Beyond Georgia: The Ripple Effects of Russia’s Attack

The New Republic
Beyond Georgia: The Ripple Effects of Russia’s Attack
August 11, 2008

As the world watches Russian troops gather on its border with Georgia, we
asked Central Asia expert Martha Brill Olcott to look at the broader
implications of the recent fighting:
Senators McCain and Obama are both trying to demonstrate their leadership
capacities in their strong statements on the conflict between Russia and
Georgia. But the man who takes power as president of the United States in
January will have to confront circumstances quite unlike those upon which he
is now commenting on. The current conflict in the Georgia shows just how
difficult it is for the U.S. to maintain a strategic position in the
Caspian, as well as how tough a competitor Russia is.
There is no easily solution to the conflict. It is virtually a given that
Russia will not be pushed from its current position–that of military
protector in the break-away regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia–through
diplomatic pressure. None of the NATO nations will send in troops to support
the Saakashvili government because of the risk of a direct NATO-Russian
military engagement. NATO countries may also be cautious about how much
rebuilding of the Georgian military they are willing to do if they fear
Georgia will use them for offensive rather than defensive purposes. Economic
sanctions will create more of a hardship for European countries dependent
upon Russia’s gas than they would for Russia. And international criticism of
Moscow from the Security Council podium in New York will also have little
effect, save to demonstrate anew the divisions within and ineffectual nature
of the United Nations.
So Russia will come out of its military actions in South Ossetia much
stronger than it went into them, both at home and in many of the neighboring
states. The Russian public has long sought a Russian government that
supports its citizens–who include much of the population of both South
Ossetia and Abkhazia. Most in Russia (and that would include those in the
Kremlin) understood the Soviet-era assignment of these "autonomous"
territories to Georgia as merely a temporary measure.
Russia’s aggressive behavior toward these provinces will have implications
elsewhere in the Caspian as well. The Azerbaijani’s in particular, may want
to rethink their strategic priorities, as they seek to hold onto the
Karabakh province, whose Armenian population has been seeking independence
since the late ’80s. The Azerbaijanis first threw their lot in with the West
at a time when Moscow, under Yeltsin, was much weaker. Russia’s attack this
week now means that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, up for reelection in
October, will need to seek guarantees from Moscow that it will not now
support Armenia’s claims in Karabakh or in Azerbaijan’s other territories
that are internationally recognized as occupied. Recapturing all of these
lands is Azerbaijan’s ultimate aim, and who knows what Aliyev might be
willing to offer Moscow to grant him this.
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan are also going to have to calculate what this
means for their own strategies. Both have been juggling competing offers for
new oil pipelines–one from Western countries, who are calling for a
Trans-Caspian (undersea) gas pipeline to export gas through Azerbaijan,
Georgia, and on to Turkey, and one from Russia, who is offering higher gas
prices and partial financing of repairs and expansion of capacity on the
Soviet-era routes to Europe, all of which go through Russian territory.
Developments in Georgia could make the newer Azeri and Georgian routes seem
more risky. Kazakhstan too has been a major foreign investor in Georgia in
recent years, and if the Saakashvili regime is ousted, Kazakhstan will want
to work closely with any successor regime, presumably more pro-Russian, to
make sure that the Kazakh investments (largely in the energy sector) are
secure.
So while current attention is focused on Tbilisi, Obama and McCain should be
beefing up their knowledge of the broader region, as this conflict is sure
to have ripple effects far beyond the Georgia-Russia border.
Martha Brill Olcott is a senior associate with the Russian & Eurasian
Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington,
D.C.
From: Baghdasarian

Evacuated Croatian: We Are OK, We Are at Border

Javno.hr, Croatia
Aug 10 2008

Evacuated Croatian: We Are OK, We Are at Border

We are at the border now and I think we will be here for a while until
the papers are sorted out, one of the four evacuated Croatians said.

– We are just at the Armenian border. I suppose we will be here for
some time because of the paperwork, which takes time. But we are all
alright and we are not scared ` said Lukrecija Kireta, one of the four
Croatians who were on s study trip to Georgia when the war with Russia
began.

