Zenit News Agency, Italy
July 2 2005
Military Conflicts Losing Steam
New Report Gives Some Grounds for Optimism
COLLEGE PARK, Maryland, JULY 2, 2005 (Zenit.org).- In spite of fears
about global insecurity, the number of armed conflicts continues to
decline. An overview of the world situation was published June 1 by
the University of Maryland’s Center for International Development and
Conflict Management.
Authored by Monty Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr, the report, “Peace
and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts,
Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy,” notes a number of
positive trends. Among them:
— A decline in the global magnitude of armed conflict, following a
peak in the early 1990s. Major wars are down from 12 at the end of
2002 to eight in early 2005. And, according to the report’s
calculations, the general magnitude of global warfare has decreased
by more than 60% since peaking in the mid-1980s, falling by the end
of 2004 to its lowest level since the late 1950s. In early 2005 there
were 18 countries with ongoing major armed conflicts, and in two of
these there were two ongoing wars, for a total of 20 major armed
conflicts in the world.
— Most democratic regimes established during the 1980s and 1990s
have endured despite political and economic crises. Moreover, there
has been an increase in action by popular forces, such as Bolivia,
Georgia, the Philippines and Ukraine, to promote democratic
principles and hold leaders accountable.
— In the Middle East, democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq have
gained support, and small steps have been taken toward political
reform in other Arab autocracies.
— Ethnic-based wars for independence, a significant threat to civil
peace in the 1990s, have continued to decline to their lowest level
since 1960. In the 2001-2004 period, 13 major self-determination
conflicts were settled or contained, offset by a half-dozen new or
renewed campaigns.
— Repression and political discrimination against ethnic minorities
have declined significantly, coinciding with the dramatic decline in
autocratic regimes since the late 1980s. Since 1950, the number of
minorities benefiting from policies aimed at remedying past political
discrimination has increased fivefold.
The report warned: “These positive trends are no warrant for
unqualified optimism about the future of world peace.” For example,
there is no guarantee that the strategies that have brought about the
recent improvements will work in the future, the report said.
Moreover, there are difficulties in achieving the level of
international cooperation needed to overcome the challenges to peace.
Regional trends
The report uses a system of red and yellow flags to draw attention to
areas of potential conflict. The 2005 edition gives a red flag to 31
out of 161 countries surveyed, down from 34 in the 2003 report.
Seventeen African countries draw a red flag. Other danger spots are
Armenia, Cambodia, Haiti, Iran, Lebanon and Pakistan.
Another 51 countries are yellow-flagged, of which 19 are in Africa
south of the Sahara, 10 in North Africa and the Middle East, and 12
in the Asia-Pacific region. In short, the report observes, “half the
world’s countries have serious weaknesses that call for international
scrutiny and engagement.”
One region that is particularly worrying is Africa. “African
countries have generally low capacity for conflict management and
continue to face serious and complex challenges to peace and
stability in 2005,” the report said. Yet, it noted that progress has
been made in increasing regional cooperation. As well, there are
important differences within the region.
Moreover, the one thing distinguishing Africa from other regions of
the world is the newness of its state system, the report said. All
but four of the 50 African countries gained their independence in the
latter half of the 20th century. “State building is no simple task,”
the report observed, “and the building of modern, viable states has
everywhere, and in all times, been fraught with enormous
difficulties.”
Muslim countries, meanwhile, were seen as having a profile comparable
to that of the African countries, with a large number marked out as
sources of potential conflict. Unlike in Africa, however, armed
conflict in Muslim regions has declined by more than 60% since 1991,
a trend similar to the overall global reduction.
Asia is also a trouble spot. Along with Africa it accounts for most
of the world’s major armed conflicts since the end of the Cold War.
In South America, several countries have been rocked by economic and
financial crises leading to mass demonstrations and the resignations
of elected leaders. In a change with the past, this time the military
forces have generally stood aside, the report noted.
Terrorism
The report noted that terrorism, though it receives a lot of media
attention, causes relatively few deaths compared to other conflicts.
There have been 10 incidents in the last seven years that have caused
more than 100 deaths. During the 1990s there were about 300 deaths
per year by international terrorism and 3,000 deaths per annum by
acts of local terrorism.
In contrast, there were more than 300,000 deaths per annum in warfare
in the 1990s. Most of the victims were noncombatants. The report does
acknowledge the potential for danger if terrorists obtain weapons of
mass destruction, but the probability of this happening remains hard
to evaluate.
Overall, the report concluded, even though terrorism causes much
fear, “our greatest fears can be realized when the state becomes the
terrorist, or when the powerful weapons created by the state fall
into the hands of the evildoer.”
Challenges ahead
The report also outlined a number of challenges that lie ahead. These
include:
— the legacy of wounded societies and failing states as they emerge
from years of destructive conflict.
– the unleashed surplus of war personnel and materiel that is
flooding the global market. This not only fuels organized crime, but
in general creates security problems.
— the ghettoization of large areas of the world where deepening
poverty and deteriorating social conditions marginalize entire
populations and severely limit their access to the benefits of the
global economy.
— the severe inequality in the distribution of wealth and resources
that contributes to the maintenance of autocratic regimes and the
rise of terrorism and insurgencies throughout the Muslim world.
— the accountability and transparency of postwar regimes and the
implementation of peace accords and integration of disenfranchised
populations.
Benedict XVI, in his address May 12 to the diplomatic corps
accredited to the Holy See, noted his own origins in having lived in
a country burdened by war. He stated: “I am particularly sensitive to
dialogue between all human beings in order to overcome every kind of
conflict and tension and to make our earth an earth of peace and
brotherhood.”
He urged Christians and political leaders to combine their efforts
“to achieve a peaceful society, to overcome the temptation of
confrontation between cultures, races and worlds that are different.”
The Pope noted that the Church continues to proclaim and to defend
fundamental human rights, which too often continue to be violated in
many regions. And he pledged: “Rest assured that the Catholic Church
will continue to offer to cooperate, in her own province and with her
own means, to safeguard the dignity of every person and to serve the
common good.”