Author: Badalian Vardan

AFFAIRE SAFAROV РR̩ACTIONS DE LA COMMUNAUT̩ INTERNATIONALE
Stephane

armenews.com
mercredi 5 septembre 2012

La presse du jour publie abondamment les réactions de différents pays
et institutions. Les agences de presse reproduisent la déclaration
du porte-parole du Ministère francais des AE, faisant part de la ”
préoccupation ” de la France. ” La France, fortement engagée
comme les autres coprésidents du groupe de Minsk en faveur d’une
solution pacifique au conflit du Haut-Karabagh, considère que cette
décision risque de nuire gravement aux efforts de négociation
et a l’établissement d’un climat de confiance entre les parties
”, lit-on dans cette déclaration. Tout en s’interrogeant sur le
retard de quatre jours de la réaction de Moscou et soulignant la
rapidité des Etats-Unis en l’occurrence le Président Obama et le
Département d’Etat qui ont publié des déclarations le jour même
du transfèrement et de la grâce de Ramil Safarov, les quotidiens
reproduisent la déclaration du porte-parole du MID russe, selon
laquelle le comportement de Budapest et de Bakou empêche tout
désamorcage de la tension dans le Sud Caucase. ” Ces actes des
autorités azerbaïdjanaises et hongroises vont a l’encontre des
efforts déployés au niveau international, en premier lieu dans le
cadre du Groupe de Minsk de l’OSCE ”, a-t-il indiqué.

Est aussi rapportée la déclaration des coprésidents du Groupe de
Minsk, qui relèvent que, les 2 et 3 septembre, ils ont respectivement
rencontré le Ministre des AE d’Arménie et d’Azerbaïdjan,
pour traiter les événements récents dans la région et les
efforts visant a résoudre pacifiquement le conflit du HK. ” Les
coprésidents ont discuté avec les deux ministres de la décision du
31 aoÔt du gouvernement d’Azerbaïdjan de gracier Ramil Safarov. Ils
ont exprimé leur profonde préoccupation et leur regret pour les
dommages que causent cette grâce et toute tentative de glorifier le
crime pour le processus de paix et la confiance entre les parties. Les
coprésidents ont réitéré aux deux Ministres la déclaration de
leurs Présidents a Los Cabos, le 19 juin, selon laquelle il n’existe
pas d’alternative a un règlement pacifique du conflit du HK. Ils
continueront a entretenir des contacts avec les parties pour réduire
les tensions et faire progresser le processus de paix ”.

Les porte-parole de Mme Ashton, Haute Représentante de l’UE pour les
affaires étrangères et la sécurité, ettefan Fule, commissaire
européen a l’Elargissement et a la Politique de voisinage, ont fait
une déclaration conjointe qui fait part de la ” préoccupation ” de
ceux-ci quant a la grâce accordée par le Président azerbaïdjanais a
l’auteur du crime. ” Nous sommes tout particulièrement préoccupés
du possible impact que cette affaire pourrait avoir sur l’ensemble
de la région, et aussi appelons- nous l’Azerbaïdjan et l’Arménie a
faire preuve de retenue sur le terrain comme dans leurs déclarations
publiques en vue d’éviter une escalade de la tension ”, ont-ils dit.

Au travers de son service de presse, l’OTAN a aussi ” condamné
” toute action susceptible d’aggraver la tension régionale. ”
Il est important que les parties s’abstiennent de toute action qui
ne contribue pas a la coopération régionale. L’horrible incident
qui s’était produit il y a 8 ans en Hongrie était un crime. Cet
incident douloureux allait a l’encontre des principes du programme ”
Partenariat pour la paix ” destiné a favoriser une coopération
et une compréhension mutuelle entre les partenaires de l’OTAN ”,
a déclaré un agent du service de presse de l’OTAN.

Enfin, le secrétaire général de l’OTSC, Nikolaï Bordiouzha, a
estimé que la grâce accordée par Bakou a Ramil Safarov contredit le
droit international, et que son accueil en héros aggrave la tension
régionale. ” La décision des autorités azerbaïdjanaises de
gracier l’assassin d’un officier arménien se trouve en contradiction
flagrante avec les normes du droit international et met en doute la
capacité du système interétatique de réprimer la criminalité. La
glorification du criminel ne fera qu’aggraver la tension déja vive
dans la région. Je suis persuadé que la communauté internationale
ne tardera pas a faire une évaluation objective de cet incident ”,
a-t-il conclu.

