Author: Chalian Meline

PLEA DEAL REACHED FOR OHIO MAN ARRESTED OUTSIDE OBAMA EVENT

WTTE
Aug 19 2008
OH

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Prosecutors have reached a plea agreement with
an Ohio man who was accused of carrying an unlawful knife outside an
Iowa hotel where presidential candidate Barack Obama and his family
stayed during a campaign visit in July 2007.

Armenian native Davit Zakaryan is expected to plead guilty to a simple
misdemeanor charge of interference with official acts.

Prosecutors this month dismissed the knife charge as part of a
plea deal. Wapello County attorney Allen Cook says that under the
agreement, Zakaryan will get a 30-day suspended sentence and pay a
minimum fine. He will not have to serve any time in jail unless he
violates terms set by the court.

Zakaryan was living in Cincinnati but selling campaign memorabilia
in Iowa.

TURKEY’S ‘CAUCASUS ALLIANCE’ PROPOSAL: HOW LIKELY IS ITS SUCCESS? (1)
By Guner Ozkan

Today’s Zaman
Aug 19 2008
Turkey

Amid desperate EU attempts and increasingly tough words from the US
to Moscow for an immediate cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian
forces in the war between Russia and Georgia, Turkey has suggested
the establishment of the "Caucasus Alliance."

Turkey is surely acting in good faith, as it has, with some
reservations, good economic, political and social relationships with
both Moscow and Tbilisi; it seeks a durable peace on its doorstep. So
what does the Turkish proposal include? How likely is its success in
a region as complex as the Caucasus, and why?

Goals and means of the ‘alliance’

Though still in the process of creation, after prompt visits to Moscow
and Tbilisi Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan outlined the
purpose and content of the Caucasus Alliance. Its main objective is
to establish permanent peace and security in the region by bringing
all regional states together in a joint formation. To this end,
it envisages a structure in which regional states are expected
once again to reassure each other of respect of state sovereignty,
restraint from the use and threat of force, the inviolability of
state borders and non-harmful economic and energy security in their
common space of the Caucasus. Principles such as state sovereignty,
inviolability of borders and so on in the formation will take their
main references from the charter of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia, Turkey and all other
Caucasian states are members.

Erdogan is seeing that the establishment of lasting peace and security
is the principal aim here, and he believes that this goal can be
achieved through the increase of economic cooperation among regional
states. In order to better present this idea, he gave the examples
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) and
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) projects as economic ventures contributing
significantly to regional peace and security. He pointed out the
necessity to develop more such projects and to expand them in such
a way that would connect all peoples in the Caucasus.

Russia and Georgia appear to have accepted the new formation in
principle, and the foreign ministries of the three states are going to
work on the details, as Turkey gets ready to offer the plan first to
Azerbaijan and Armenia and then to the EU for their participation. The
Turkish side is particularly hopeful that the Caucasus Alliance in
the offing will resolve the other most important regional security
issue, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Baku and Yerevan, once
and for all.

Interdependence as security solution

In fact, the proposal Turkey is now presenting is a method that
has been discussed in international relations security studies for
years, mainly between liberal and realist security thinkers. Turkey’s
suggestion of an "alliance" for the Caucasus takes its logical base
from liberal views on security solutions that have developed primarily
as responses to those of the state-centric realist perspectives in
interstate relations.

Of others, neo-liberal institutionalists principally suggest that there
are various diverse and important actors in domestic and international
levels, which function outside the strict control of governments.

Intergovernmental organizations as well as private ones, with their
diverse agendas, can and do influence governments’ decisions, pushing
them to cooperate among themselves further and thereby allowing states
to get over a number of inter and intrastate disputes. Basically, the
liberal school suggests that the presence of complex interdependence
among societies and states allows multiple channels to open
between those actors in their trans-governmental and transnational
relations. This "complex web of linkages" between formal and informal
actors deals with a myriad of issues in which the military security
and/or survival of the state prioritized by the realists is not
supposed to take top priority. Rather, it is assumed that if or when
states manage to construct a complex interdependence among themselves,
such as improved trade relations and joint economic projects in a
particular region, the risk of the use of military force will be,
to a large extent, avoided.

