March: 25, 2026
While the ruling elite is having carefree fun in the “happy buses” and is in the midst of celebrations, the risks and effects arising from the regional geopolitical situation on Armenia are becoming more and more important.
They are gradually expressed both in the economy and in the consumer markets. Inflationary pressures have intensified, although the Central Bank is not in a hurry to revise the refinancing rate. Not because there is no need for revision at this moment, but because there are so many uncertainties that they prefer to remain neutral for now.
In the last session of the Council, the Central Bank again left the main interest rate unchanged.
The last time it was revised and slightly reduced in December last year. However, after that, phenomena took place in the consumer market, which activated inflation. Inflation risks have worsened especially as a result of the escalation of the conflict in the region, which has created serious threats for Armenia.
According to the estimates of the Central Bank, if these risks are taken into account, the additional impact on inflation may be 1.2-1.7 percentage points. It will be transferred through the increase in prices of energy carriers, logistics problems and the increase in prices resulting from the use of alternative roads, as well as through the substitution of food products imported from Iran.
In the case of implementation, which is already being observed, all this will significantly boost inflation in the domestic market, especially if we take into account that already at the beginning of the year, Armenia entered an environment of inflation activation.
In February, the 12-month inflation was 4.3 percent. 2 months ago it was 3.3 percent.
Inflation intensified especially in food markets, reaching 6.5 percent in February. And this in the event that the processes taking place in the region had not yet started.
It is not difficult to imagine what will happen when all the influences dictated by the processes taking place in the region are added to the existing situation.
In some cases, these effects are already observed, both in the case of food and non-food products, but it will be possible to talk about them in detail later, when the results of the statistical committee’s observations on the developments in consumer markets in March will be published.
Until then, inflation is moving in the direction of activation. It is not difficult to understand what this means for hundreds of thousands of citizens of Armenia, whose incomes are lower than the value of even the minimum food basket. The fact that pensions will increase by 10,000 drams from April 1 will not change anything or almost nothing in the lives of pensioners.
But the problem is not only inflation. The entire economy of Armenia is facing risks.
According to the estimates of the Central Bank, on the one hand, the conflict taking place in the region has the potential to increase inflation, on the other hand, it increases the risks of slowing down the economy, which can be quite an undesirable phenomenon for Armenia.
“If there is a decline in economic activity in the world economy, it will irreversibly affect the economic growth and developments in Armenia,” this is the assessment of the Central Bank president.
The decrease in external demand will undoubtedly weaken the export potential of the economy, which is known to be in the same state as it is. This will be expressed especially by limiting the opportunities to export some Armenian products to a number of countries in the region, due to logistical problems. But it will not happen only in the case of exports of Armenian products. Re-exports will be limited, which have become a lifeline for Armenia’s economic and export growth in recent years under the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
In particular, we are talking about re-exports to the UAE. In the last few years, a large batch of goods was brought to Armenia and exported to that country through Armenia, leaving the impression that our economy is in the midst of rapid development and growth. One of those products is Russian gold, which is known for its significant role in the growth of Armenia’s economy and exports. Only the restriction of re-exports of Russian gold is enough to make the “impressive” growth of the economy and especially the industry disappear.
The risks from the tourism sector have increased. It is difficult to expect active tourist flows when the region is burning in flames.
It should not be forgotten that one of the main tourist destinations of Armenia is Iran. Before the recent events, almost 10 percent of the streams came from that country. This period was especially active.
If forced migration does not take place, it can hardly be expected that there will be tourist visits from Iran to Armenia in the near future. Even after the end of the conflict, it is difficult to cherish serious hopes in this direction.
Very soon we will see the direct consequences of the conflict on tourist flows. Although even before that a certain passivation of interests was observed. In February, although a certain increase was recorded after the fall of the previous year, the “historical record” stopped. Tourist flows were significantly, almost 6 thousand less than in 2024.
The potential risks of reduced flows are now much greater.
Armenia’s economy will also be affected by the price increases of energy carriers, if they are not already there. After a short price reduction, in recent days the prices of energy carriers have increased again, and quite sharply.