Armenpress reproduit les propos de Philippe Kaltenbach, Président du
groupe d’amitié France-Arménie du Sénat, qui s’est dit indigné par
la libération de Ramil Safarov. ” La peine prononcée par la justice
hongroise doit être respectée et pleinement appliquée. Une telle
grâce est très préoccupante. L’officier Gurgen Margarian a été
brutalement assassiné en 2004 car il était Arménien. L’auteur d’un
tel crime ne peut aujourd’hui faire l’objet d’une grâce sans envoyer
un message exécrable en direction de celles et ceux qui Ŕuvrent en
faveur de la réconciliation entre l’Arménie et l’Azerbaïdjan ”.

Plusieurs sites d’informations dont tert.am, news.am etc reproduisent
l’article paru dans Le Monde sous le titre ” Meurtrier gracié :
l’Arménie prête a la guerre contre l’Azerbaïdjan ”.

Extrait de la revue de presse de l’Ambassade de France en Arménie
en date du 4 septembre 2012

mercredi 5 septembre 2012, Stéphane ©armenews.com

SECRETAIRE GENERAL DU CONSEIL DE L’EUROPE : ” IL N’EST PAS ACCEPTABLE QU’UN MEURTRIER SOIT TRANSFORME EN HEROS ”
Stephane

armenews.com
mercredi 5 septembre 2012

Dans une declaration publiee le 4 septembre le Secretaire General du
Conseil de l’Europe Thorbjørn Jagland estime qu’un meurtre tel que
celui commis par Ramil Safarov ne saurait etre glorifie.

” Ramil Safarov a ete juge pour meurtre et condamne a la prison a
vie en Hongrie. Le 31 août, il a ete transfere en Azerbaïdjan, où il
a ete immediatement gracie. Je ne veux pas commenter les procedures
judiciaires, mais j’estime inacceptable qu’un individu condamne pour
meurtre soit accueilli en heros. ”

” Je rejette l’idee d’un monde où la morale se delite, où les principes
fondes sur le respect de l’etat de droit et de la dignite humaine
sont nies. Ce n’est pas l’Europe que nous devrions souhaiter pour
les generations futures. Je condamne cette glorification du crime et
appelle instamment chacun d’entre nous a ~uvrer pour le respect de
la vie et de nos valeurs, telles que les defend le Conseil de l’Europe
“, a-t-il declare.

NATO SECRETARY GENERAL TO ARRIVE IN ARMENIA WITH DELAY

Vestnik Kavkaza
Sept 5 2012
Russia

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary General Anders
Fogh Rasmussen will arrive in Armenia with a delay for several hours,
and his scheduled meetings will be held on Thursday, MFA press service
informs, and says that Rasmussen’s visit is pushed back for technical
reasons, News.am reports.

As News.am informed earlier, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh
Rasmussen was to pay a visit to Armenia from Wednesday to Thursday.

The NATO Secretary General will meet with President Serzh Sargsyan,
FM Edward Nalbandian, and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan.

STATEMENT BY THE SPOKESPERSONS OF EU HIGH REPRESENTATIVE CATHERINE ASHTON AND COMMISSIONER TEFAN FLE ON THE RELEASE OF RAMIL SAFAROV

The European Union
Sept 3 2012

The spokespersons of Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the
Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice President of the
Commission and tefan F¼le, European Commissioner for Enlargement and
Neighbourhood Policy, issued the following statement today:

“The High Representative and Commissioner F¼le are concerned by
the news that the President of Azerbaijan has pardoned Azerbaijani
army officer Ramil Safarov, who was convicted and sentenced to life
imprisonment for the murder of Armenian Army officer Gurgen Margaryan
in Budapest in 2004.

Ramil Safarov was transferred from Hungary to Azerbaijan on 31
August on the basis of an Azerbaijani request, in the framework of
the Convention of Strasbourg on the Transfer of Sentenced Persons of
21 March 1983, to serve the rest of his sentence. EU representatives
are in contact with the relevant authorities and will continue to
follow the situation closely.

