Author: Badalian Vardan

Armenia and Azerbaijan still skirting war in Nagorno-Karabakh

Since the mid-1990s, the tiny territory of Nagorno-Karabakh with about
160,000 people has become a `frozen conflict’ zone despite rounds of
peace talks to settle its status.

Toronto Star
Wed Feb 20
2013

By: Olivia Ward, Foreign Affairs Reporter

In the 1990s, the aftershocks of the Soviet Union’s collapse kept on
coming in the fractious southern Caucasus.

Georgia fought two separatist wars. Russia battled Chechen rebels. And
the tiny disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh exploded into conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In the 21st century, two out of the three – Georgia and Chechnya –
went back to war. And this week – on the 25th anniversary of a vote
that launched two decades of unresolved ethnic strife in
Nagorno-Karabakh, a leading expert on the little known region says it
could be next.

`The risk may seem relatively low,’ said Thomas de Waal of the
Carnegie Endowment, `but the only thing that is stopping a war is the
leaders’ own calculation.’

Nagorno-Karabakh was shared for centuries by Muslim Azeris and
Christian Armenians. But after the First World War, the newly-formed
Soviet Union created a largely Armenian autonomous region of
Nagorno-Karabakh within the republic of Azerbaijan. In February 1988,
the local Soviet parliament for Karabakh voted to join Armenia,
touching off an inter-ethnic explosion.

Some 30,000 people died in conflicts that left ethnic Armenians as
victors, who occupied new territory in Azerbaijan to create a buffer
zone and corridor linking Karabakh and Armenia. The enclave was
declared an independent – but unrecognized – republic.

War broke out again, and pogroms of Armenians and Azeris forced both
groups to flee their homes. A Russian-brokered ceasefire ended the
fighting in 1994. But more than 1 million ethnic Azeris and Armenians
still cannot return home.

Since then, the tiny territory of about 160,000 people – one-fifth the
area of Nova Scotia – has become a `frozen conflict’ zone despite
rounds of peace talks to settle its status.

Meanwhile, said de Waal, Azerbaijan has become an economic oil giant
in the region, but with a democratic deficit. President Ilham Aliyev’s
regime is using its new-found wealth to equip and expand the army. It
is also ratcheting up tensions with anti-Armenian rhetoric.

In one of the most extreme cases, 75-year-old writer Akram Aylisli was
burnt in effigy for a book he wrote to heal relations between ethnic
Azerbaijanis and Armenians, and a pro-government party offered a
$13,000 bounty for cutting off his ear.

`Azerbaijan doesn’t want a compromise with people who `stole our
land,’ ‘ de Waal said last week at University of Toronto’s Munk
Centre. `It spends $4 billion a year on its army.’

As Karabakh Armenians see themselves losing the arms race, some favour
a `knockout blow’ against Azerbaijan before the point of no return is
reached.

`There’s also the possibility of an accidental war started along the
ceasefire line – one day someone could lob a mortar shell across it,’
said de Waal. In an uneasy neighbourhood that includes traditional
foes Iran, Turkey and Russia, a renewed conflict could have a ripple
effect.

Both sides routinely attend sporadic peace talks and say they want a
peace deal. But with Azerbaijan demanding a return of Karabakh, with
some autonomy, and Armenia insisting on independence, it’s unlikely to
happen soon.

`There are perfectly sensible plans for peace, but there have to be
basic levels of trust,’ de Waal said. `Now there’s a lack of both
trust and interaction.’

PFA Publishes the Results of Its Preliminary Analysis on Presidential
Election in Armenia

02/22/2013

Policy Forum Armenia (PFA) just concluded its preliminary analysis of
the official results of Armenia’s 2013 Presidential Election based on
the data provided by the Central Election Commission. Consistent with
eyewitness accounts and a large body of local media reports, our
analysis – which we summarize below – confirms the following:

· Presence of a significant and systemic effort to artificially
inflate the voter turnout (Figure 1, Panel 1
). The
deviations from the expected pattern (i.e., the normal or Gaussian
distribution) appear to be larger than those found in our analysis of
the 2008 Presidential Election (see Figure 1 in PFA’s Report on
`Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election: Select Issues and Analysis

‘).

