be given the right to ratify them with "reservations." He
denied any contradiction between the Dashnaktsutyun criticism of the
amendments and its deputies’ decision to vote for them.

"Voting against them means being against the of this necessary tool
by Armenia," Rustamian told RFE/RL’s Armenian service. "We need to
have such a tool."

The amendments were included on the parliament agenda just days
after Sarkisian formally sent the two Turkish-Armenian protocols
to the parliament for ratification. Leaders of the parliament’s
pro-presidential majority have repeatedly stated that the protocols
will not be put to the vote before their ratification by the Turkish
parliament.

THE CYPRUS ARMENIAN ARTIST’S EXHIBITION WILL BE SHOWN IN NEW YORK

Noyan Tapan
Feb 22, 2010

NEW YORK, FEBRUARY 22, NOYAN TAPAN-ARMENIANS TODAY. Tatiana Ferahian’s
artwork entitled the Time Capsule will be shown in New York at the
Ana Tzarev Gallery from 19 February. Last year in November the same
exhibition was showcased at the Freedom to Create Prize award ceremony
in the V&A Museum in London. According to the
exhibition is scheduled to run for six weeks.

IF NEEDED, ARMENIA MAY WITHDRAW FROM ARMENIAN-TURKISH NORMALIZATION PROCESS

Panorama.am
17:14 23/02/2010

Politics

Parliamentarians have launched discussions on draft law on "Making
amendments to the law on international treaties", presented by the
Armenian FM Edward Nalbandian.

The amendments assume suspension and annulation of international
treaties. The initiative over withdrawal may be submitted by the
RA President, PM, FM or a liable institution that represents proper
substantiation to the MFA. Following this, MFA official submits the
substantiations to President within a term of 10 days and the latter
makes a final resolution.

NA Heritage faction member Armen Martirosyan recalled President
Sargsyan’s statement pledging to withdraw from the Armenian-Turkish
normalization process, basing on the amendments made, providing the
Turkish party suspends the process.

"If needed, we will undertake steps towards this," FM Nalbandian said.

CAN OBAMA ENDURE THE CONSEQUENCES OF A GENOCIDE RESOLUTION?

Hurriyet
http://www.hurriyetdailynews .com/n.php?n=will-obama-endure-the-consequences-of -a-genocide-resolution-2010-02-22
Feb 22 2010
Turkey

As "Davutoglu diplomacy" regarding the Iranian nuclear program "hits
high speed," as the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review recently
reported, Turkey now officially confirms it has multiple proposals
in its hands for a peaceful resolution to the problem. And as the
daily Zaman reported, the Turkish administration reckons these new
developments regarding Iran can only be discussed on the leaders’
level. According to Ankara, in this approach, the Turkish leadership
speaks the same language as United States President Barack Obama does,
and the American diplomats in between do not have the sort of savvy
to elaborate these proposals back to their administration.

There is no question that Turkey, amid increasing its profile over the
Iranian issue in the international diplomatic arena, is also trying to
convince their American counterparts how valuable an ally it is for
U.S. national security on many fronts at the same time there is only
one week left until the March 4 vote at the House Foreign Relations
Committee over the Armenian genocide resolution (H.Res.252).

On the street, ordinary Americans are fully unaware of the resolution.

While America is striving to wind down the war in Iraq, it is
escalating the other one in Afghanistan which brought down the Jan
Balkanende government in the Netherlands as a latest casualty. This
development is "raising fears that the Western military coalition
fighting the war is increasingly at risk," the New York Times noted.

On the other hand, the heavyweight Wall Street Journal and conservative
Washington Times editorials in the last week openly started to call
for a military solution for the Iranian problem.

Domestically, Washington cannot overcome its deepening political
divisions, now that it is clear the opposition Republican forces
have nothing to lose in saying "no" to about everything the Obama
administration proposes. On the contrary, so far, staying firmly
in the opposition brought big bonuses for the Republicans, such as
the Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts election wins, along with
plummeting Obama job approval ratings, now below the 50s, according
to the latest CNN polls.

In parallel, one of the biggest annual gatherings of American
conservatives, the American Conservative Union’s Conservative Political
Action Conference, drew about ten thousand energized supporters to
Washington, and they chanted frantically about Obama as a one-term
president.

