Heti Vilaggazdasag , Hungary
Sept 6 2012
The Peacock Backfires
by Matyas Eorsi, Hungarian foreign policy expert and former SZDSZ
(Alliance of Free Democrats) MP
[Prime Minister] Viktor Orban has visited Azeri President Aliyev
already twice, foreign affairs factotum Peter Szijjarto [state
secretary for foreign affairs and external economic relations at the
Prime Minister’s Office] has also done it once, and who knows the
number of visits that have not become public. For years, Azerbaijan
was important for Central and Southern Europe because of Nabucco,
however, Hungary has left the gas pipeline programme so something else
must be in the focus of the Hungarian government’s attention. In this
undoubtedly difficult and crisis-laden period, when Hungary is
suffering from a shortage of money, but is reluctant to make an
agreement with the IMF because it is setting rational conditions, and
while the money markets are only willing to finance us on interest
rates that are impossible to produce, an assistance worth 2-3 billion
euros is undoubtedly welcome. The bond issues in Saudi-Arabia and in
the Emirates have fallen through, and the country’s financial
prospects are becoming increasingly more worrying, so it is
understandable if the Hungarian government is willing to make various
allowances in exchange for someone to finance its unorthodox economic
policy
There is no reason to doubt that Hungary asked Azerbaijan to subscribe
to Hungarian government securities. If Azerbaijan is partner to this,
it will obviously charge a high price for it. An economic price, if
possible, and of course political, too – why not? If President Aliyev
asked (among others) for the extradition of the axe murderer Safarov,
the Hungarian objection that he made a promise that the prison
sentence would be continued becomes largely pointless. Safarov is a
national hero in Baku, like Usamah Bin-Ladin was in Afghanistan or Che
in Cuba. For Aliyev, a Safarov languishing in the Baku prison is only
a burden, and the extradition only makes sense if he frees him through
pardon, because this is the way he can shine as the protector of the
Azeri “hero.”
The letter of the Azeri Justice Ministry does not even contain a
promise, it only relates the relevant Azeri laws and provides
information on the earliest date of a conditional release. At the same
time, it says nothing about the possibility of a presidential pardon,
even though Article 12 of the international convention [Convention on
the Transfer of Sentenced Persons] the extradition was based on makes
the granting of pardon explicitly possible. The Hungarian authorities
did not read or did not understand the convention, perhaps
deliberately did not notice that the Azeri side had not made any
commitment in connection with a presidential pardon. Everyone can
decide which version is more worrying.
Although foreign-minister-superior Peter Szijjarto wanted to make
people believe that, after the convict’s request, it was only a matter
of international legal automatism, however, this is hardly believable.
In the case of a government that is as merciless as possible in the
area of penal law, and where the rights of convicts are the least
important, it is very unlikely that it would accept an international
conflict by meeting the request of an Azeri murderer while it does not
have any legal obligation for this. This does not fit into the image
of the Orban government, so the reason can only be a political favour
for the Azeri president.
Perhaps the Hungarian government believed that the foreign policy
risks were dwarfed by the hoped-for benefit: Armenia would surely get
upset but the waves would die down eventually. It cannot have guessed
that Yerevan would break diplomatic relations and alarm the world,
that President Obama would also express his disquiet, and who knows
when this issue will end. It is impossible that the Hungarian
government did not know that the power of the Armenian lobby was one
of the strongest in the world.
However, invoking the spirit of the System of National Cooperation,
let us try to presume about the Hungarian government that it was
acting in good faith and took President Aliyev’s prom ise seriously
that the axe murderer would spend his sentence in prison. If this is
so, we have especially much reason to be surprised. Was it not
precisely Orban who laid down the bases of the peacock dance in
international diplomacy? “We must do the rejection as if we were
making friends” – he taught his audience. Peacock dance means that we
say one thing and do another, and in the short term this can be
successful in an environment (European Union) where it is customary to
do what one says.
Therefore, if President Aliyev conned Prime Minister Orban, he did
nothing other than practice the politics Orban himself finds
exemplary. As he received the agreed price in advance, we cannot be
surprised, either, that his promise regarding the subscription to
Hungarian government securities has already been lost in the mists of
time – however, in light of the current scandal, we should actually be
happy about this.
Viktor Orban, the international grand master of peacock dance, has
suffered an ignominious defeat. He has found his match.
[Translated from Hungarian]
From: Baghdasarian