Turkey At A Crossroads, As Always

TURKEY AT A CROSSROADS, AS ALWAYS

ZNet, MA
April 22 2007

Khatchig Mouradian interviews Amberin Zaman

"Turkey is always at a crossroads," I said. "That’s what we have been
reading in the newspapers in Turkey and in the West for years now. It
seems it is convenient to stay at a crossroads."

There is no choice but to take the road to EU integration,
he insisted. It is the only way to bring freedom of expression,
minority rights and democracy to Turkey. For Turkish-Armenians, too,
it is crucial. "There are people in this country who-if given the
chance-would slaughter us again," he told me.

This was in June 2005 in Istanbul.

On Jan. 19, 2007, I woke up from a phone call from Turkey. "It is
all over Turkish TV," I was told. "They killed him."

Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink was slaughtered in front of
the editorial offices of his newspaper Agos. He had met one of the
people who was "given the chance" and acted upon it.

Three months have passed since Dink’s murder, and-you guessed it-the
country is still at a crossroads. I talked about today’s Turkey with
Amberin Zaman, Turkey correspondent for The Economist.

"Even I, as a journalist, have to measure my words very very carefully,
because I don’t know when some extremist will consider what I said to
be ‘insulting Turkishness’ and take me to court on that," Zaman says
in this interview. " It’s a very nefarious, poisonous atmosphere that
we live in today, and all the more so because we really can’t pinpoint
where the danger is coming from. And what’s really obscene about it is
that these people use Turkish law to attack intellectuals," she adds.

*** Khatchig Mouradian-How does an election year differ from typical
years in Turkey? What makes this election year special?

Amberin Zaman-In a typical election year, you have all of the issues
in the country being debated and politicians claiming that they have
the solutions to these problems. There’s a lot of noise, a lot of
propaganda. But this is a quite unique year because we have both
presidential and parliamentary elections.

For the presidential elections, the government is in a position to
elect its own candidate, because the ruling party has a majority in
the parliament. We haven’t seen this for a long time in Turkey, not
since former Prime Minister Turgut Ozal managed to elevate himself
to the presidency back in the early 90s.

The ruling AK [Justice and Development] party has brought political
Islam closer to the political center; and despite all the scare
mongering that’s going on, it will win the next election. People don’t
buy the Islamist bogeyman stories anymore. That is not to say that
the forces that oppose democracy won’t keep pulling deadly tricks
out of their bag. But I truly believe their days are numbered.

The real threat to Turkey in my opinion comes from instability on its
southern border. The worst thing that could happen would be for Turkey
to intervene militarily in Iraq, and there is no dearth of hotheads
calling for this. The other big issue is corruption and sadly the AK
party is not as "white" as its name claims. The parallel economy, which
accounts for roughly half of the economy by the Economy Minister’s
own admission, is sucking up huge resources that could help alleviate
poverty in the southeast, for instance.

This time around, the issue has taken a particular significance
because the secular camp, led by the military, is arguing that if
the AK party manages to elect its own candidate, and particularly
if this candidate happens to be Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Turkey’s secularism, its westward orientation, will be at stake.

On the other hand, there are liberals who argue that if Turkey is
a democracy and if a party has a majority, then it is perfectly
legitimate for it to have its own candidate-be it the Prime Minister
or somebody else-and elevate him to the presidency.

In this case, there is the added twist of the Islamic style
headscarf. Critics argue that the scarf, worn by more than half
the spouses of members of Erdogan’s cabinet, is a sign of Islamic
militancy and not just an expression of personal piety. So there is
incredible debate revolving around, I must say, a woman’s head.

K.M. -It has become a cliche to say that Turkey is torn between the
East and the West, Islam and secularism, totalitarianism and democracy,
etc. What are your thoughts on this duality paradigm?

A.Z. -I disagree with that paradigm because over the past few years,
and particularly with the AK party’s rise to power, modern democracy,
rule of law and human rights have all found expression in ways that
have also captured the imagination of pious people in this country. I
think the people who tend to portray overtly pious politicians as
Islamic fundamentalists are just afraid of losing power. They are
scared of change. They don’t want a Turkey that’s open and transparent.