Realist perspectives on security, on the other hand, do not share
much of those liberal views on security. For them, though complex
interdependence is a source of cooperation and an important method
for problem solving, or at least decreasing the tension among states,
the same sources are the scarce commodities for which individuals
and states often strive for control, paving the way for inter and
intrastate military conflicts. Indeed, realists argue that states
always seek to maximize their power in line with their national
interests in economic, military and security issues and minimize the
risks in the same matters. Realists see that complex interdependence
can only work so long as all parties are satisfied, and yet this is
often impossible to succeed in and hard to sustain. So interdependence
resembles no more than a fierce competition for power and domination
over scarce resources. As continuous rivalry over scarce resources
is a never-ending phenomenon, conflict cannot always be avoided. In
this never-ending state of rivalry, intergovernmental organizations,
for the realists, are no more than instruments in the hands of states
to promote their national/security interests.

*Assistant Professor Guner Ozkan is a Caucasus expert at the
Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO-USAK)
and a lecturer at Mugla University.

ABC Newspaper , Spain
Aug 13 2008

Georgian leader’s "worst’ decision" was to use force

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili made one of his worst decisions
when he chose to use force to solve a problem his country has had
since 1991. He did not take into account the likelihood that Russia
would behave in the worst way – as it did – and respond with such a
level of violence that a nation as small as Georgia had no chance of
resisting. After observing for decades how Russia dealt with the
problem of Chechnya, it was not reasonable to hope that the Kremlin
would behave with any moderation regarding a region like South
Ossetia, whose inhabitants it claimed to be defending. Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin with his own style of a forceful Russian military
response, did not have a moment’s doubt when he ordered the Army to
respond as forcefully as possible, with no concern for possible
civilian victims.

After a precarious ceasefire, the world is now rediscovering a
territory that is small in area but huge in complexity and full of
political and military land mines. Russia is trying to maintain its
monopoly on the transit of hydrocarbon fuels that come from the
Caspian Sea and Central Asia, crossing Georgia -because the alternate
route through Armenia is closed by Turkey – and it does not want its
southern border with the Muslim Middle East to be controlled by hands
it considers unstable. Kremlin leaders are especially alarmed over the
possibility that Georgia -and even worse, Ukraine – might enter the
Atlantic Alliance. After this short and intense war, it is hard to
determine whether the Alliance will try to speed up any ties with
Georgia, because the predictable Russian reaction could not worsen the
already-delicate NATO-Russian relations or, fearing that the situation
will be aggravated, they will decide to place Georgia’s NATO
aspirations on hold for a time. The Russian offensive, which President
Medvedev announced had ended yesterday, has given the West an idea of
Russia’s military capacity and its determination to use it when it
sees its interests threatened.

Russia’s petroleum wealth has revitalized the country’s economy, and
the long era of "Putinism" has restored classic imperial images, for
which NATO should prepare for a period of serious instability with its
principal neighbour: giving in to Russia’s demands could undermine our
credibility, but resisting what Russia is doing has a price that we
will have to be ready to pay.

Most of the consequences of this crisis will fall on the Atlantic
Alliance and the European Union because the UN has again gotten mired
down in its own contradictions. The origin of the Security Council’s
right of veto lie in the victory in World War II, and it is useless to
negotiate condemnations or demands when the country at whom they are
directed has this right. Nor has the UN done anything to defend
International law in the case of independence for Serbian Kosovo
region, the first effects of which we are seeing in the case of South
Ossetia. The UN would not be able to deny the Ossetians what it has
conceded to the Kosovar Albanians, and it is quite probable that fear
that this tendency would spread was one of the reasons Saakashvili
made such an erroneous decision. Maybe it is now impossible for
Georgia to regain sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as the
president had promised the most nationalist faction of his
followers. Russia has destroyed the military capability of his
country, not to mention the immediate costs. Recent plans to for new
gas pipelines across Georgia have gone up in smoke.

