Author: Badalian Vardan

MOVIE ON KARABAKH WAR TO BE SCREENED AT CANNES FILM MARKET (PHOTOS)

MARCH 10, 16:29

By Shushan ShatikyanYEREVAN. – An Armenian-production film, Jivan
Avetisyan’s Tevanik, will be screened in this year’s film market
which is organized within the framework of the Cannes International
Film Festival The National Cinema Center of Armenia provided some
assistance to the director of the film, but it is Avetisyan’s
initiative to introduce the movie to the Cannes film market, Cinema
Center Spokesperson Ruzan Bagratunyan told NEWS.am STYLE.

“The cinema center provides a stall there, where presentations,
screenings, evenings, meetings, etc. are held,” she added. In
Bagratunyan’s words, no other submissions have yet been received for
participation in either the Cannes festival or the film market.

For his part, Jivan Avetisyan told NEWS.am STYLE that even though the
National Cinema Center of Armenia is the co-producer of the movie, the
latter will be introduced to the Cannes film market at his initiative.

Avetisyan himself leased the hall where the movie will be screened.

Tevanik is an 80-minute Armenian feature film that tells the story
of the Karabakh war.

IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD APPROVES US$127.6 MILLION EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT FOR ARMENIA

12:23 10.03.2014

Armenia, IMF

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today
approved a 38-month SDR 82.21 million (about US$127.6 million, or 89.4
percent of Armenia’s quota) Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement
with the Republic of Armenia to support the authorities’ economic
program. The approval enables the disbursement of SDR 11.74 million
(about US$18.2 million), while the remaining amount will be phased over
the duration of the program, subject to semi-annual program reviews.

The program aims to support a rebound in economic activity, further
progress in poverty reduction, inflation stabilization, and a reduction
in outstanding fiscal and external vulnerabilities.

Following the Executive Board discussion on Armenia, Ms. Nemat Shafik,
Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:

“Armenia’s performance under the 2010-13 Extended Fund Facility and
Extended Credit Facility arrangements was sound. However, growth
and inflation remain volatile, the external current account deficit
continues to be large, and poverty and unemployment are still high.

The new 38-month extended arrangement with the Fund aims to support
the authorities in addressing these challenges and to sustain Armenia’s
access to international financial markets.

“Fiscal policy will play a central role in the program, supporting
growth in 2014 and reducing the headline deficit over the rest of
the program period to build up policy buffers. Delivering planned
revenue gains and reducing the under execution of the public investment
budget will be essential for successful implementation of the fiscal
strategy. Another key measure in the fiscal area is setting up
institutional structures to monitor and mitigate fiscal risks.

“Under the authorities’ program, monetary policy will continue to be
framed by inflation targeting in the context of a flexible exchange
rate regime. For the financial sector, policy will be geared towards
promoting resilience to shocks and greater financial deepening.

“Growth-enhancing structural reforms will also play a central role
in the new program, given the objective of transforming Armenia into
a dynamic emerging market. In this context, smooth accession to the
Eurasian Customs Union, along with continuing growth of trade and
other links with the European Union, will be essential to achieve
diversification of markets, products, financial flows, and investors.

“Risks to the new program appear to be manageable, and Armenia’s
repayment capacity remains robust. The authorities have a long
track record of sound macroeconomic policies but maintaining a
strong ownership of the program will be essential to its successful
implementation.”

LES PRINCIPAUX TRAITES DE PAIX DE LA PREMIERE GUERRE MONDIALE (AFP)

HISTOIRE

Du traite de Brest-Litovsk, signe dès avant la fin de la guerre
entre les Bolcheviques et les Empires centraux, au traite de Lausanne
(juillet 1923) conclu avec la Turquie, les puissances belligerantes
ont signe entre elles pas moins de 16 traites de paix. Voici les
principaux d’entre eux :

Brest-Litovsk (3 mars 1918) :

La jeune Republique bolchevique, issue de la Revolution d’Octobre en
Russie, signe le traite de Brest-Litovsk avec les Empires centraux. Il
met fin aux combats sur le front de l’Est mais la Russie perd une
grande partie de ses territoires occidentaux au profit de l’Allemagne
(Pologne, Pays baltes, Finlande notamment) et plus de 30% de sa
population.