K.M.-Does the ruling party push the democracy project because it is
aware that this is the only way it can survive?

A.Z.-Yes, they fully understand that democracy is the only way
forward for the country and indeed for their own survival, because
the forces that oppose them can only be countered through democracy
and the EU project.

Let us also not forget about market forces. The market economy has
also played a big role in helping cement democracy in this country.

The average Turk can now project 4-5 years into the future,
something they were unable to do just a few years ago. The Turkish
lira is now stable and inflation has been brought under control The
Turkish consumer is rather happy and does not want to see any of
that threatened by political tension. And I think that lesson has
been taken on board by the Turkish military, especially after the
huge financial crisis in 2001 when everyone woke up to the reality
of globalization-that what happens in Turkey has an impact abroad
and vice versa.

K.M. -What are the main challenges Turkey faces on its path to
democracy?

A.Z. -The Kurdish issue is a very key one. Being able to deal honestly
with the past-the Armenian issue-is another key challenge.

Accommodating Turkey’s non-Muslims, non-Turks and non-Sunni Muslims
is also a big challenge facing Turkey. And we still have quite a long
way to go before finding solutions to all of these problems.

K.M.-You use the term democracy quite frequently when you talk about
Turkey. How loosely are you using this term? How much of a democracy
is Turkey?

A.Z. -If Turkey is to become a full democracy, there are several
things that need to be fixed. First of all, it needs to reduce the
role of the military. Unless you do that, it’s pretty hard to fix
the other problems.

K.M.-During Hrant Dink’s funeral, tens of thousands of mourners
chanted, "We are all Hrants, We are all Armenian." Yet, a nationalist
backlash was also evident in the aftermath of the killing. What has
changed in Turkey after January 19 [the day Dink was assassinated]?

A.Z. -I don’t know if anything changed. I think it is a question of
what emerged. I think what emerged during Hrant’s funeral was that a
lot of Turkish people-despite all this nationalism, despite all this
fear of the other-were able to empathize with the Armenians who have
been portrayed as the enemy even though they happen to be Turkish
citizens and have lived on these lands for thousands of year. This
is an extremely important development.

Yes, there has been a backlash, but the very fact that over 100,000
Turks took to the streets raising placards saying they were all Hrant,
were all Armenians is something quite extraordinary. At Hrant Dink’s
funeral, the mourners-mostly middle-class Turks-felt horribly guilty,
horribly ashamed. I think the forces that are opposed to change in
this country were quite shocked and disturbed by that.

Yes, we have all these weird, creepy ultra-nationalists organizing
across the country, but there is a parallel protest by an increasing
number of Turks who want a more democratic, less paranoid country
for themselves.

Regarding the Armenian issue, people are just trying to block what they
suspect might have happened. There is "collective amnesia," as Elif
Shafak calls it, carried down from generation to generation. I don’t
think it’s a conscious denial. It’s buried in the people’s collective
memory and now, finally, self-questioning has started in this country.

You also have to give credit to popular culture in this regard. A
widely popular series called the "Valley of the Wolves," which
appealed to all of our worst nationalistic instincts, has been taken
off the air. This didn’t happen because the EU told us to do so,
but because hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens believed that
this was very harmful. And I think that Hrant’s tragic death helped
us realize this. And it was probably one of the very few instances as
a journalist in this country that I ever saw this kind of spontaneous
civic reaction actually materializing to something concrete.

We have this explosion of TV series that depict love affairs between
Greeks and Turks. Indeed, one piece of extraordinary news emerged in
the past few days that the very same production company that put out
"Valley of the Wolves" also has a project to air a show about a love
affair between a Turk and an Armenian. Popular culture is a very
effective way to overcome stereotypes and taboos. It is not overtly
political so people are much open to accept messages through popular
culture than through the voices of various politicians and Western
countries that lecture Turkey. I do believe civil society is really
taking root in this country.

Still, there is this great resistance on the part of certain great
forces to deal honestly with the past, because in fact it will
challenge some of the notions on which the republic was founded.