In addition to all this, the problem of ensuring the income of the state budget is more than worrying. The deterioration of the economic situation will directly affect the budget revenues. And this is in the event that today’s rulers of Armenia, based on their own political expediency, have made a number of adventurous decisions, endangering the fiscal stability of the country.
HAKOB KOCHARYAN
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168: The pre-election “restart” of those closing the Artsakh page. To “home” the people of Artsakh and
March: 25, 2026
Nikol Pashinyan, who is demonized by the word “Artsakh”, deprived the people of Artsakh of their own land and water, home and place, and closed the page of the Karabakh movement, decided to remember the problems of the “brothers and sisters” of Artsakh on the eve of the elections. He gathered a group of people and tried to hang noodles from their ears before the elections.
He convinced them to forget Artsakh, the graves of their parents and children and relatives left in Atsakh, what they had done over the years and urged them to settle in Armenia without unnecessary emotions.
Before the elections, for obvious reasons, he tried to woo the people of Artsakh.
If they already feel the need for the votes of the people of Artsakh, it means that the situation is really difficult. The citizens of Artsakh who have the right to participate in the elections are the last group of voters who can even think of voting for these authorities after all this time. Today’s rulers of Armenia also understand this, but due to their incompetence, they threw their hands into the foam. Once they targeted and insulted, they did not listen to the raised social issues, now they remembered the people of Artsakh.
Read also
- For the carte blanche given to Pashinyan, a price will be set for Armenia after the elections. Hakob Badalyan
- PASHINIAN, YOU ARE A LONG TIME AGO. OLIGARCHS ARE IN YOUR GOVERNMENT. GOHAR MELOYAN
- As Pashinyan handed over Artsakh to the enemy, he will do the same with Armenia. Vazgen Hovhannisyan
For two years, people have been continuously complaining that it is not possible to buy an apartment both in Yerevan and outside of Yerevan with the money allocated by the housing security program approved by the government, the apartments are much more expensive than the allocated money, but who was listening? At that time, the elections were still behind the mountains, there is no problem of wooing the people of Artsakh. The elections are approaching, they remembered that the 3 million drams given are not enough to buy an apartment in the settlements bordering Yerevan. Therefore, they promise to increase the 3 million to 4 million in a short time, within 1-2 months, before the elections.
They are so worried about their own future that they are ready to give retroactive effect to this change, to extend it to the certificates that have been issued so far.
It is clear that it is not out of love for the “brothers and sisters” of Artsakh that they intend to take such steps. If it were up to them, they wouldn’t have given what they had, let alone increase the amount. But they have to do it because they need the votes of the citizens of Artsakh who have received Armenian citizenship.
Although, it is not the case that the people of Artsakh have received the citizenship of Armenia and now they can satisfy the appetite of the authorities with their votes. Two and a half years after their forced displacement, most of them prefer to keep Artsakh citizenship, which means that unlike Nikol Pashinyan and his exhortations to settle in Armenia, people do not lose hope of returning. Even the dire need for an apartment is not a reason for many to obtain Armenian citizenship, which is a mandatory requirement to use the housing assistance program. There is no secret in the fact that they did this specifically in order to deprive the people of Artsakh of the last hope of returning.
Of the 120,000 forcibly displaced people, only 34,000 have received Armenian citizenship. The rest continue to wait and hope that one day they will return to their homes.
Out of those 34,000 Artsakh citizens who received Armenian citizenship, only 1,700 families were able to get an apartment with the residence certificate provided by the government in almost 2 years. Hardly 7-8 percent of displaced Artsakh families.
At this rate, it will take years, perhaps decades, for our forcibly displaced compatriots to fully benefit from the housing program. The reasons are different, but one of the main ones has always been the discrepancy between the offered amount and the prices of the apartments. Apartments, even in marzes, are much more expensive than the amount that the government is willing to give. That is why many people could not and still cannot use the program.