In the interest of regional stability and on-going efforts towards
reconciliation, the High Representative and Commissioner F¼le
reiterate their call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to exercise restraint,
on the ground as well as in public statements, in order to prevent
an escalation of the situation.

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN ARMENIA PLUMMETS 60% IN H1

Interfax
Sept 3 2012
Russia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Armenia plummeted 59.7% year-on-year
in H1 2012 to $147.5 million, the National Statistics Service said.

Overall foreign investment was down 39.4% to $266.1 million.

Canada was the biggest investor with $82 million, up 5.7-fold
year-on-year. All this investment went into mining.

Russian investment fell 80.5% to $40.3 million, including $38.3
million direct investment, down 80.2%. Of the direct investment,
$23.8 million went into telecommunications and $11.3 million into
energy and gas supply. The rest was invested in housing construction,
real estate, catering, mining, wholesale and research and development.

Investment by Switzerland jumped 4.1-fold to $26.3 million, of which
direct investment 75-fold to $25.3 million. The mining industry
received $25.4 million and retail trade the rest.

Direct investment by France rose 64.8% to $24 million, with $17.1
million in telecoms and the rest in beverage production.

Foreign investment in Armenia rose 6.3% in 2011 to $1.65 billion,
including $813.3 million in FDI, up 15.1%.

RELEASE, PARDON OF ARMENIAN OFFICER’S KILLER HARMFUL FOR KARABAKH TALKS – YEREVAN

Interfax
Sept 3 2012
Russia

Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian discussed the release
and pardon of the Armenian officer’s killer with the intermediaries
of the OSCE Minsk Group settling the Karabakh conflict.

“The only item on the agenda of Nalbandian’s meeting with the
intermediaries was the Azeri-Hungarian deal on the release of Ramil
Safarov, which had a negative effect not only on the negotiations
but also on regional stability and security,” the Armenian Foreign
Ministry told Interfax on Sunday.

It was reported earlier that Azeri army officer Ramil Safarov killed
Armenian army lieutenant Gurgen Margarian with an axe in his sleep
in Budapest on February 19, 2004. Both officers attended an English
language course under NATO’s Partnership for Peace program in Hungary.

A Budapest court sentenced Safarov to life without the right to parole
during the first 30 years of his imprisonment on April 13, 2006.

However, Hungary extradited Safarov to Azerbaijan on August 31, 2012.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev immediately pardoned Safarov, promoted
him to major, gave him keys to a new apartment and paid allowance
for 8.5 years.

Azerbaijan “flagrantly breaches international laws, international
conventions and agreements,” Nalbandian said.

Yerevan said earlier that it would break up diplomatic relations with
Hungary over the incident.

In turn, the Hungarian Justice Ministry said Safarov was extradited
to Azerbaijan pursuant to the Strasbourg Convention on Extradition
signed in 1983.

The Hungarian extradition of the Azeri officer does not conflict with
international legal norms, Azeri Foreign Ministry spokesman Elman
Abdullayev said.

The U.S. demanded Hungarian explanations of the transfer of Safarov
to Azerbaijan on August 31. U.S. National Security Council press
secretary Tommy Vietor expressed concern over his pardon.

NATO SECRETARY GENERAL IS LATE: YEREVAN MEETINGS TO BE HELD TOMORROW

Mediamax
Sept 5 2012
Armenia

Yerevan/Mediamax/. For some technical reasons, NATO Secretary General
Anders Fogh Rasmussen will arrive in Armenia with a delay of several
hours, as a result of which his meetings in Yerevan will be held
tomorrow.

In Yerevan, NATO Secretary General is scheduled to meet with the
Armenian President and ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense.

A joint press conference of Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Serzh Sargsyan
will be held at the Presidential Palace tomorrow.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen will also deliver a keynote speech at the
University of Yerevan tomorrow at 10:30.

AX MURDERER’S PARDON STIRS FEARS OF WAR

CNN News
Sept 5 2012

By Joe Sterling, CNN
September 5, 2012 — Updated 2216 GMT (0616 HKT)

(CNN) — An ax murder. Then, jail time. Sounds like a morbid crime
story.

Yet this tale has taken a sudden and unexpected twist: The killer
got a pardon and a hero’s welcome.

That has stirred fears of a war.

The parole has exacerbated long-standing tensions over disputed land
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Soviet republics that are
nestled in the Caucasus region near Turkey, Iran and Russia.