There is this almost existential fear about the issue-a siege
mentality, a sense that these Western forces are using these "local
collaborators" (Armenians, Kurds, non-Muslims) to dismember Turkey.

Eighty years on, we still seem to be immersed in that sort of
paranoia, which is very recklessly exploited not just by the army
but by politicians as well.

It is my firm conviction that until Turkey deals honestly with its
past, it will not be able to move forward. And I believe it is now all
coming to a head with Hrant’s death. There is a collective malaise
in this country born of the knowledge buried somewhere deep in the
Turkish psyche that some pretty horrendous things happened before
the Republic was formed. That is what propelled so many to take
part in Hrant’s funeral. It’s almost as if they were trying to say,
"We aren’t all murderers." But then, so many other horrible things
followed, though they were far from being on the same scale, that
people didn’t really have a chance to take stock. It’s only now,
after 6 years of largely uninterrupted democracy and a cooling down
of the violence in the southeast, that we can reflect on the past.

There has been a profusion of films and TV series questioning military
interventions. Despite the intimidation campaign unleashed by the
ultra nationalist thugs and their mentors, I think it’s only a matter
of time before the Armenian issue is debated in its proper context
as it should be.

K.M.-But most people are still afraid to speak out in Turkey…

A.Z. -Even I, as a journalist, have to measure my words very very
carefully, because I don’t know when some extremist will consider
what I said to be "insulting Turkishness" and take me to court on
that. It’s a very nefarious, poisonous atmosphere that we live in
today, and all the more so because we really can’t pinpoint where
the danger is coming from. And what’s really obscene about it is that
these people use Turkish law to attack intellectuals.

K.M. -What are the prospects of Article 301 being removed?

A.Z. -The Prime Minister keeps saying that he is open to the idea of
amending it, certainly not scrapping it altogether. It is an election
year and like all politicians, the Prime Minister is very wary of
losing nationalist votes. I frankly can’t say with any certainty that
we will see change in that law, but even if we amend Article 301,
there are other laws out there that extremists can use to continue
attacking intellectuals. What really needs to change as much as the
law is the mentality in the country.

K.M. -How do you envision this change? Will it come from civil society,
or are the powers that be so strong that change will only happen when
they are ready to allow it?

A.Z. -I think it’s a two-way process. There is a civil society that
seems to be bearing fruit and at the same time there is some readiness
to change at the top.

What makes the Turkish military very unique when you compare it
to other militaries in developing countries is that it has always
drawn much of its popularity from the Turkish people. Let us not
forget that it continues to be the most popular institution in this
country and I think Turkish officers and generals would never want
to lose that support. They understand that as Turkey becomes more
open and democratic in this global world, people’s perceptions are
changing and that they, too, have to change. Reasonable people in the
military fully appreciate and understand that their actions now have
a very direct impact on the economy, and that there’s no better way
to antagonize your citizens than to make them poor.

K.M.-Let us talk about the Kurdish issue. What does the average Kurd
suffer from in Turkey?

A.Z. -First of all, there are the very real problems of poverty,
illiteracy and unemployment in the regions of Turkey mainly populated
by Kurds. That is a very big challenge. Also, if you are an ordinary
Kurd living in the southeast and you want to express yourself on the
basis of your very distinct ethnic and cultural identity, you still
run into problems. I’ve been down to that region countless times. I
can give you the example of a private radio station in the province of
Hakkari, where the owner told me that he is constantly in trouble with
Turkish authorities because he plays Kurdish music on his channel, even
though the lyrics of the songs are in no way offensive or threatening.

There are so many other examples that I can give you. In recent
weeks, we have seen an enormous amount of pressure brought to bear
on the leaders of the largest pro-Kurdish party. The president and
co-president of the party were sentenced to six months in jail because
they had handed out flyers in the Kurdish language.

Also, you still need to have 10 percent of the national vote in order
to make it into parliament. This needs to be lowered to a reasonable
level because it automatically excludes pro-Kurdish parties. A Kurdish
politician cannot go to parliament and represent the cultural demands
of the Kurds. Until you allow this people to be a part of the political
system and empower them in that way, there will always be non-political
actors such as the PKK who continue to advance these goals on behalf
of the Kurdish people.

