Author: Chalian Meline

THE PRESIDENTS CAN MEET BY THE END OF THE YEAR

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
14 Nov 08
Armenia

OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairman Bernard Facieses said it is not excluded
that by the end of the year the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
will meet again.

The diplomat added that it is up to the two presidents to come to
the decision; as for the mediators they are always ready to organize
the meeting.

Bernard Facieses considered the declaration signed in Moscow on
November 2, an important action towards the settlement of the conflict:
"The document runs that the conflict must be settled in compliance
with the international norms, which means it will be based on Helsinki
final act, which covers the principles of the rights to territorial
integrity and self-determination," the diplomat said and added that
the peaceful settlement of the conflict derives from the interests
of the whole region.

Facieses assessed Turkey’s activeness in the settlement process and
the relations with Armenia, as a "new stage in the life of the region".

Meanwhile he underscored that there is one format in the negotiations
on the settlement of Karabakh conflict, which is OSCE Minsk
Group. "Turkey is Minsk Group member country, and in that framework
they do their best to assist the settlement process. But in our view
there is one format in the negotiation process, as the Presidents
underscored in 0AMoscow, and that format is Minsk Group with the
Co-Chairmen," Bernard Facieses believes.

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRMEN ARRIVE IN STEPANAKERT

ArmInfo
2008-11-15 14:27:00

ArmInfo. Within the frames of a regional visit, OSCE Minsk Group
Co-chairmen Matthew Bryza (USA), Bernard Fassier (France) and Yuri
Merzlyakov (Russia) arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh, Saturday. As ArmInfo
own correspondent in Stepanakert reports, the mediators will meet
NKR President Bako Sahakyan and other officials of the republic.

November 14, 2008
Press Release
Western Prelacy of the Armenian Apostolic Church of America
H.E. Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian, Prelate
6252 Honolulu Avenue
La Crescenta, CA 91214
Tel: (818) 248-7737
Fax: (818) 248-7745
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:

20th ANNIVERSARY OF THE CONSECRATION OF
FORTY MARTYRS CHURCH

On Sunday, November 16th, the Orange County community will celebrate
the 20th anniversary of the consecration of Forty Martyrs Church. On this
occasion, H.E. Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian, Prelate, will celebrate
Divine Liturgy and deliver the sermon. The Prelate will be assisted at the
altar by parish pastor Rev. Fr. Hrant Yeretzian.
The 20th anniversary banquet, organized by the parish Pastor, Board
of Trustees, Ladies Auxiliary, and 20th anniversary committee, will take
place at "Gugasian" Hall on the evening of Saturday, November 15th.

MINISTER OF DIASPORA AFFAIRS HRANUSH HAKOBYAN
TO VISIT THE PRELACY

On the eve of the 11th annual Armenia Fund Telethon, in the coming
week Minster of Diaspora Affairs Hranush Hakobyan will arrive in Los Angeles
on an official visit to become familiarized with our community and
establishments.
On Thursday, November 20th, the Prelate, councils, and community
members will welcome Ms. Hakobyan to the Prelacy. A reception has been
organized in her honor.

CONCLUSION OF THE "YEAR OF CHRISTIAN EDUCATION" LECTURE SERIES

Throughout the year, a number of lectures have taken place in our
parishes in celebration of "The Year of Christian Education".
The last lecture in this series will take place on Tuesday, November
25th, at 7:30 p.m., at St. Mary’s Church in Glendale.
The topic, "St. Nerses the Graceful’s Literary Bequest to Spiritual
Awakening and Christian Education" will be presented by Rev. Fr. Ardak
Demirjian.
The lecture will be followed by Bible study led by Very Rev. Fr.
Barthev Gulumian.
PRELATE CONGRATULATES
PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA

Following the presidential elections of November 4th, H.E.
Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian, Prelate, sent a congratulatory letter to
President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden on behalf of
the Prelacy Councils and the Armenian community of the Western United
States. The Prelate also sent congratulatory letters to re-elected Congress
members representing the state of California.
In his letter the Prelate referenced the long history of
collaboration between the Armenian community and elected officials, and
expressed confidence that the cooperative relationship will continue for
years to come. The Prelate in specific commended President-elect Obama’s
and Vice President-elect Biden’s principled stand on the Armenian Genocide
and expressed hope that with their continued support and efforts we will see
progress in our cause.