· This turnout-enhancing fraud was conducted on behalf of the
incumbent, Serge Sargsyan, and against the main challenger, Raffi
Hovannisian (Figure 1, Panels 1 and 2
). The
deviations from the expected pattern are massive and exceed the range
found during the 2008 election (see Figure 2 in PFA’s Report on
`Armenia’s 2008 Presidential Election: Select Issues and Analysis

‘).

· In addition to artificially inflating the voter turnout, votes cast
in favor of Raffi Hovannisian and other opposition candidates were
fraudulently assigned to Serge Sargsyan: for every 100 ballots cast in
polling stations with artificially high voter turnout, Serge Sargsyan
received 105 votes (as measured by the slope of the straight line
onFigure 2, Panel 1
).

· Voter turnout was inflated by ballot stuffing, among other means.
As shown on Figure 2, Panel 3
, the
number of invalid ballots declined asthe voter turnout increased, a
clear sign of ballot stuffing. This result contrasts with the findings
of the 2012 Parliamentary Election, where ballot stuffing was not
found to be a major factor (See PFA’s report on `Armenia’s 2012
Parliamentary Election

‘).

· There are indications that invalid ballots were counted in favor of
the incumbent (Figure 2, Panel 4
). The
share of votes assigned to Serge Sargsyan is larger in polling
stations where the ratio of ballots treated as `invalid’ is lower.

· There is strong evidence of vote-counting fraud in polling stations
in rural areas. The digit tests (Figure 3
) reveal
signs of human interference in voter counting (e.g., reassigning of
ballots from one candidate to another, etc.) as measured by a
significant deviation from the uniform distribution (of votes cast in
favor of two front-runners) in polling stations outside of Yerevan and
Gyumri.

All in all, we conclude that in polling stations not affected by
falsifications, the main opposition candidate, Raffi Hovannisian,
shows a lead of at least 4 percent of the vote. This, however, is
likely to be the lower bound of the difference between the two
front-runners, because of the extent of violations in favor of Serge
Sargsyan, as mentioned earlier.

This analysis challenges – in the strongest possible way – the
official version of the events, the statement of the OSCE-ODIHR
observer mission, and the reports in Western media outlets about the
extent of violations that took place on February 18, 2013.

Our results strongly indicate that the final outcome of February 2013
election was subject to massive manipulations and interference and did
not reflect the free will of the Armenian citizens.

They also call into question the role of foreign election observers in
the Armenian context, specifically their impartiality and ability to
detect election fraud that is becoming ever more sophisticated.

We strongly encourage Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters to
forcefully pursue either a system-wide recount of ballots (which would
undoubtedly reduce the share of the incumbent’s votes and lead to the
second round election) or a complete annulment of the election
outcome, as the only ways forward for the country and its people.

FULL REPORT with GRAPHS:

Le Monde, France
Vendredi 22 Février 2013

En Arménie, l’opposition dans la rue pour contester l’élection présidentielle

Raffi Hovannissian veut poursuivre l’élection présidentielle
arménienne dans la rue. Défait lors du scrutin du 18 février, le
leader du parti Héritage dénonce les fraudes massives qui auraient
entaché le vote.

Selon les résultats officiels, le président sortant, Serge Sarkissian,
59 ans, a obtenu 58,64% des suffrages contre 36,75% pour Raffi
Hovannissian, 54 ans.

Ce dernier, ancien ministre des affaires étrangères, a réuni 5 000
personnes au centre de Erevan, mercredi. Il souhaitait à nouveau
rassembler ses partisans jeudi soir. “Je respecte le président, mais
personne n’est au-dessus des lois, explique M. Hovannissian au Monde
par téléphone. Le peuple s’est réveillé. Nous utiliserons toutes les
voies légales et politiques pour nous faire entendre. Les tribunaux,
eux, ne sont pas indépendants. Notre pays est au bord de la révolution
par l’évolution. C’est-à-dire la révolution sans sang versé.”

“PROPOSER DE NOUVELLES ÉLECTIONS”

Raffi Hovannissian estime être le vainqueur de l’élection. De façon un
rien provocante, il a appelé le président Sarkissian à la rejoindre,
place de la liberté, afin d’assurer une “transition pacifique du
pouvoir”. “Le moins que le président puisse faire est de proposer de
nouvelles élections, vu comment elles ont été manipulées, dit-il.
C’est à lui de décider s’il reste cinq ans de plus en fonction en
instrumentalisant la Commission électorale centrale, ou bien s’il
choisit le sens civique.”

