TURKEY ONE OF GLOBALIZATION’S WINNERS, SAYS EXPERT
Yonca Poyraz DoÐan
Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Nov 12 2007
Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council of the
United States, is optimistic about Turkey and its future despite its
having faced so many economic and political difficulties.
"I’ve seen this country go through economic ups and downs. I’ve seen
it go through periods of time when the democratic process was in one
way or another moving forward or not. Interestingly, at a time when
I’m worried about US-Turkish relations, at a time when I’m really
worried about Turkish-European Union relations, I’m less worried
about Turkey itself," he says.
Kempe, with more than a quarter-century of distinguished work at the
Wall Street Journal behind him when he joined the Atlantic Council
in 2006, stresses that Turkey’s best future still lies in its being
integrated in Europe and with the West: "That’s still the best place
for it to be. The problem with being a bridge is people blow up
bridges and bridges crumble. It’s much better to be connected within
a community. Turkey will also have more influence in its region if it
can leverage the size and influence of Europe and the West behind it."
During a work visit to Ýstanbul Kempe set aside some time for Monday
Talk, also evaluating the historic meeting between Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoðan and US President George W. Bush on Nov.
5 that resulted in a US promise of cooperation against terrorism
perpetrated by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
What’s different about US policy this time that means Turkey can rest
assured the US will take the PKK issue much more seriously?
What you see now is that the president put his personal prestige at
stake. I think you’ll see more decisive action — and intelligence
support. Much of it you won’t see, but it will happen. Turks may not
get what many of them want: the leaders of the PKK rounded up by
American military, or Apache helicopters firing on a pickup truck
filled with PKK terrorists, but one will certainly see much closer
cooperation than we have had thus far.
The United States administration still doesn’t desire a cross-border
operation by Turkey, right?
President Abdullah Gul was very wise when he said we have not only an
Iraqi neighbor, but we also have an American neighbor. It has never
happened in the past that a NATO country has executed an incursion into
territory where another NATO country’s troops are operating. It is a
sensitive issue from that standpoint. The US certainly should have
been more forthright in taking on the PKK problem in northern Iraq
much sooner. I understand all the reasons why it hasn’t happened. The
north has been a relatively peaceful part of Iraq and problems for the
US are greater elsewhere. Some may also believe Kurdish insurgents
might be useful against Iran, though they are not desired against
Turkey. However, any major cross-border Turkish operation into Iraq
would be a mistake. It doesn’t really fix the problem. It could
radicalize Kurds within Turkey at a time when the AK Party has really
done more for Kurdish minority rights than perhaps any government
before. It could push off European Union membership even further.
Looking from the United States, what do you see in Turkey?
We’re facing an historic turning point in Turkey — that is a turning
point in Turkey’s internal politics, a turning point in Turkey’s
foreign policy, a turning point in its relationship with the United
States, a turning point in its relationship with the European Union.
All of historic nature, all coming together at the same time. This
is of huge importance to the United States and to Turkey’s neighbors.
Richard Holbrook, the veteran diplomat, told me that he considered
Turkey to be the frontline state of our current period and he compared
it to the role Germany played during the Cold War. It’s on the fault
line between extremists and moderate Islam, it’s on the fault line
between Europe and the Middle East, it’s on the fault line between
chaos and order. It’s on a number of fault lines. First and foremost,
Turkey has to decide what it is.
What do you think Turkey is?
Following the elections there is a totally new situation, where it’s
less the military that is the guarantor for secularism and democracy
and it’s more the AK Party that is the guarantor for secularism and
democracy. The AK Party has never had this much influence and power
before. Now it has to decide what it’s going to do with this. What
course is it going to choose? Thus far, I’m optimistic — but this
is the beginning.
Do you see any vulnerability in the situation?
As it is with many historic turning points, the situation is fragile.
You have a whole group of leaders who in the next few years will show
whether they’re determined to keep this country on a democratic and
secular direction. If so, this country has an exciting possibility of
truly being something quite unique, an example for others. I’ve seen
this country go through economic ups and downs. I’ve seen it go through
periods of time when the democratic process was in one way or another
moving forward or not. Interestingly, at a time when I’m worried
about US-Turkish relations, at a time when I’m really worried about
Turkish-European Union relations, I’m less worried about Turkey itself.
Why are you so optimistic about Turkey’s future?
I’ll say, as someone who worked for the Wall Street Journal for a
long time and has been watching this economy develop for a long time,
I think the most pleasant surprise to the world business community is
that the AK Party leadership has made this a more interesting place
to invest and a healthier economy. After the 2002 elections I don’t
think people were universally convinced that would be the case. So
far Turkey has been one of the winners of globalization. There are
a lot of losers out there. For all the problems Turkey is facing,
it seems to be finding a way. I’m really optimistic about Turkey and
its future. I hope Turkey is smart enough to know that its best future
still lies being integrated in Europe and integrated with the West.