K.M.-How is the U.S. intervention in Iraq viewed in Turkey?

A.Z. -I think that everyone-from the leftists to the centrists to
the rightists to the Islamists-is pretty much opposed to the U.S.

intervention in Iraq. Insofar as how they view Turkey’s interests
in light of the situation there, you have different voices, but the
strongest one says that the emergence of an independent Kurdistan in
northern Iraq is being encouraged by the U.S., and that this poses
an existential threat to Turkey. The strongest evidence of this, they
argue, is the fact that the U.S. has not taken military action against
the PKK. The common perception is that the U.S. favors Iraqi-Kurdish
leaders Massoud Barzani and Jelal Talabani over the Turks, and that
this is partly due to Turkey’s refusal to allow U.S.

troops to open a second front against Saddam Hussein using Turkish
territory in 2003.

There is this tunnel vision on Iraq. They see everything through the
PKK lens.

K.M.-What about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict? On one hand, there
is popular support for the Palestinian cause, and, on the other,
there is the strategic alliance with Israel…

A.Z. -There seems to be a contradiction between Turkey’s strategic
alliance with Israel and this huge wave of support and sympathy for
the Palestinians. But that contradiction in many ways exposes broader
contradictions in the way Turkey thinks about itself and the world.

Because on the one hand, they believe that the alliance with Israel
will make Turkey stronger in the region. Before the Iraq war,
it helped Turkey gain favor in Washington and gave it a lot of
maneuvering space, certainly vis-a-vis the EU. You had that sort of
structure in place, that sort of idea that if you have good relations
with Israel then America will always be behind you and you can flex
your muscles more effectively vis-a-vis the EU, Iran even, and the
entire region. Certainly, that whole paradigm has shifted following
the U.S. occupation of Iraq. It’s one that was already beginning
to unravel after the first Gulf War. I think that we are now seeing
significant realignment of that power equation.

K.M.-Talk about Turkey’s relations with Iran, especially in the
context of the nuclear issue.

A.Z.-Turkey is increasingly seeing this as an opportunity to
exercise its regional power and influence. It seems to have portrayed
itself as an honest broker in this crisis. As a Muslim, pro-Western
country and a member of NATO, Turkey has credibility on both sides,
and certainly its credibility in the Muslim world has been greatly
enhanced by the AK party. There are many examples of Turkish behavior
that suggest it wants to embrace the Muslim world in a way that none
of its predecessors did. I think the Turks see all of it as more of
an opportunity than a problem.

K.M.-If the confrontation deepens, will Turkey be forced to choose
sides?

A.Z. -I think Turkey will be on the side of European governments
and the U.S. as long as it’s confined to non-military measures. But
beyond that, Turkey will remain decidedly neutral. In my opinion,
Turkey will not allow the U.S. to use its territory or airspace to
launch attacks against Iran.

K.M. -Where do you see Turkey going? Will we witness more EU
integration or will extreme nationalist feelings and growing pressure
from the EU will take the country in another direction?

A.Z. -I like to remain optimistic and hopeful that Turkey’s general
direction will be towards a modern democratic society. There is going
to be plenty of towing and throwing along the way. That’s what we are
witnessing now, strong nationalist pressure. But you have to look at
the historical perspective. Turkey has been trying to modernize since
the 19th century and from that time until today we have had reactions
and counter reactions.

Today, the military enjoys more influence than it should in a
democratic society but I think the winds are blowing in the direction
of more democracy and not less.