M. Hovannissian comptait se rendre une nouvelle fois place de la
liberté, jeudi après-midi, là où le président Sarkissian avait prévu
également d’organiser une réunion publique. Une démarche à risque. Le
souvenir des affrontements violents entre l’opposition et la police,
qui avaient fait dix morts après la présidentielle de 2008, plane
encore dans la population. Mais le candidat de l’opposition, vêtu d’un
blue-jean délavé, une écharpe dénouée autour du cou, a été finalement
reçu en début d’après-midi par le chef de l’État pour un long
entretien. M. Hovannissian n’a pas précisé ses intentions à la
sortie. A cette heure, une forte mobilisation populaire ne semble pas
vraisemblable.

ENCRE EVANESCENTE

Les partisans de M. Hovannissian affirment détenir des vidéos,
montrant des employés du secteur public professeurs, médecins, etc.
convoqués par leurs supérieurs pour recevoir des consignes de vote.
Comme l’a souligné également la mission d’observation de
l’Organisation pour la sécurité et la coopération en Europe (OSCE),
l’État a mobilisé ses ressources administratives et ses btiments au
service de la campagne du président sortant. L’opposition dénonce
aussi l’utilisation d’encre evanescente : le tampon attestant que la
personne a voté s’efface facilement, ouvrant la voie aux passages
multiples.

La campagne présidentielle s’est déroulée dans une atmosphère assez
morne, la réélection de Serge Sarkissian paraissant certaine aux yeux
de tous. Les deux principaux rivaux du président avaient renoncé à se
présenter : il s’agit de l’ancien chef de l’Etat, Levon
Ter-Petrossian, et du leader du parti Arménie Prospère, Gagik
Tsarukian.

Tous les sondages annonçaient avant le scrutin une victoire dès le
premier tour pour Serge Sarkissian. Une chute des intentions de vote
en sa faveur avait été néanmoins constatée dans la dernière ligne
droite, notamment après que l’un des candidats de l’opposition,
l’ancien dissident Paryur Hairikian, eut été blessé par balles devant
chez lui, le 31 janvier.

Le Monde.fr Piotr Smolar

Chairman of Armenia’s Athletics Federation on accident involving
Armenian team in Turkey

TERT.AM
21:20 – 24.02.13

Chairman of Armenia’s Athletics Federation Robert Emmiyan told
armsport.am that the Armenian team has already departed for Armenia
after participating in the Balkans League held in Istanbul.

`I received calls all day long asking me what has happened with our
athletes. I know information has been spread in Armenia that our team
was engaged in a car accident. Luckily, there is no need to worry. It
has happened two days ago near Turkish town of Samsun. The accident
was not serious, the team continued its way to Istanbul after 25-30
minutes,’ he said.

On February 23 the Armenian athletes participated in Balkans League.
Today they departed from Istanbul to Yerevan on bus. The federation’s
chairman expressed gratitude for concerns but urged not to sow panic
without any grounds.

One Night of Election Torment
Ararat Davtyan

17:00, February 20, 2013
Contrasting impressions

Artashat, polling station 17/2, school #2, 1:10 a.m.: OSCE/ODIHR
observers Aaron Johanson and Eckhart Rodhen come inside. Five and a
halfhoursprior I met them in the neighboring 17/5 polling station.
Observers Artak and Narine were alarmed bythe ballot stuffing there,
but the OSCE/ODIHR observers told them they wouldprobably not be there
forthe ballot counting. So I was very happy to know that Johanson and
Rodhen would be present.

It was around 8:00 p.m. Along with Hetqcameraman Hakob Poghosyan I
went inside the 17/2 polling station and the doors were locked
immediately after we went inside. After midnightsome local observers
came too, but the doors weren’t opened. Then came Johanson and Rodhen,
the “international” observers, leaving all doorsclosed behind them.

Rodhen and Johanson
`We heard that the ballot counting stopped,’ said their translator.

`We are finished now and already signed the envelopes. Who told you
that?’ said the Republican Electoral Commission chairmanHrach
Hovhannisyan querulously.

`Yeah [or Aaa]… Good, they’re done,’ one of the international
observers said to the other.