But until recently, it did not bother the government and the political authorities at all, no one even thought why people do not use the program that is so glorified by them, although the need for housing is suffocating many. After that, they suddenly remembered the problems of the people of Artsakh, they are ready to provide solutions to them. Although what they are proposing will not be a solution, because it is not the money with which they can buy apartments in the neighboring marzes and settlements of Yerevan.
They will be just as unattainable for many even after the 3 million each become 4 million each. Until they do that, housing prices will rise again. Moreover, in the case of such initiatives, the market reacts much faster, people rush to raise prices through artificial price increases.
Therefore, it is still too early to say how much the situation will change after this hasty decision of the government. But in this case, that is not the problem at all. It is obvious that the purpose of all this is to convince and woo the people of Artsakh and get their votes in the elections. That is why they make such “sacrifices”, they are ready to increase the amount by 1 million per person.
Of course, it’s good, but why now? After all, all those problems are not new and it is not new that they knew about them.
On the eve of the elections, when other political forces have been deprived of the opportunity to do something, sometimes even to speak, to communicate with the citizens, they can freely interfere in the electoral processes, using the state levers, to show a special attitude towards the voters. And this does not apply only to the people of Artsakh.
Recently, the “selfless” care and assistance of the authorities to the voters at the expense of state funds is noticeable everywhere. But, no matter how strange it is, it is not customary to call it election bribery, although it is obviously done to bribe the voters.
HAKOB KOCHARYAN
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Verelq: The new manipulation of “war” and “peace”.
“Fact” daily writes:
Yesterday, we can say, once again, Nikol Pashinyan terrorized the Armenian people with war. Moreover, Pashinyan mentioned a specific date: September. It is clear why September, because when Pashinyan is rejected after the June 7 elections, the formation of a new government will take place at that time.
In practice, Pashinyan constantly threatens war if he is rejected. Yesterday, the Foreign Minister of Pashinyan’s cabinet repeated the same threats in the National Assembly. But what does this mean?
Many questions are being asked about this these days. For example, does this mean an open hint to Azerbaijan to attack Armenia so that Nikol Pashinyan does not lose power? Or does this mean that Pashinyan has some deeper and more terrible concession agreements with Aliyev, after which Azerbaijan will “come” if Pashinyan is no longer in power? In the case of these authorities, nothing can be ruled out. However, whatever happens, it is actually understandable that Pashinyan is just terrorizing the people of Armenia, presenting himself as a “force of peace” and others as a “force of war”. At one time, in 1998, they said: “to war party” defeated the “peace party”, after that there was 20 years of peace. And when, so to speak, the “light” version “bringing peace” came to power, a war broke out shortly after. Wars. It turns out that “peace parties” bring war, “war parties” bring peace?
Pashinyan uses the topic of war to get votes before the elections, to play on the public’s emotions, to terrorize the public and to exploit those emotions.
Yes, by the way, in terms of knowing the date of the start of the war, Pashinyan says: I’ve been prime minister for so many years, I don’t know that either? What does this mean? In other words, did he learn about the start of the war in 2020 (was he warned)? Maybe he knows the day of the attack on Jermuk? It’s an interesting situation, isn’t it?
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Iranian drones disrupted Amazon data centers in Bahrain
An Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud data center cluster in Bahrain has been disrupted due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This was announced by the representative of the American company.
As reported by the Reuters agency, the disruption of the work of AWS in Bahrain is related to the “activity of unmanned aerial vehicles” in the given area. The company also noted that they are temporarily moving customers to branches in other regions. Amazon did not provide information on the extent of the damage or an estimated time frame for restoration.
On March 2, two clusters of AWS cloud data centers in the UAE were left without power after the strikes by Iranian UAVs. AWS informed about limited power supply problems in one of the clusters in Bahrain.
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Film Review | Thus Spoke the Wind — an Armenian drama that favours art over s
★★☆☆☆
Russian director Maria Rigel’s latest film is a disappointingly slow-moving look at Armenian society that is more incomprehensible than enlightening.