Versailles (28 juin 1919) :

Le traite signe dans la galerie des Glaces du château de Versailles met
fin a la guerre entre l’Allemagne et les Allies. L’Allemagne, qui n’a
eu aucune voix au chapitre, est designee comme seule responsable du
conflit. Coupee en deux par le corridor de Danzig isolant la Prusse
orientale, elle perd 15% de son territoire (dont l’Alsace-Lorraine
restituee a la France) et 10% de sa population. Elle perd egalement
toutes ses colonies et se voit imposer de lourdes “reparations”
financières, notamment a la France. La Sarre est placee sous le
contrôle de la Societe des Nations (SDN) creee par le Traite a
l’initiative du president americain Woodrow Wilson pour que les
puissances règlent dorenavant leurs differents a l’amiable.

L’Allemagne, humiliee, accueille avec une violente hostilite le
“Diktat” de Versailles, qui nourrira une longue rancoeur et alimentera
la propagande nazie.

Saint-Germain-en-Laye (10 septembre 1919) :

Le traite de Saint-Germain-en-Laye entre les Allies et l’Autriche
demantèle l’empire des Habsbourg, vieux de sept siècles, en une
demi-douzaine d’Etats nouveaux ou partiellement nouveaux, selon le
principe pose par le president Wilson du “droit des peuples a disposer
d’eux-memes”. Ce morcellement sera source de nombreuses tensions
ulterieures. La Tchecoslovaquie reunit Tchèques, Slovaques, mais aussi
d’importantes minorites allemande en Boheme ou hongroise en Slovaquie.

La Roumanie s’agrandit de la Transylvanie et de la Bessarabie. La
Yougoslavie reunit les Slaves du sud. La Pologne recoit l’ancienne
Galicie autrichienne ainsi que des territoires enleves a l’Allemagne
comme la Posnanie ou la Haute Silesie. De l’ancien empire, ne reste
qu’une petite Autriche (83.000 km2 et 6,5 millions d’habitants)
uniquement allemande et une petite Hongrie (92.000 km2 et 8 millions
d’habitants).

Traite de Neuilly (27 novembre 1919) :

Le traite de Neuilly signe entre les Allies et la Bulgarie, entree en
guerre en 1915 aux côtes de l’Allemagne, bouleverse les frontières du
pays : des regions entières vont a l’ouest au nouvel Etat yougoslave,
au nord-est a la Roumanie, et au sud a la Grèce qui recoit la majeure
partie de la Thrace occidentale.

Traite de Trianon (4 juin 1920) :

Le traite de Trianon ampute la Hongrie, separee de l’Autriche depuis
le 31 octobre 1918, des deux tiers de son territoire tandis que 3
millions de Hongrois se retrouvent a l’exterieur, dont la plus grande
partie en Roumanie.

Traites de Sèvres (10 août 1920) et de Lausanne (24 juillet 1923) :

Le traite de Sèvres demantelant l’empire ottoman est rejete par les
nationalistes turcs rassembles autour du general Mustapha Kemal, qui
poursuit les combats contre les Armeniens, les Grecs et les Francais.

Par ses victoires militaires, le nouvel homme fort de la Turquie
impose un nouveau traite aux Allies qui sera signe a Lausanne, le 24
juillet 1923. La Turquie, devenue une republique, conserve l’Anatolie
et les Detroits mais perd toutes ses possessions arabes. La Palestine
et la Mesopotamie passent sous mandat a l’Angleterre, la Syrie et
le Liban a la France. La fin de l’Empire ottoman se traduit par un
enorme echange de populations : près de 1,3 million de Grecs doivent
quitter l’Asie mineure et près de 500.000 Turcs partir de Grèce.

