NEWS ANALYSIS: GOVERNMENT PROMISES ‘NEW ARMENIA’ AS VOTE NEARS
by Sargis Harutyunyan and Irina Hovhannisyan
EurasiaNet.org
April 17 2012
NY
YEREVAN — “Let us believe in change!” seems like a strange campaign
slogan for a party that has dominated Armenia’s political landscape
since 2007 and whose leader, Serzh Sarkisian, has been president
since 2008.
But the incumbent president is leading his Republican Party (HHK)
into the May 6 legislative elections by promising “a completely new
Armenia” within a few years. And that “new Armenia,” Sarkisian says,
will begin with next month’s voting, which the government vows will
be substantially cleaner and more competitive than past efforts.
The opposition, too, is cautiously optimistic that this time around
the country will be able to produce a legislature that truly reflects
the political spectrum of society. The former president and leader
of the opposition Armenian National Congress, Levon Ter-Petrossian,
says the tide of both domestic and international opinion is pushing
Armenia toward greater democratization.
“Today the international environment has changed,” Ter-Petrossian
says. “The world would no longer put up with the kind of abuses
that were committed in Armenia in the past. The events in Arab
countries…have taught the world a lesson, and I’m sure the world
will be looking at our elections with totally different eyes.”
Ter-Petrossian is urging all Armenians to participate in the May
voting.
Closely Watched
The international community — and particularly the European Union —
is watching the current campaign intently, waiting to see if Armenia
can make a qualitative breakthrough in governance that could signal
the time is ripe for more intense engagement.
“The European Union will be watching very carefully what happens
in the Armenian elections,” says Michael Mann, the spokesman for EU
foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton. “Obviously, depending upon what
happens, it really shows how seriously they are taking reforms in that
country and, of course, as far as the European Union is concerned,
the degree to which a country has reformed itself determines the sort
of relationship we have with that county.”
In addition, Yerevan-based political analyst Richard Giragosian says
the Armenian campaign kicks off a regional election cycle and could
thus become a bellwether.
“It has broader regional significance because it is within a framework
of a broader regional election cycle, in that we have elections coming
in Georgia and Azerbaijan,” Giragosian says. “In this sense, the
performance, the conduct, and the aftermath of the Armenian elections
will hold direct implications for both Georgia and Azerbaijan.”
Unifying Vote?
The current campaign comes very much under the political shadow of
the 2008 presidential election, which opposition candidates claim
fraudulently brought Sarkisian to power and which were followed by
demonstrations and clashes that left 10 people dead.
That crisis also left a deep divide between the government and
the opposition, which asserted it was effectively locked out of
the political process by the ruling party’s monopoly of state
institutions. This divide has contributed to the lack of progress
on key issues, including economic development, political, and legal
reform, and the dispute over Azerbaijan’s Nagorno-Karabakh region —
although Sarkisian has been praised internationally for his efforts
to reach out to his political opponents.
Although the current campaign is an important test for the government,
it has not gone off entirely smoothly so far. Independent candidate
Meruzhan Mkhoyan pulled out of the race after he was abducted from his
home on April 6 and beaten by a group of unknown assailants. Mkhoyan’s
supporters blame the attack on supporters of his HHK rival, Aleksan
Petrosian. Petrosian has denied all involvement.
Earlier this month, a bloc of four major political parties agreed
to form the joint Inter-Party Center for the Public Oversight
of Elections, which is intended to detect and prevent attempts
to illegally influence the voting, including the illegal use of
“administrative resources” by government officials.
The ruling Republican Party has refused to join the initiative and
countered with its own voluntary “code of conduct” for all parties
and candidates. Republican parliament member Davit Harutiunian tells
RFE/RL’s Armenian Service that the proposal is intended to create a
sense of “common responsibility” for the elections.
“The essence of the proposal was that all parties that will take part
in the election process voluntarily take certain responsibilities,”
Haratiunian says. “At some point, we all have to feel a common
responsibility for political processes and for political environment
that the country is in now. I am deeply convinced that everyone
shares the burden of responsibility be it the representatives of the
authorities or the opposition.”
Sore Spots
However, in what seems a sign of the lingering mistrust between the
authorities and the opposition, Armenian National Congress (HAK)
coordinator Levon Zurabian immediately rejected the ruling party’s
plan.
“The main organizer and perpetrator of vote falsifications in Armenia
is Serzh Sarkisian’s regime embodied by the Republican Party,
and naturally such initiatives by that force are unacceptable,”
Zurabian says.
Zurabian charges that, instead of engaging with the opposition, the
ruling Republican Party will continue to muddy the political waters.
“The authorities are very worried about the creation by the four
political forces of a joint coordinating center to fight against
fraud,” Zurabian says. “Now they will come up with one initiative
after another.”
Another issue that has caused concern as the campaigning has gotten
under way is the voting rolls. The government’s official tally shows
2,485,000 eligible voters, some 165,000 more than were on the rolls in
the 2007 elections. In the meantime, the October 2011 census showed
the country’s population at about 2,870,000, a decline of more than
400,000 people over the last decade.
President Sarkisian explains the expanded rolls by saying that many
Armenians living abroad have been added.
“Being absent from the country is not sufficient grounds from
removing people from the voter lists, and this is the reason why the
number of citizens on those lists is growing,” Sarkisian says. “But
being included on the list does necessarily not mean taking part
in elections.”
Editor’s note: RFE/RL correspondent Robert Coalson contributed to
this report from Prague, and RFE/RL correspondent Rikard Jozwiak
contributed from Brussels
From: Baghdasarian