Via embassies, the evacuation of European Commission interns began in
Georgia at 4 pm local time. The interns were on a study trip through
Georgia. The group included for Croatians ` Lukrecija Kireta, Drago
Mezga, Oliver Anderlin and Stjepan Bukovcak.

Evacuation with help of Italy and European Commission

Lukrecija said she was in Georgia for a while together with other
interns. It was the European Commission that was the first to start
with the evacuations.

– Currently we are being evacuated by the Italian Embassy and the
European Commission. We were in contact with them the entire time. Of
course, with the help of the Croatian Foreign Ministry that sorted out
our visas for Armenia, since, as citizens of Croatia, we need visas to
enter the country ` Kireta said.

In a brief telephone conversation, she said she expected to be in
Brussels, where she has lived for the past five months, as early as
tomorrow.

– Drago Mezga, Oliver Anderlin and Stjepan Bukovcak will travel to
Italy ` she said.
From: Baghdasarian

Anti-Armenian Or For The Preservation The Armenians?

ANTI-ARMENIAN OR FOR THE PRESERVATION THE ARMENIANS?

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
Published on Aug 09, 2008
Armenia

Recently, the representatives of our country have started raising
the issue of the Armenian-Turkish border being close, considering it
a manifestation of an anti-Armenian policy, an incomprehensible and
scandalous fact.

While it seems to us that by doing this Turkey is conducting a policy
aimed at the preservation of the Armenians.

How come? Because, by demonstrating a fundamental consistency, the
Turks do not allow and even forbid us to forget who we are. We are
an enemy.

Even if all of us become ultimately stupid – something which many
people have already managed to do, and begin considering that the Turks
are not our enemy, the Turks themselves will never let us forget that
we are their enemy.

Because, we have the courage to declare that half of their country
is, as a matter of fact, our homeland. Because we label the deeds
of their ancestors as an atrocity and genocide, and what’s more,
demand that others call them likewise. And so on and so forth.

In this respect, it is noteworthy that the native authorities do
not set any precondition for having friendly relations with the
Turks. While the Turks, who are fundamental and consistent in his
attitude, do. They will be very pleased to take us into account and
establish friendly ties with us should we waive our vain demands and
cede Karabakh to Azerbaijan.

Thereafter, they will trade with us and organize tours to
Ararat. Otherwise, we will be the enemies of the Turks, i.e. Armenians.

It turns out that it is the Turks that make us preserve our national
identity and remain Armenians. If, instead of being so fundamental and
consistent, they were as insidious and cunning as we sometimes imagine
them to be, they would have lessened their firmness and opened the
border. The consequences in that case might have been unpredictable.

Judging by the kind of music and manner of speech preferred by a
definite number of citizens of the Republic of Armenia, seeing their
appearance and the form of their ears, their posture and behavior, it
is possible to approximately imagine how many thousands of Armenians
would rush to their … historical homeland. Of course, not for
climbing the Mount Ararat, but rather, for human purposes so to say.

And it’s quite possible that having disgraced ourselves on the
international arena or in the eyes of our nation, we will have to
state that the Armenians emigrate from an abnormal country like
Armenia and settle in a normal country like Turkey.

And thousands of Turks will visit Armenia, with lots of kind
wishes. They will set up some business and buy a house. And in 50
years’ time, that would put an end both to the Armenian statehood
and the Armenian issue.

Those Turks do not have brains at all. But they are fundamental in
their attitude. And it is not absolutely bad for the time being.

Having an open border is a good thing, dear compatriots. In our
society, we ourselves have erased and continue erasing so many
borders that is even good that the Turks still mark a borderline
between themselves and us.
From: Baghdasarian