AFP

lundi 10 mars 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

SARKIS SHAHINIAN REPOND A OSKAR FREYSINGER

SUISSE

a M. Oskar Freysinger –

Ref. Votre blog [1] –

Vos propos sont irresponsables et confus et vous les avez tenus a un
moment particulièrement mal choisi. De plus, ils sont offensants pour
la memoire des Suisses d’origine armenienne, pour celle de tous les
Armeniens du monde, et au-dela, pour celle de toutes les victimes de
crimes contre l’humanite. Sous couvert du debat democratique auquel
vous invitent vos responsabilites de Conseiller d’Etat du Valais
et de Conseiller national, vous ne vous livrez qu’a une decevante
tentative de recuperation politique.

Il ne sert a rien de clamer que vos propos ont ete manipules,
que des media ont cru bon de les biaiser, si dans la phrase qui
suit, vous ecrivez que vous auriez dû vous abstenir lors du vote au
parlement Suisse. Le vote [ii] du Postulat de Jean Claude Vaudroz,
repris par Dominique Buman, adopte le 16 decembre 2003 , exemplaire
de l’independance et des autres valeurs de la Suisse auxquelles
vous souscriviez a l’epoque, ne laisse aucun doute sur la realite
des faits concernes par le postulat. Je m’interroge sur les raisons
qui vous font aujourd’hui tourner le dos aux convictions qui etaient
alors les vôtres.

Contrairement a ce que vous ecrivez dans votre blog, vos declarations
a Fatma Sahindal du quotidien Aydinlik[iii], n’ont pas ete deformees.

Le journal auquel vous avez donne cet entretien est l’ organe du
parti de l’extreme gauche nationaliste des Travailleurs Turcs, jamais
represente au parlement turc, cree et preside par le president du
comite ” Talaat Pacha ” (du nom du principal responsable du Genocide
des Armeniens) Dogu Perincek, qui purge en Turquie une peine de
prison de 30 ans dans le cadre du procès de l’organisation terroriste
Ergenekon. Le nom de cette organisation a ete souvent cite dans la
presse et au cours du procès des assassins du journaliste Armenien
de nationalite turque Hrant Dink.

Reprenant complaisamment dans votre blog les memes arguments de haine
et racistes developpes par ce personnage, vous appelez vous meme a
la haine et au racisme.

1. Vous posez la question en anglais : ” etait-ce un genocide comme
les Armeniens le disent ou des massacres reciproques ? On ne peut
evidemment pas le savoir “. Vous affirmez ensuite : ” Il revient
aux historiens de le dire “. Ce n’est pas exact : les faits une fois
etablis par les historiens, il revient aux juristes de les qualifier
de genocide, un concept qui passe ensuite dans les critères politiques
comme c’est le cas par exemple, de l’adhesion d’un pays a la Convention
de l’ONU sur le Genocide ou de l’adoption du Statut de Rome sur les
règles de la Cour Penale Internationale.

Cette decision de la Cour Europeenne des Droits de l’Homme du 17
decembre 2013 dans l’affaire Perincek soulève une question grave sur
l’interpretation de la Convention Europeenne des Droits de l’Homme.

C’est en cela qu’il faut absolument demander en Grande Chambre le
reexamen de l’affaire Perincek c. Suisse.

Vous dites plus loin, en anglais ” J’ai du dire oui dans le passe a
la decision de reconnaissance du Genocide armenien…J’ai plus tard
realise que j’avais dit oui a une information superficielle fondee sur
des ouï-dire “. Ramener au rang d’une chose fondee sur des ouï-dire, un
concept que son createur lui-meme a dit avoir cree en pensant au sort
des Armeniens, ou des evenements qualifies le 24 mai 1915 de crimes
contre l’humanite par la France, la Grande Bretagne et la Russie dans
une note a la Turquie, est particulièrement insultant pour les victimes
et affligeant pour leurs descendants. Vous m’aviez assure, a l’epoque
du vote du postulat, qu’a vos yeux le Genocide armenien etait un fait
connu et reconnu, enracine dans la culture universelle. C’est grâce
a vous d’ailleurs que j’ai decouvert les bandes dessinees de Fleury
Nadal et du Decalogue, consacres au Genocide armenien.

2. Comment pouvez-vous faire croire que l’intellectuel que vous etes,
enseignant d’une ecole superieure, ait pu donner sa voix sur la base
d’une ” impression generale “, alors que vous avez a votre disposition
toutes les sources historiques fiables ? Votre reculade n’en est que
plus ridicule et indigne.

