Author: Baghdasarian Karlen

Sergey Grinyaev: Decision to change administration in Tbilisi was
adopted by “managers from Washington”
Interview with Sergey Grinyaev, Director General of the Russian Center
of Strategic Assessment and Forecasts

by David Stepanyan

ARMINFO
Saturday, October 6, 15:49

Despite Mikheil Saakashvili’s anti-Russian policy, some of Georgia’s
key infrastructures are owned by Russia. Now that Bidzina Ivanishvili
has own the parliamentary elections can we expect more Russian capital
in that country?

Several companies at the territory of Georgia really belong to the
Russian private capital. As for the Russian state capital, its share
is not so much in Georgia, and will not grow much, at least, if the
“Georgian dream” comes to power, Russian political expert. As for the
private capital, here the situation is dictated only by the interests
of business – if the administration offers interesting cooperation
conditions, in that case the share of the Russian business in Georgia
will grow. Georgia’s example at the post-Soviet territory is not
unique. In this context, we may remember the Baltic countries, which
have been actively conducting the anti-Russian policy but at the same
time existing at the expense of taxes for transportation of Russian
cargo through the Baltic ports.

Throughout their election campaign Georgian Dream kept expressing
loyalty to Georgia’s pro-western orientation. Was it just a
pre-election move or will Ivanishvili continue moving westward in a
view of the fact that the United States continues being the key
sponsor of Georgia’s infrastructure projects?

The current foreign policy course of Tbilisi will be continued.
Georgia will not get too serious geopolitical position. Neither will
U.S. lose its influence in the region with change of administration in
Georgia. I think that the scenario of changing power in Tbilisi is
nothing but a process of manageable transfer of power from one
controlled group to another controlled group. Therefore, President
Mihkeil Saakashvili so easily became opposition. I think he would
never do that but for his confidence in his future. Saakashvili needed
‘re-branding’, indeed, because it has become too inadequate partner
even by standards of the U.S. Department of State. Saakashvili’s
carrier of an inefficient manager ended when he got involved in the
August War of 2008 and gained no dividends despite the West’s support.
Nevertheless, he believes that Saakashvili will not be left in trouble
even now. He will go to reserve like many persons of his level who
rose and fell on the CIS political horizon over the last decades.
Nevertheless, the situation in Georgia may get out of control because
the knot has got too tight in the given part of the region.

Besides the claims to sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
Ankara openly claims Adjara. In addition, the social-economic
situation in the country is getting worse. Therefore, ‘managers from
Washington’ adopted a decision to change administration in Tbilisi,”

What changes can we expect in Armenian-Georgian trade-economic
relations now that Georgian-Russian relations may change?

First of all, we should expect growth of commodity circulation between
Armenia and Georgia, including at the expense of Russian cargo
transit. We should also expect activation of the Russian business
activity, for which the transport problems of communication with
Armenia were important when calculating the economic benefit of the
new projects. Moreover, in case of the new conditions, investments
will be made in the transport infrastructure as well. I do not rule
out that the Russian state capital will be also attracted.
Undoubtedly, this will be a good sign for Armenia. Nevertheless, I
would like to emphasize that there is still no ground to say that the
situation in the Russian-Georgian relations will radically change.

Georgia is the key transit country for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What geo-political transformations can we expect in the South Caucasus
following the change of power in Georgia?

Indeed at present Georgia is an important element of the
geo-strategical maneuvers of the superpowers in the South Caucasus.
This is the reason of the scenario being developed in Georgia today,
as the USA does not want to lose control over the political situation
in such an important region especially that it has tense relations
with Iran. I think that another problem – aspiration of Georgia to
join NATO, is also linked with it. Anyway, at present I see no
obviously positive tendencies which could define the nature of the
bilateral Russian-Georgian relations at least for the mid-term
prospect. I offer to wait for the traditional “100 days” of Bidzina
Ivanishvili and after that we shall be able to make specific
conclusions and even predictions.

From: Baghdasarian

Chris Bohjalian to Receive Arts and Letters Award at ANCA

17:25, 6 October, 2012

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 6, ARMENPRESS: Critically acclaimed New York Times
bestselling author Chris Bohjalian will be honored with the
ANCA-Western Region Arts and Letters Award at its Annual Banquet on
October 28 at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California. As
Armenpress reports referring to Asbarez.com. `Mr. Bohjalian deftly
uses his extraordinary writing talent to tell the story of the
Armenian Genocide in The Sandcastle Girls, making a significant
contribution to the rich literature on this historical tragedy,’ said
ANCA-WR Co-Chair Chris Guldjian. `The Arts and Letters Award, which
Mr. Bohjalian is receiving, recognizes the immense impact this work
has had, and will undoubtedly continue to have, on the American
public.’