PRELATE AND EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WELCOME NEW BOARD OF DAVIDIAN & MARIAMIAN
EDUCATIONAL FOUNDATION

On the evening of Tuesday, November 11th, H.E. Archbishop Moushegh
Mardirossian, Prelate, and the Executive Council welcomed to the Prelacy the
newly elected board members of Davidian & Mariamian Educational Foundation.
The delegation was led by Chairman Mr. Vahik Satoorian.
During the meeting of the Executive Council, the new board members
presented the efforts of the foundation to provide Armenian language,
culture, and history instruction to the large number of Armenian students
attending public schools. They stated that the work they began more than
twenty years ago continues and has grown to encompass twenty schools and
fifty teachers and staff members. The board members concluded their report
by thanking the Prelate and council members for their constant support and
encouragement.
The Prelate and Executive Council highly commended their devoted
efforts and reaffirmed their continued support and collaboration.

THIRD ANNIVERSARY OF THE CRESCENTA VALLEY PARISH CELEBRATED

On Sunday, November 9th, the Crescenta Valley parish celebrated its
third anniversary. In honor of this occasion the Prelate celebrated Divine
Liturgy and delivered the sermon at the parish. He was assisted at the
altar by parish pastor Rev. Fr. Ardak Demirjian.
In his sermon the Prelate commended the Pastor, Delegates, Board of
Trustees, Ladies Auxiliary, altar servers, choir members, and all the
volunteers for their hard work and efforts over the past three years and the
progress they have achieved thus far, expressing hope for the parish to have
its own church in the near future.
Following the service, the Prelate and congregation headed to the
adjacent hall for a reception that had been organized by the Ladies
Auxiliary.
The third anniversary banquet will take place on the evening of
Friday, November 14th, at Brandview Collection in Glendale, under the
auspices of and with the participation of the Prelate.

6 HURT BY BOMB AT STUDENT PARTY

Gulf Times
Nov 13 2008
Qatar

MONTPELLIER: At least six students from Eastern Europe were injured
yesterday in southern France when they set off a homemade bomb at a
drunken party in a campus accommodation block, officials said.

Two of the party-goers were seriously injured in the blast, which
appears to have resulted from an experiment during a 20th birthday
party rather than from any terrorist intent, according to the
Montpellier prosecutor’s office.

Police said five young men – two Russians, a Moldovan, a Ukrainian
and an Armenian – and a Ukrainian woman were in the flat when the
device exploded at 4.20am. Another 100 people were evacuated from
the building.

"From the first results of the enquiry it doesn’t seem that we’re
dealing with terrorists but perhaps with some young people with
some background in chemistry, who wanted to test a homemade bomb,"
prosecutor Brice Robin said.

Nevertheless, he added, if clues ended up pointing to criminal intent,
his office would hand over the case to the anti-terrorist squad. One
of the Russians was from Chechnya, a republic with a history of
guerrilla violence.

According to emergency personnel, alcohol had been consumed at
the party.

The student who was renting the flat suffered third degree burns on
50% of his body and is in intensive care. A second student suffered
a perforated lung. Four more guests received treatment.

It is thought that a seventh witness was present and lightly hurt,
but fled the scene, police said.

Police found potassium nitrate, aluminium powder, caustic soda,
nitric acid and sulphuric acid in the flat, all of which are legally
on sale in France but which when mixed correctly can form an explosive.

The tenant of the third-storey flat was a Montpellier University
electrical engineering student who had previously followed a chemistry
course and is thought to have been the one who triggered the device,
Robin said.

The blast enveloped two rooms in flames and blew out all the windows
of the flat and those on the floors above and below.

A LETTER TO A FRIEND – WHY THE SILENCE AND INACTIVITY?
By Dikran Abrahamian

10 November 2008

>From the moment that the present rulers came to power in Armenia,
there were reservations and critical appraisals. Initially that
involved the fraudulent presidential election, then the brutal way of
silencing the opposition. The most serious matter was yet to come –
a course of diplomacy that is at high gears to implement what some
call a sell out, including but not limited to lethally compromising
decades’ long struggle of the Diaspora for recognition of the Genocide
of the Armenians and the security of Artsakh.