3. Avec les restrictions de l’alinea 2 de l’article 10 de la Convention
Europeenne des Droits de l’Homme, la libre expression est totale
en Suisse.

De facon incomprehensible, la Deuxième Chambre Cour Europeenne des
Droits de l’Homme n’en a pas tenu compte. Contrairement a ce que vous
affirmez, Dogu Perincek n’est pas historien. Il est titulaire d’un
doctorat en droit recu en Allemagne. Il ne s’est nullement ” penche
” sur la question armenienne ; il est venu en Suisse avec la seule
intention de provoquer, de nier et de perturber la paix publique. Il
a repondu au procureur que meme si une commission d’experts neutre
decidait de qualifier de Genocide le sort subi par les Armeniens, il
continuerait a nier les faits. Une preuve de plus, s’il en fallait,
que la justice suisse, en trois degres de jugement, a eu raison de
le condamner.

4.

ENVIRON 50 MILLIONS DE DOLLARS DEPENSES POUR LA CONSTRUCTION DU EREVAN MALL

ARMENIE

50 millions de dollars ont ete consacres a la construction du Erevan
Mall a declare son directeur en chef Varzik Sekoyan.

Il a declare que le centre commercial est detenu par trois societes
etrangères et une armenienne. Cette dernière est detenu par Norayr
Khachatryan. L’ouverture officielle du centre commercial a eu lieu
le 21 Fevrier.

Selon le directeur en chef, Erevan Mall sera le plus grand centre
commercial d’Armenie sur une superficie de 66000 mètres carres,
dont 33 mille mètres carres ont ete loues a quelque 120 magasins. Il
a declare que le centre commercial Erevan est construit selon les
normes europeennes et a cree environ 200 nouveaux emplois.

lundi 10 mars 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

JEUX PARALYMPIQUES D’HIVER DE 2014 : UN SEUL ATHLETE REPRESENTE L’ARMENIE A SOTCHI

RUSSIE

Une delegation armenienne compose de quatre membres dont un seul
athlète a deja quitte Erevan pour Sochi pour participer aux Jeux
paralympiques d’hiver qui s’ouvriront dans la ville russe le 7 Mars.

Les premiers Jeux paralympiques officiels ont eu lieu en 1960, tandis
que les premiers Jeux paralympiques d’hiver ont eu lieu en 1976.

L’Armenie a participe aux Jeux depuis 1998. Lors des Jeux a Sotchi
du 7 au 16 mars le representant de l’Armenie est le skieur alpin
Mher Avanesyan âge de 33 ans, qui participe a une >, qui est delivre aux pays qui n’avaient pas de participants aux
competitions comprenant des notations.

Environ 6,5 millions de drams (environ 16 000 $) ont ete alloues par
le budget de l’Etat pour assurer la participation de l’Armenie aux
Jeux Paralympiques de Sochi.

Mher Avanesyan, qui a les deux bras amputes, est du Haut-Karabagh. Il
est handicape depuis l’âge de 6 ans, quand il a accidentellement ete
electrocute en jouant. À 12 ans, il a commence a aller faire du ski
alpin. Il a participe aux jeux paralympiques d’hiver depuis 1998. Son
meilleur resultat a ce jour a ete la septième place. Mais Avanesyan
est un multi-profil athlète car il a egalement participe aux Jeux
paralympiques d’ete de 2000 a Sydney, en Australie, a la voile.

Le Secretaire general du Comite national paralympique d’Armenie Ruzanna
Sarkissian estime que les jeux paralympiques jouent un rôle important
pour les personnes handicapees.

>, a declare
Sarkissian a ArmeniaNow.

Elle regrette que de tels evenements aient si peu de publicite car ils
pourraient encourager d’autres personnes ayant des handicaps ainsi
que rappeler une fois de plus aux employeurs et aux organismes les
droits des personnes handicapees.

Les prochains Jeux paralympiques de Sotchi ne seront pas une exception
en Armenie car aucune societe de television locale ne diffusera
les evenements.

> a declare
le fonctionnaire.

