Premier Pašinyan reportedly open to the possibility. It would reunite Russia, Armenia, Belarus and the part of Ukraine occupied by the Russians. Armenian commentator: the people would oppose it. Attempts have been made to resume negotiations with Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Moscow (AsiaNews) – In the latest talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pašinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin there seems to have been mention, even without official statements, of the possibility of Armenia becoming part of the “unitary state”. It should also reunite with Russia Belarus and that part of Ukraine that will remain in Kremlin hands after the end of the war. The topic is sparking a heated discussion in the country, which is waiting for the help of the Russians to contain Azerbaijan’s aggression on the territories of Nagorno Karabakh, but has no intention of giving up its independence.
The well-known Armenian political commentator Armen Bagdasaryan has spoken to a broadcast of Radio Azatutyun to comment on the subject, noting that “a few years ago our country was still an important player in the Caucasus region, with a regular army and an economy in order, controlling de facto 42 thousand square kilometers of territory. Today all this has been lost, or at least it has been reduced… the only card we still have is the recognition of the UN as an autonomous state, let’s try not to lose this one too”.
Bagdasaryan expresses the hope that even in case of strong pressures from Moscow the Prime Minister “will have the courage to say no”, possibly leaving the issue to be resolved by a popular referendum and that “our society will be united in defending our independence to the end”. Otherwise, he concludes, “it will be the people who will say no to Pašinyan.”
The problem of diplomatic relations makes the issue very thorny, just when Armenia and Azerbaijan have declared they are ready to resume peace talks, which should take place under the aegis of the “Minsk Group”, the OSCE structure entrusted with the management of negotiations on Karabakh. The co-presidents of the group are Russia, the USA and France, but the events of war in Ukraine make it practically impossible to carry out its functions, as explained to journalists by the Polish ambassador to Yerevan, Pavel Celnjak.
The OECD General Secretariat in Vienna, led by German Helga Maria Schmid, is trying to rebuild cooperation between the countries involved, given that France and the US have ceased relations with Russia over the invasion in Ukraine, also turning to other countries, including Poland, which has offered its mediation “as far as possible.” Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau had gathered his counterparts from the three co-chairing countries in Warsaw shortly before the start of the Ukrainian conflict, and then visited both Yerevan and Baku. On April 1, Rau issued a joint statement in Yerevan with local minister Ararat Mirzoyan, expressing hope that events in Ukraine would not impede the resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In the meantime, Armenia is also suffering the heavy economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, with price increases in basic necessities, which have reached over 12% since the beginning of the year. The country had already suffered severe price increases, as well as food and energy shortages after the 2020 war, and was struggling to stabilize the situation with financial operations led by the Central Bank, the last of which took place on March 15.
The economic, diplomatic and military crisis makes the position of PM Pašinyan, who is being pressed by the oppositions despite the popular consensus that led him to win a second term in early elections last year, increasingly fragile. The threatening shadow of Moscow looms from Ukraine to the Caucasus.