[translated from Spanish]

WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 15, 2008 Friday

FIGHTING ONE’S WAY OUT OF COMMONWEALTH
Foreign peacekeepers might appear in Georgian conflict areas

by Aleksei Malashenko

WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR SELF-PROCLAIMED REPUBLICS MAY STEM FROM THE
EVENTS IN SOUTH OSSETIA?; The latest developments in South Ossetia
prove peacekeeping efforts fragile.

First, this is a precedent that allows for outright hostilities after
years of negotiations and peacekeeping efforts. What it means for
Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and even the Trans-Dniester region is
clear: war remains an acceptable (but not necessarily effective) means
of reintegration for the states split by separatist tendencies. The
South Ossetian precedent exposed fragile nature of the talks that
exist parallel to war preparations.

Second, this latest war on the post-Soviet territory spells an end of
the Commonwealth. Relations between Russia and Georgia bear an
increasingly stronger resemblance to the Azerbaijani-Armenian
relations. Yes, Russia will be feared. In the meantime, it is this (or
analogous) fear that compels former Soviet republics to keep their
distance from Russia and seek powerful allies in the international
community.

Third, the Georgian-Russian war became a strike at President Dmitry
Medvedev who had to go public with quite serious decisions in the
premier’s absence. Medvedev deserves credit for doing so without
unnecessary hysterics. It was clear that he was disturbed and upset
indeed.

The German foreign minister admitted insecurity in the matter of who
the guilty party was. Information from Tskhinvali makes it plain that
it was the Georgians who shed the first blood and that the Georgian
troops were not always an example of humanity. What happened in South
Ossetia is a humanitarian catastrophe.

The enemies will meet for negotiations again one day. Arranging the
talks will be a chore, but they are the only option.

And since they are patently unable to settle the conflict all by
themselves, the involved parties may even find it necessary to invite
some respected and independent intermediaries or even peacekeepers.

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 12, 2008, p. 3

guardian.co.uk, UK

Behind the tanks in Ossetia are key oil and gas pipelines, writes Alex
Brett Alex Brett
The Observer, Sunday August 17 2008

When Russian tanks poured into South Ossetia, it was the clearest
turning point in Russia’s relations with the West since the fall of
the Berlin Wall: Russia not only managed to destabilise a pro-Western
regime but, crucially, demonstrated to its neighbours how defenceless
they are against incursions by its armed forces.

For years, the US and the EU have been looking for ways of
circumventing Russia for energy, especially in the light of the
controversial cuts in supply it made to Ukraine, Belarus and the Czech
Republic. The opening of the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) from
Azerbaijan to Turkey should successfully enable the flow of 16 billion
cubic metres (bcm) of gas into Europe without Moscow’s interference.
However, with Georgia being the only viable country for the pipeline
to go through – as Azerbaijan is technically at war with Armenia – the
current crisis showed energy majors operating in the Caucasus how
tenuous their grip on resources could become should the Kremlin
intervene in the affairs of its neighbours again. The SCP was closed
for a time during the latest violence.

This is of particular concern to BP, which owns 25.5 per cent of the
SCP, and is already in dispute with Moscow over the status of
subsidiary TNK-BP.

Nick Day, chief executive of risk consultancy Diligence, says Russia
had been using its energy supply as a tool of its foreign policy and
that ‘the greatest threat to Western companies in the region is
renationalisation in former Soviet countries, which has already been
taking place in Russia. As a result of this conflict, countries
neighbouring Russia may offer oil and gas contracts to Moscow as an
olive branch.’

While a spokesman for the EU commission says the situation in Georgia
meant that the EU ‘had no time to waste’ in dealing with energy
security, the instability of the region covering the SCP threatens to
scupper Europe’s policy of diversifying its energy supply, giving
Russia a much stronger hand. This is chiefly due to the undesirable
nature, as Europe sees it, of the most viable alternatives – Iran,
whose nuclear programme is a bone of contention, and Iraq, whose
current instability is cause for great concern.

Europe has to look at the viability of projects already on the table
for its long-term energy supply. The Nabucco project takes gas from
the Shah Deniz gas fields in Azerbaijan, starting from Turkey and
ranging into the heart of Europe, with the potential for inputs from
Iran and Iraq. By contrast, the South Stream project starts directly
from Russia, taking Gazprom gas through new EU member states Romania
and Bulgaria and provides ease of access to greater resources. Nabucco
aims to provide 10bcm of gas from 2013 rising to 31bcm in 2021,
whereas the South Stream aims to supply 30bcm on completion, forecast
to be in 2013.