Khatchig Mouradian is a Lebanese-Armenian journalist, writer
and translator. He is the editor of The Armenian Weekly
(), published in Boston, MA.

www.armenianweekly.com

Congressmen Form Colorado Support Armenian Genocide Resolution

CONGRESSMEN FORM COLORADO SUPPORT ARMENIAN GENOCIDE RESOLUTION

PanARMENIAN.Net
19.04.2007 18:07 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The entire Colorado congressional delegation
unanimously supports the House and Senate Armenian Genocide
Resolutions, the Armenian Assembly of America (AAA) announced
today. Congressman Mark Udall (D) was the first member of the Colorado
congressional delegation to cosponsor this bipartisan resolution. In
addition to congressional support, the Armenian Genocide has also been
acknowledged at the state and municipal governmental levels. Governor
Bill Ritter of Colorado and Mayor John Hickenlooper of Denver have
both issued proclamations on the Armenian Genocide. Moreover, the
Colorado State legislature has also issued a joint resolution stating
that "Remembrance of April 24, 2007 and every April 24th hereafter
as Colorado Day of Remembrance of the Armenian Genocide."

No International Human Rights Organization Considers Zhirayr Sefilia

NO INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATION CONSIDERS ZHIRAYR SEFILIAN AS POLITICAL PRISONER FOR PRESENT

Noyan Tapan
Apr 20 2007

YEREVAN, APRIL 20, NOYAN TAPAN. "No international human rights
organization considers Zhirayr Sefilian as a political prisoner for
the present: in any case, we do not have such facts," Armen Aghayan,
member of In Defence of Liberated Territories public-political
initiative headed by Z. Sefilian, said in his interview to Noyan
Tapan. In his words, the United States use dual standards in issues
of protection of human rights. In particular, in the last report of
U.S. State Department editor-in-chief of Zhamanak Yerevan newspaper,
Arman Babajanian was recognized as a political prisoner, but Zhirayr
Sefilian and Vardan Malkhasian abruptly speaking against the American
viewpoint of ceding territories in Nagorno Karabakh were not recognized
as political prisoners.

In A. Aghayan’s words, only OSCE observers fixed that V. Malkhasian
being a candidate for deputacy was arrested for political reasons.

Commenting upon the statement of Chairman of Dashink (Alliance) Party,
Samvel Babayan made at the April 19 meeting with electors, according
to which allegedly Z. Sefilian was arrested because S. Babayan had
offered cooperation to the latter trying to consolidate around himself
"people having fought in the war, including Sefilian," A. Aghayan said
that before being arrested Z. Sefilian had cooperated with S. Babayan
for several months. A. Aghayan did not render more concrete around
what issues that cooperation was. In his words, he is not aware of
all details, and "if Samvel Babayan made such a statement, so it had
been so."

A. Aghayan considered it improbable that the authorities will be able
to keep Z. Sefilian in arrest up to the presidential elections.

EU Makes It Against Law To Condone GenocideDavid Charter In Luxembou

EU MAKES IT AGAINST LAW TO CONDONE GENOCIDEDAVID CHARTER IN LUXEMBOURG

Times Online, UK
April 20 2007

Condoning or "grossly trivialising" genocide will become a crime
punishable by up to three years in prison across Europe, although
justice ministers failed to agree a specific ban on denying the
Holocaust yesterday.

Germany used its presidency of the EU to push through the first
Europe-wide race-hate laws, regarded by Berlin as an historic
obligation in the 50th anniversary year of the union created to
preserve peace and prosperity after the Second World War.

Under pressure from nations worried about freedom of speech, led by
Britain, Germany scaled back ambitions to replicate its strict laws
of Holocaust denial and dropped plans to outlaw the display of Nazi
symbols at an EU level.

All 27 EU nations will be obliged to criminalise "publicly
condoning, denying or grossly trivialising crimes of genocide, crimes
against humanity and war crimes" but the test for prosecution was
set deliberately high to secure agreement in Luxembourg. Cases will
succeed only where "the conduct is carried out in a manner likely to
incite violence or hatred".

The definition of genocide will be that set at the Nuremberg trials
and by the International Criminal Court, meaning that it will include
Nazi crimes and those in Rwanda and Yugoslavia but not the Armenian
genocide – a definition disputed by Turkey.

Poland, Slovenia and the Baltic states lobbied hard for – but failed
to win – the inclusion of a crime of denying, condoning or trivialising
atrocities committed in the name of Joseph Stalin in the new law.