The nations fought a war two decades ago over the region of
Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories. Much of
the area is now occupied by Armenia.

A return to warfare could suck in world powers, analysts warned
Wednesday. Thomas de Waal, an expert on the Caucasus with the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, told CNN world energy markets would
be disrupted in a conflict since an oil and a gas pipeline carrying
Caspian oil curves around the conflict zone in Azerbaijan.

The ax killing happened in 2004 at a NATO center in Hungary, where
troops from Armenia and Azerbaijan were getting training. Ramil
Safarov, a soldier from Azerbaijan, killed Armenian officer Gurgen
Margarian. Both men were studying English.

Safarov was sentenced to life in prison in Hungary, but that country
recently extradited him to Azerbaijan with the understanding that he
would serve at least 25 years of the sentence.

Not long after Safarov arrived in Azerbaijan, though, Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev pardoned him.

Armenians recoiled at what happened next: The killer got an apartment
and a promotion.

“Mr. Safarov has been glorified in Azerbaijan as a national hero at
all levels — including the top level,” said Zohrab Mnatsakanian,
Armenia’s deputy minister of Foreign Affairs. “This is a blow to the
conscience of Europe, to the civilized world.”

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said on Twitter that the “issue
must be considered in the context of aggression and ethnic cleansing
against Azerbaijan by Armenia.”

The United States, meanwhile, was among those nations objecting to
the pardon. It expressed “deep concern” and asked Hungary for more
information on why it extradited Safarov.

“We are communicating to Azerbaijani authorities our disappointment
about the decision to pardon Safarov,” a spokesman for the National
Security Council, Tommy Vietor, said in a statement the White House
released. “This action is contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce
regional tensions and promote reconciliation.”

Sabine Freizer, director of the International Crisis Group’s Europe
program, said world powers have taken note.

“There is an awareness among government officials, both in the United
States, Russia, and among European officials, that this conflict
is getting worse. There should be something done to stop it,”
Freizer said.

“This takes us a whole step downward,” said the Carnegie Endowment’s
de Waal.

The tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh reflect strong cultural attachments
for both peoples, what Sergey Markedonov, visiting fellow of the Russia
and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, likens to a “Jerusalem for both societies.”

Animosities over the disputed territory have simmered since the end
of World War I. The Soviet Union’s collapse in the 1990s triggered a
war from 1992 to 1994 that killed 22,000 to 25,000 people and uprooted
more than a million others.

The war ended “with a shaky truce,” the International Crisis Group
said.

The disputes between the countries over Nagorno-Karabakh and other
territories remain an “unresolved conflict of the Soviet period,”
Freizer said. Amid the creation of newly independent countries after
the Soviet collapse, she said, “no one was focused on the conflict.”

“The kind of support for Yugoslavia,” whose breakup led to major wars
in Bosnia and Kosovo, was “never given to this region.”

Over the years, violence has flared. Both countries occasionally talk
tough about each other. And Azerbaijan’s oil and gas wealth is making
its way into the budget for a military preparing for war, Freizer said.

“Since 2011, we feel the situation has gotten worse,” Freizer said.

The killer’s pardon prompted a certain outrage factor, she said.

“People were shocked by this.”

Hungary defended its extradition and said it received assurances
the killer would carry out his term. But the country criticized the
“sudden and unexpected release” and called it “unacceptable.” Armenia
suspended its relations with Hungary.

The disputes are unfolding in a tough neighborhood.

Turkey has been mired down in fighting with Kurdish rebels. Russia
fought a brief war with Georgia four years ago and has battled Islamic
insurgents in its northern Caucasus region in recent years. Iran
supports Syria’s government in its civil war.

“Russia is a military ally of Armenia. Azerbaijan has strong military
links with Turkey and they (Armenia and Azerbaijan) are both on the
border with Iran,” de Waal said.

Also, he said, the Armenian-American community “will beat the drum”
and push for U.S. action.

Markedonov said a deteriorating conflict could spawn an arms race.

The incident reflects a lack of willingness among many citizens to
compromise and get back to peacemaking, Markedonov said. This could
play into upcoming elections, with both Aliyev and Armenian president
Serzh Sargsyan seeking to look strong for the voters.

De Waal also wrote in a column that the BBC published Tuesday that
Hungary negotiated the extradition “for reasons that have yet to be
fully explained.”