Moscow-native Maria Rigel (who has previously been known as Mariya Batova) arrived in Armenia in 2022, following her country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Having first landed in a rural village outside Yerevan, she was inspired ‘by the local culture, people, and nature’ to create a feature film, noting in a 2025 interview with Klassiki that ‘from my first days in Armenia, I had the strange feeling that I had known this place for a long time. The psychology of local people also feels familiar since it’s part of the post-Soviet space’.
Ostensibly inspired by the legendary Caucasian filmmaker Sergei Parajanov, as well as similarly famed Russian filmmaker Aleksandr Sokurov, Rigel attempts to create a distinguished drama examining gender roles and familial ties. Unfortunately, the film falls short of these aims, instead acting as an inscrutable example of art over substance.
Thus Spoke the Wind is segmented into three sections, each opening with a scene shot through the night-vision lens of a hunting rifle.
The first of these shots introduces Hayk (Albert Babajanyan), a quiet young boy who is bullied by his peers in an attempt to toughen him up into a real Armenian man. While perhaps not the happiest life, it seems he and his aunt Narine (Lusine Avanesyan), the manager of a local lavash factory, have carved out a space for themselves. Any sense of equilibrium is shaken, however, when Narine’s sister and Hayk’s real mother Anahit (Annika Abrahamyan) returns to the village
Arriving in the middle of the night with vibrant red hair, and having left her son years before, it is clear Anahit does not fit the stereotype of a traditional, good Armenian woman. Soon enough, the village begins to turn on her — the local boys, with Hayk in the backseat, chase Anahit down a country road; workers at the lavash factory, where Anahit now works, accuse her of stealing their belongings; a mother shame Narine for not stopping Anahit from having sexual relations with her son.
Things eventually reach a climax between the sisters, leading to an opaque ending hinting at violence and the secrets kept among family members. Yet no true conclusion ever comes.
Indeed, much of what happens throughout the film is not visible to the audience, an apparent call back to one of Hayk’s first lines: ‘They say it can be invisible. Things that can’t be seen by human eyes’. Arguments happen off-screen, with only the sounds of smashing glass or insulting words thrown back and forth hinting at the possibility of violence. Characters jump from one location to another, time passing in waves with no clarity whether scenes are hours or days apart, each scene structured as a lingering tracking shot of a specific character.
Though the film’s runtime is only 90 minutes, these film-making choices create the feeling of a much longer work, one that drains the viewer rather than invigorates them.
Indeed, the most memorable and exciting aspect of Thus Spoke the Wind is the score by American composer Steve Brand. The haunting composition, featuring traditional Armenian wind instruments, lingers in the mind long after the film’s conclusion.
While touching upon a number of important aspects within Armenian society — from a woman’s right to her own sexuality and the effects of toxic masculinity — the film spends too much time avoiding any actual depth over surface-level examples, creating a piece muddled patchwork of a film that is more incomprehensible than enlightening.
Film details: Thus Spoke the Wind (2025), directed by Maria Rigel. The film is currently available to stream on Klassiki.
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It will not be possible to get rid of this power by moving only with the Electoral Code
March: 22, 2026
The constitutional order in Armenia has been defeated, there cannot be two opinions here. The constitutional order established by the Constitution no longer exists, and in these conditions, the person who holds all the levers of power resorts to illegal methods. A question may arise: if the constitutional order has been defeated, the electoral processes have already been disrupted, is it meaningful to participate in the electoral process, and in general, can we have certain expectations from these elections? 168TV’s “ expressed such an opinion during the program Constitutionalist Vardan Poghosyan.
“Regardless of what steps the government takes, what concentration of power is in the hands of the prime minister, there are two ways to get rid of this power. One is the electoral path, the other is the vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister stipulated by Article 115 of the Constitution. Unfortunately, from 2022 until now, the titular opposition, first of all, for subjective, but also objective reasons, failed to implement that process. There is an opportunity to do this before the election day, June 7,” said the lawyer.
“We have a government for which the Constitution no longer draws any boundaries. They define their own boundaries. The Constitution does not provide any time limit for expressing no confidence in the Prime Minister and electing a new Prime Minister at the same time. That would be the best way, in that case we could already be sure that the elections on June 7 would pass in a normal way, and Armenia would not face various disasters. It is impossible to rule out that this government will not take illegal steps to keep its power until June 7 and after that,” Poghosyan said.
