LATENT POLICY BY ARABS
Groups of prominent Arab politicians cooperating with one another to
a significant degree and trying to form a pan-Arab policy understand
that the Near East and the Arab world are exposed to serious political
and religious divide, in other words, a more serious threat than the
policy of Israel.
Arab politicians with a great experience have been sending signals to
not only political elites but also the entire political class starting
from the 60s about the imminent catastrophe of establishment of two
or three adversary poles in the Arab world.
Such differences and controversies existed always but now some oil
exporting Arab states are interested in continuous and multi-vector
fight with the states of Fertile Crescent. These states and their
leaders have understood that they have made big mistakes in their
calculations and the loss in the fight for Syria which will allow the
Shiites and states which are not against or support the influence of
Shiites to create a sort of a military-political bloc.
Articles appear in special Arab literature which evoke forgotten plots
of past decades on that Syrians, Lebanese and Iraqis are not Arabs …
and have usurped “the lands of Islam”. In addition, not the
supporters of fundamentalism or radical groups of “Muslim Brothers”
but Europeanized authors and politicians are speaking about it.
Most probably, not confessional but geopolitical interests of separate
Arab states are meant. Most probably, the political circles are trying
to integrate with separate strategies and intentions of the United
States but most probably the point is the understanding that the
participants of the Shiite bloc may become leaders and locomotives
of the Arab world.
By the way, it should be noted that a separate group of Arab states,
that countries of Maghreb like their Arab partners belonging to the
Mediterranean region and not the countries of the Persian Gulf.
One of the first to noticed these new political tendencies in the Arab
world were the professors of the University of Damask and different
universities of Beirut. It is clear and can be explained by chaos in
Cairo, the political center of the Arab world, and some intellectual
tasks are seen better from liberal and pro-Western Arab centers,
that is Alger, Rabat, Beirut and Damask.
It is noted that such confrontation with Shiite states and communities
is not needed, and confrontational and even aggressive initiatives stem
from states of the Persian Gulf. Everyone is expecting a resolution
in Egypt but resolution failed, and Saudi Arabia may be interested
in continuously removing Egypt from the solution of problems of
pan-Arab importance.
The destructive processes in Syria will be followed by a time of active
formation of the Shiite bloc which will call for a respective reaction
of Turkey and Iran which cannot refrain from mutual accusations
and tougher confrontation. This time Saudi Arabia will propose
formalization in the relations with the states interested in resistance
to the Shiite “belt” stemming from the geopolitical interests.
Turkey will hardly agree to take part in a formal and informal
bloc in the Near East. Western and Near Eastern partners proved too
unreliable. No doubt Turkey will resume efforts to penetrate into the
region but will it choose one-sided cooperation this time? Meanwhile,
the Arab states definitely prefer one-sided cooperation with them.
On the other hand, is another principal perspective of formation of
regional alliance of Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, as well as some
other states, possible? Such a format is not a fantasy but a realistic
thing, considering that the time of formal alliances is past.
In any case, the United States will refrain from declaring its attitude
to one alliance or another in the Near East. The Americans are fully
against alliances that would assume a relatively independent posture in
international politics. However, it should be assumed that the United
States will prefer to observe the balance of forces in the Near East
which is entering into a new stage of geopolitical developments.
Igor Muradyan 14:05 19/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30502