However, the Georgian conflict has caused great damage to the
viability of Nabucco. As Charles Ebinger, director of the Energy
Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution, points out, ‘the
South Stream project has been strengthened by the current situation
and Nabucco may fall by the wayside’. To that extent; ‘Russia has the
whip hand over Europe in terms of energy policy’. Ebinger reflects the
thoughts of most experts. Valery Nesterov, energy analyst at Troika
Dialog, says: ‘the resource base for the South Stream is stronger than
that of Nabucco. The South Stream has a head start; Nabucco has been
dealt another blow.’ Nesterov argues that any plans to supply the
Nabucco pipeline from Turkmenistan are not viable as the Turkmens are
already supplying around 90bcm of energy to Iran, Russia and China.

The geographic positioning of Turkey and Russia as the only suppliers
direct to the continent mean the EU’s bargaining position looks
weak. Furthermore, Turkish-Russian co-operation is proceeding at a
gallop. This was confirmed by Ankara’s silence on Georgia and comments
from the Turkish energy ministry suggesting they would ‘increase
supplies from Russia and Iran’ in the event of a shortfall from the
SCP. Nesterov says ‘deeper co-operation between Russia and Turkey is
likely. It is to both countries’ advantage.’

So the South Stream, in terms of viability, can provide guaranteed
energy to Europe over the longer term, while Nabucco is beset by
unresolved problems. When the only alternatives are gas from Iran and
the Persian Gulf, energy from Russia seems to reconcile Europe’s
regional strategic interests with security of supply at a smaller
diplomatic cost. But it is only the lesser of two evils.

KARABAKH FOREIGN MINISTRY EXPRESSES CONDOLENCES TO RELATIVES OF PEOPLE WHO DIED IN SOUTH OSSETIA

ARMENPRESS
Aug 14, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 14, ARMENPRESS: Nagorno Karabakh Foreign Ministry
made today a statement expressing its condolences to the relatives
and friends of the innocent peaceful people who became the victims
of the tragic events in South Ossetia.

"People of Karabakh who felt the pain and bitterness of ethnic
cleansing and war on their own skin understand the tragedy of the
people who felt that awe. We strictly condemn any use of force in the
solution of the conflicts and call on the sides to solve the disputes
in peaceful and political way.

We grieve the death of the innocent people and wish strength to their
relatives and friends to overcome the tragedy," the statement said.

US RENDERS ASSISTANCE TO NAGORNO-KARABAKH SEPARATIST REGIME: AZERBAIJANI MP

TREND Information
13.08.08 16:13
Azerbaijan

NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Azerbaijan, Baku, 13 August / Trend News corr. R.Novruzov / The United
States is the one country where the Parliament renders assistance to
Nagorno-Karabakh separatist regime, Gultakin Hajiyeva, Deputy Chairman
of the Azerbaijani standing Parliamentary Commission on International
Relations and Parliamentary Ties and member of Azerbaijani Delegation
to PACE, said.

"Since getting independence we understood that the United States
differs from the country that we idealized initially," Hajiyeva said.

The United States had not cancelled the 907th amendment so far and
attempts to calm Azerbaijan by holding moratorium.

According to Hajiyeva, the United States and Azerbaijan are strategic
partners. "Compared to other OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, the United
States is preferred partner for Azerbaijan," Hajiyeva stated.

The conflict between the two countries of the South Caucasus began in
1988 due to Armenian territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan
lost the control over Nagorno- Karabakh (excluding Shusha and
Khojali) to December 1991. Shusha, Khojali and seven regions had
been occupied. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire
agreement at which time the active hostilities ended. The Co-Chairs
of the OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, France, and the US) are currently
holding peaceful negotiations.

OSCE Minsk Group co-chaired by USA, Russia, France is engaged in
peace settling of the conflict.