He called the events a “black week” for a peaceful resolution to the
conflict and said it’s “now a full-blown state-to-state row, with
as yet knowable consequences.” He cites worries that “a fanatical
Armenian will try to commit a revenge attack.”

“From the political perspective, to call the Azerbaijani government’s
actions a mistake is an understatement. It is a worrying indication
of the quality of advice that President Ilham Aliyev is receiving
from his inner circle.”

De Waal said diplomats must work harder now. When there is no peace
process, he told CNN, “the vacuum is filled by war talk.”

“If there is any silver lining to this dark episode it could be that
the international community pays more attention to the dangers of
a new Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh,” de Waal
wrote in his column.

“The reception given Safarov suggests that the situation is moving
closer to war than peace.”

UPCOMING CSTO MILITARY EXERCISES HAVE A “CONCRETE PRACTICAL SIGNIFICANCE” FOR ARMENIA

Mediamax, Armenia
Sept 4 2012

Yerevan/Mediamax/. “Interaction-2012” exercises of the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will be held in Armenia on
September 15-19.

The process of preparatory works was discussed at the session of
a task force today under the chairmanship of the Secretary of the
Armenian National Security Council, Artur Baghdasaryan.

“Large-scale CSTO rapid reaction force exercises have an important
public, political and practical significance for us,” said Artur
Baghdasaryan.

It was stated at the session that all the ministries are ready to
conduct the event at an appropriate level.

A SINKING SHIP? IS IT TIME FOR ORBAN’S HUNGARY TO TURN WESTWARD?

Hungarian Spectrum

Sept 5 2012

Just as I feared, we will have to return to Azerbaijan, not so much
as a diplomatic issue but as a part of the financial plans that may
have been behind the decision to release a convicted murderer to Baku.

Because surely no one will believe the story the Hungarian Foreign
Ministry came up with yesterday, that Hungary was conned by the
Azeris. The current claim is that the Hungarians believed in the
honesty of the Azeri president and his ministry of justice. And look
what happened. Surely, a very unlikely story.

The talk about negotiations with the Azeri government over the purchase
of 2-3 billion euros’ worth of Hungarian government bonds turned out
to be true. After all, the Turkish bank that was supposed to issue
the bonds confirmed it. However, on September 3, the State Oil Fund
of the Republic of Azerbaijan issued this statement: “Regarding the
news about the purchase of Hungarian debt obligations, the State Oil
Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan publicly reveals that SOFAZ is not
considering any investment into debt obligations or other financial
tools in Hungary.” Since then we learned that SOFAZ, even if it had
wanted to, couldn’t have bought junk bonds in such quantities.

Because, let’s not forget, about two years ago Hungarian government
bonds were downgraded to junk status. According to Portfolio.hu,
SOFAZ’s official investment strategy specifies that only 5% of the
fund can be invested in highly speculative assets.

I’m sure that we will never know what was promised. Something had to
be, because I can’t believe that Viktor Orban would be so naive as
to let loose a much coveted “national hero” simply as a favor. Just
yesterday I heard an interview with Orban’s old roommate and political
ally Gabor Fodor, who knows him well. According to Fodor, to Orban
the notion of making a gesture is a totally unfamiliar concept. He
doesn’t even make a secret of the fact. In fact, he boasts about it.

So, I am still going on the assumption that Orban one way or the other
was expecting big bucks from Azerbaijan, the prospect of which now
appears to be fading by the hour. Thus it seems that Viktor Orban is
ready to change course yet again. Most likely because he cannot do
anything else.

The last time I wrote about the stalled IMF/EU negotiations the
prospects for an early agreement seemed grim. The IMF spokesman
announced at the very end of August that there was no date fixed for
the renewal of the talks that had been interrupted at the end of July.

The sticking point was apparently the transaction tax on the Hungarian
National Bank, on which Viktor Orban was insisting. Analysts excluded
the possibility of an agreement in the fall and predicted a possible
conclusion of the talks sometime next year. Portfolio.hu was even more
pessimistic. The economic journalists working for this financial paper
were certain that the aid talks will not continue at all. Details of
the state of the negotiations a week ago can be found in my August
31 post.