Bohjalian, who has penned fourteen novels, including four other New
York Times bestsellers, has called The Sandcastle Girls `the most
important book he will ever write.’ His novel, Midwives, was a number
one New York Times bestseller and was turned into a movie, in addition
to two others, `Secrets of Eden’ and `Past the Bleachers.’

After learning of the award Bohjalian commented `I hoped that `The
Sandcastle Girls’ would educate people to the reality of the Armenian
Genocide, but I never expected the groundswell of interest from
readers across the United States who was unfamiliar with our story.
Likewise, I have been overwhelmed by the support of the Armenian
community – here and around the world. This particular honor leaves me
humbled and moved – and deeply and profoundly grateful’.

Chris Bohjalian was born to an Armenian father and Swedish mother. His
Armenian grandparents were survivors of the Armenian Genocide. His
first novel, A Killing in the Real World, was released in 1988. His
third novel, Past the Bleachers, was released in 1992 and was adapted
to a Hallmark Channel television movie in 1995.

From: Baghdasarian

Prosperous Armenia party MP says 2011 budget implementation ineffective

tert.am
15:46 – 06.10.12

Prosperous Armenia party considers the 2011 budget implementation very
ineffective and unsatisfactory and in case it has participated in the
voting it would have voted against it, MP, deputy head of Economic
Affairs Standing Committee Michael Melkumyan told the reporters today.

He said he has personally participated in the joint sittings of the
commissions followed the four-day sitting and claimed that the
presented economic growth’s quality is quite suspicious.

`I have asked 3-4 officials whether the living conditions of our
public has improved, remained the same or worsened, they did not give
any answer, which means the living conditions are bad,’ he said.

The report on 2011 budget implementation has been approved with 70 for
and 6 against.

The MP said he has compared the inflation with the salaries and
concluded that no positive change has been registered in population’s
income.

Besides, the government fails to forecast its actions.

From: Baghdasarian

Vartan Oskanian likely to be charged on Monday

15:12 06/10/2012 » Law

Prosperous Armenia Party member Vartan Oskanian is likely to be charged on
Monday, Sona Truzyan, a spokesperson for Armenian Prosecutor General, told
Panorama.am. She added that Oskanian is due for questioning on Monday,
October 8.

On October 2, the Armenian National Assembly by the vote of 64 to 6
approved the petition by Armenian Prosecutor General to strip Vartan
Oskanian of immunity.

Aghvan Hopsepyan gave assurances that Vartan Oskanian will not be arrested,
the investigation will be transparent, and the results of the investigation
will be available to public.

Read also: No decision yet on involving Oskanian as defendant in Civilitas
case

*Source:* Panorama.am

From: Baghdasarian

Fear Makes Decisions

Naira Hayrumyan

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 15:07:08 – 06/10/2012

Fear is the driving force of the political class of Armenia which has
forced to make criminal decisions. The Armenian political figures
justify everything with this fear, from voting to Vartan Oskanian’s
case to ratification of the humiliating CSTO protocol.

Who are we to oppose Serzh Sargsyan, Robert Kocharyan, Russia and
Turkey? One can listen to confessions of one’s own insignificance from
Armenian figures even in public speeches. The statements of the
president of the National Assembly and the prime minister that the
president has instructed to fight corruption or not to recognize
Karabakh independence illustrates it best.

The feeling of fear exaggerates the danger. Diplomats think as soon as
they say something against their president, they will be sacked
immediately and deprived of their possessions. They think if they
announce that the Armenian state and not Russia is the guarantee of
our security, the Russian FSS will visit them right away. They think
if they speak about territorial claims to Turkey, Erdogan will punish
them.

The members of parliament have reason to fear. Most of them have made
a fortune with the help of obedience and they know they can lose
everything in a second if they oppose and express their own opinion.
On the other hand, most people do not have an opinion at all. There
are popular jokes on the intellect of some members of parliament.

Nevertheless, fear is a factor that mashes even the existing
intellect. The same fear makes opposition members of parliament escape
the meetings of parliament, boycott them in order not to have to
express a principled position on principal issues.

Fear makes ministers and members of parliament silent when the Control
Chamber directly accuses officials of money laundering. They do not
even dare support their colleagues.

Fear made the members of parliament approve the prosecutor general’s
motion to strip Oskanian of immunity because everyone thinks if they
support Oskanian, someone will punish them. Fear has made Ara
Abrahamyan deny his own statement supporting Oskanian.

Fear from Turkey made the government reject again the bill on
recognizing the independence of NKR. Fear from Russia made the
parliament ratify the CSTO protocol.