COUNCIL OF CHURCHES USA TO MEET IN DENVER

Thousand Oaks Acorn
August 14, 2008
USA

Plans are underway for the annual General Assembly of the National
Council of Churches USA and Church World Service in Denver from
Nov. 11 to 13.

The theme of the 2008 General Assembly is, "Jesus Said . . . Whoever
is Not Against You is For You," from Luke 9:50.

The theme focuses on the words of Jesus, a response to his disciple’s
complaints about a man they didn’t know who was casting out demons
in Jesus’ name.

The words invoke the brokenness of a world in which suspicion and
distrust govern relationships and create obstacles to church unity.

Topics planned for discussion at the General Assembly raise questions
about the Christian obligation to be good neighbors: immigration
reform, the meaning of Christian unity in a pluralistic era and the
"phobias" that stand in the way of ecumenical unity, racial justice
and interfaith dialogue.

Registration and hotel information forms may be downloaded from

The registration fee is $250 until Sept. 29, when the price increases
to $275.

The assembly will be presided over by the president of the National
Council of Churches, H.E. Archbishop Vicken Aykazian, who represents
the Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern). The assembly
is composed of delegates and visitors from the 35 member communions
of the NCC and CWS.

Young adults from member communions will gather in Denver prior to
the General Assembly for an agenda that is in the planning process. As
in past years, young adults will form a group of stewards to support
the logistics and business of the General Assembly. An application
form for stewards can be downloaded at the website listed above.

In addition, a women’s caucus and luncheon will be held early in the
assembly schedule.

DUBLIN RESTAURATEUR FEARS FOR HIS FAMILY’S LIFE
By Sarah Neville

Herald.ie
Wednesday August 13 2008
Ireland

A DUBLIN based Georgian restaurant owner is frantically trying to get
his family back to the city after they travelled home for a summer
break to their home country.

His relatives made the trip to Georgia for a break and were there
when the conflict with Russia began.

George Motsonelidze, the owner of Nikala on Dublin’s Talbot Street,
has been looking for possible flights to get members of his family,
including his mother, back to Ireland.

What was supposed to have been a break from the cold and wet summer
we are experiencing in Ireland has now become a source of great
worry. George’s family travelled to their home country in search of
sunshine and to visit old friends and have now found themselves in
a country embroiled in international conflict.

He is still worried for his relatives, despite an outline peace
deal brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the early hours
of today.

The deal would end fighting sparked by Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili’s decision to launch a military offensive last week in
the pro-Russian region of South Ossetia.

Bombing

"Saakashvili was mad to go and bomb a town in the middle of the night,"
a senior official in Sarkozy’s office told reporters.

"He gambled, he lost," the official said, adding that Russia’s
reaction was too heavy-handed and Moscow was increasingly perceived
as the aggressor.

The Dublin-based restaurant owner is now trying to arrange flights
to get his family home.

George’s task is made even more complicated by the fact that there are
no direct flights between Dublin and Georgia. He said his relatives
will need to travel to Armenia, which is further south, to get a
flight home.

Getting out of the country shouldn’t be a problem because according
to another Georgian living in Dublin, Mukran Mikaeirdze, work and
other services are carrying on as normal in the areas that are not
being bombed.

"They all have Irish passports," George said of his relatives.

Mukran, who is a friend of George’s, is keeping in close contact with
his family. "The situation is calm but mobilised," he said.

The Georgian said that he is glued to the news channels trying to
get each update as the situation continues.

He added that the Irish Georgian community were bonding together and
praying at the Christian Orthodox Church on the Navan Road in Dublin
for an end to the violence.

SAVING GEORGIA
by Ariel Cohen

Heritage.org
August 12, 2008
DC

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that Moscow is putting
on hold hostilities in Georgia, apparently due to the pleas from the
U.S. and Europe to cease aggression against Georgia. Many questions
remain open, including:

Signature and stability of the cease-fire; The timing of the Russian
withdrawal from sovereign Georgian territory; Recognition of full
Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity; and Terminating
attempts by Moscow to remove Georgian leadership by force.

The threats to Georgia’s political survival and to Southern Caucasus
states’ independence have not disappeared, and Russia’s massive use
of force against its small neighbor remains appalling and deeply
troubling.

