EXPERTS: AZERBAIJAN CAN ENSURE ITS FULL ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
Regnum, Russia
Nov 15 2006
Azerbaijan can ensure its full energy independence. That’s what most of
the experts said during the roundtable on Azerbaijan’s energy security
held in Baku last week. A REGNUM correspondent reports that the event,
organized with the support of the Azerbaijani Office of the Russian
Development Foundation (AORDF) "Caucasian Democracy Institute," was
attended by independent experts from Russia Ilya Zaslavsky, Alexander
Karavayev, Georgy Nozadze, Azerbaijani MPs Agabek Askerov, Siyavush
Novruzov, Mubariz Gurbanly, Fazil Gazanfaroglu, political experts
Rasim Musabekov, Zardusht Alizade, Mubariz Ahmedoglu, Arif Yunusov,
Ilgar Mamedov, Leyla Aliyeva, experts Ilham Shabanov, Allay Ahmedov,
historian Valida Mustafayeva.
The event was opened by the head of the AORDF Rauf Gasanov.
The participants stressed that Azerbaijan’s energy potential is
steadily growing, and, already today, the country can be regarded as
a self-sufficient energy producer and an authoritative fuel exporter
in the region.
The Russian experts focused on the political, economic, ecological,
social and technical aspects of the gas supplies in Azerbaijan and
Russia. Alexander Karavayev approached energy security problems
geo-politically. He said that Azerbaijan has resolved these problems
due to own resources and complementary policy and, especially, due
to the launch of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) and the
gas pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum (BTE). Today, the Azerbaijani gas
consumers – unlike those in Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and
Armenia – are almost independent from Russia’s gas policy. Karavayev
noted that not only the CIS countries but also many people in
Russia are concerned that, sometimes, Gazprom rises its gas tariffs
quite unreasonably. Karavayev wonders if Russia’s gas tariffs are
economically conditioned – why exactly $110 or $130 and not $50 or,
say, $200?
In fact, the "gas stick" has not so far helped Russia to attain any
of its political goals, except for merely economic profit. On the
contrary, the last rise in the Russian gas tariff has pushed Ukraine,
Georgia and Moldova to drift even farther to the west and has caused
strong displeasure in Armenia, who has already found alternative
sources of gas. Karavayev believes that Moscow’s new, better-balanced
tariff policy is just a matter of time. Returning to Azerbaijan’s
energy security, Karavayev said that Azerbaijan effectively employs
its equidistant situation from all significant blocs in the CIS
territory and, at the same time, declares western orientation. All the
subjects of inter-action in the post-Soviet area, including Russia,
are influenced by the US policy. And the internal stability of each
of them strongly depends on their ability to successfully maneuver
under this influence. Azerbaijan also considers this influence but
is realistic about its limits.
Similar models of state administration have brought Russia and
Azerbaijan closer to each other. Russian-Azerbaijani relations have
significantly improved since Jan 2001, when the Russian President paid
a visit to Baku. At the same time, unlike Russia’s other CIS partners,
Azerbaijan is not a member to any structural organizations.
After returning into the CIS (one of the first decisions of Heydar
Aliyev), the Azerbaijani authorities stayed neutral towards other
integration structures (CES, EurAsEC). Azerbaijan cannot be a member
to the CSTO because of Armenia’s membership therein. Though involved
in some alternative unions, Azerbaijan is not very active there. The
role of GUAM’s energy locomotive is possible but hardly real for
Azerbaijan as its key export projects are aimed at markets outside
GUAM. The active attempts of the Ukrainian diplomacy to add Azerbaijani
oil to the Russian supplies have proved to be just illusions.
Exactly in the same way the Saakashvili administration has failed to
change the parameters of the Baku-Erzerum contract. Georgia’s quota
in the project has been left unchanged – 5% of potential transit.
Karavayev noted that during the 1st Summit (Dec 1 2005) of the new
promising anti-Russian bloc "Commonwealth of Democratic Choice"
(CDC), Azerbaijan was represented only on a FM level. Obviously,
small as it is, Azerbaijan is quite successfully balancing between
different vectors. In conclusion, Karavayev stressed that, unlike
Russia, Azerbaijan has decided to invest the money of its Oil Fund
in the economy and the social sector. According to the presidential
decree "On the Long-Term Strategy for Oil and Gas Income Management,"
the Azerbaijani Government allocates the money for the construction
and restoration of roads, schools and hospitals, the purchase of
energy equipment and other crucial projects. In Russia they believe –
without much reason – that such a policy may lead to high inflation.
