ARMENIA IS A GEOSTRATEGIC MASTER: IT IS IN GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE USA, RUSSIA AND IRAN
2012-10-09 15:44:16
Policymic website analyst Daniel Gaynor touched upon USA-Armenia
relations, observing them in regional measuring.
Most Americans wouldn’t be shocked to learn that the largest American
embassy in the world is in Baghdad, Iraq. But the second-largest is
in a surprising place: Armenia, policymic.com writes. It begs the
question: why?
The best explanation is a real estate mantra: location, location,
location. Armenia, a landlocked country with just 3 million people,
might be in the roughest neighborhood in the world. But in America’s
eyes, it might be in the most important position of any U.S. ally to
advance President Obama’s foreign policy agenda.
What Armenia lacks in natural resources – it has little oil, gas or
jewels – it makes up for in geography. Few countries are in better
position to shape U.S. foreign policy than Armenia.
Armenia borders Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Iran. As a part of
the former Soviet Union, it relies on nearby Russia extensively for
trade and military backing. The U.S. has a significant stake in all
five countries, and Armenia is now coming into view as a potentially
potent lever to advance American aims.
That is, if the Armenians can be won over.
As the U.S. tries to woo Armenia to become a stronger ally in the
region, the term “geostrategic” has never been more apt. Armenia is
literally at the center of a number of countries that Washington
considers among its top priorities. As President Obama tries to
accomplish key foreign policy objectives – like preventing Iran from
attaining nuclear bombs or seeing democracy flourish in Russia –
he’s got to encourage Armenia to play along.
To Armenia’s south, one such issue is unfolding in Iran’s nuclear
centrifuges. Last week, a media skirmish between the US and Israel
boiled over when Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated
publicly that America had no “moral right” to say whether or not
Israel could bomb Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
President Obama reportedly called Netanyahu at 3 a.m. to quell
tensions.
America is racing to develop every diplomatic pressure point it can
on Iran, lest Israel launch a preemptive attack and embroil America
in a third Middle East war in ten years. One of those pressure points
goes straight through Armenia.
While the US has cut off formal relations with Iran – Washington talks
through Switzerland’s embassy there – it’s no secret that it employs a
variety of foreign policy crowbars to influence and destabilize Iran’s
ruling regime. Some, like President Obama’s latest round of economic
sanctions, are well known. Partnering with Armenia is not, but could
have a major impact. Through economic and diplomatic incentives, the
U.S. is actively trying to shape Armenia into an ally. As President
Obama seeks to economically isolate Iran – his sanctions have cut the
value of Iran currency in half – he is trying to regionally isolate
the regime, as well. Armenia is key to that strategy.
For Armenia, the game is far less simple. Partnering with the U.S. –
with whom it has a good, but not great, relationship – could alienate
the few friends Armenia has left in the South Caucasus region. Armenia
wants military cooperation with Russia, but economic access to
the West.
While Armenia has tried to deepen relations with the European Union
and the US, Armenia’s two best friends at the moment are arguably
the US’s most challenging adversaries: Russia and Iran. That’s not
necessarily because of shared ideologies, or even shared interests;
it’s because Armenia doesn’t have many friends to pick from.
Of its four neighbors, two – Turkey and Azerbaijan – have have closed
off their borders to Armenia. To go on a road trip, every Armenian
must pass through either Tbilisi, Georgia or Tehran, Iran.
Why the frosty reception? Turkey, which the New York Review of Books
recently called “the historic nemesis of the Armenians,” is still
steaming mad over the negative PR associated with Armenian Genocide.
The Turks claim rogue military elements are responsible; Armenians
believe the Turkish government is reluctant to take the blame.
In either interpretation, the facts are stark: about 1.5 million
Armenians perished in a war with Turkey between 1915 and 1918. The
Turks closed off the border in 1993, and with it, a significant chunk
of Armenia’s economy disappeared. In the decades since, Armenia has
pressed for international recognition of the genocide – and rightfully
so – but that has only stoked the fire with the Turks.
But, while one would think that the genocide rift is what led Turkey
to close off its border, it’s not. Instead, Turkey is standing in
solidarity with another neighbor over a contested territory.
Azerbaijan, another former Soviet republic, shut its borders
with Armenia after the two battled over an Armenian-populated
Nagorno-Karabakh, in the 1990â~@²s. Today, the territory remains
a “semi-autonomous” area; meaning that the Azeris want it back,
the Armenians believe they control it, and the Karabakhis declared
independence (which no country has formally recognized).
Meanwhile, the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan is sliding
downhill. Last week, Azerbaijan made a deal with Hungary to extradite
a convicted Azeri murderer. (The man, 8 years ago, nearly decapitated
a sleeping Armenian serviceman with an axe at a NATO-sponsored English
class.) He was returned under the condition that he would serve at
least 25 more years in jail.
Instead, as the New York Times put it, he received “a new apartment,
eight years of back pay, a promotion to the rank of major and the
status of a national hero.” Uproar in Armenia ensued. Armenia’s
President released a statement warning, “The Armenians must not be
underestimated. We don’t want a war, but if we have to, we will fight
and win.”
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is enjoying the windfall from oil exports.
Israel, in particular, has strengthened relations with the Azeris,
purchasing 30% of their oil from them, as well as selling them over
$1.5 billion in military supplies. The U.S. is also a buyer of Azeri
oil. As the New York Times points out, Azerbaijan invested more money
in its military than Armenia’s entire state budget last year. Hardly
the sign of harmonious relations to come.
So far, Armenia’s walked a diplomatic tightrope with skill. As my
Lonely Planet travel book explains, “Despite its limited resources,
Armenia has become a master at geopolitics. What other country in
the world can say it maintains good relations with the U.S., Russia
and Iran?”
Given the cards they’re dealt, Armenia has been a remarkable success
story. If America hopes to engender greater cooperation, it’s got
to sweeten the deal – through trade agreements, offering economic
reforms and encouraging private sector development in Armenia.
Armenia became independent in 1991. Two decades later, it’s still
trying to find its footing in the region. It may not have gold, oil,
gas or jewels to give to the US. But, instead, it may have something
more useful: a strategic position in the most critical–and potentially
most dangerous–region in the world.
From: Baghdasarian
http://lurer.com/?p=46993&l=en