Adaa Announced Michael Peretzian To Receive The Armenian Star Award

ADAA ANNOUNCED MICHAEL PERETZIAN TO RECEIVE THE ARMENIAN STAR AWARD

Noyan Tapan

Au g 8, 2008

GLENDALE, AUGUST 8, ARMENIANS TODAY – NOYAN TAPAN. The Armenian
Dramatic Arts Alliance is pleased to announce that this year’s
receipient of the Armenian Star Award will be Michael Peretzian,
theatre director, who has recently received public acclaim as director
of the play RED DOG HOWLS. The award will be handed out at the ADAA
Annual Celebrity Gala to be held on August 23, 2008 at the Stars
Palace Theater in Glendale, CA.
From: Baghdasarian

http://www.nt.am/news.php?shownews=116330

Iran’s Soryan Favorite For Gold

IRAN’S SORYAN FAVORITE FOR GOLD
By Simon Evans

Reuters
Aug 8 2008
UK

BEIJING (Reuters) Iran’s Hamid Soryan, three-times world champion
in the bantamweight 55kg Greco-Roman category, goes into battle on
Tuesday looking in a strong position to win his country’s sixth gold
medal in wrestling.

Soryan took the world and Asian titles last year, but will face some
strong competition from Eun-chol Park of South Korea, who has won two
world silver medals and a world bronze medal in the last three years.

Cuba’s Yagniel Hernandez won the 2007 Pan American Games and 2008
Pan American Championships in this weight and will fancy his chances
along with 22-year-old American Spenser Mango.

In the featherweight, 60kg category, Georgia’s David Bedinadze looks
a strong contender having won the world title in 2007 and finishing
second this year.

Two-time Olympic gold medalist Armen Nazarian of Bulgaria remains,
despite being 34, a serious contender.

He won gold in the 48-52kg category competing for Armenia in Atlanta
in 1996 and then again four years later for Bulgaria in the 54-58kg
and also claimed a bronze in that weight in Athens.
From: Baghdasarian

Russian Diners Say "Nyet" To Soviet Service

RUSSIAN DINERS SAY "NYET" TO SOVIET SERVICE
By James Kilner

Reuters
Aug 5 2008
UK

MOSCOW (Reuters) – A frothy cappuccino or fresh mozzarella salad is
no longer enough. Russia’s growing middle classes now want service
with a smile.

With much of Europe and North America saturated, the newly affluent
among Russia’s 143 million people are an attractive target for Western
coffee shop chains eager for growth, and Starbucks and Costa Coffee
are among brands now found in Moscow.

But where once any alternative to Soviet-style fried meats and
dill-laced boiled vegetables was a thrill, increased competition now
means superior service is important to attract and retain customers.

This is a challenge, says Ian Zilberkweit, an American part-owner
of the Russian franchise for the Belgian coffee shop chain Le Pain
Quotidien.

He and his Armenian-American business partner have drawn up bonus
schemes and share plans to persuade staff to shake off Soviet habits
and instil loyalty in a typically casual sector.

"The Soviet system meant there was no system for treating people
nicely," said Zilberkweit, who has just opened his fifth store. "It
was all about shifting products."

Cash from energy and commodity exports has boosted Russia’s economy
since a crisis in 1998. The World Bank estimates real incomes rose
by 80 percent between 1998 and 2007 to nearly $8,000 per person —
roughly level with Mexico and Lithuania.

Data from Moscow-based Business Analytica shows the number of bars,
cafes and restaurants in Moscow rose by a third between 2004 and
2007 to 6,600, with the fastest growth at the mid-priced level. Big
chains now own around a third of the outlets in Moscow, double the
proportion in 2004.

Starbucks Corp., which is closing shops in North America, opened its
first branch in Moscow in 2007 with a Russian partner M. H. Alshaya
Company W.L.L and now has five, and Costa Coffee, owned by British
brewer Whitbread opened in March through a joint venture with Russia’s
Rosinter.

Starbucks declined to give details of its plans but Costa aims to
open at least 200 cafes in Russia, a market analysts described as a
major growth area.

"All companies are focusing on the Russian market in all leisure
sectors, not just coffee. It’s a country that Costa has to be in,"
said UBS analyst Stamatis Draziotis.

CROISSANTS, SOUP, FISH PIE

Le Pain Quotidien’s Zilberkweit said the potential in Russia was just
too great to miss out on.

"In Europe, real incomes are not going up due to rising prices, but
in Russia it’s different," he said, wearing a grey London Business
School sailing club shirt.