That’s still the best place for it to be. The problem with being
a bridge is people blow up bridges and bridges crumble. It’s much
better to be connected within a community. Turkey will also have more
influence in its region if it can leverage the size and influence of
Europe and the West behind it.
You mentioned Turkey’s foreign policy as another turning point.
We’re seeing a development of a Turkish foreign policy. It’s a mature
country saying, "We have our own interests."
Doesn’t this make it a difficult partner for the United States?
Yes, but it also becomes a more important partner for the United
States because of the closer relationship it’s building with its
neighbors. We’ve left the unipolar world where the US was by far the
dominant power. We’re in a multi-polar world where the US is coming
to terms with the fact that it has to manage a number of different
interests if it wants to achieve its policy goals.
Do you think Turkey’s relations with the European Union and the United
States will recover soon?
Relations are threatening to turn sour both with the EU and the US
at the same [time] for the first time. It needs attention. Strains
with the EU are far more important. Whatever we’re going through in
US-Turkish relations, we’ll get over and we’ll be friends and will
work with each other again. The larger question is, will Turkey become
part of Europe and become a member of the European Union?
Do you think it will happen?
It’s long way off. We’re talking about 2014. A lot can happen between
now and 2014. What I worry about is what Turks and Europeans will
decide before we’ve gone through the process. Turkey brings Europe a
vibrant, large economy, which it needs to be competitive on the world
stage. It brings a relatively youthful country — desperately needed
in aging Europe. It gives Europe reach into neighboring economies:
the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Middle East.
Do you think the US government is still supportive of Turkey’s EU
membership?
Senior US officials consider Turkish membership of the European Union
to be the most important geopolitical action that the European Union
could take — even though only 9 percent of Turks like us at the
moment, if you believe the polls.
Why do you think Turkish public support for the US is so low?
It surprises me. I think Turks have forgotten how much the US has
stood on their side vis-a-vis the European Union. I think Turks have
forgotten it was the Americans who turned over PKK leader Abdullah
Ocalan. I think what is driving the relationship at the moment is
the PKK issue, is the Iraq issue. Bush in general isn’t popular in
the world, but it’s a mystery to me that the Unites States is less
popular in Turkey than almost any other country in the entire world.
Turkish people believe that the United States has planned the
establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq.
The US has been working very hard to keep an integrated, federal
Iraqi regime. The second-most-powerful politician in Iraq is Kurdish
— that’s the reality. In the United States there are many voices
who believe that Iraq, like Bosnia, will only work if you separate
the Sunnis and the Shias, because they are never going to get along
together — and that would then suggest that you will also need to
separate the Kurds. You may need a looser federal structure. Everyone
knows the most successful part of Iraq thus far has been the Kurdish
portion. It hasn’t been the conspiracy of the United States to move
things in that direction. It’s more of an outcome of a very ugly few
years in Iraq, where the Kurdish territory of Iraq has been the most
peaceful and most economically successful.
Why do you think this is so?
Partly because they were really acting quite separately from Iraq, even
during the period of Saddam. So this is not a totally new situation.
So the US wasn’t surprised by the situation in northern Iraq. Again,
Turkish people think that the reason the Kurdish leaders are so
powerful is because the US supports them.
If only the US was effective as the Turks give us credit for being!
If you look at the rest of Iraq and how ineffective the US has been
in trying to exercise its will, why would you think they would be any
more effective, then, in trying to create a Kurdish state? I don’t
think this has been the aim of US policy. The aim of US policy is to
make Iraq work, to reduce violence and to create a situation where
US troops can be brought home safely.
Does the ‘Armenian genocide’ resolution have a chance of coming to
the House floor?
The House committee’s approval of the resolution was the most
irresponsible thing that the newly Democratic Congress had done in
terms of foreign policy. It was irresponsible because we’re at such a
critical point in the US-Turkish relationship. And the relationship
between the United States and Turkey is one of the most important
bilateral relationships on Earth at the moment. This resolution has
been around forever. The fact that it’s being pushed forward at the
moment was irresponsible. It won’t now go to the House floor. Turkey
should give the Bush administration credit for bringing this to a dead
stop. So it gives Turkey an opportunity to look at its own history
and archives and to make conclusions, as the Turkish government said
that’s what it wants to do. And if Turkey does this, my view is that
the resolution will not come forward again.
[PROFILE]
Frederick Kempe
He became president and CEO of the Atlantic Council of the United
States in December 2006 after more than a quarter-century of
distinguished work at the Wall Street Journal, where he won national
and international prizes while serving in numerous management and
reportorial capacities. He is a Bloomberg columnist and a regular
commentator on television and radio in both Europe and the United
States. He has written three books that have been published in several
languages: "Divorcing the Dictator: America’s Bungled Affair with
Noriega," "Siberian Odyssey: A Voyage into the Russian Soul" and
"Father/Land, a Personal Search for the New Germany." He is currently
working on a fourth book, on the Cold War, in Berlin.
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