NEW POLITICAL SITUATION IN ARMENIA
Susanna Petrosyan
Vestnik Kavkaza
June 25 2012
Russia
The National Assembly of Armenia adopted the five-year program
of the new government for the period from 2012 to 2017 on June,
21. 75 deputies supported the program, 47 opposed it and the last
one abstained from voting.
The program was supported by the deputies of the ruling coalition
parties – the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and Orinats Erkir
(“Rule of Law”). Among the opposition which voted against the program
there were Prosperous Armenia, Heritage, Dashnaktsutiun and the
Armenian National Congress (ANC).
Among the priorities of the government mentioned in the program there
is the development of export-oriented production, export growth, and
economic growth of 5-7%. The government intends to double the minimum
wage, to increase pensions, to reduce poverty by 8-10 percentage
points, to create 100,000 new jobs, to reduce social polarization,
to create an atmosphere of equal competition and to improve the
business climate. The program also mentions increasing science and
education financing.
According to the Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan, this is the first
time the government says that it will not only be responsible for
providing normal business conditions, but also will participate in
the implementation of the policy in the field of industry: “The main
emphasis will be placed on domestic resources, because Armenia has a
large untapped potential”- the Prime Minister expressed his confidence.
According to the deputy of the faction of the ruling Republican Party
Gagik Minasyan, the program stands out because of the expansion of
the fight against oligopolies which are considered to be the obstacles
to creating a competitive economy.
Tatul Manaseryan, the head of the research center “Alternative”,
Doctor of Economics, believes that the program is more than realistic.
According to him, Armenia has enough resources to implement the
program and it primarily concerns human resources which are the
platform for the development of any economy. The economist believes
that the modest targets indicate a cautious government position: “The
past year has shown us that the government is not afraid of making
unconventional and bold decisions, and it doesn’t want to use quasi
neoliberal economic policy imposed by Western institutions.” According
to Manaseryan, the measures mentioned in the program are the first
steps that provide the transition to national social market economy.
Meanwhile, the representatives of opposition political parties
(factions of Prosperous Armenia, Heritage, the ARF and the ANC) who
voted against the governmental program strongly criticized it for lack
of specificity and realism, and the abundance of generalizations. The
opposition is sure that all the declarations of the program are
superficial and do not contain specific solutions and mechanisms for
achieving the goals.
“The government’s program is more like a number of toasts. Everything
will be expanded, improved, implemented, provided, reviewed, set up;
every one of you lives in Armenia and hears all these wishes for
birthdays and christenings: be healthy, let’s drink success to our
strong country and our culture,” – Alexander Arzoumanian, the deputy
of the faction “Heritage”, noted.
The representative of the PPA Vartan Oskanian believes that the program
presupposes low ratio of tax revenue to GDP, “Today, according the
most conservative estimates, the share of shadow economy is about
30%). Even if we provide the maximum of 0.4%, at best, the ratio of
taxes to GDP will increase by 2% in five years; the average for the
region has already reached 24-25%. This low figure is planned in
some way as an attempt of the government to insure itself against
accusations in the future “- said Oskanian.
According to the draft state budget for 2012 the share of taxes in
GDP is provided at the level of 17.36%.
It should be noted that, along with harsh criticism of the program,
the target of the opposition was also the failure of the previous
program. The MP from PAP Naira Zohrabyan recalled that the government
program for 2008-2012 promised reducing poverty, but over the years
poverty rates increased to 35.8%, the promises of investment are not
fulfilled, etc.
“The government has a right to rely on the confidence of the public
and parliamentarians, only when it had a success in its previous
activities, or at least had no serious mishaps. In this case, the
same team, with the same politics and ideology, claims to continue
what was started and never brought to the end of the deal. How can
it fail the previous program and expect the vote of confidence being
now with a clear conscience? Someone should be responsible for such
failure and for the economic downturn of 14%. Serious changes are
needed for serious progress,. ”
Grant Bagratyan, the ex-Prime Minister and the member of the ANC
also thinks that the current program is the same former program,
which was completely failed by the same government: “I recommend the
government to finally leave alone this figure of 100 thousand. First,
the government declares that 100 thousand new jobs will be created
when, according to official figures, the number of unemployed in
the country is 75,000. Moreover, the program of the President Serzh
Sargsyan also included that figure, but this promise was fulfilled
by 1% only. ”
Bagratyan expressed his doubts about the economic growth figures
mentioned in the program. According to him, the average annual GDP
growth rate in the world is 4%. The GDP of Armenia per capita is three
times lower than the world average, “If our growth rate will be only
two percent more than the world one, we need 57 years in order to reach
the world average.” According to the former prime minister, if it is
possible to leave alone a couple of declarations from the program,
it can be attributed to any other country, whether it be France or
Mozambique: “The government does not understand that Armenia is going
the way of Greece.”
In addition to the poverty rate existing in the economy of the
monopoly system, the target of MPs was also emigration which reached
unprecedented levels. For instance, according to the estimates by some
opposition politicians, a number of people equal to the population of
average village, i. e. about 400 people, leave the country every day,.
“65,000 people have left the country recenlty, and this situation is
generally provoked by the government and the parliamentary elections”,
– Aram Manukyan, the representative of the ANC, said.
The deputies weren’t satisfied with the answer of the Prime Minister
that the government does not hide this fact, but, in contrast, tries
to find solutions the main of which is the creation of 100,000 jobs.
Despite the harsh criticism of the authorities, the program, as usual,
was passed and got the necessary support due to the majority of the
parliament. However, despite the predictable result of the vote in the
parliament on the governmental program, it is difficult not to notice
that the situation in the political life of Armenia is quite new.
Just a couple of months ago, there were only about 20 opposition
deputies in the Armenian parliament, and the most powerful opposition
force, the ANC, was out of the parliamentary process. Many of the
actions and the decisions of the authorities were not limited at all.
Today, as a result of the parliamentary elections of May, 6, the
ruling party which achieved a convincing victory received 50 deputies
beyond of its control. We can assume that the government will now be
under the pressure of such a great number of parliamentarians, and
the discussion of the program of the government is the clear proof
of that. Thus, the power free of any inconveniences for almost 14
years now seems to be doomed to constant discomfort. At the moment
it is difficult to predict what how this discomfort will influence
on the further political development, but one thing is clear – the
internal political situation in Armenia has changed drastically.
The position of the PAP has played an important role in the creation of
the new situation in the country. Before the start of the discussion it
could be assumed that the government would vote against the program
of radical opposition parties such as the ARF and the ANC, as well
as the fraction of Heritage; in contrast, the position of the PAP
about the program was more difficult to predict.
Many Armenian observers, even after the PPA refused to enter the ruling
coalition, continued to assert that the PPA is not the opposition
and we cannot deny the possibility that it may become part of the
government once again. However, the behavior of members of the PAP
faction who sharply criticized the government and its new program,
as well as their vote against the program, have proved just the
opposite. It is more and more obvious that the apparent split in the
power which appeared even before the parliamentary elections of May 6
was the omen of the final split between the ruling Republican Party
and its former partner in the ruling coalition, the PAP. This fact
also contributed to radical changes in the political climate in the
country. .
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