KARABAKH CONFLICT BEYOND POLITICS
Naira Hayrumyan
21:05 10/01/2013
Story from Lragir.am News:
A peculiar apolitical dialogue is going on between Armenians and
Azerbaijanis. The Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II has proposed
a meeting with the religious leader of Azerbaijan on the border,
while Baku-based officials circulate rumors that they will pay the
Soviet savings to those Karabakhis who will apply to the Azerbaijani
authorities.
Without discussing the rationality and seriousness of these steps it
should be noted that even the mediators have stopped talking about
a political settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and the talks
are already held not on a political level. This is partly due to
the upcoming elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the
recognition of the fact that the Karabakh issue can be solved only
in the context of global transformations related to Turkey. This is
to some extent due to the diminished role of Russia in the region
and the growing influence of the West.
One way or another, the past year was significant for the Karabakh
settlement. The Russian efforts for the settlement proposing return
of territories by Armenia failed. The West did not support this plan,
and in January 2012 it was successfully rejected in Sochi.
Afterwards the possibilities of “cooperation without settlement”
were discussed, such as opening of communications without signing
agreements on the final settlement of relations of Armenia with
Azerbaijan and Turkey. By the way, there were such hints during the
visit of the U.S. ex-secretary Clinton.
Besides, Armenia called mediators to accelerate the signing of a
document which will guarantee non-use of force in the region.
Safarov’s case affected the Karabakh settlement which was a substantial
reason for Armenia to reject the proposed schemes.
Last year a new trend occurred in the settlement. NKR was recognized
by two small American states, as well as the Australian state of
New South Wales. Besides, the speaker of the parliament of Uruguay
visited Stepanakert who did not rule out the recognition of NKR by
sovereign Uruguay.
In late January 2013 the next meeting of the ministers of foreign
affairs of Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs will be held to discuss new ideas proposed by the mediators.
However, these ideas are obviously aimed at stability rather than a
final settlement. For example, the ex-representative of the Russian
president Vladimir Kazimirov wonders why the OSCE CiO cannot convey to
Baku that they support the idea of signing an agreement on non-use of
force or condemn violations of the ceasefire by Azerbaijan. It is not
enough to tell that there is no military settlement, the focus must
be on their unacceptability. He concluded that too much political
correctness may cost too high a price for the publics.
Most probably, the apolitical trend in the Karabakh settlement will
continue. The mediators will hardly achieve an atmosphere of confidence
but the time spent on it will be peaceful.