Expert Ilya Zaslavsky noted that there are mutually exclusive views of
the export appeal of the Azerbaijani fuel. He reminded the audience
that during his last visit to Baku the Romanian President said:
"I think that Azerbaijan can be highly competitive on the European
markets." On the other hand, Turkey is slow to buy the Azerbaijani
gas. Zaslavsky gave some statistics: the total length of the BTE from
Azerbaijan till the Georgian-Turkish border is 690 km (442 km via
Azerbaijan and 248 via Georgia). The length of the Turkish "corridor"
is 280 km. Experts say that Azerbaijan needs as much as 100mln c m
of gas to fill the whole pipe. Even though the Azerbaijani gas has
already reached Erzerum, Turkey is falling behind in laying its section
of the pipe and will finish it no earlier than by the end of this year.
Presently, in order to fill the BTE Azerbaijan uses the gas extracted
from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli deposit by AIOC and BP. In the third
quarter of 2006 Azerbaijan will start injecting gas from the Shah
Deniz deposit, where a consortium of western companies and their
partners, particularly, Lukoil, have built a unique deep-water
platform – a project costing a total of $1.3bln. The initial
resources of Shah Deniz are estimated at 178bln c m of gas and
34mln tons of gas condensate, while the total ones – at 1trl c m, of
which 600bln c m are recoverable resources. This is the biggest gas
condensate deposit in Azerbaijan. The BTE can transfer up to 30bln
c m a year. Initially, it will export 2.2bln c m a year and later
8.5bln-9bln c m a year. The full rate extraction will be started at
the second stage – in 2010-2012.
Zaslavsky pointed out that even though the world gas prices have
been steadily growing in the last decades, they may slump one day and
Azerbaijan may prove to be quite unprepared for that, just as it is
unprepared today to be fully independent from Russia in energy. The
Azerbaijani authorities will hardly be able to ensure their full energy
independence in the near future and will remain seriously dependent on
Russia and its behavior on the international fuel markets for quite a
long time. Consequently, Azerbaijan will have to consider this factor
in its foreign policy.
Rasim Musabekov disagreed with Zaslavsky. He thinks that the
influence of the political factor on the fuel price policy is
decreasing. Healthy market relations make the supplier and the consumer
equally responsible. The energy security of suppliers and consumers is
inter-dependent and inter-related and cannot be considered irrespective
of reality.
On the other hand, for each energy market participant reality is
different and, consequently, different is the degree of security. For
example, even though Azerbaijan is much more secure in energy than
Georgia and Armenia are, it buys from Russia twice as much gas as they
do. Azerbaijan may safely stop buying Russian gas as it has its own
energy sources and a ramified pipeline network (Baku-Novorossiysk,
Baku-Supsa and Iranian branch to Nakhichevan).
This all will allow Azerbaijan to become self-sufficient already
next year.
Musabekov said that next year Georgia and Turkey will substantially
raise their energy security. Today, Turkey is in a favorable situation:
it has three gas pipes from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan may sell its gas for just $120-130, which may influence
the prices of the Russian and Iranian gas. Besides, Turkey has good
capacities for gas transit to Europe. As regards Azerbaijan, the only
threat to its energy security is a possible pipeline damage caused
by acts of sabotage.
Ilgar Mamedov agreed that Azerbaijan is sufficiently secure in terms
of energy. He noted that the country is very much interested in the
sharp rise in the gas prices. The last rise by Russia has strongly
aggravated its relations with Armenia. The Armenian mass media and
public appeared with lots of anti-Russian statements and pro-western
slogans. As a result, Armenia has turned its face towards Iran. One
more rise will completely spoil Armenian-Russian relations, and
Armenia will start searching for ways-out of this situation, while
Azerbaijan will be able to turn it into own advantage "by returning
its occupied territories and, certainly, Nagorno Karabakh."
The Russian experts pointed to Russia’s gas problem. Karavayev said
that the further rise in the Russian gas prices will not give Russia
any dividends. Each consumer country has the limit beyond which it
will refuse to buy gas. The present tariff policy, particularly,
the mechanism preventing Kazakhstan from supplying gas via Russia to
Europe, is incorrect and unpromising. Gazprom’s monopoly may create
numerous problems in Russia. "All we know about our real gas reserves
is what Gazprom tells us. Its further price policy is also a closed
book to us," Karavayev said.
Zaslavsky pointed out that some Azerbaijan’s regions are short of gas,
while the Azerbaijani authorities are actively exporting gas abroad. He
noted that the laying of pipelines is a very expensive business, today,
but small territory allows Azerbaijan to do it with much less expenses.