According to the constitutional expert, many parties and politicians are deeply mistaken that it will be possible to get rid of this power only by following the rules provided by the Electoral Code.
“The government has used all measures, it openly allows European and Western structures to interfere in these processes. “Foreign services have started their activities to protect Armenia from the so-called “hybrid threats”, and under these conditions, it should not be assumed that the authorities will be guided by all the rules of the Electoral Code.”
“Regardless of how many parties will participate in the elections, what pre-election programs they will have, if they really set a goal to get rid of the current authorities through these elections, they should take several steps. The first main step is to explain to the electorate that we are not a European country, and the process of getting rid of the government will not end on June 7. It should start much earlier. People should be ready to go out into the streets,” said Vardan Poghosyan.
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We are still waiting for Samvel Karapetyan’s permission to appear in a video message
We are still waiting for the decision of the investigator regarding the permission to appear in a video message to Samvel Karapetyan, for which we applied in January, February, March, this time it seems we are getting the permission. Lawyer Aram Vardevanyan announced this on his Facebook page.
“In any case, let’s see. But an important record. during this entire period, it was admitted and proven that the next lies and manipulations were being spread, because the probation service could not give such a permission and did not give it, but the investigative service just gave it.
That’s what the investigator’s statement was about,” he said.
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California Armenian Legislative Caucus Foundation Announces New Member: Senate
End of “tax terror”. Pashinyan only demands honesty from business
The government of Armenia puts an end to speculations about pressures on businessmen. The authorities guarantee unprecedented support, demanding absolute fiscal discipline in return.
During the government session held on March 19, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan categorically denied rumors circulating on social networks and in letters that the state has started a campaign to intimidate the private sector. The head of the government emphasized that there is no desire or purpose to terrorize the economy.
On the contrary, the state implements incentive programs worth tens of billions, thanks to which almost every company today benefits from preferential loans or state support for equipment modernization. According to the Prime Minister, this concept of transparent cooperation was discussed during a workshop with businessmen held in Jermuk last year, which led to relevant legislative changes. In return for this extensive support, the state expects only strict compliance from the business.
Pashinyan emphasized that they do not demand a single penny more, but they will not tolerate a single penny less tax payment. The Prime Minister concluded his speech with an assurance, officially declaring tax terror closed and, more importantly, not declaring it open.
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If the degree of danger increases, then Iran will have to start attacking Azerbaijan
March: 19, 2026
At this stage of the Iran-US-Israeli military conflict that began in February, oil and energy facilities are being actively targeted, and there is already talk of different goals that the US and Israel have towards Iran.
On a number of issues in the context of this topic 168.amhas had a conversation Analytical “Base”. of the center founder Vitaly with Mangasaryan.
– It has been almost a month since the US-Israeli military operation against Iran began, the military and political leaders of Iran were killed. In any case, how do you assess the course of the Iran-US-Israel war from a military, tactical point of view at the moment, who has what advantages, or what advantages and weaknesses do the parties – Iran, the US, Israel – show, including tactical, military, military-technical? By the way, during this period, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan On one occasion, he made it clear to Iran that it should prepare well and make power calculations before entering into a conflict with Israel and the USA. “Cyber intelligence, radio intelligence, electronic intelligence, preventive intelligence, air surveillance, satellite data based on on intelligence… If you you are not perform your “home work” and you are not to develop your abilities this areas, then not worth it times orally skirmish in enter Israel and: America with
If: you indeed preparing are you such March then your the power this areas need is flawless be Besides this in order to the country can protect her aerial the area, he need is high efficiency safe Air defense, radar and radio electronic of pressure systems sectors”.
– When analyzing the current course of the conflict, it becomes obvious that technological and intelligence supremacy still remains on the side of Israel and the USA. The capabilities of this tandem in the fields of cyber-intelligence, radio-electronic warfare (REP) and satellite surveillance allow for surgical precision strikes, which we also saw during last year’s 12-day escalation.