I don’t want to step over the limit and repeat what I was feeling at
that moment in their presence. They didn’t ask anything of us, neither
from any member of the commission nor the observers present. They were
just enjoying jokes by Gegham Mirzoyan, who’s Serzh Sargsyan’s proxy.
Smile, laugh and compliment; the tense atmosphere in the long corridor
of the school momentsbeforehad completely disappeared. A few minutes
later we left, leaving a big, still opened ballot bag full of
envelopes in the precinct and taking an official document of
distribution of votes with us: Serzh Sargsyan – 1,411, Raffi
Hovannisian – 287, Hrant Bagratyan – 13…

Republican Party commission members and Serzh Sargsyan’s proxies

Officiallypresent in the 17/2 polling station were proxies
representing the Armenian National Congress (HAK), Heritage Party,
Prosperous Armenia Party, Electoral Commission representatives, and
proxies of presidential candidates Raffi Hovannisianand Hrant
Bagratyan. But Mirzoyan was coordinating everyone and everything,
including theundertakingsof Hovhannisyan, the commission chairman.

Hrach Hovhannisyan Gegham Mirzoyan
Meanwhile the `Rights of Europe’ union observer Narek Babayan tried to
do his job andtalked about violations.He was threatened and insulted
by Mirzoyan, someone named Armen (as I understand, Mirzoyan’s son),
Armen’s friends and the chairman of the commission.

Basically, almost everyone in the precinct was watching Narek closely.
There were 10 people therewho weren’t asked to leave by the commission
chairman, although Narek announced that nonessential individuals had
no right to be in the polling station. Instead, the chairmanasked the
police, standing silently nearby, to remove Narek as he interrupted
their work. But fortunately, the police didn’t do anything, as always.

However, per Sargsyan’s proxy’s demand, they removed a group of
observers who had come urgently and were gathered near the window of
the school corridor.

`Ruined’ ballot counting

The first thing that attracted our attention during the ballot
counting was the perfectly stacked ballots taken from the box.
Everyone of themwas a vote for Serzh Sargsyan. There were about 10 to
11 similar bundles. When randomly arranged ballots were taken from the
ballot box, the majority of the votes were for Raffi Hovannisian.

Sargsyan was undisputedly leading; you could clearly see that his
votes were one-third more that Raffi Hovannisian’s, and stacks of
ballots were continuously taken from the ballot box. Narek went out
for a smoke; I was doing the same on the other side of the corridor
and Hakob the cameraman was videotaping the ballot counting.He told me
that something happened: some people intentionally stood in front of
him, blocking the view of his camera. It seemed that Hovannisian’s
ballots decreased significantly during those moments.

Nonessential individuals in the polling station
Hakob’s guess wasn’t baseless: Hovannisian’s ballots were less than
they had been five minutes prior. But we were calm; Hakob was
shooting, and we were surethat the footage would clarify
whetherHovannisian ballots really decreased

Recalling Narek’s stories about possible ballot stuffing in the 17/2
polling station, I first thought that in order to “balance” the vote
they decreased Hovannisian’s ballot count bystuffing. Later I noticed
that Sargsyan’s ballots significantly increased. Anyway, Hakob and I
were waiting for the counting to end.

However, during that time Mirzoyan became more active. He invited
Hakob and I to the neighboring room to drink some brandy, joking and
offering to exchange phone numbers, assuring us that he was a good,
supportive friend and, despite everything, he would like us to hang
out `like brothers’the following day.

The counting was well underway. Narek was standing behind two people
sitting beside one other and counting, and was silently watching the
process. Suddenly, he announced that at least 3, even 10 ballots
counted by the woman sitting in front of him weren’t for Sargsyan.But
instead of stopping, the woman continued to count them as Sargsyan’s
ballots.

Hasmik Lazarian Narek Babayan
Then commission chairman Hovhannisyan started to yell and requested
that the counting stop for one hour. He started to scold Narek for
making the woman, who was the same age of his mother, cry.

`If her son was here right now he would kill you,’ he told Narek.

The woman who was counting–the representative of Electoral Commission
Hasmik Lazarian–wasn’t actually crying. In her conversation with us
she mentioned that she had been there since morning, and being tired
she perhaps didn’t notice a thing or two, and there had been no need
to offend her. Apparently, Lazarian felt offended because Narek was
suspicious of her counting.

There was a group of people on the other side of the corridor.
Mirzoyan and Hovhannisyan tried persuading her to continue counting
but she refused, requesting that someone else step in. “I have a grown
daughter, I feel embarrassed.” Then she told me, “I don’t know what
would happen to me if Narek offends me once more.”