The parliament of Armenia needs a psychologist or a healer which will
help it rid of fears. Mr. members of parliament, what’s happening with
you? How long can you fear your own shadow? You have not been elected
for selling out everything out of fear. Another decision and you will
already have to fear the fury of people. This fear will already be
substantial.

From: Baghdasarian

ArmTech Congress’12 this year will take place on November 14-15 in
Silicon Valley

05-10-2012 18:36:15 | USA | Announcements

Armenia’s 5th global high-tech industry annual conference ArmTech
Congress’12, under the patronage of the RA Prime Minister, this year
will take place on November 14-15 in Silicon Valley, USA, at the
premises of Stanford University. ArmTech’12 is the third conference
being held in Silicon Valley.

ArmTech Congress aims tofurtherArmenia’s high-tech industry
developmentand promotestrengthening of international business links as
well asgrowth of investments. Itis an important platform for
discussion, planning and effective implementation of strategies and
initiatives aimed at the progress of Armenia’s technological and
economic achievements.The conference offers a unique opportunity to
represent Armenia’s high-tech industry to international high-tech
community and to increase global recognition of Armenia as one of the
fastest growing high-tech destinations in the world.

ArmTech’12 will host government officials, industry representatives
and leading academics from Armenia, the U.S., Russia, Australia,
Europe, Latin America and CIS countries. The conference will be
focused on themes such as business environment for high-tech sector in
Armenia, higher education and researchsystems, sector financing
platforms and investment perspectivesas well asthe main achievements
and perspectives for the sector will be represented. Participation of
well-known delegates will bring the conference to a new level and
increase the interest towards Armenia’s fast-growing high-tech
industry.

ArmTech Congress is one of the largestpublic-private-international
organizationspartnerships in Armenia.

For further information please visit

News from Armenia and Diaspora – Noyan Tapan

From: Baghdasarian

Georgian Leader Bursts

Igor Muradyan

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 13:14:02 – 06/10/2012

Hard though David Rstakyan, a Javakheti-based Armenian politician
deeply respected by me, may try to interpret the chauvinistic
pronouncement by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the European experts warning
about a serious threat from this politician for the Armenians of
Georgia, were apparently right. All the other pronouncements and
statements by the fresh Georgian leader were crisp and clear, certain
and tactful, whereas the Armenians were again unlucky.

Soon the reasons for Ivanishvili’s chauvinistic mood will become
known, whether they are related to the pre-electoral situation or his
genetic code. It is possible that in a different situation more
reserved pronouncements would be made by this nouveau riche on the
Armenians but since the Armenian voters demonstrated `loyalty’ to the
government, they deprived themselves of a social and political
maneuver.

The Armenians should have boycotted the elections or voted for the
marginal parties running in the election.

Ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election the Armenian
community is facing a similar situation, and the Armenians of Russia
have already gone through it. It is clear that the Armenian community
needs a political leadership.

It is simply funny to expect that the so-called traditional Armenian
parties or NGOs recognized as legitimate by the government or the
Ministry of Diaspora could fulfill this goal. These organizations are
not intended for this, they lack the necessary leverages and do not
pursue these goals.

Nevertheless, the Armenian communities of countries of importance for
Armenia faced a social and political fiasco though most leaders of
communities say they are doing well, and only some finishing is left
to complete the structural work. It is clear that the bid on
individual choice which the radical liberal diaspora activists stick
to is not viable because there are no doubts that the national and
community interests of Armenia in almost all the countries are related
to the social, economic and political interests of these countries.

The communities should act in solidarity, and the political parties
and groups of different countries must understand this. The question
is not political or ideological orientation but the position and
character of Armenian Diaspora leaders. The Armenians are usually
detracted from the solution of organizational matters and issues of
functionaries by the mindset that the Armenian communities are much
better organized and ready to fulfill goals which other ethnic
communities and their organizations cannot do.

However, the Armenian Diaspora obviously cannot keep up with the
information and technological era which is usually referred to as
globalism and is unable to adapt to the post-modern setting. In most
cases the Armenian communities and their organizations are archaic and
traditional in their most absurd and meaningless form.

The Armenians of Georgia, particularly Javakhk, had to fight on
several fronts at the same time. The toughest front was the government
of Armenia and its satellite. The Armenian diaspora of Javakhk is a
foolish and petty mafia, and even the word mafia is too strong for
them. The local government of Javakhk is a group of conformists who
have never tried to exercise their rights laid down in the
Constitution and the legislation of Georgia. The local NGOs are
fighting with each other, ending in lack of organization and
degradation.

Thanks to geopolitical factors the issue of Javakhk, independent from
formal assessments, has acquired a political and international status.
Even with obvious success the public sector was unable to use the new
situation and set to transform Javakhk and the Armenians of Georgia to
a political subject. Who will take into account the opinion of an
unorganized mass of people?