One of the strengths of Israel and the United States is the effectiveness of the integrated intelligence systems. HUMINT, SIGINT, cyber intelligence and satellite data work together in a single operational network. This system allows not only to detect targets, but also to direct the strike means in real time.
In the case of Iran, the picture is different. Although inferior in technology and air, it displays enviable resilience and strategic patience. Iran has built an asymmetric warfare model, relying on medium-range missiles and drones. At the same time, in order to succeed against such adversaries, cyber, radio-electronic and air control capabilities are naturally important, where Iran, being de facto alone, has certain problems. However, Iran is trying to fill those gaps with non-standard solutions.
Iran’s volitional factor deserves special attention. If we imagine what would happen to the USA, Israel, or any other country, if they had such high-level losses, especially in influential military and scientific circles, as Iran has, we would most likely see a serious internal crisis. Iran, on the contrary, shows stability and systemic resistance. This indicates that the worst scenarios were not only calculated there, but also integrated into the state strategy for years.
At this stage, the impression is created that Iran is going to a cold-hearted and calculated “wa-bank”, well understanding that there is simply no other option. At the same time, we see how almost all existing red lines in international relations are crossed day by day. Perhaps the most dangerous line remains, the use of weapons of mass destruction, but current dynamics show that even that line is no longer guaranteed.
– In the background of the war against Iran, what are the ulterior motives behind the position taken by Israel’s strategic ally Azerbaijan and Turkey, which does not have bad relations with the USA, apart from what is officially announced? By the way, Iran does not seem to believe in Azerbaijan’s sincerity that it will not give its territory to a 3rd country, or that there are no Israeli facilities there.
– For Turkey, the situation around Iran, in general, opens up new opportunities. From the perspective of regional competition, Iran is one of the main players that limits the expansion of Turkey’s influence both in the South Caucasus and the Middle East. Iran’s weakening, for whatever reason, means that Ankara gets a wider field to advance its political and economic initiatives, including energy projects and transportation routes. At the same time, Turkey continues to pursue a cautious policy, not taking an open anti-Iranian stance, as it is interested in maintaining economic ties and avoiding unforeseen consequences.
As for Azerbaijan, we know that they declare that their territory is not used for operations against Iran, but I think that Iran does not believe those statements, to put it mildly. Tehran’s suspicions are mainly due to the fact that Baku has deep strategic relations with Israel.
It is especially important to remember that Israel’s role during the 2020 Artsakh war was significant in terms of supplying military technology and weapons, which significantly contributed to Azerbaijan’s success, and, of course, Baku has a certain obligation to Israel. Moreover, a number of previously recorded cases, which were perceived as unfriendly steps in Tehran, further deepened the atmosphere of mistrust.
I am sure that it is obvious to the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran that Azerbaijan has become a platform from which Israel can “hear and see” the deep processes of Iran. Under these conditions, Baku’s assurances are considered in Iran as a tactic to gain time.
Is it appropriate for Iran to give a tough answer to Azerbaijan at this very moment? I think that Iran is calculating and evaluating that, under the current tension, a large-scale conflict on the northern border may bring additional problems.
At the same time, I think that if the degree of danger increases, then Iran will have to start attacking the Israeli bases located in Azerbaijan.
– To what extent was the importance of Nakhichevan highlighted in the context of this war for Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey, and in your opinion, how is it possible to attack Nakhichevan with non-Iranian drones?
– The geographical position of Nakhichevan, bordering Iran and Turkey, turns it into a potential military-political base. The geographical location of Nakhichevan is the factor that theoretically makes it a suitable platform for operations against Iran, be it intelligence activity, use of drone systems or other format of intervention.
For Turkey, this area is no less important, as it provides a direct border between Turkey and Azerbaijan. This enables Ankara to quickly respond to regional developments and, if necessary, strengthen its military and political presence. In the conditions of the possible weakening of Iran, Nakhichevan can turn into an important base for the advancement of Turkish influence.