They did, however, secure a pledge that the European Commission would
prepare a Green Paper on 20th-century genocidal crimes and carry out
a review within two years on whether denying these should come under
the scope of the race-hate law.

This led to accusations that the EU was trying to rewrite history.

Graham Watson, MEP, leader of the Liberal group in the European
Parliament, said: "The EU has no business legislating on history. We
should leave that to historians and individual member states.

"Attempts to harmonise EU laws on hate crimes are both illiberal and
nonsensical. [This] risks opening the floodgates on a plethora of
historical controversies . . . whose inclusion could pose a grave
threat to freedom of speech."

Franco Frattini, the European Justice Commissioner, said: "We have
proposed public hearings and I propose to involve all stakeholders,
including historians. The final result should be to improve public
awareness, especially for younger people and students. We do not
want to rewrite history. History is history." The EU-wide crime of
inciting violence or hatred against a person’s race, colour, religion,
descent or national or ethnic origin agreed yesterday will result in
conviction only where there is "intentional conduct".

Officials said there would be no change in British law, where there
are already penalties of up to seven years for inciting racial hatred
under the Religious and Racial Hatred Act of 2006, which was used as
a model for the final EU text.

Britain also pushed successfully to ensure that religious attacks
would be covered only if they were of a racist or xenophobic nature,
so that criticism of Islam or other faiths would not automatically
fall under the new measures.

String Quartet After Komitas To Participate In International Music F

STRING QUARTET AFTER KOMITAS TO PARTICIPATE IN INTERNATIONAL MUSIC FESTIVAL TO TAKE PLACE IN FRANCE

Noyan Tapan
Apr 19 2007

YEREVAN, APRIL 19, NOYAN TAPAN. "The string quartet after Komitas was
not involved in the events being held within the framework of the Year
of Armenia to France, whereas both performance level and history of
the quartet give right to participate in those events." Artistic head
of the quartet, professor Eduard Tadevosian expressed this confidence
in the interview to the Noyan Tapan correspondent. In his words,
he has never addressed and will not address with that issue to the
organizers as the dignity does not allow: "It is a state program,
if they find proper they send, if not, then we are not of their taste."

At the same time E. Tadevosian mentioned that the quartet will leave
for France in the summer to participate in the international music
festival. The invitation was got from France. And the string quartet
after Komitas will go on tours to Uruguay in the autoumn.

CBA Takes Measures Aimed At Regulation Of Actuary Activity Sector

CBA TAKES MEASURES AIMED AT REGULATION OF ACTUARY ACTIVITY SECTOR

Noyan Tapan
Apr 18 2007

YEREVAN, APRIL 18, NOYAN TAPAN. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA)
is taking measures aimed at development of methodology and order of
licensing of actuary activity. Hrachia Petrosian, Head of the Actuary
Analysis Office of Nork CJSC, told NT correspondent about it.

According to him, their office, which is the only one in Armenia,
tries to cooperate with insurance companies, taking into account
the work done by the CBA, as the field of actuary activity is in
the process of formation and has not been fully regulated. He said
that the CBA has much to do in terms of substantiating the insurance
tariffs, and the first steps in this direction have already been taken:
insurance companies submit reports to the CBA by presenting them in
the administrative statistical form established by the CBA.

"We are trying to form the market of specialized (actuary) services,
after which we will attempt to provide services in line with certain
standards," the head of Nork’s actuary office said. Particularly, an
attempt is made to cooperate with the CBA for solution of licensing
problems, as well as to act as a third – expert party in the CBA’s
work with insurance companies.

In the words of H. Petrosian, banks will also have a relation to
actuary activity because they will also be interested in working
with independent actuaries for assessment of their activities and
the borrower risk insurance tariffs. He said that all this will
create an opportunity for precedents of consulting organizations’
unification in the actuary activity sector, as well as in the sphere
of lawyer activity.

ANKARA: Armenian Bill Continues On

ARMENIAN BILL CONTINUES ON

Sabah, Turkey
April 17 2007

The Prime Minister of Germany, Angela Merkel, met with Erdoðan in
Hannover, then, referring to the bill which assumes the denial of
the Armenian genocide as a crime, she said: "we do not have this on
our agenda."