At the same time, there is no doubt that the geopolitical interests of
the great powers of the East and the West are creating favorable
conditions for the Armenians of Georgia and they could play a more
significant role in the expanding political game in the South
Caucasus. It is notable that the new Armenian organizations in Georgia
refused to take part in the act of profanation referred to as Georgian
election and continue efforts to create new organizational structures
without people who have already exhausted their resource. This is a
new generation which understands and is ready to deal with the goals
of the modern world, and soon the Armenia-based politicians will learn
from them.

From: Baghdasarian

Haykakan Zhamanak: Russian side wants to take control of Armenia’s aviation

TERT.AM
11:10 – 06.10.12

Owner of Armavia Mikhail Baghdasarov continues keeping in secret the
buyer of his company’s shares. Speaking to reporters he again and
again repeats that the name of the purchaser will be published only
when the deal is finally reached, contract signed.

Citing its sources from Armavia, the paper claims that Baghdasarov has
decided to sell his shares still in May but the intention was not made
public while the company’s owner and representatives were rejecting
the circulating news.

Baghdasarov continues repeating that he is negotiating with three
potential buyers including Russians, Italians even Australians and few
days ago he was even speaking of Indians, and Indonesians.

The paper though claims the buyers will be Russians. The paper says it
is not even essential who the purchaser will be as the issue is a
political one as the Russian side intends to take Armenia’s aviation
area under its control.

From: Baghdasarian

Armenian President says Azerbaijan threatens new war

armradio.am
10:03 06.10.2012

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan accused Azerbaijan on Friday of
threatening a new war in Karabakh.

Azerbaijan is accumulating a `horrendous quantity’ of arms in
preparation for a resumption of fighting, Sargsyan told Reuters in an
interview. He said Armenia wanted a negotiated settlement to the
conflict and that he would spare no effort to achieve it.

`Now 18 years after the signing of theceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan
threatens us with a new war,’ Serzh Sargsyan said.

`When I say that there is hatred towards Armenians, a general
xenophobia in Azerbaijan; when I say there is a dangerous accumulation
of armaments in Azerbaijan; when I say Azerbaijan is getting prepared
for resuming military hostilities and settling the conflict by
military means, that doesn’t mean at all that there is no need to
continue with negotiations,’ the President said.

Reuters reminds that tension between the two countries has risen since
Hungary sent home to Azerbaijan an Azeri officer convicted of killing
an Armenian officer on a NATO language training course in Budapest.
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev pardoned the killer on his return to a
hero’s welcome in August.

Sargsyan said the pardon of the Azeri officer, Ramil Safarov, showed
Nagorno-Karabakh could not be part of Azerbaijan.

`It again reconfirms our view that the people of Nagorno-Karabakh have
no future in the framework of Azerbaijan.’

`We have no doubt that Azerbaijan’s aim is to change the situation by
the application of its military means and the only preventative
mechanism for their desires is the combat-readiness of the Armenian
armed forces,’ Sargsyan said.

The Armenian President called on the international community to take
`concrete steps’ in the search for a settlement.

He said Azerbaijan was in violation of a European treaty limiting
holdings of weaponry. Inspectors were aware of the situation `and
there is zero action on this’.

Sargsyan said he would stand for re-election next year. Asked if he
was confident he would see a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute,
he said: `I’m confident.

`At least I hope that I will never see Nagorno-Karabakh incorporated
in the Azerbaijani framework again and that in itself is a huge
success,’ he said.

From: Baghdasarian

Armenia is on invulnerable and far-reaching way. Serzh Sargsyan

11:55, 6 October, 2012

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 6, ARMENPRESS: Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan went
on a working trip to Vayots Dzor on October 6. The head of the
country participated in the session of the Second Conference on Rural
Communities. Serzh Sargsyan highlighted that the importance of the
local self-government system has been much spoken about and the
current policy is aimed at it. `There is an important circumstance. It
is about our role, behavior and our ability to stand by our nation’s
side. The fact is that our economical ratings have seriously
increased; we have great achievement in the electoral processes, we
have steady position in international and defence arena. But we still
don’t have public belief in the success. People are disappointed and
displeased’ noted Serzh Sargsyan.

According to the President the discontent is connected with the
socio-economic sphere, the activity of state and local self-government.

`The priority issue of our country is the public pessimistic
atmosphere, which is a serious obstacle on the way to the development.
We are to change the situation for people to believe that the way
Armenia is on, is invulnerable and far-reaching’ President
highlighted.

The conference pretends to become an annual one. The first conference
was held last year in the framework of the events dedicated to the
15th anniversary of local self-government system.

From: Baghdasarian