CAN ALIYEV’S PACIFISM BE TRUSTED?
Tuesday, 12 August 2014 10:49
So, a trilateral meeting of the Presidents of Armenia, Russia,
and Azerbaijan took place in Sochi on August 10, during which the
Karabakh conflict settlement process was discussed. As you know,
recently, due to the provocative actions of Azerbaijan expressed in
the intensification of the sniper war and sabotage acts, which led to
casualties on both sides, the risk of the situation’s getting out of
control has extremely increased. It should be noted that before the
current initiative of the Russian party to hold a trilateral meeting
in Sochi, President of France Francois Hollande made a proposal to
organize a dialogue between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents
inParis.
Later, it was also talked about a possible meeting between Sargsyan
and Aliyev in Vienna or New York.However, after the sharp escalation
of the situation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that
the Russian President was ready to meet in Sochi with the heads of
the two states both individually and in a trilateral format. Whatever
it was, but the fact is that the meeting without the participation of
the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen was held in Sochi, and therefore, we
can say that Moscow has decided to seize the initiative and thus make
it clear to its Western partners that it has much more opportunities
to influence the course of events in the region.
Currently, given the crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations and
the sanctions imposed by the West,Russia is experiencing hard
times. However, even in such a situation, the Kremlin could not
afford to remain aside from the processes in our region, which it
considers a traditional sphere of own interests. In other words,
Moscow once again, as it was exactly six years ago, during the
Georgian-South Ossetian war in August 2008, wished to show who’s
the boss, inviting the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to a
dialogue. As Vladimir Putin stated, Russia respects the international
formats of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution, but it plans
to use the special character of bilateral relations with Armeniaand
Azerbaijan to resolve the situation.
Surely, it was impossible to seriously count on a diplomatic
breakthrough in Sochi, and experts were unanimous in their opinion
that no progress in the meeting could be expected. Surely, it was
realized also by the participants themselves. The most that could
be hoped for was certain reduction of tension in the conflict zone
and resumption of the negotiation process. It was important for the
President of Russia to prevent further transition of the situation
into a full-scale war and to get his two Transcaucasian colleagues’
guarantees of non-resumption of hostilities and assurances of
commitment to the peaceful settlement of the conflict. And I must say
that the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijanspoke in favor of the
soonest resolution of the conflict, expressing hope for Russia’s help.
In fact, the similarity of the positions of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani parties does not end with this. At the meeting, Aliyev
actually criticized the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen, noting that
“they try to reconcile the parties, but they are not quite successful
in this”. He expressed hope that with the assistance of Russia,
“in the nearest future, we will achieve a peaceful resolution through
negotiations, which will meet the norms and principles of international
law and the justice”. We believe there is no need to explain what
justice in Azerbaijani is. However, noteworthy is the fact that,
in accordance with the Azerbaijani false conception, Aliyev referred
to… four UN Security Council resolutions as a legal basis for the
settlement of the conflict, which, according to him, call for the
immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from the
territory of Azerbaijan.
In turn, Serzh Sargsyan, presenting the position of the Armenian party,
stressed that “in fact, the conflict can be resolved and should be
resolved on a compromise basis and on the principles offered by the
Minsk Group Co-Chairs”. Bu, he wasn’t limited with this. The Armenian
President gave a decisive rebuff to Aliyev, pointing to the failure
of the permanent reference of the Azerbaijani party to the four UN
resolutions. “I have a question for Mr. Aliyev: which provision of
these resolutions hasAzerbaijan fulfilled? It was only Armenia that
fulfilled the provisions of the resolutions, using its influence to
cease the hostilities”, said Serzh Sargsyan. Here is a remarkable
detail: Vladimir Putin, albeit indirectly, but also confirmed that the
threat to peace in the region was coming from Azerbaijan. The Russian
President noted that he was pleased to state that the Azerbaijani
President also (!!!) drew the attention to the necessity of solving
the issue peacefully, “This is really the most important thing”.
It is obvious that in addition to the forecasts about the prospects
of development of the political processes in the region after the
Sochi Summit, the most important question that occupies the minds
of political scientists and ordinary people in the region is: can
the situation be stabilized? Many experts agree that the situation
will hardly grow into a war, but effective measures are needed to
prevent further bloody incidents. Much will depend on how sincere
Aliyev was, speaking to Putin about the need for a peaceful solution
to the issue. Most likely, as it has repeatedly happened, Aliyev’s
peaceful assurances will be of declarative and temporary character,
and the President of Azerbaijan will once again confirm his reputation
as an unscrupulous, irresponsible, and unreliable politician.
Leonid MARTIROSSIAN
Editor-in-Chief of Azat Artsakh newspaper
From: Baghdasarian
http://artsakhtert.com/eng/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1549:-can-aliyevs-pacifism-be-trusted&catid=3:all&Itemid=4