"Because the domestic economy is growing like crazy, incomes are
still going up like crazy."

By the end of this year, Le Pain Quotidien aims for eight outlets
in Moscow, rising to 50 within four years. Sales now stand at about
$5 million but are targeted to rise to $20 million by 2009, said
Zilberkweit.

A former investment banker at HSBC bank, he said competing in Russia’s
lucrative dining market is further complicated for foreign firms
because spending patterns and business costs differ from those in
the West.

Le Pain Quotidien projects itself as part-bakery, part-cafe,
part-restaurant.

The interiors are wooden, a counter sells freshly baked bread and
pastries — supplied by a bakery which Zilberkweit part-owns — and
the menus are based mainly around soups, salads and light main meals.

But Russian customers spend their money differently from people in
other countries.

About 50 percent of Le Pain Quotidien’s sales are from food in Russia
compared with 35 percent in Britain, for example. Rent is by far the
biggest expense in Russia while staff salaries are the main expense
in Europe.

Its prices in Russia are similar to the rest of Europe — $3 for a
croissant, $7 for a bowl of soup and $17 for a fish pie — and diners
usually add on a tip of around 10 percent.

SMILE FOR THE CAMERA

With prices high and rising, Russian customers are no longer willing
to stomach slow, erratic and surly Soviet service.

"If I see a new place which I want to go into, I do worry what the
service will be like," said Natalya Miloserdova, 27, puffing on a
cigarette outside the tour agency where she works.

"You pick a place to eat where you know the service will be good."

Zilberkweit said service has been a neglected aspect of retail in
Russia as most staff grew up without experiencing any.

"We were unbelievably frustrated two years ago because we would get
these people in and we would just want them to smile and they wouldn’t
even know why," he said.

Smiling staff can make the difference in Russia’s increasingly crowded
cafe sector.

"The customer, five years ago, in Russia would have been only too
happy if within five minutes’ walk there was a place to have a coffee
latte," he said. "Now, he has 10 choices and demands much more."

Another Soviet hangover Zilberkweit has had to confront was a drop
in an employee’s work ethic after promotion.

"In Russia, the moment you give somebody a title they stop working,"
he said. "Now, we give people more money and more responsibility but
not a new title."

The security cameras on the ceiling also play a role. "We have to do
this for security reasons," he said, adding that pictures are beamed
to a control room in every restaurant.

"But the main reason is to watch the staff."
From: Baghdasarian

Marie Yovanovitch New U.S. Ambassador To Armenia

MARIE YOVANOVITCH NEW U.S. AMBASSADOR TO ARMENIA

Noyan Tapan

Au g 4, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 4, NOYAN TAPAN. At the end of last week the
U.S. Senate approved the candidacy of Marie Yovanovitch for the
post of U.S. ambassador to Armenia, Radio Liberty reported, citing
Associated Press. The Bush administration nominated M. Yovanovitch
for this post in March.

A hearing to confirm her candidacy was held at the U.S. Senate Foreign
Relations Committee on June 19. In response to questions on the 1915
events asked by a number of senators, including Democratic presidential
candidate Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Robert Menendez, M. Yovanovitch
avoided using the word "Armenian Genocide". Nevertherless, last week
the Committee confirmed her candidacy.

The duties of U.S. ambassador to Armenia were carried out by charges
d’affaires since the U.S. Ambassador John Evans was recalled in
2006. In the opinion of Armenian Americans and a number of American
political figures, J. Evans was relieved of his post for publicly
recognizing the Armenian Genocide.
From: Baghdasarian

http://www.nt.am/news.php?shownews=116245

Boxing: Russia Knocked Out To Lose Last Title

RUSSIA KNOCKED OUT TO LOSE LAST TITLE

Kommersant
Aug 4 2008
Russia

Russia lost the last title in professional boxing yesterday. IBF
bantamweight defending champion Dmitry Kirillov lost to Vic Darchinyan,
the Armenian famous boxer standing for Australia. Darchinyan knocked
out Kirillov in the fifth round to claim the title.

