Dual Aggression Policy against Armenia: How to Avoid It
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 04 January 2015, 11:16
With its behavior Russia is increasingly repelling Armenia from its
area of responsibility. One can easily explain this to anyone but not
the Armenians who want local clashes with the police, not a
revolution.
Russia does not want and cannot afford the role of guarantor of
security of a sovereign country but would like to deprive countries of
their security referring to external threat.
In the southern direction Russia consults only Turkey which has
already managed to become NATO’s rival and is ready for the intrigue
of an “unstable” alliance with Russia.
They have already managed to demilitarize and demoralize the Russian
society, and they do not want to fight or even pretend they are
fighting. Modern Russians can enter into a conflict only with such a
disorganized nation as the Ukrainians. They say everything is fine
with the Ukrainians and the problem is the Ukrainian state. Maybe,
time will show.
As to the South Caucasus, here other allies of the Russians will be
found, and Moscow relies on those countries which have been reduced to
the status of enemy.
Georgia which has been Russia’s enemy for a long time is facing Russia
due to the belated policy of the United States. The incomprehensible
elite that have come to government in Georgia have adopted pacifism as
a foreign policy concept.
Having become “the best partner” for the Russians, Azerbaijan is ready
to fulfill a lot of conditions because it feels it has been turned out
from the Western community. However, the United States need not cut
Azerbaijan from either Russia, or Iran.
The Russians are well-aware that this is temporary and Armenia is not
a friend or a country which is ready to sacrifice its territories for
the sake of Russia’s wellbeing. There is no elite in Armenia which
would hand Karabakh to Azerbaijan and get away with it.
This pisses Russia off which has always seen Karabakh as an
anti-Russian project, as something temporary and a mistake.
Moscow is considering Armenia as an interim sovereignty which will
become part of Russia with Turkey’s help. Such a prospect favors those
enumerable degenerates who have existed in Armenia in all times.
First, however, Armenia must give up on its sovereignty and for this
reason it needs to agree with Turkey and Azerbaijan, bypassing the
United States in issues relating to the Black Sea and the Caucasus.
However, this entire political and operational structure needs a
catalyst otherwise it may not be operational if there is a delay.
One catalyst could be ousting Armenia from the list of countries which
have commitments to Russia, given the immense amounts of supply of
weapons to Azerbaijan by Russia.
Disappointed Armenia will hurry to make friends with NATO and thereby
demonstrate willingness to separate from Russia.
The arms that Russia has piled up in the South Caucasus are a factor
of a new policy, a factor of establishment of new balance in the
region.
A lot may depend on the reaction of the United States and NATO. Russia
will try to agree with its friends in NATO on non-intervention, as
well as the bid is on American isolationism and non-intervention.
Moscow finds that if it took so long to intervene in Ukraine, the
European state, the South Caucasus will take a lot more time and
effort.
In fact, the South Caucasus is a significantly more isolated region
for the United States and NATO than Ukraine, and several agreements
will be needed within the region to address most issues.
Will the price of these agreements be too high, and will the steps
that the United States will have to make be risky? Time and situation
will show.
Russia and its sputniks are facing resistance in the southern
direction, and so far it has not been clear from where the main
offensive should be expected, the Near East or Afghanistan.
Russia is waiting anxiously and nevertheless with some hope because
actions from the South will mean that there are prospects for some
agreement with the United States for which not everything is
unequivocal.
CSTO is not just late; it should not have gathered momentum but
remained dependant on Russia in security issues.
Now Russia is trying to demonstrate what does not and cannot exist –
the existence of some military bloc. First and foremost, it is Russia
that is thwarting CSTO’s opportunities by doing nothing for the
self-sufficiency of this bloc and reducing its member states to the
status of a sputnik.
In the South Caucasus Russia is trying to play a game which it cannot
play with its present status. It seems to Russia that it has an
opportunity to gain new allies by “closing” its relations with its old
and traditional partners.
While discussing the topic of the balance of forces in the region in
the American way, the Russian politicians do not realize that balance
is possible only when the more comprehensible partner is a little
stronger, provided that its strength is fully controllable.
Everything has failed, and nothing is left to Russia but to be a
subject state, in other words, the situation has eventually returned
to the Western community’s plans of efforts and arrangements of many
years. And this is the “sacramental” policy which needed external
threats and risks. They occurred, and the West will never miss its
historical chance.
The Armenian MFA is receiving some not so private dispatches from
institutions called Armenian embassies in the Near East which prompt
that it is necessary to follow Russia’s instructions. Otherwise the
Armenian diplomats may lose their jobs.
Most probably, Armenia will be forced to be more active in the Near
East despite Russia’s interests.
The international isolation has two main factors, exogenous and
endogenous. In this case there are two factors: when Russia’s policy
is aimed at isolating Armenia and when Armenia’s policy is aimed at
self-isolation.
Russia’s agents in Armenia have done a lot for the country to isolate
itself. Everything is ready for the culmination of developments.
There is one thing that is not comprehensible so far. To what extent
has Russia been able to prepare Georgia and especially Azerbaijan for
this action? In any case, there is no doubt that this plan does exist.
How is it possible to avoid this situation which has already set on?
Russia cannot be allowed to be out of these developments, it must be
involved into military actions in the largest possible scale. Russia
has to understand that it will have to participate in the war and
thereby demonstrate its inability to be a partner.
The other activity will be the fast integration with NATO based on the
programs of the alliance. It will be enough to save the sovereignty of
the country and to prevent dual aggression against Armenia.
From: Baghdasarian
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33376#sthash.p7SB78bG.dpuf