The New York Post
May 3 2014
Putin’s vengeful plan to take back the old Russian empire
By Ralph Peters
When I was a child and Soviet dinosaurs roamed the earth, a potato
chip ad dared Americans “Bet you can’t eat just one!” That about
captures President Vladimir Putin’s lip-smacking attitude toward his
neighbors and any territorial snack that was ever “Russian.” Over
time, he’d like to devour the whole bag.
What’s often misunderstood about Putin is that, while he pines for the
vanished image of Soviet power, he knows that Communism didn’t work.
Nor does he expect to re-establish the Soviet Union’s domination over
Europe’s eastern half (as much as he’d welcome it). Putin has become a
Great-Russian nationalist, a bigoted throwback to the days before the
Bolsheviks arrived. His intent is to regain all the lands that once
belonged to the czars.
When President Obama declared in March that Putin “has no ideology,”
he betrayed his ignorance of both history and Putin. Who’s briefing
this guy?
Putin’s ideology is nationalism, the only belief system that may have
killed as many human beings as Marxism. And when a “post-modern”
talk-talk America president faces a Russian leader who’s a man of
action and whose concept of nationhood refers to the late 19th
century, our cherished negotiations merely seal the deal on what
Putin’s already taken (anyone really think he’ll give back Crimea and
flee from eastern Ukraine?).
Obama talks, Putin kills.
And make no mistake, Putin truly believes he’s entitled to reclaim
Ukraine and a great deal more. In his view, independent capitals from
Warsaw (yes, Warsaw) to Bishkek are integral and natural parts of the
Russian imperium. He regards them as property stolen from its rightful
owner: Moscow.
The Putin Doctrine gives Moscow the right, in his view, to intervene
wherever ethnic Russians or merely Russian speakers are “threatened.”
Here’s a look at the long-term framework in which Putin means to
reconstitute Russia’s empire with “blood and iron”:
Modal Trigger
Photo:
The Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania
Like western Ukraine, these states are incontestably part of Europe,
civilized, sophisticated and, incidentally, beautiful. But unlike
Ukraine, they’re NATO members, a status that still serves as a
deterrent to Russia. Putin would love to digest them, but even he’s
reluctant to violate a NATO border — for now. But the coastline and
ports remain attractive, as does the highly skilled workforce (Estonia
may be the most “wired” state on the planet).
So what will Putin do? For now, he’ll exploit any opportunities to
further divide the region’s Russian minorities from the indigenous
majorities. And while Lithuania’s population is only 6% ethnic Russian
(the Russian boot crashed down late), over a quarter of Estonia’s and
Latvia’s citizens are ethnic Russians — and Putin’s invented claims
that they’re abused.
Moscow’s playing a long game on this one, but, in the meantime, Putin
doesn’t mean to let these states get too comfortable. For their parts,
the local populations remember and hate what the Russians did to their
countries — especially the Soviets.
Belarus
Hobbled by a dictator who knows he can’t afford to annoy Putin,
Belarus, with its ethnic and linguistic affinities to Russia, is
Putin’s when he decides he really wants it. Strategically, he owns it
already, but without the hassle of paying its many bills. Only 8% of
the population’s Great Russian, but the White Russian majority relates
closely (“Belorus” means “White Russia”).
Poland? Yup, Poland.
The northeastern third, anyway, including Warsaw. The late czars ruled
that stretch under one of the most cynical agreements ever wrought on
the European continent. And Warsaw is, beyond question, a truly
European city, a bridgehead to the West. Poland may be way down on
Putin’s to-do list, but it’s there, NATO member or not. The bad blood
spilled over centuries between civilized, European Poles and Russian
barbarians (not least, the Soviet variant) has left some of the
world’s most-profound hatreds. No country has suffered more injustice
than Poland, and Russia has been the worst perp. As with Ukraine, for
Putin this one’s personal.
