Day.az website, Azerbaijan
Sept 9 2008
Pressured by Washington and Brussels, Turkey has long ago opened its
airspace for humanitarian aid for Armenia.
Apparently, land frontier is on the waiting list now
A Day.az interview with prominent political expert Rasim Musabayov.
[Correspondent] The Armenian-Turkish borders may be opened for
humanitarian aid, and this depends on "gestures of the Armenian side
and the development of the relations". Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper has
reported with reference to diplomatic sources. What could this mean?
What does "humanitarian aid" mean?
Borders opened for humanitarian aid for a long time
[Musabayov] As a matter of fact, pressured by Washington and Brussels,
Ankara has long ago opened its airspace for the humanitarian aid for
Armenia. Apparently, the land frontier is on the waiting list now. The
delivery of goods transported to Armenia as part of the many-millioned
aid sent by the USA and the EU is borne in mind. The matter is that
the use of other routes raises the transport prices highly. US
congressmen have repeatedly suggested deducting this cost from the aid
allocated for Turkey although this did not reach that point. Now by
all appearances, Ankara in the capacity of softening relations with
Yerevan is ready as a sign of goodwill to open borders for similar
cargoes. "Humanitarian aid" for Armenia is not only food and medicine
but also equipment, materials and so on.
[Correspondent] Abdullah Gul is arriving in Baku tomorrow. Further he
will pay a visit to the USA. Will this visit be connected with the
latest trip of the Turkish president to Yerevan, since, as the
president of Turkey said they had discussed the Nagornyy Karabakh
issue in the course of his [6 September] visit to Armenia?
[Musabayov] On part of Baku, this is beyond any doubt. The trustful
and close nature of our relations with Turkey assume not only
informing the Azerbaijani leadership about the content of the
negotiations between Ankara and Armenia but also taking into
consideration of our concerns and interests in the context of the
Karabakh conflict. As for Gul’s visit to Washington, apart from
coordinating his latest initiative with Americans, it is important for
him to establish beforehand contacts with candidates from the
Republican and Democratic parties in the upcoming US November
presidential elections.
Gul promotes Erdogan’s new initiative
[Correspondent] Political experts maintain that Ankara has been
working towards the restoration of its role as a regional power with
which was also connected the visit to Yerevan of the Turkish president
as well as the proposal of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to establish a
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. Do you agree with this?
[Musabayov] As a matter of fact, the role of Turkey in its capacity as
a regional power is recognized, if not by all, then by many, and
firstly, by the European powers and the USA. Another issue in question
is that Ankara often comes forward with foreign policy initiatives,
clearly articulating own interests and a vision of the development of
the region and the world, without satisfying itself with going along
quietly with the policy of the USA with regard to the Near East, Iran
and the South Caucasus.
Nevertheless, the visit of President Gul to Yerevan, the initiative of
Prime Minister Erdogan with regard to the Caucasus Stability and
Security Platform in the South Caucasus are not only the reflection of
the growing ambitions of Turkey. Most likely, we are observing an
attempt of Ankara to initiatively react to rather dangerous challenges
and crisis in the region, because of the Russian interference in
Georgia and the actual annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
For Turkey, the confrontational scenarios of the development of the
situation in the South Caucasus, by turning this region into the
battle field between Russia and the West is fraught with huge risks
and losses. You know that as a single member of NATO with direct
borders with the South Caucasus, Turkey risks to turn into a frontal
state. And exactly for this reason, the main burden of human and
financial losses falls on Turkey. Obviously, such a prospect does not
gladden Ankara and therefore, it is undertaking efforts to start
dialogue with Moscow and the South Caucasus countries to reduce the
degree of tension and to somehow, ease the situation.
Therefore, even if the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform in
the South Caucasus initiated by Erdogan is not realized (this is
likely to be so) and the negotiations with Armenia yield no concrete
results, the process of intensive dialogue at the moment of the crisis
will create absorbing effect and be useful.
Armenia facing tough choices
[Correspondent] Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan at a
meeting with his Turkish counterpart confirmed Armenia’s position
about its readiness to establish relations with Turkey without
preconditions. Could it mean that currently Yerevan is ready to slow
down the recognition of the "genocide of Armenians" and become more
compliant in the issue of Karabakh?
[Musabayov] Well, this is not a brand new position and it does not at
all mean a refusal from the policy of advancing the process of
recognition of "the genocide of Armenians" or flexibility in the
Karabakh issue. In the issue of the "genocide", Yerevan alludes to the
diaspora, and as for the Karabakh conflict, it pins secret hopes that
Ankara, in exchange for the refusal from direct claims on Turkey, will
depart from its principled position of supporting Azerbaijan and even
puts pressure on Baku for the purpose of inclining it to acceptable
for the Armenians compromises. However, although Armenians boast,
their state is far from being enviable.
The events in Georgia have demonstrated Armenia’s extreme
vulnerability which found itself in the transport blockade for the
first time. They began to sell gasoline with coupons in Yerevan. If
this lasted a little bit longer, there would have been interruptions
with food and products. Winter lies ahead. If relations between
Tbilisi and Moscow remain confrontational, then Armenian transit via
Georgia to Russia will have to be forgotten.