Though Obama and Congress’ agenda is jumbled with endless fights over
America’s problems, the Armenian-American diaspora organizations now
see some real prospects for a successful genocide passage, first at
the Committee level then in the General Assembly.

While the Obama administration has had very little or no progress
related to foreign affairs, it presented Obama’s prior push and
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s efforts during signing the
protocols between Turkey and Armenia as one of the U.S.’ achievements.

Therefore, the question is whether Obama would allow the looming
Armenian Genocide Resolution to pass early March, then let the process
play itself out. Bearing such a move, without a question, would set
back the solid U.S.-Turkey relationships that were accelerated by
Obama’s first bilateral visit to Turkey last April as well as the
normalization process between Turkey and Armenia, which has admittedly
been in slow motion for a while.

I asked Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian Assembly
of America in Washington, if he saw the protocols and the Armenian
Genocide Resolution as linked. His response was "absolutely not."

Ardouny further stated, "U.S. reaffirmation should not be held hostage
to normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey."

When asked about the difference between this year and last year
when Obama skipped using the word "genocide," Ardouny indicated,
"President Obama has made it clear that his views on the Armenian
Genocide have not changed. In this, the 95th anniversary year, the
President has an important opportunity to deliver on his repeated
pledge [to recognize] the Armenian Genocide."

Jewish lobbies are neutral this year

While it is a matter of discussing how effective the Jewish lobbying
forces are when it comes to this issue, considering that besides
then-Representative Robert Wexler, other American-Jewish members of
the House Foreign Relations Committee voted for the resolution last
time around anyway; still, one should not belittle their effectiveness
in Washington regarding any kind of legislative matters. The recent
statement from Roger Cohen, New York Times columnist, in an interview
for Newsweek shows how Jewish members of the U.S. Congress do not
hesitate to put pressure on Obama for Israel, even over America’s
domestic matters. Cohen said, "President Obama, I understand, has
been told by some Jewish congressmen if you want your health bill,
step back on Israel."

According to one leader in the Jewish community, who in the past
was heading one of the Jewish lobby outlets and still is very much
an active figure here in Washington, told me last week, "Members of
Congress do not believe that the normalization process in Turkey and
Armenia is going anywhere. The still-closed borders between the two
countries are a big sign for them. And nobody should expect Jewish
lobbies to put up a fight against the resolution around this time…

Obama does not seem as effective as [former U.S. President George W.]
Bush was over his Republican lawmakers to put up a strong fight. And
there is a good chance for the resolution passing this year."

When I asked how the U.S. can navigate in the region with an angry
Turkey following such an episode, the source acknowledged that
"that would be very difficult… I just don’t know how America can
be effective energizing sanctions on Iran without Turkey’s strong
support."

One Congressional source, who has a proximity to the AIPAC, a strong,
right-wing Jewish lobby in Washington, stated, "[Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip] Erdogan did not do anything to gain Israel’s friendship. Many
of the members of the American Congress tend to look at the region
in a simplistic way. They tend to categorize the countries as friends
and foes. When they see Turkey repeatedly attack Israel, a strong U.S.

friend in the region, they do not view this positively."

While openly stating that AIPAC is not putting up a fight against
the resolution this year, the same source still thinks, "There is
time and room for Turkey to maneuver for the resolution," but stopped
short of explaining how.

Ardouny echoed this sentiment in terms of the Jewish lobbies not
fighting against the resolution, and also pointed out that the
Armenian Genocide resolution enjoys strong support among Jewish
members of Congress.

The Anti-Defamation League, or ADL’s, media relations deputy director
Todd Gutnick sent me a statement explaining the ADL’s position over
the issue: "[The ADL] firmly believes a Congressional resolution
on the Armenian Genocide is counterproductive. Now that Turkey and
Armenia are engaged in diplomatic discussions, we believe it is up
to the two countries to work toward reconciliation."

When I asked Gutnick over the phone whether the ADL is engaged in a
lobbying fight against the resolution, Gutnick said, "no, we aren’t."

Newly created liberal J Street and American Jewish Community, or AJC,
spokespeople also said they are not taking a position over the issue
and lobbying for either side.

One Washington source stated last week he still expects "Turkey to
pull a rabbit out of a hat" when approaching March 4. I, for one,
am closely watching for that hat.