As the Olympic Games opened Friday, August 8, the tragic and
ominous conflict between Georgia and Russia erupted as well. Moscow
responded with overwhelming force to the Georgian fire on Tskhinvali,
capital of South Ossetia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin flew from
the Beijing Olympics to Vladikavkaz, taking control of the military
operations. Putin sidelined his successor, Dmitry Medvedev, thereby
leaving no doubt as to who is in charge.

The 58th Russian Army of the North Caucasus Military District
rolled into South Ossetia, reinforced by the 76th Airborne "Pskov"
Division. The Black Sea Fleet blockaded Georgian coast and shelled
the strategic port of Poti. Cossacks from the neighboring Russian
territories moved in to combat the Georgians as well.

Following the third day of heavy fighting, and after rejecting the
Georgian cease-fire offer, Russia has struck far beyond contested
South Ossetia, opening up a second front in Abkhazia. Pushing deep
into Georgia, the Russian Army has seized military bases and several
towns including Senaki and Zugdidi, as well as the key Georgian
city of Gori, the birthplace of the Soviet tyrant Joseph Stalin. By
taking Gori and the east-west highway passing through the town, the
Russians have effectively cut the country in half, severing its main
transportation artery.

Russian forces have also bombed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the
only avenue for exporting Central Asian energy, which is independent of
Russian control. Throwing aside any pretense of "stopping a genocide,"
the Russian troops pushed forward and, on Monday evening, were 20
kilometers away from the Georgian capital Tbilisi. There is a good
chance that these troops will advance on Tbilisi in the next 24 hours.

Russia’s goals for the war with Georgia are far-reaching and include:

Expulsion of Georgian troops and termination of Georgian sovereignty in
South Ossetia and Abkhazia; "Regime change" by bringing down President
Mikheil Saakashvili and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in
Tbilisi; Preventing Georgia from joining NATO and sending a strong
message to Ukraine that its insistence on NATO membership may lead to
war and/or its dismemberment; Shifting control of the Caucasus, and
especially over strategic energy pipelines, by controlling Georgia;
and Recreating a 19th-century-style sphere of influence in the former
Soviet Union, by the use of force if necessary.

Rebuilding the Russian Empire: The Challenge to Europe’s Status Quo

Russian relations with Georgia were the worst among the post-Soviet
states. In addition to fanning the flames of separatism in South
Ossetia since 1990, Russia militarily supported separatists in Abkhazia
(1992-93), which is also a part of Georgian territory. Russia also
had a cantankerous relationship with then-Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze, the former Soviet foreign minister, whom hardliners
in Moscow blamed for the Soviet withdrawal from Central and Eastern
Europe. In the 1990s, there were two assassination attempts against
Shevardnadze, and elements of the Russian state, such as secret
services or military intelligence, came under suspicion both times.

Russia has long prepared its aggression against Georgia’s pro-Western
President Mikheil Saakashvili, in order to undermine his rule and
prevent Georgia from joining NATO. Despite claims about oppressed
minority status, the separatist South Ossetian leadership is mostly
ethnic Russians, many of whom served in the KGB, the Soviet secret
police, the Russian military, or the Soviet communist party.

In recent years, Moscow granted the majority of Abkhazs and South
Ossetians Russian citizenship and moved to establish close economic
and bureaucratic ties with the two separatist republics, effectively
enacting a creeping annexation of both territories.

The use of Russian citizenship to create a "protected" population
residing in a neighboring state to undermine its sovereignty is a
slippery slope that is now leading to a redrawing of the former Soviet
borders. Brave voices asserted that Russia lost the moral right for
peacekeeping in Abkhazia and South Ossetia when, circumventing the
leadership of sovereign Georgia, it

became close friends with the de facto organs of power of these
self-declared entities. Now, casting aside any decency, bringing
airborne units into Georgia, bombing territory that isn’t even part of
the former South Ossetian Autonomous Republic, Russia … has become
a party to an armed conflict.