Well, this means that there would be no Russian gas, it would be
impossible to deliver fuel elements for the nuclear power
station. Winter lies ahead, moreover, as has already been made public,
the Metsamor nuclear power plant is suspended for a three-month
scheduled preventive repairs. So the Armenian rulers have reasons to
be anxious, moreover, the opposition and wide layers of the public do
not recognize the legitimacy of the ruling regime. The opening of the
Armenian-Turkish borders could become vitally important for Yerevan,
and Ankara has to maximum use the circumstance and avoid making a bad
bargain of the negotiations under way.
Gentle gestures by Turkey towards Armenia possible
[Correspondent] Do you think Ankara would agree to the opening of the
borders with Yerevan despite the unsettled status of the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict for the purpose of implementing own national
interests of Turkey in the region?
[Musabayov] I assume that as a gesture of goodwill, Ankara may open
borders for "humanitarian" goods, permit limited amount of border
trade and mutual visits of citizens. The further will depend on
reaction of Yerevan. The establishment of diplomatic relations does
not mean the recognition of the existing borders by Armenia.
Therefore, it is important for Turkey to have exactly registered
Yerevan’s refusal from the territorial and other claims. In this case,
the level of activity of the diaspora to advance the recognition of
the "genocide" may create only image problems for Turkey but nothing
more. The territorial claims, obstacles to join the European Union and
so on have some strength and sense only in that case when they are
backed by a concrete state, a subject of the international relations.
As for the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations to the
detriment of Azerbaijan and our interests in the issue of the Karabakh
settlement, even if such thoughts occur to someone’s mind, then Gul
and Erdogan are enough experienced and well-versed in politics to risk
strategic alliance with us for the sake of fugacious dividends. The
Turkish public opinion, the military, the opposition would not allow a
cynical bargaining at the expense of the Azerbaijani brothers.
Nevertheless, I would urge the critics of Abdullah Gul to think over
the fact that without adjusting dialogue with Yerevan, without certain
easing of the relations with Armenia, Turkey cannot pretend to a role
of a mediator in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.
Bearing in mind that after Russia’s actions in Georgia, the relations
between the USA and the European Union are tense and the activities of
the Minsk Group have been paralysed, Moscow is demonstrating its
intention to take the process of the Karabakh settlement to own
hands. In order not to remain a third party observer in this process,
Turkey has to look for new opportunities to boost its role in the
capacity of the regional power which we are observing now.
It is difficult to predict whether or not those diplomatic manoeuvres
of Ankara would be productive. I do not rule out that Russia would
wish to see Ankara in a role of extra or second on the South Caucasus
scene on which it sees itself the patron. I am afraid that if Turkey
acts independently, without support of its traditional allies in the
person of the USA and NATO, it would come true.
Russia may step up role in the Karabakh conflict resolution
[Correspondent] Moscow has been recently proactive with regard to
Azerbaijan. Does Russia really intend to bring the process of the
Karabakh settlement under own control?
[Musabayov] To all appearances, this is the case. The latest events
related to Georgia showed that it is impossible to retain deep-rooted
ethno-territorial conflicts in a "frozen" state. If a new
Armenian-Azerbaijani war breaks out, it would be much more dangerous
and large-scaled than the latest hostilities in Georgia. It is unknown
whether or not Turkey would remain indifferent which means in this
case a large-scaled war threatening with unpredictable
consequences. Such a development of the events is fraught with dangers
and undesirable for everyone. The activities of the OSCE Minsk Group
have been practically paralysed due to behaviour of Russia and the
tension in her relations with the USA and the EU.
Under such conditions, Moscow intends to take the process of the
settlement under its control in order, first, to demonstrate the whole
world that it may act not only in a negative way but is also able to
play a constructive and peacemaking role. Second, after the
recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia
has frozen relations with Georgia for a long time. Consequently, the
transit of military cargo not only by land but also with the use of
airspace of Georgia becomes impossible. As a result, the Russian
outpost of Armenia remains isolated. Russia can only open the
communications towards Armenia once there is a progress in the
Karabakh settlement, minimum, after the liberation of the occupied
districts around Nagornyy Karabakh. At the same time, Russia intends
to strengthen its political and economic positions in Azerbaijan
through productive mediation mission and make Baku owing to her.
It is hard to say whether or not the Russian mediation would yield
positive outcome. The whole previous experience makes us to treat it
sceptically.. Russia has no levers to exert pressure on Azerbaijan,
whereas Moscow did not want to pressurize Armenia up until now. There
is a tiny chance that the Kremlin rulers will be able to persuade
[Armenian President] Serzh Sargsyan to agree (with some changes) to
the stage-by-stage plan of the OSCE Minsk Group turned down by [the
former Armenian president, Robert] Kocharyan.
Well, it is fine if this happens and the process of the settlement
would be moved from a dead point. If not, Azerbaijan does not need to
play at giveaway with Moscow and Armenia. Let us wait and follow
events worldwide and the regional geopolitics of the South Caucasus
and expand the area for Baku’s manoeuvres.
From: Baghdasarian