Recently, during a private visit to California, the above topics were
the subject of discussions with many that I met, including editors,
writers, activists, party officials and ordinary folks of various
affiliations and persuasions. Some had praiseworthy remarks about
our community. Indeed a very well respected individual made the
following observation, "we have seen the Canadian Armenian community
being more active in the past couple of years." On the other hand,
I heard some veiled critical remarks too, primarily related to the
apparent silence of the community about the usurped power, ongoing
violations of human and civil rights, the predicament of the political
prisoners, and inactivity of the community regarding recent diplomatic
initiatives of Armenia.

While thanking for the positive remarks, I’ll try to address the issues
of silence and inactivity pointed out by many. To avoid hurting the
sensitivities of people involved in the affairs of our community in
Canada, I’ll describe the situation in as mundane and neutral terms
as possible.

That may not be always possible; for the sake of keeping good
relations, covering realities is not an option – particularly at this
juncture when so much is at stake.

I’ll start with AWA, The Armenian World Alliance in Toronto, comprising
Henchag, Ramgavar and ideologically opinionated but non-party member
individuals. Up to recently ADL, the Armenian Democratic Liberal
Party was a constituent of the formation. It’s no longer the case,
because the ADL leadership in Toronto opted out. Subsequently, to the
chagrin of several sympathizers of AWA, it joined CCA – the Congress
of Armenian Canadians based in Montreal.

CCA, despite being cognizant of the fact that the presidential
election was anything but fair, did not hesitate to congratulate
the new president, and simply made lukewarm remarks about the March
First tragedy. ADL did the same along with AGBU and others, such as
the Armenian Assembly in USA. It’s worth noting that the Armenian
Diocese of Canada is part of CCA, and the Primate ex-officio has
to follow instructions from the Catholicosate in Etchmiadzin. It’s
common knowledge that the Catholicos of All Armenians himself blessed
the new president and urged people to co-operate with the "elected"
authorities.

Of late some members of CCA privately were questioned why the silence
about what has happened and what is evolving. The answers have been
less than satisfactory. It seems that CCA concerns itself only with
matters of the Genocide of the Armenians and recognition of the
Genocide – a very convenient non-answer. Others have just shaken
their heads without providing a straight-forward reply.

With respect to ANCC, the Armenian National Committee of Canada,
to their credit they deplored and condemned the use of Violence
in Tibet. However, it seems that their binoculars were set to see
the higher elevations of the Roof of the World bypassing regions
around Ararat. Flip-flopping between opposition and coalition, the
ARF in Armenia set the tone for the rest of the chapters scattered
all over the world including Canada. Of course, once the agenda of
his Excellency the President of Armenia became more obvious, it felt
uneasy to say the least. How to handle the inconsistencies between
goals that are held dear and reality? There have been news items
circulating in the ARF or affiliated media elsewhere, but nothing
substantial in Canada.

As in other Armenian communities, independent individuals,
intellectuals who for one reason or another have apathy towards
recognized organizations, tried to break the silence. They wrote
open letters, participated in various petitions, initiated public
and on-line discussions, and posted articles in websites. The number
of people involved in such activities is impressive; but due to the
lack of coordination between individuals it did not materialize into
a unified voice asserting itself in Canada, let alone be adequately
heard in the motherland.

Is it time for action? Probably yes; but given the realities that
a primate effectively sets the trend of what’s to be done in one of
the organizations and dichotomy characterizing a coalition partner in
Armenia, it’s hard to expect anything substantive yet. Independents
are silenced, and sometimes – deliberately or inadvertently – their
initiatives are undermined.

Will the Canadian Armenian community be more active and be heard? It’s
argued that such an action is tantamount to interference in the
affairs of Armenia. Nevertheless, equally valid is the argument that
highest officials of Armenia have already hampered the efforts of the
Diaspora. For starters, they have made it all the more difficult to
expand the circle of jurisdictions that have recognized the Genocide –
that horrible traumatic communal experience that kept and keeps the
Diaspora together – a pathological phenomenon, yet very real.

Expecting the organizations to take the lead is to witness more of the
same, for as long as individuals and coalitions in the organizations
are worried about their own interests – personal or otherwise. The
moment that their prerogatives get seriously curtailed they’ll
raise their voice – an event that was observed during the first
administration in Armenia.

Meanwhile it’s up to the people who profess to be independents,
up to the intellectuals and professionals who are concerned about
the hazardous course that Armenia has taken, to coalesce and get the
Canadian Armenian community into the national discourse that began
with a rough ride.