From Iran’s point of view, Nakhichevan remains a high-risk destination. It has been hinted many times in Tehran that this area can be used by third countries, especially Israel.
As for ATS, in my opinion, there are two logical options, and I think both of them have the right to life.
The first is that the management of operations in Iran is somewhat decentralized, and it is possible that the commander of an individual military unit made an independent decision to “punish” Azerbaijan for its involvement in anti-Iranian processes.
The other hypothesis suggests that such an operation could have been organized by Israel’s special services with the aim of escalating anti-Iranian sentiments.
– President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev confirmed the other day Amendments to the Law “On Expropriation of Land for State Needs”, according to which the expansion of state-owned airports and airfields, as well as the construction of new airports and airfields, have been added to the list of state needs for which land can be expropriated. We know that there are Azerbaijani airports in the occupied Artsakh territories, this is still as a result of the 2020 war, is it possible to expand them?
– It is no secret that immediately after the war of 2020, Azerbaijan started the construction of airports with great intensity and amazing speed, particularly in Fizuli, Zangelan and Lachin. Although official propaganda presents them as “international civilian airports”, the reality is different. until today, civil flights have been served, one can say, counting on the fingers, and their economic burden remains close to zero.
Opinions have been repeatedly voiced from the Iranian governmental and expert circles that these airports are being built in order to be used as a springboard against Iran in the future. The Iranian side has repeatedly expressed concern that these facilities may be provided to Israel’s special services.
The legislative changes adopted in Azerbaijan should be considered not only as an economic or infrastructural initiative, but as part of a broader strategy. If we take into account the growth of regional tension and the emerging pressures on Iran, the rapid construction of airports can have far-reaching goals.
– By the way What differences can there be between Azerbaijan and Turkey in the background of the war against Iran, which is not visible?
– If Turkey seeks the weakening of Iran in order to establish its own regional hegemony, then it is not at all interested in the complete collapse of Iran. For Ankara, Iran’s chaos means the flow of millions of refugees to its borders and the possible activation of the Kurdish factor, while Baku may have more radical ambitions related to the idea of ”Southern Azerbaijan” and ethnic awakening.
The second important contradiction lies in the role of Israel, which is the number one strategic partner for Azerbaijan regarding Iran, but remains an ideological and political rival for Turkey in the Middle East. In the event of a war against Iran, Azerbaijan can become the main base of the Israeli military machine, which for Turkish President Erdogan can be perceived as an unacceptable increase of Israel’s influence in his “backyard”. Ankara will not want to see a situation where Baku receives more instructions from Tel Aviv than from itself, which could lead to serious internal jealousy.
– What conclusions should Armenia make against the background of all this, from the point of view of the war against Iran, the creation of strategic relations with the USA, de facto withdrawal from the CSTO, in general, from the security point of view?
– Armenia’s primary concern should be to follow the development of events, constantly reassess the risks and be ready for various scenarios, from border instability to disruption of regional communications.
At the same time, the so-called multi-vector approach of Armenia’s foreign policy cannot have real effectiveness if it is disconnected from regional realities.
Deepening relations with the USA is important, but it should not be done to the detriment of relations with immediate neighbors, especially Iran, which is not only an economic but also a vital security partner for Armenia. The same applies to the process of de facto withdrawal from CSTO. it should be accompanied by clear calculations, alternative security mechanisms, and not remain in a “vacuum”.
Armenia should show a humanitarian gesture to friendly Iran by sending some help, for example, medical personnel or small fire-rescue units. It is surprising the fact that Armenia is able to send humanitarian cargo to Turkey, even reaching the opening of the Margara checkpoint for this purpose, but it does not show similar determination in the case of its long-standing friend Iran.
If there is a funeral at your neighbor’s house, and you not only don’t go to sympathize, but also turn on loud music and ostentatiously have fun, it is at least short-sighted. One cannot ignore the pain of one’s neighbor just because your distant friend across the distant ocean has strained relations with that family. To ignore the plight of a good neighbor means to endanger the peace of one’s own home in the future.
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