They started counting again. Narek, standing in the same place, was
watching them, but Lazarian sat in another spot around the table.
Then I decided to watch. She was counting Sargsyan’s votes by raising
the bottom-left edge of the ballots (maybe intentionally, I don’t
know).

Sargsyan’s name was second-to-laston the ballot, and I noticed that on
those counted ballots the last three boxes were empty. I looked up,
and at that moment the commission chairman, who was staring directly
into my eyes, said friendlily that if I had any comments I should
express them. I showed one of the ballots to everyone, saying that it
was cast for Raffi Hovannisian, who was listed under number 3.

`Who is that?’ one bold man yelled, pointing at me.

`That’s Arayik, chairman of the 17/3 polling station,”Mirzoyan said.

I took a bunch of ballots, pushed them forward and said that it seemed
all of themwere votes for Raffi.

Nonessential individuals in the polling station 17/2
Then Mirzoyan started to shout at me, asking what did I have to do
with ballots, being a journalist. Then he turned to Narek and said,
“This is all your fault, rat.”

Later he started to threaten that he would lose his control and would
start to use bad words, like “idiot,” `punk’ and others. The
commission chairman “reminded” Narek that he wasn’t a man, and that
patriotism wasn’t demonstrated in such a way.

I can’t even remember how allthat noise stopped. Mirzoyan advised
Hovhannisyanthathebring it to an end. He generously added 3 (the ones
that Narek noticed) votes to Raffi Hovannisian’s 284, then added up
the number of ballots cast for other candidates along with void and
empty ballots. Then he deducted that number from the entire total and
tallied that number for Serzh Sargsyan. That’s how it turned out.

Photos: Hakob Poghosyan
Video: Hakob Poghosyan and Narek Babayan

Arabkir Gym School Director: “Local officials want to fire me for not
collecting votes for Serzh”

16:56, February 22, 2013

Ashot Gharagyozyan, the director of the `Games Gymnastics Scholl in
Arabkir, came to the Hetq office and related what happened to him in
the context of the February 18 presidential election.

“Yesterday I received a call from the Republican Party campaign HQ in
Arabkir. Those who told me to visit were Hrayr Antonyan, the Arabkir
District Leader and Yerevan Municipal Councilman Arayk Mkhitaryan.

They asked me why Serzh Sargsyan lost in Arabkir. I told them I didn’t
know. I said I was never the president of the election committee or
the head of the local campaign HQ. Thus, I wasn’t responsible for
anything. I told them I was never given any responsibility in terms of
collecting votes.’

They told me I should write a letter of resignation. I asked why. They
said because all of us had lost, the president, in Arabkir. I asked
what connection did I have in the matter and that I was only
performing my work in the gymnastics school.

They began to hurl sexual expletives at me. They repeated that I would
have to write a resignation letter and that my replacement had already
been assigned. `We have paid him off,’ they said. `With that money in
their pocket they will do everything to bring in votes in the next
election.’

I am deeply insulted. I’ve had a few heart palpitations since the
morning and have called an ambulance several times. What type of
gangsterism is this? What perversion? Who has ever witnessed a
government official, a member of the Yerevan Council, act in such a
manner? Who saw fit to appoint him to such a post?

There curses and awful behavior…They wanted to strike me. For what?
There were others present as well bit I didn’t know them.

I won’t go to the police. But I want to tell what happened through the
press. I have written a letter to the president and the human rights
defender.”

P.S. We have tried to contact Hrayr Antonyan and Arayik Mkhitaryan,
but to no avail.

(The above photo was taken on August 10, 2011. It shows Hrayr
Antonyan, the Arabkir Deputy District Head at the time, on Papazyan
Street directing the dismantling of sidewalk kiosks.)

Raffi Hovannisian: “A flood of freedom is sweeping over Armenia”

15:51, February 24, 2013

Today’s rally in support of Raffi Hovannisian’s so-called’
BAREVolution’ kicked off with the presidential candidate announcing
that an authorized rally will take place on February 28.

Hovannisian said that Freedom Square no longer belongs to any one
political party but to all who desire a free and fair Armenia.

The Heritage Party called for unity amongst the people and said that a
difficult process lay ahead but that this was the order of the day.

He said that fear, giving into intimidation and hopelessness weren’t
values worthy of the Armenian people and that they should be relegated
to the waste in.