SERBIA WILLING TO IMPROVE ITS RELATIONS WITH TURKEY

Hurriyet
Nov 10 2008
Turkey

ANKARA – Turkey is a very important country in the region and now a
member of the U.N. Security Council. It is very active in all regional
initiatives, we want to have good relations with Turkey. I came to
build our relations in all areas,’ says Ambassador Curgus

The ambassador of Serbia said his return after almost eight months
did not mean his country had withdrawn its objection to Ankara’s
recognition of an independent Kosovo.

Serbia recalled its ambassador to Ankara, Vladimir Curgus, in a show
of protest shortly after Turkey became one of the first countries to
recognize the breakaway region’s independence in February.

"I must say it is an illegal decision by Kosovo to declare
independence. But Turkey is responsible for its own decisions,"
Curgus told the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review in his first
interview with the media after returning in late October.

He said he came back, "not because we accept the recognition, but
because Serbia wants to make relations with Ankara better than they
are at the moment."

The ambassador said, "Turkey is a very important country in the region
and a member of the United Nations Security Council. It is very
active in all regional initiatives. We want to have good relations
with Turkey. I came to build our relationship in all areas."

But he said their difference with the Turkish government on the Kosovo
issue remained unresolved.

"No, we have not closed the (Kosovo) file," he said. "We do not agree
that Kosovo is a separate territory from Serbia. Serbia does not accept
the political decision of Turkey (to recognise its independence)."

Turkey multinational country

The process in the run-up to the recognition of Kosovo’s independence
gained momentum early this year with the United States and leading
members of the European Union pledging support. The critical decision
as to recognition sparked fears that Kosovo, populated by 2 million
Albanians, could set a precedent for other states, including Turkey,
who are concerned about separatism.

"Every nationality in every part of the world has its own rights. But
if they all declare independence, every multi-ethnic country including
Turkey would have big problems. Turkey is not a one-nation country,"
said Curgus.

His remarks were in response to questions about Kurdish claims for
broader autonomy inside Turkish territory.

"Did Turkey accept claims for territory? No, and it is right of
Turkey to do so as is the (denial of the independence of Kosovo)
a sovereign right of Serbia," he said.

Kosovo plans to open an embassy in Ankara soon. Diplomatic sources
told the Daily News that suitable sites were being sought.

"They can open whatever they want to open. It is not a question
that I want to comment on. It is a decision of the (Turkish)
government. Tomorrow they must explain their decision to the Tukish
people," said Curgus.

The ambassador said Serbia believed the dispute over Kosovo could be
settled by negotiation.

"The Balkan territory has had a very difficult history, involving many
battles. Because of past experience, we want to solve this (Kosovo)
problem not with guns but with law. We want to believe international
law still exists," noted Curgus.

The president of Serbia, Boris Tadic, asked the U.N. Security Council
to annul the declaration of independence by Kosovo. Belgrade currently
awaits the United Nations decision on Kosovo.

"We strongly believe that the U.N. system cannot approve of this. We
are sure the United Nations will consider the declaration of
independence illegal," said the ambassador.

He also expressed optimism about a real compromise with Albanians
in Kosovo.

"We insist on making a real deal with Albanians. You can never work
when there is a frozen conflict," said Curgus.

He cited another "frozen conflict," Nagorno-Karabakh, between regional
rivals in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan and Armenia. "You see that it is
very important to have a solution concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and
Turkey is involved as frozen conflicts are of no use to neighboring
countries," he said.

AMERIABANK OPENS ITS FIRST BRANCH IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH

ARKA
Nov 10, 2008

STEPANAKERT, November 10. /ARKA/. Ameriabank of Armenia has opened
its first branch on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Along with traditional banking services, the branch will also be
developing new investment banking services that have not been utilized
in the banking systems of Armenia and Karabakh yet, General Director
of Ameriabank Artak Anesyan said.

Support is to be provided to small, medium and major businesses,
Anesyan said adding that the bank will be extending mortgage and
consumer credits and will be financing leasing and factoring projects.

The Stepanakert branch has about 1,000 clients today and the number of
clients is expected to grow by seven times up to 7,000 in yearly terms.

The banking services, technical equipment and the service level in
the new branch will be in line with highest international standards
and will not yield to the Yerevan Central Office, says the banks’
press release. An online system is to link the Stepanakert Office
with that in Yerevan.