When responding to a question about the visa problem, Merkel said
visa issuance for businessmen and truck drivers will be facilitated;
however, in return, they will require Turkey to take the necessary
actions to curtail those abusing the visa right.

Erdoðan stated that Turkey expects more efforts from Germany as the
EU term chair and criticized once again the lack of an invitation to
Turkey for the 50th anniversary of the EU.

–Boundary_(ID_y7E7TZ6cMawDWglF+XrI6w)–

FT Report – Look further east for the next big market

FT REPORT – FT FUND MANAGEMENT: Look further east for the next big
market
By Fiona Rintoul

Financial Times/UK
Published: Apr 16, 2007

The growth story in central and eastern European (CEE) markets is well
known. Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries all
outperformed western Europe in the run-up to their accession to the EU
and beyond.

Buoyed by rising oil prices and expanding consumer demand, Russia,
though a riskier bet, has also been a top performer.

What goes up must come down, however, or at least slow down, and the
eastern European markets aren’t producing the spectacular returns they
once did. Is it perhaps time, then, to look further east?

The Swedish investment boutique East Capital, a specialist in the CEE
markets, certainly thinks so. No one is writing off the CEE markets or
Russia yet, least of all East Capital, but the Stockholm-based firm
thinks the moment is ripe to mine opportunities in the former Soviet
Central Asian republics.

"The powerful expansion of these economies is very reminiscent of what
we have seen in Russia, though at an early stage," says Aivaras
Abromavicius, manager of the East Capital Bering Central Asia Fund
launched in January this year.

"With over 75m inhabitants, the region has great opportunities in the
banking and finance, consumer goods and telecom sectors, as well as oil
and gas and other raw materials."

In theory, the East Capital fund can invest in 10 of the former Soviet
republics ranging from large countries such as Kazakhstan, which has a
land mass equal to that of western Europe, and Uzbekistan with 26m
inhabitants, to the smaller nations of the Caucasus, such as
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. In practice, however, until recently
it has been extremely difficult to travel in, for example,
Turkmenistan, much less invest there, and most of the fund’s
investments – up to 90 per cent – will initially be in Kazakhstan, by
far the most developed market.

"Kazakhstan is the beacon country in the region," says Michael Denison,
lecturer in comparative politics at the University of Leeds and central
Asian political analyst for Control Risks Group. "It has the backing of
huge natural reserves in metals as well as oil and gas, and it also has
quite sophisticated banking and pensions systems."

But Kazakhstan is also a story that, to some extent, has already been
told. "Kazakhstan is very well known in the investment community," says
Gregor Holek, fund manager of equities emerging markets at Raiffeissen
Capital Management.

The 16 companies that are quoted locally are also listed on the London
or Toronto stock exchanges. Several of the larger Kazakh companies, for
example the copper mining firm Kazakhmys or leading banks such as
Kazkommertsbank and Halyk Bank, have attracted interest from
institutional investors worldwide. Kazakhmys has been in the FTSE 100
since 2005.

The question, then, really is: what other opportunities exist in the
region? Apart from one investment in Georgia, Mr Holek, who is
investing for Raiffeisen’s Central and Eastern European Fund and its
Eurasian fund, both sold to retail investors, stays away from markets
other than Kazakhstan.

Within Kazakhstan he sticks with stocks listed in London and has
limited exposure – 1 per cent within the Eurasian portfolio.

By contrast East Capital, whose fund is for professional investors and
was one of the first to invest in the Ukraine and the Balkan countries,
likes to go deeper.

The company has already invested $400m in the region through its
Russian and central and eastern European funds, and now wants to offer
investors undiluted exposure.

For Mr Abromavicius, a Lithuanian national who saw the growth in the
Baltic countries unfold, these markets are the next big transition
story and the time to get in is now.