So, great was my surprise when I read in the September 3 issue of
Magyar Nemzet that the office of Mihaly Varga had informed them that
negotiations will continue in September. This morning Viktor Orban
himself talked about the resumption of negotiations and expressed
his firm belief that a favorable conclusion to the negotiations is
just around the corner. It will occur sometime during the fall. He
added that, although there are still outstanding issues that must
be ironed out, the negotiations are proceeding well. “The ball is
now in Hungary’s court,” he added. As for the transaction tax on the
Hungarian National Bank, Orban indicated that “there is intention on
both sides to find a middle ground.” A few minutes later Mihaly Varga,
the chief Hungarian negotiator, decided to chime in and emphasized
that Hungary cannot afford not to have an agreement. Actually, he
used the expression “nem úszhato meg az IMF-hitel.”

Why this sudden eagerness to talk with the IMF? One reason might be
the possibly empty promises of the Azeri government. However, there is
another piece of news that most likely reached the Hungarian government
sometime in the last twenty-four hours. Bruxinfo.hu reported from
Brussels today that the paper had received news from reliable sources
that the European Commission may launch an infringement procedure
against Hungary on September 27 over the financial transaction tax
Hungary plans to introduce in 2013. European Union sources confirmed
that, in addition to the European Central Bank, the European Commission
also has very strong doubts that this planned transaction tax is in
line with EU regulations. As soon as this news hit, the Hungarian
forint began to fall. At 2:30 p.m. the euro/forint cross was trading
at 284, an hour later at 286.

It is quite possible that Viktor Orban is becoming desperate. He tried
to get money from China, Saudi Arabia, and Azerbaijan and came up
empty-handed. He also tried to get out of the obligations that bind
Hungary to the European Union. It doesn’t matter how often he tells
his followers that Hungary’s economic war of independence against
the European Union has been successful, the fact is that without
EU assistance Hungary would immediately collapse. Almost everything
that’s being built in Hungary is being done with European funds. If
these funds were to disappear, Hungary would end up high and dry.

The potential loss of revenue from the transaction tax is a problem
by itself. Without Orban’s cherished transaction tax on the Hungarian
National Bank there will be an even larger hole in the 2013 budget.

As it is, the budget is more than shaky because it is based on overly
optimistic economic growth numbers. Orban got rid of the Budgetary
Council that was supposed to be the watchdog over the government’s
handling of the budget because he feared that they would look too
hard at the government’s figures. So instead of an office with a
staff of forty he appointed three men to oversee the budget. Surely,
he thought that these men would not disturb much water. Well, he
was wrong. Árpad Kovacs, the head of the new Budgetary Council,
is demanding reliable data from the Ministry of National Economy;
he refuses to accept the figures offered by the ministry. Right now
the ministry and the budgetary council are at loggerheads.

According to analysts, as it now stands the proposed budget is short by
about 500-600 billion forints. Without changing course it is unlikely
that the country can survive economically. It seems that Orban might
have to give up some of his “unorthodox” policies. For example, the
flat tax. Moreover, he seems ready to turn his ship from its eastward
course back toward the old, decrepit, tired Europe that is incapable
of handling its own problems but ponies up a lot of money for Hungary.

Of course, there are still people who are skeptical about Orban’s real
intentions. Peter Oszko, finance minister in the Bajnai government,
is one of these. In an interview this morning he expressed his belief
that because of the forint’s fall this afternoon Orban and Varga came
out with these optimistic stories about the negotiations in order to
calm the nerves of the markets. Nothing will come of the negotiations.

I’m a little less skeptical. Mostly because I heard this afternoon
that Viktor Orban will be paying an official visit to Berlin in
October where he is going to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel. They
will be talking about bilateral diplomatic relations and the further
strengthening of economic ties. These forthcoming negotiations were
prepared by Peter Szijjarto in Berlin where he met Christoph Heusgen,
foreign adviser to Merkel and a member of the staff of the chancellery;
Cornelia Pieper of the foreign ministry; and Peter Hintze of the
economic ministry. Szijjarto told his negotiating partners that
Hungary agrees with Germany on the necessity of a strong Europe and
Hungary will support all German efforts in this direction. According
to Szijjarto, there was agreement that “after the crisis is over the
European Union’s economic engine will be cooperation between Germany
and Central Europe.”

So, is Orban getting desperate or is this just another one of his
typical games? We will see.