The branch opening ceremony was attended by the Premier of
Nagorno-Karabakh republic (NKR) Ara Hatutiunyan, Chairman of the
Central Bank of Armenia Artur Javadyan and the Head of Artsakh diocese
of Armenian Apostolic Church Parkev Martirosyan.

Ameriabank (formerly Armimpexbank) was established in July 1992 as
the Armenian branch of the USSR Vnesheconombank. On September 8,
1992, the Central Bank of Armenia issued a license to the bank.

TDA Holdings Limited, affiliate of the Russian Troika Dialog Investment
Company, became the bank’s principal shareholder (96.15%). In May
2008 the bank was renamed Ameriabank.

ARMENIA, KYRGYZSTAN INTERESTED IN THE DEEPENING OF ECONOMIC TIES

armradio.am
10.11.2008 18:02

The newly appointed Ambassador of Kyrgyzstan to Armenia Raimkul
Atakurov (seat in Moscow) handed his credentials to President of
Armenia Serzh Sargsyan, President’s Press Office reported.

The President of the republic appreciated the active cooperation
established between the two countries over the past two years.

According to Serzh Sargsyan, when building their relations, Armenia and
Kyrgyzstan take into consideration the fact that the two countries are
parts of the same security system, both are members of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization, which attaches a special importance to
their relations.

The President noted that the activity of the Intergovernmental
Commission is important for the deepening of bilateral economic ties.

Ambassador Atakurov said he would do his utmost to facilitate the
deepening of relations between the two countries.

ARMENIE VISITE DU PRESIDENT SERGE SARKISSIAN A PARIS
par Piotr Smolar

Le Monde
6 novembre 2008 jeudi
France

La diplomatie se remobilise pour eviter une reprise du conflit
armeno-azerbaïdjanais sur la question du Haut-Karabakh

LE HAUT-KARABAKH fait l’objet d’un regain d’activite diplomatique. Il
a ete au coeur de l’entretien, mardi 4 novembre a Paris, entre Nicolas
Sarkozy et le president armenien, Serge Sarkissian. Deux jours plus
tôt, ce dernier a rencontre a Moscou son homologue Ilham Aliev, pour
l’Azerbaïdjan. Les deux dirigeants ont signe une declaration commune
au sujet du Haut-Karabakh, sous la supervision du chef de l’Etat russe,
Dmitri Medvedev.

Ce document ne constitue pas une feuille de route precise pour
un règlement pacifique du conflit qui oppose les deux pays sur ce
territoire, situe en Azerbaïdjan mais peuple d’Armeniens. Toutefois,
il confirme la necessite d’une " solution politique " assortie de "
garanties internationales ", qui devrait etre negociee dans le cadre
du Groupe de Minsk, cree par l’Organisation pour la securite et la
cooperation en Europe (OSCE), copreside par la Russie, les Etats-Unis
et la France.

Lors d’un entretien accorde au Monde, lundi 3 novembre, le president
armenien, Serge Sarkissian, s’est felicite de la signature du document,
" le premier depuis quatorze ans ", date de la fin du conflit arme qui
a dure six ans et fait près de 25 000 morts. " C’est aussi important
car les negociations avaient ralenti. Il n’y avait plus d’avancees
en raison des elections en Armenie et en Azerbaïdjan ", dit-il.

Ancien premier ministre, Serge Sarkissian a ete elu en fevrier. De
son côte, Ilham Aliev a ete reelu president le 15 octobre. En mars,
alors que l’Armenie traversait une grave crise post-electorale, marquee
par la mort de dix personnes et l’instauration de l’etat d’urgence,
le president azeri avait menace de reconquerir " les territoires
occupes " par les armes.

L’Armenie, par la voix de son president, se dit prete aujourd’hui
a avancer sans delai dans les negociations. Mais elle n’est guère
disposee a faire de concessions majeures. " Nous disons depuis
longtemps qu’une solution dans le Haut-Karabakh est possible
si l’Azerbaïdjan reconnaît le droit a l’autodetermination ; s’il
existe un lien terrestre entre l’Armenie et le Haut-Karabakh ; si des
garanties sont assurees pour la securite du Haut-Karabakh ", enumère
Serge Sarkissian. Interroge sur la zone terrestre qui existe de facto
entre l’Armenie et le Haut-Karabakh, le chef de l’Etat armenien a
estime qu’elle devait " avoir le meme statut " que le Haut-Karabakh.