The bout of Dmitry Kirillov in Tacoma, Washington, continued the
losing series of Russia’s boxers in 2008. We had had three belts early
this year, but WBO heavyweight Sultan Ibragimov lost to Ukrainian
Wladimir Klitschko February 23 and WBC king Oleg Maskaev was defeated
by Nigerian Samuel Peter March 8.

In the interval between those two fights, bantamweight Dmitry Kirillov
defended the title in the draw bout vs Cecilio Santos, but only to be
dethroned in half a year by the famous puncher. And the yesterday’s
loss of the Russian wasn’t questionable.

Landing one bone-crunching left hand after another, Darchinyan won
the first round and was better at the second one. He accelerated in
the third round, producing the series of dozen of blows, half of them
reaching the aim. The left-handed challenger was faster than the champ,
always taking the most advantageous position.

The fourth round created an illusion that Kirillov would finally
recover, but it was just a break for Darchinyan. In the fifth round,
the referee recorded the first knockout in Kirillov’s career. At the
same time, he recorded the loss of Russia’s last title in professional
boxing.
From: Baghdasarian

U.S. Will Urge Turkey To Recognize Armenian Genocide Soon

U.S. WILL URGE TURKEY TO RECOGNIZE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE SOON

PanARMENIAN.Net
30.07.2008 17:41 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ "Approval of Ambassador-designate Marie Yovanovitch’s
appointment by U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee culminated an
important milestone toward recognition of the Armenian Genocide by
the U.S. executive branch", ARF Dashnaktsutyun Bureau’s Hay Dat and
Political Affairs Office Director Giro Manoyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net
reporter.

"22 months after Senator Menendez put his hold on Richard Hoagland’s
nomination, through the written responses and clarifications of the
Ambassador designate and the U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary for
Legislative Affairs, the US State Department affirms that: "

A) Over one and a half million Armenians have fallen victim to the
mass killings, ethnic cleansing, and forced deportations conducted
by the Ottoman Empire;

B) The US does not cast any doubt on the veracity, and its goal is to
help preserve the memory, of one of the greatest tragedies of the 20th
century, the "Medz Yeghern," or Great Calamity, as Armenians refer
to it, and that not characterizing it as genocide is exclusively a
policy adopted by the US President;

C) To achieve full reconciliation, Turkey must come to terms with
its past," Mr. Manoyan said.

"I think, the Senate will soon confirm Ms. Yovanovitch’s nomination and
she will arrive in Yerevan to assume her duties. Time and events have
demonstrated that the policy and efforts of the Armenian-American
community in general and specifically of the Armenian National
Committee of America were right and efficient. I am convinced that with
such high level of political influence, Armenian-Americans and their
supporters in the US legislature will soon attain the recognition
of the Armenian Genocide by the US President. It is obvious that
Turkey not only has no reason to be content with the expressed US
current policy, but should be extremely concerned that the day is
near when the United States of America, through its legislature, its
executive branch and its President will call upon Turkey to recognize
the Armenian Genocide," Mr. Manoyan concluded.
From: Baghdasarian

Ashtarak Kat Recognized Dominant Company On Pasteurized And Steriliz

ASHTARAK KAT RECOGNIZED DOMINANT COMPANY ON PASTEURIZED AND STERILIZED MILK MARKET

ARKA
July 30, 2008

YEREVAN, July 30. /ARKA/. On Wednesday, Armenian State Commission
for Protection of Economic Competition recognized Ashtarak Kat the
dominant company on pasteurized and sterilized milk market.

Armine Hakobyan, chief of the commission’s analyses unit, said at the
commission meeting that 34 Armenian companies produced 2.9 million
liters of milk, exported 264,000 liters and sold more than 3.1 million
liters in 2007.

"The major part of the sold milk has been produced by three biggest
dairy companies – Ashtarak Kat (57.03%), Dustr Marianna (9.1%) and
Yeghvard Complex (4.3%)", she said.

Hakobyan also said that Ashtarak Kat occupies a third of the
pasteurized and sterilized milk market. Ashtarak Kat representative
Armen Gevorgyan didn’t oppose the dominance recognition.
From: Baghdasarian