Hovannisian called the movement for positive change in Armenia as a
deluge that would sweep away the dirt, liars and corruption that has
accumulated during the past twenty years.

He said that present-day wasn’t the Ottoman Empire nor the Soviet
Union where the people should coil in fear.

`Dear brothers and sisters, you have followed me over the years and
know that I have only respect for those in public service who follow
the law. But I call on all those in public service to stop
photographing civilians in an attempt to spread fear. The people have
tasted freedom and it can no longer be taken away from them,’
Hovannisan stated.

Hovannisian repeated that the citizens of Armenia have awakened to the
fact that they are the masters of their own fate and will no longer
kowtow to those issuing orders from inside the chambers of government
or from passing black cars’

He announced that tomorrow the Central Electoral Commission must
declare its final report regarding the February 18 election. One hour
after their statement, I will give a press conference and offer my
evaluation.

On February 26, Hovannisian said the revolution of love and welcome
will continue.

`I will take that message of peace to all the regions of Armenia – to
Armavir, Metsamor, Etchmiadzin, Masis, Artashat, Ararat, Surenavan,
Areni, Yegheknadzor and Vayk. On February 27, escorted by the police
in mutual respect to Agarak, Meghri, Kajaran, Kapan, Goris, Sisian.’

On February 28 he said the tour will Charentsavan, Nor Hajin, Abovyan,
and then back to Freedom Square to return the power for the people at
a mass rally at 5pm.

He boasted that the Armenian Armed Forces would be turned into the
most capable in the world and spoke of the sacrifices and tribulations
that the Armenian people have experienced.

Hovannisian said he would be walking to the Yerablour Military
Cemeteryto pay homage to all those who have fallen in the defense of
Armenia.

This, he declared, was on the occasion on the holiday marking Soviet Armey day.

Hovannisian said those participating in the rally were welcome to join
him and his family in their visit to the cemetery but that it would be
a peaceful and respectful procession.

ARMENIE-POLITIQUE
Le Mouvement National Arménien ( ÕÕÕ?) est mort hier à Erévan, remplacé
par le Congrès National Arménien

Hier lors du 18e Congrès exceptionnel de Hay Hamazkaïne Charjoum
(Mouvement National Arménien à Erévan, l’une des questions important
était l’union du MNA avec le Hay Azkaïne Congress (Congrès National
Arménien) pour devenir un nouveau parti uni, le Parti du Congrès
National Arménien. Dans le projet de ce changement de nom du MNA, il
est précisé que le Parti du Congrès National Arménien (CNA)
conserverait tout l’historique et les priorités idéologiques définies
par le MNA en poursuivant sa ligne politique. Par un vote à main levée
375 membres du MNA ont voté pour ce changement du MNA en CNA contre 3
abstentions et 6 contre. La proposition a donc été adoptée à la
majorité écrasante des voix malgré quelques mises en garde des membres
tels que l’ex-Président du Parlement arménien Papken Ararktsian qui
estime que par ce changement du MNA n’est pas un simple « changement
technique » mais que vont disparaitre dans la nouvelle organisation
disparaitront les acquis du MNA. Lévon Ter-Pétrossian, le premier
Président de l’Arménie issu du MNA a de son côté affirmé que le MNA
était devenu un « club privé » et une sorte de « secte » depuis la
fuite vers l’étranger de Vano Siradéghian. « La période de 2000 Ã 2007
était la plus difficile pour le NMA, période durant laquelle elle
organisait des congrès, participait aux élections, mais ces éléments
furent désastreux pour le MNA » dit sévèrement Lévon Ter-Pétrossian
qui a ainsi offert au feu-MNA un « enterrement de première classe ».
La MNA issu du Comité Karabagh et qui avait en septembre 1991 le parti
qui était parvenu au pouvoir en donnant le Premier Président à la
nouvelle troisième République d’Arménie avait après les premières
années du pouvoir s’était fait une réputation sulfureuse. Par la mort
du MNA par ses fondateurs, une nouvelle ère débute avec le CNA. Le MNA
a cessé d’exister. Vive le CNA…

Krikor Amirzayan

dimanche 24 février 2013,
Krikor Amirzayan ©armenews.com

Protecting the right to vote in Armenia
by Dzovinar Derderian

Published: Saturday February 23, 2013

Protesters gather in the aftermath of February 18 elections. Photolure

The authorities in Yerevan once again falsified the presidential
elections. Just as before, people have rushed to the streets to urge
the authorities to recognize the voice of the majority. Once again an
opportunity has emerged for a civil movement, which includes not just
people who have voted for Raffi Hovhanisian, but also citizens who
have not voted for him and doubt in his potential as a politician.