Allay Ahmedov noted that Azerbaijan’s energy security may be annulled
by military factors – such as a new Karabakh war or possible US
campaign against Iran.
Ilham Shabanov reminded the audience that the price of the gas Turkey
receives from Russia is $262 and from Iran – $250, while Azerbaijan
is ready to sell its gas to Turkey for only $120. So, it is very
strange that Turkey is delaying the building of its section of the
BTE and has refused to buy Azerbaijani gas in the coming half-year.
The possible reason might be Russia’s offer to undertake part of
Turkey’s expenses and technical efforts to lay gas pipelines to Italy
and Israel – something that will make Turkey one of the biggest energy
knots in the region. One more factor is that a Russian-Turkish JV is
planning to build a huge gas storage in southern Turkey near Lake Tuz
for ensuring the stability of Russian gas supplies to Europe from the
south. This project is of strategic importance for Russia and fully
serves the interests of Turkey.
Shabanov noted that by the end of this year Azerbaijan will import
4.5bln c m of gas from Russia. However, it will extract more than that
in 2007. "So, why should we buy Russian gas?" The answer is in the
politics: Azerbaijan buys Russian gas because it wants to preserve
friendly relations with that country. Concerning the domestic gas
supply in Azerbaijan, Shabanov said that, in the Soviet times, 83%
of the country had gas, which was the highest index in Europe. After
the USSR collapse, this figure slumped, and only recently the AzeriGaz
managed to raise it to 45%-46%.
Mubariz Ahmedoglu welcomed the idea of roundtable and stressed that
it is very important to discuss the problem of unequal electricity
exchange between Russia and Azerbaijan, particularly, the fact
that Russia overprices its electricity for Azerbaijan. "We sell our
electricity to the Russians for 2 US cents per 1 KWh, but buy it from
them for 4 US cents," Ahmedoglu said. Still, he believes that the
sides will equalize the situation. He noted that, today, even the
military circles in Russia see that they can no longer use pressure
and need to establish and develop mutually beneficial cooperation
with their neighbors. Azerbaijan’s last years’ efforts to ensure its
energy security have helped Turkey to become a big transit player. As
regards Armenia, it is in quite a difficult situation: Iran will not
close its eyes to the fact that it is going to sell to Russia the
gas pipeline built by Iranian specialists for Iranian money.
Zardusht Alizade noted that new times dictate new relations. In the
last 15 years Russia has seen that its "special" relations with the
post-Soviet republics lead to huge economic losses and affect the
living conditions of its own citizens. Almost all Russia has done
recently shows that that country is becoming more pragmatic and is
seeking to have normal market relations with its neighbors, like
everybody in the world has.
Arif Yunusov said that every time he is surprised to hear people
talking about the economic profit of one or another project as,
in all of them, political interests are prevalent and decisive. He
noted that it would be much cheaper for Azerbaijan to lay its oil
and gas pipelines to Turkey not via Georgia but via Iran. However,
this might cause some problems in the future and Washington’s strong
displeasure at present. As regards Russia, Yunusov thinks that Moscow
has no clear energy policy. Moscow is in euphoria over the last years’
rise in the world fuel prices. If one can understand Russia when
it punishes Ukraine, it is hard to understand it in the story with
Georgia as its actions hit Armenia too. Russia’s policy on Baku is
also contradictory. "I always say that Russia is doing its best to
be disliked in Azerbaijan but is not succeeding as the US is doing it
much better," Yunusov said with irony. He agreed with the other experts
that Azerbaijan is self-sufficient and secure in terms of energy.
Georgy Nozadze is concerned for Russia and Azerbaijan as their
policies heavily rely on fuel prices. Even though in the last 100
years fuel prices have been growing, one should not forget that
once they slumped by as much as 80%. True, they rose again in some
3 years, but Russia and Azerbaijan will hardly survive such a long
period. Even stabilization fund will not help them. That’s why they
need a detailed state program on how to effectively use the revenues
they get from the rising oil prices. Another big threat is a global
ecological disaster in the Caspian Sea. Here Baku is better protected
than Moscow as it has involved many private foreign companies in its
fuel projects while Moscow has not. Nozadze noted that expertise and
healthy competition substantially reduce risks.
During the discussion Rasim Musabekov and Ilgar Mamedov pointed
out that Georgia’s energy security is exclusively important for
Azerbaijan. They stressed that if Russia stops supplying gas to
Georgia, Azerbaijan will do it. Zaslavsky and Gasanov summed up
the results of the roundtable. They urged the experts to meet again
in order to discuss the numerous problems of the energy and other
important spheres of Azerbaijan and Russia.
From: Baghdasarian