LIENS AVEC LA TURQUIE

La guerre eclair entre la Russie et la Georgie, au mois d’août,
a contribue a accelerer les echanges diplomatiques au sujet de ce
conflit gele. Selon de nombreux observateurs, la Russie s’efforcerait
de reparer son image a l’etranger en apparaissant comme un mediateur de
paix. Elle chercherait aussi a accentuer sa domination politique dans
le Caucase. Selon Serge Sarkissian, le conflit georgien a demontre
qu’" il ne fallait pas ecraser militairement le droit des peuples a
l’autodetermination, sous peine de consequences graves ".

Le president armenien souligne egalement, en reference a la Russie,
que " les positions de tel ou tel pays sur le droit international ne
sont pas eternelles ". Il suffit selon lui de " reculer de quelques
annees et de comparer les declarations de la Russie sur le Kosovo
avec celles qu’elle tient sur l’Ossetie du Sud pour constater de
grandes differences ". Serge Sarkissian refute toute pression accrue
de Moscou sur la politique etrangère de l’Armenie. " Pourquoi les
Russes feraient-ils pression ? En tant que partenaire strategique,
nous assumons nos engagements, dit-il. Et par ailleurs, ils savent
bien que nous ne reconnaîtrons pas l’independance de l’Ossetie du Sud
et de l’Abkhazie, pour la bonne raison qu’on n’a pas reconnu celle
du Haut-Karabakh. "

M. Sarkissian a egalement evoque un autre chantier majeur, la
normalisation des liens avec la Turquie. Les relations diplomatiques
sont inexistantes en raison de la querelle acharnee sur le genocide
armenien, commis pendant la première guerre mondiale.

Debut septembre, le president turc, Abdullah Gul, a effectue une visite
historique a Erevan, a l’occasion d’un match de football opposant les
deux equipes nationales. " Une conversation efficace " est engagee,
dit M. Sarkissian. " Notre approche est la suivante : il faut etablir
des relations diplomatiques, ouvrir les frontières et ensuite seulement
traiter les questions qui nous preoccupent ", souligne-t-il.

–Boundary_(ID_+cD/Yta0PVwcDPS6A1G /dQ)–

TURKEY IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL
Gallia Lindenstrauss

Right Side News
torial/turkey-in-the-security-council.html
Nov 7 2008
GA

Turkey’s election as a non-permanent member of the United Nations
Security Council by a considerable majority (151 out the 192 member
states) reflects Turkey’s importance in the current international
system. Among the members of the European group, Turkey was chosen
alongside Austria after both overtook Iceland. The last time Turkey
was elected to the Security Council was over 40 years ago, and it
appears that the current choice also indicates international support
for some of the diplomatic bridging activity that Turkey has been
involved in recently.

This diplomatic bridging suggests a unique mediating role for
Turkey in conflicts in the three regions it borders: the Middle
East, the Caucasus, and the Balkans. Through this role as mediator,
Turkey attempts to prove that it need not identify with any given
international party and can maintain its good relations with the
West while it increases its involvement in the Middle East and the
Caucasus. Nevertheless, in view of Turkey’s domestic problems and
the instability of certain neighboring countries, some of the issues
that are expected to appear soon on the Security Council’s agenda
are liable to create some tough dilemmas for Turkish decision makers.

Of the diplomatic initiatives recently taken by Turkey, the most
prominent is the "football diplomacy" with Armenia, which peaked with
the first visit ever by a Turkish president to Armenia, to watch the
World Cup qualifying game between Armenia and Turkey. Armenia’s demand
that Turkey recognize the genocide committed against the Armenians
in 1915, and the conflict over the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, with
Armenia controlling around 15 percent of the territory of Azerbaijan,
Turkey’s ally, have strained relations between them.

Moreover, the absence of diplomatic ties between Turkey and Armenia
and concern over another round of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh between
Armenia and Azerbaijan impact on the stability of the entire Caucasus
region. For example, Armenia -Russia’s ally – is wary of Turkey and of
Azerbaijan yet the oil pipeline between Azerbaijan and Turkey traverses
Georgia in order to bypass Armenia. Recent developments in Georgia
underscore that players looking to block Russia’s over-dominance in
the Caucasus should also take Armenia into consideration. Thus Turkey
recently launched a plan for advancing cooperation and stability in
the Caucasus region among Russia, Turkey, and the southern Caucasus
states, including Armenia.