People are joining this movement to protect the basic right to vote: a
right, without which no democracy can exist. Five years ago, an
opportunity for a civil movement had also emerged, and anyone
concerned with the birth of democracy in Armenia should learn from the
experiences of 2008.

Lessons of 2008
Based on negative memories and hatred towards Levon Ter Petrossian,
many political parties, journalists from the Diaspora and Armenia,
non-profit organizations, certainly also individual citizens and
diasporans did not support the movement that began in 2008. In
contrast, many minimized the violations of the 2008 elections, did not
restrain from painting Levon Ter Petrossian and his team in black and
most unfortunately described the demonstrators and activists as sheep,
traitors, and so on. This stance, arising from personal preferences
and party politics, indicates that maybe those opposing the 2008
movement had not understood that the demonstrations were not in about
electing Ter Petrossian as president, but rather in support of the
Armenian citizen’s democratic right to vote.

Others realized that the 2008 movement was a struggle for democracy,
but argued that such demonstrations and movements would destabilize
Armenia and harm the image of the nation internationally. By now it
should hopefully be clear that as long as Armenia is not democratic,
the country would be instable. Those who opposed the 2008 movement
prevented an opportunity for developing democracy in Armenia and
ensuring stability.

Regardless of whether or not Ter Petrossian or Hovhannisian as
presidents would have been or will be able to uphold democracy in
Armenia, one must stand by the demand of the people, if one believes
in democracy.

Just like in 2008, now as well, we must stand back from our personal
preferences and struggle for the wish of the majority of the people.
We cannot forget that this movement demands the de jure recognition of
a de facto elected president. Just for this reason the 2008 and 2013
movements in their nature first and foremost embody civil rather than
political principles.

A civil rights movement
The rally on February 22 seems to have landed the movement towards a
promising direction. Speakers of the podium and among the people of
Liberty Square have also stated that being present at the Liberty
Square does not signify that they have voted for Raffi Hovhannisian.
Raffi also, commendably, has tried to divert the movement from his
personality. Having said that if the current movement will remain a
civil movement, then Raffi Hovhannisian and other political leaders
should refrain from uttering their domestic and foreign policies from
the podium of the Liberty Square; the 2013 presidential campaign has
ended.

The current situation does not demand creating a political coalition,
at this point efforts should be directed towards enhancing a civil
movement. The involved individuals and political forces may not be in
agreement with the perspectives of the Heritage Party, they have
united, and I hope more will unite, to struggle for the citizens’
right to vote: for democracy.

In response to those joining the movement, Raffi Hovhannisian should
not demand anything less than the presidency that he has won. Thus to
ask for new parliamentary elections or commit to any other compromise
will be unacceptable for the participants of the civil movement
because to protect the democratic rights of the citizens in the
Republic of Armenia stands as the forefront purpose of this movement.

– Dzovinar Derderian is a PhD student in Near Eastern Studies at the
University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

Libération, France
17 févr 2013

Arménie, terre d’évictions

REPORTAGE De l’achat de voix aux pressions, le chef de l’Etat sortant
a usé de tous les moyens en vue de la présidentielle d’aujourd’hui.

Par VERONIKA DORMAN Envoyée spéciale à Erevan

Une tentative d’assassinat contre un candidat, un autre en grève de la
faim et, au final, un scrutin présidentiel, aujourd’hui, joué d’avance
au profit du président sortant, Serge Sarkissian, du Parti
républicain. «Pour la première fois de l’histoire de l’Arménie
postsoviétique, il n’y a absolument aucun doute sur les résultats,
reconnaît d’emblée Sergey Minasyan, politologue à l’Institut du
Caucase d’Erevan. Ce scrutin n’est concurrentiel que formellement. En
réalité, le candidat du pouvoir n’a absolument aucun rival sérieux.»
Sarkissian a effectivement fait campagne dans un vide politique
puisque ses plus sérieux concurrents ont abandonné la course, à la fin
de l’année dernière. Selon Andrei Arachev, de l’Institut des études
orientales à Moscou, les candidats de l’opposition, Gagik Tsarukian
(Arménie prospère) et Levon Ter Petrossian (Congrès national arménien)
se sont retirés pour des raisons différentes, mais essentiellement
parce que le pouvoir leur a fait comprendre que leurs chances de
gagner étaient nulles.