"The window of opportunity closes faster and faster," he says. "In the
early days, you could invest in the Baltics for many years until it
became market saturated and valuations were similar to or even higher
than in neighbouring countries. This window of opportunity closed
substantially faster in the Ukraine and Romania. It will close
relatively faster in central Asia as well because these markets are
developing very quickly."

That may be so – Mr Holek felt Kazakh stocks were already being sold at
a premium before February this year – but these markets remain hugely
risky. Some, such as Tajikistan and Georgia have not yet reached their
former Soviet GDP levels. None has anything resembling a western
concept of free government. Even in Kazakhstan, the jewel in the crown,
the presidential elections did not meet international standards and the
portion of the major companies that isn’t freely floated is usually
controlled by factions related, literally, to President Nursultan
Nazarbayev.

Mr Abromavicius admits that "most of these markets are not yet
investable". But he wants to be in from the start to take advantage of
an expected consumer boom.

Aside from the large listed Kazakh companies, of which more are
expected with several IPOs in the pipeline, and which Mr Abromavicius
says have excellent management, East Capital does its own research to
find its investments.

There are no big foreign investment banks in the region, aside from
Deutsche Bank, and information is limited.

"We travel a lot on our own," says Mr Abromavicius. "We like it that
way."

It is trailblazing stuff and the risks are not to be underestimated.
Then again, with commodity prices looking like they will remain high
for longer, the region’s huge natural resources, focused in Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and to a lesser extent Uzbekistan, mean it is
most definitely in investors’ sights, even if, as Mr Denison suggests,
"the big players are holding off until the time is right".

AXA Published Insurance Lists

AXA PUBLISHED INSURANCE LISTS
By H. Asatrian, Prague

AZG Armenian Daily
14/04/2007

After "New York Life" insurance company made payments to the
descendants of the Armenian Genocide victims, who had ensured their
lives of their property, the turn has come to AXA insurance company,
France. In result of talks between American Armenian jurists AXA
undertook obligation to pay $17.5 million to the descendants of the
Armenian Genocide victims. $3 million of that sum will be paid to the
fund of Armenian communities, and the remaining 14,5 million will be
distributed among the descendants.

According to information received from a renowned Armenian lawyer
in the USA Vardges Egiazarian, about 5 or 6 thousand people will
receive compensations. The insurance payments list is available at
from April 1 to October 1. Those
who find the name of their relatives in the list have to address
the company with a relevant request. The list is also available at

Vard ges Egiazarian also informed that our compatriots can visit
, leave information about their families in the period
of the Armenian genocide and learn much more about the tragic events.

www.armenianinsurancesettlement.com
www.armenianinsuranceaxa.com/listeaxa.pdf
www.centerar.org

Pipeline Talks With GDF Not Suspended: Turkish Minister

PIPELINE TALKS WITH GDF NOT SUSPENDED: TURKISH MINISTER

Agence France Presse — English
April 11, 2007 Wednesday

Turkey has not suspended talks with Gaz de France (GDF) over the
proposed acquisition by the French group of a stake in a major gas
pipeline project, Energy Minister Hilmi Guler said on Wednesday.

"Nabucco (the pipeline) is a very important project for us and the
process is continuing as normal. Gaz de France has not been suspended
from the project," Guler was quoted by Turkish television as telling
reporters here.

A press report claimed last Thursday that the talks had been suspended
because of a political row sparked by French pressure to label Turkish
action against Armenians during World War I as genocide.

The consortium building Nabucco is seeking a sixth partner for the
six-billion-dollar (4.5-billion-euro) project, with GDF seen as the
leading candidate.

Guler said that Turkey would take a final decision on the sixth partner
"according to its national interests."

He said that economic, strategic and political interests, including
France’s stance on the Armenian genocide issue, would be taken into
account when choosing.

The current five-company Nabucco consortium involving BOTAS plans to
build a 3,300-kilometre (2,000-mile) pipeline that will carry natural
gas from the Middle East and Central Asia to the European Union via
Turkey and the Balkans, bypassing Russia.

The other partners in Nabucco are Austria’s oil and gas group OMV,
Hungary’s MOL, Bulgaria’s Bulgargaz and Romania’s Transgaz.