Another diplomatic initiative by Turkey, mediation in the Israel-Syria
conflict, is of particular interest since one of the elements in the
strategic partnership between Israel and Turkey that evolved in the
90s was these countries’ confrontation with Syria. Israeli control of
the Golan and the Lebanon question divide Israel and Syria. Between
Turkey and Syria there were a number of disputes based on territory and
conflicts over the division of water resources. Moreover, at the end of
the nineties relations between Turkey and Syria reached a crisis point
following Syria’s patronage of elements from the PKK (the Kurdistan
Workers’ Party) who carried out terror attacks on Turkish soil.

Resolution of the issue of PKK presence in Syria and the events in
Iraq have helped relations between Syria and Turkey thaw in recent
years. Some claim that a new axis is currently evolving between
Turkey, Syria, and Iran based on a shared interest in the future
of Iraq. As part of Turkey’s focus on bridging, it takes pains not
to present these developments as a threat to its good relations with
the United States and Israel, although the question remains as to how
much it will maintain this policy. A related factor is Turkey’s favor
of the Palestinians in its mediating initiatives between Israel and
the Palestinians; this support that has even increased in recent years.

Despite these and other bridging initiatives, Turkey is hard-pressed
to deal with the Kurdish problem on its own territory. Since 2007,
when the Justice and Development party was reelected with a large
majority, reforms towards the Kurds were not extended, reforms that
were spearheaded by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an in his first
term of office as part of Turkey’s efforts to be accepted into the
European Union (EU).

Furthermore, frequent incursions by Turkish forces into Iraq in order
to chase PKK activists taking cover in northern Iraq, and Turkey’s
fierce opposition to the establishment of an independent Kurdish state
damage Turkey’s attempts to present itself as a stabilizing influence
in the international arena. Although it may be assumed that the United
States will labor to prevent Security Council discussion of issues
connected to Iraq, Turkey’s heavy involvement in Iraq will undoubtedly
cause it problems, at least vis-a-vis its dealings with the US in
the Security Council, and will challenge its potential for cooperation.

One of the issues expected to continue on the Security Council’s agenda
is the Iranian nuclear program. Turkey objected to the imposition of
sanctions on Iran and tried to mediate between Iran and the United
States. Iranian cooperation in Turkey’s fight against the PKK and
reciprocal high level visits even suggest a strengthening of ties
between Turkey and Iran. On the other hand, the United States will
look to Turkish cooperation in decisions over international sanctions
on Iran. The United States may link this issue with Turkey’s requests
regarding the Kurdish areas in Iraq, and possibly even subsequent
American non-recognition of the genocide committed against the
Armenian people.

With regard to the Israeli-Arab conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, Turkey will almost certainly adopt a position favorable
to the Arab and Palestinian sides in the Security Council. While
relations with Israel are still considered important, partly due the
support of military leaders for these ties, a number of parties will
probably encourage Turkey to adopt positions less comfortable for
Israel. Furthermore, support by the Justice and Development party
for Islamic principles joins Turkey’s traditional pro-Palestinian
stance. In the past, Israel accepted Turkey’s difficulties with
supporting it on issues that contradicted the Palestinian position,
and one may expect Israel to maintain this policy.

While the division into groups in the UN is not based solely on
geography, there were those who pointed out the irony of Turkey being
accepted as a non-permanent member of the Security Council as part of
a European group, even though full membership in the European Union
is not guaranteed. If Turkey manages to fulfill a constructive role
in the Security Council in the next two years this may help to soften
some of the resistance to its acceptance to the EU, for example from
leaders such as French president Nicolas Sarkozy.

It seems that Turkey’s current situation and recent bridging
initiatives may help it to contribute to stability in the regions
around it. Nevertheless, one can imagine scenarios in which Turkey is
faced with considerable dilemmas regarding the way it votes in the
Security Council, principally with regard to its desire to be seen
as part of Europe and the democratic Western world even though it is
an Islamic state with extensive ties to the Islamic world and key
countries such as Iran and Syria. The question is will its conduct
as a non-permanent member of the Security Council be similar to that
of Austria (or Belgium and Italy, which were replaced by Turkey and
Austria) or that of Indonesia. Turkey, however, will likely do its
utmost to mediate and thereby avoid having to take sides.

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) is an independent
academic institute that studies key issues relating to Israel’s
national security and Middle East affairs.