Soulèvement. En 2008, l’Arménie avait vécu un soulèvement suite à un
scrutin jugé frauduleux. Levon Ter-Petrossian, le premier président de
l’Arménie postsoviétique, s’était vu refuser un second tour contre
Serge Sarkissian, alors Premier ministre et candidat du pouvoir, alors
qu’il avait rassemblé le nombre de voix nécessaires. Il avait mobilisé
des dizaines de milliers de manifestants, qui n’avaient pas quitté la
rue pendant dix jours. Les autorités avaient fini par faire fusiller
la foule, tuant dix personnes. «Le pouvoir a tiré les leçons de 2008
et a fait en sorte de contrôler totalement le processus politique»,
analyse l’expert.

Pour défier la machine du pouvoir, le Congrès national arménien et
Arménie prospère avaient décidé cette fois d’unir leurs forces dans la
course présidentielle autour d’un candidat unique. Mais en vain.
«Quand nous avons échoué à former un front commun, nous avons pris la
très mauvaise décision de ne pas participer aux élections, admet le
président de la fraction parlementaire du Congrès national, Levon
Zourabian. Mais c’était un moindre mal. Il n’y avait pas de meilleure
alternative.»

Pour justifier sa défection, l’opposition invoque le refus de
participer à un simulacre d’élections démocratiques. «Elle boycotte
ces élections car elle ne veut pas partir avec une longueur de
retard», explique l’analyste politique David Petrossian, qui décrit le
principal outil de falsification utilisé par le pouvoir dans toutes
les élections : de 500 000 à 700 000 électeurs inscrits sur les listes
électorales ne résident pas en Arménie et n’ont légalement pas le
droit de voter. Néanmoins, ces voix finissent toujours par gonfler les
scores du pouvoir. «Pour un pays de 1,1 million d’électeurs réels,
c’est énorme, continue Petrossian. Cela annule toute chance pour toute
réelle concurrence.»

Le pouvoir utilise également ses ressources administratives. Plusieurs
méthodes sont énumérées par les critiques. Le «carrousel» : on fait
circuler des groupes de gens de bureau en bureau pour les faire voter
plusieurs fois. Le pot-de-vin ou l’achat du vote, «souvent une
proposition que l’on ne peut pas refuser, surtout en milieu rural
pauvre», note Petrossian. Et la simple pression, via ses supérieurs à
l’école à l’armée, et dans toute administration. «Le pouvoir joue sur
le besoin et la pauvreté des gens, ou alors sur leur sentiment de
peur», est convaincue Ana Chakhnazarian, 27 ans, une militante de
l’opposition qui ira en observatrice dans un bureau de vote. «Ils font
du porte-à-porte dans les villages, et sont venus proposer 10 000
drams [18,4 euros] à mon père pour qu’il vote “comme il faut”»,
s’indigne la jeune femme, en rappelant que plus de 30% de la
population vit avec moins de deux euros par jour.

A quelques pas de là, au pied de l’Académie des sciences, sous une
tente de fortune, le candidat Andreas Ghukasyan en est à son 27e jour
de grève de la faim. «Depuis l’indépendance, le principe d’égalité des
droits ne s’est pas affirmé dans notre société. C’est une oligarchie,
le pouvoir est aux mains d’un groupe qui se place au-dessus des lois
et contrôle, sans partage, les ressources politiques et économiques du
pays», explique le politologue.

Balle. Il n’est pas le seul outsider à faire parler de lui : Paruyr
Hayrikyan, 63 ans, a, lui, reçu une balle à l’épaule, le 31 janvier,
lors d’une tentative d’assassinat. Les experts sont convaincus que les
taux de participation seront bas, vu l’absence d’alternative. Le
pouvoir pourrait même, cette fois-ci, se payer des élections plutôt
honnêtes. Mais ce serait compter sans l’ascension du candidat Raffi
Hovanessian, qui a fait une campagne fulgurante. Il serait même favori
dans les grandes villes. Contestant les pronostics des fatalistes,
Hovanessian est convaincu que l’Arménie est à l’orée d’une «révolution
électorale».