GEORGIAN ARMENIANS MAY BECOME US PARTNERS
Igor Muradyan
Lragir.am News
11:13:03 – 20/09/2011
Igor Muradyan, political scientist, thinks the Russian policy on
Javakhk has failed, and the United States may establish partnership
with Georgian Armenians.
It is becoming quite obvious that the United States is interested
in supporting the interests of Armenians in Georgia. More exactly,
the decision to improve the social situation of the Georgian
Armenians is meant. Certainly, it is possible to explain the policy
of the United States in this direction by its interest to resolve
the Armenian-Georgian issues but the motives of the Americans are
connected with more important issues of geopolitical character and
refer to the problems of regional security.
The Americans realize that Georgia has appeared in a rather vulnerable
state, especially in the result of rapprochement of Russia and Turkey.
It is obvious that Turkey has set to a new and plain policy of
expansion toward Georgia, which is viewed by Ankara as a trampoline
for its presence in the North Caucasus. But what is more important, the
Turks intend to use Georgia as a bridge between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
If earlier Turkey’s policy regarding Georgia was more or less delicate,
the failure of the Turkish policy in the Near East and after the
revelation of the lack of results from the confrontation with the
United States, the Turks are seeking to move toward the regions of
South and North Caucasus. Certainly, this will be directed against
the interests of Russia but it is the U-turn in geopolitics when the
United States, equally with Russia, is interested in restraining the
Turkish expansion because this arrangement of forces and strategic
goals of the powers of the region has been principally corrected.
But Moscow still cherishes illusions regarding the rapprochement of
Russia and Turkey to oppose the United States. This rapprochement of
two leading regional states poses danger not only to Armenia but also
to Georgia, the countries which are viewed are viewed in the doctrine
of neo-Ottomanism as the “forward echelon” of Turkish expansion.
The external political conditions and approaches in the Georgian
political thinking determine constant concessions to Turkey and its
close partner, Azerbaijan. The portion of freedom granted to the
Turkish expansion by the Americans was used up in the late 1990s but
the Georgians have apparently noticed this much later. The Americans
understand that Georgia is unable to counteract to the Turkish
expansion, and the policy of restraint which the United States
consistently pursues toward Turkey needs more active partners in
Georgia, and the Armenians of Georgia could be such. The United States
is especially interested in the social and political activity of the
regions populated with Armenians where Armenians live in tight-knit
communities and are tied to Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora.
The Americans have fulfilled the centennial dream of the Armenians
of Javakhk and laid out the road to Armenia and are addressing
the problems of this province with closer scrutiny. No doubt the
important decisions in the area of the rights of ethnic religious
communities are taken with the consideration of the Americans. At
the same time, the Americans “suddenly” discovered that the Russians
have practically lost their influence in Javakhk and on the Georgian
Armenians in general, which is an important circumstance for the
“self-determination” of the Armenians of Georgia.
Currently the United States makes efforts to implement its plans in the
Black Sea-Caucasian region where it seeks for maximum ousting of Russia
and Turkey. In a situation where a pro-Russian trend is unfolding among
political parties and groups in Georgia which are up for reanimating
relations between Georgia and Russia, along with the political groups,
the ethnic and religious groups may also become U.S. partners in
Georgia. At any rate, the United States cannot ignore this factor.
Now the Russians would like to demonstrate that they still have some
influence on the Georgian Armenians but it looks rather awkward. The
first stage of reanimation of Russian influence on Georgia, including
on the Georgian Armenians ended up in failure. However, this policy
is again activated, and the Russians understand that the Armenian
factor in Georgia may become quite tangible in the political struggle
in the nearest future.
From: Baghdasarian