Ukraine
Even in the three easternmost provinces currently under contention,
ethnic Russians are not in the majority. But Putin is re-teaching the
world the old lesson — which we’ve done our best to forget — that the
fate of nations often isn’t decided by majorities, but by a determined
handful of men with guns. Having seized Crimea with eye-popping ease,
Putin is now beginning to gnaw at the rest of Ukraine.
He’ll take those eastern provinces when he’s ready, then expand along
the Black Sea coast, building a strategic bridge to Crimea.
At his leisure, perhaps over years, he’ll snag the rest of Ukraine,
too — including the far west that never belonged to Russia’s empire
until raped by the Bolsheviks.
A key to understanding Putin is that he’s vengeful, a fiercely
emotional man beneath his icy exterior, and he wants to punish Ukraine
for derailing his initial plans. And we’ll let him do it.
Moldova
Putin will eventually want to connect Ukraine territory to the
nuthouse pro-Russian separatists in Moldova’s breakaway “republic” of
Transdniestria. Ukraine’s the main course, Moldova is dessert.
Armenia
Threatened by Muslim neighbors (yes, it was a genocide!), tiny
Armenia, a fraction of what it was in its glory days, has long looked
to Moscow as its protector and ally. If the dominos start falling in
the Caucasus, Armenia will associate with Russia voluntarily — and
gain territory from Azerbaijan for its loyalty. Few Russians, but
plenty of ties.
Azerbaijan
Gas. Oil. Pipelines. Plus, Muslim (if liberally so). Azerbaijan serves
as a pass-through for Islamist terrorists active in Russia’s
neighboring and troubled state of Dagestan. Putin does not see yet
just how to get it, but he certainly wants it — along with its
southern border with Iran. Would the West stop him?
Georgia
Putin still has Georgia on his mind. When wrested from the Ottoman
Turks over two centuries ago, Georgia became not only a vital outpost
on Russia’s frontier but a loyal ally (and the birthplace of Josef
Stalin). Outraged by Georgia’s new taste for independence, Putin has
already dismantled part of the country through military action (and
learned, in the process, that the West would do nothing but chatter).
He’ll get around to the rest. Not many Russians left there, but Putin
won’t care.
Uzbekistan
Putin would like to have it, but he just may decide it would be more
trouble than it’s worth. As long as Uzbekistan toes the line and
serves as a buffer north of Afghanistan, Putin may forego a second
conquest. That said, Putin’s appetite could prove insatiable, and
there’s a lot of history here. The daring, heroic Russian conquest of
the savage emirates of Bukhara and Samarkand still resonates with
Russians who know their history. Just when we were taming our Wild
West, Russia was subduing its Wild East. And these are lands that
conquerors have always found hard to resist.
Russians are under 10% of the population — and disliked, as I can
personally attest, having been mistaken for one in a marketplace.
Kazakhstan
Even before he swallows the last of Ukraine, Putin is likely to turn
east to Kazakhstan (before sparring with NATO over the Baltics).
Almost a quarter of this vast country’s population is ethnic Russian,
providing justification under the Putin doctrine — requiring only a
few staged provocations — as well as a fifth column of agitators such
as Moscow employs in Ukraine. Kazakhstan’s a tremendous prize, given
its natural resources, the Baikonur space-testing ground, other
defense facilities and a position that all but divides Russia’s west
from its East. Kazakhstan will have even less capacity to resist than
Ukraine, while the West will take even less interest in its fate.
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan & Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan has massive gas reserves, frontage on the Caspian, a
border with Iran and 7% of the population is Russian –no doubt
“endangered” in Putin’s mind. Look for Vlad to stir up trouble.
Kyrgyzstan, also with 7% Russian population, already does Moscow’s
bidding in important matters, so it might do as a mere satellite.
Tajikistan is backward, raw, but useful if you have to deal with
Afghanistan and parts south. Low priority for Putin, but he’ll keep an
eye on it.
Ralph Peters is Fox News’ strategic analyst and a retired US Army
officer who specialized in Russian affairs.
From: Baghdasarian
http://nypost.com/2014/05/03/putins-vengeful-plan-to-recapture-the-old-russian-empire/