No valiant Western voice issued this statement. As has so frequently
been the case throughout history, the above-mentioned statement was
made by a pitifully small but morally righteous group of Russian
human rights activists, led by Lev Ponomarev, Sergei Kovalyov, and
Yelena Bonner (Andrey Sakharov’s widow). The group proceeded to call
for Russia to be expelled from the Group of Eight (G-8), and for the
United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE), and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE)
to impose sanctions on Russia.

Chilling Language, Strategic Actions

Aggression against Georgia also sends a strong signal to
Ukraine and Europe. Russia is playing a chess game of offense and
intimidation. Former president and current Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin spoke last spring about Russia "dismembering" Ukraine, another
NATO candidate, and detaching the Crimea, a peninsula that was
transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 when both were integral
parts of the Soviet Union.

Today, up to 50 percent of Ukrainian citizens speak Russian as
their first language, and ethnic Russians comprise approximately
one-fifth of Ukraine’s population. With encouragement from Moscow,
these people may be induced to follow South Ossetia and Abkhazia to
Mother Russia’s bosom. Yet Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders, such as
President Victor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko,
have expressed a desire to join NATO, while pro-Moscow Ukrainian
Party of Regions effectively opposes membership. NATO opponents in
Ukraine are greatly encouraged by Russia’s action against Georgia.

Beyond this, Russia is demonstrating that it can sabotage American and
European Union (EU) declarations about integrating Commonwealth of
Independent States members into Western structures such as NATO. By
attempting to accomplish regime change in Georgia, Moscow is also
trying to gain control of the energy and transportation corridor
which connects Central Asia and Azerbaijan with the Black Sea and
ocean routes overseas–for oil, gas and other commodities.

A pro-Russian regime in Georgia will also bring the strategic
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum (Turkey) gas
pipeline under Moscow’s control. Such a development would undermine
any options of pro-Western orientation for Azerbaijan and Armenia,
along with any chances of resolving their conflict based on diplomacy
and Western-style cooperation.

The West’s Hour of Truth

The United States and its European allies must take all available
diplomatic measures to stop Russian aggression. To uphold the
international order, to repel aggression, and to advance our national
interests and those of the West at large, the U.S. should:

Send Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Europe to coordinate
support for condemning Russian aggression in Georgia among our
allies. The U.S. and Europe should lead the world in demanding that
Russia withdraw all its troops from the territory of Georgia and
recognize Georgia’s territorial integrity; Convey to Russia that its
invasion of Georgia has forfeited its membership in the G-8 and may
derail its aspirations to join the World Trade Organization and to host
the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, only 200 kilometers from Georgia;
Push for great powers to speak out, including Germany, France, India,
Brazil, Japan, Korea, Turkey, and possibly China. This support would
"globalize" the condemnation; Continue pressure within the United
Nations Security Council and the General Assembly to achieve a
resolution that will voice full and unequivocal support for Georgian
territorial integrity, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and for
Russian troop withdrawal; Send international observers to Georgia
from OSCE, the EU and the United Nations in order to expand mediation
efforts to withdraw Russian forces; Begin talks at a neutral forum
such as the OSCE to finally settle the South Ossetian matter as well
as future Abkhazian problems. This can be done by granting these
territories full autonomy within the Georgian state, as Tbilisi
has repeatedly suggested; Reiterate NATO’s position on Ukraine,
which holds that the country will become a member of NATO through the
extension of a Membership Action Plan and that the member states look
forward to assessing Ukraine’s progress at the December 2008 meeting;
Announce the deployment of amphibious ships into the Black Sea as a
non-combatant Evacuation Operations, which will be coordinated with
all Black Sea littoral states; and Offer humanitarian assistance to
Georgia, such as aiding the wounded and refugees, and evacuating the
friends of the U.S. if necessary.

Beyond this, the United States, its allies, and other countries need to
send a strong signal to Moscow that creating 19th-century-style spheres
of influence and redrawing the borders of the former Soviet Union
is a danger to world peace. The U.S. and its European allies should
communicate to Moscow that its aggression will not stand and cannot
be accomplished without irreparable harm to Russia’s international
standing for decades to come. The U.S., its allies and Europe must
do everything possible to stop the aggression against Georgia.

Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian
Studies and International Energy Security in the Douglas and Sarah
Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn
and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The
Heritage Foundation.