La Television Publique d’Armenie a confirme a ArmeniaNow qu’ils
n’avaient pas achete les droits de diffusion des Jeux paralympiques
d’hiver.

En outre, les athlètes participant aux jeux paralympiques n’ont
presque pas de bonnes conditions pour les entraînements en Armenie.

Zarouhi Batoyan responsable de l’ONG >, a declare Batoyan.

Par Gohar Abrahamyan

ArmeniaNow

lundi 10 mars 2014, Stephane (c)armenews.com

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
March 9 2014

Exhibition documents 600 years of dialogue between Turkey and Poland

9 March 2014 /HATÄ°CE KÃ`BRA KULA, Ä°STANBUL

To arrange a meeting with a close friend of your
great-great-grandfather in order to learn about his life is one of the
opportunities which is nearly impossible to seize in your lifetime,
even though many of us have a deep thirst to obtain knowledge about
the past experiences of our relatives.

But now, a similar experience awaits both Turkish and Polish citizens
in Ä°stanbul’s Sakıp Sabancı Museum (SSM) which is presenting its most
recent historical exhibition, `Distant Neighbor, Close Memories: 600
Years of Turkish-Polish Relations,’ from March 7 to June 15.

As its title suggests, the show is held as part of the celebratory
events marking the 600th anniversary of Turkish-Polish diplomatic
relations, which started in 1414 when King Ladislaus Jagiello of
Poland sent two envoys, Jakub Skarbek of Gora and Gregory the
Armenian, to the court of the Ottoman sultan Mehmed I Çelebi in Bursa.

The exhibition showcases a total of 348 items, including sultans’
clothes, carpets, armor and paintings, to shed light on the results of
the cultural, political and economic connection between the two
distant countries during the wars, conflicts and peace up to the end
of the 17th century.

These pieces are on loan from the collections of 35 Polish museums,
churches, archives, libraries and monasteries and Ä°stanbul-based
institutions such as the Topkapı Palace Museum, the Museum of Turkish
and Islamic Art and the Sadberk Hanım Museum.

The displayed items are placed in the three floors of the exhibition
venue in such a way that they reflect the dialogue between Poland and
Turkey, SSM director-curator Nazan Ã-lçer pointed out during the show’s
press preview on Thursday morning.

Lives of Ottoman and Polish rulers explored

`We would like to explore the personalities and families of both the
Ottoman sultan Mehmed IV, [who played a part in the 1672-76
Polish-Ottoman War] and Polish King John III Sobieski, [who played a
major role in the Siege of Vienna which resulted in the defeat of the
Ottomans],’ Ã-lçer said.

The museum director also referred to the peaceful relations between
the two countries, giving the example of the Ottomans’ refusal to
recognize the 1795 partition of Poland by Austria, Russia and Prussia.
`The Ottomans preserved the protocol place reserved for the Polish
ambassador in the palace. On formal state occasions, it was always
declared that the Polish ambassador was delayed in his journey and
unable to attend,’ according to the press release for the exhibition.

Polish Minister of Culture and National Heritage Bogdan Zdrojewski
said the countries’ mutual respect is based on information and the
organizers of the exhibition have tried to provide an opportunity to
witness history. `Art events can bring us together and we have to
respect differences while doing so,’ the minister said. Zdrojewski
thinks the exhibition title perfectly reflects the character of the
relations between the two countries which have many similarities
despite geographical and cultural distances.

The travels of Polish ambassadors to the Ottoman lands, the Ottomans’
export of commercial products to Poland and the spoils of war
remaining from a defeated Ottoman army are among the main sources of
the similarities between the two countries.

As a demonstration of this, Ã-lçer drew the press members’ attention to
the design used on the materials of the Polish clergy’s clothes and
the carpets that adorned the homes of the rich Polish people of the
time. Beata Biedronska-Slota from the National Museum of Cracow wrote
an article about the same subject for a book about the exhibition.
`The best examples of Turkish handcraft, including carpets ¦ silk
fabrics with designs and clothes, had been unceasingly brought to the
lands of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth since the Middle Ages
thanks to the trade initiated by the Armenians,’ the article says.
Polish kings, nobleman and upper class citizens ordered works of art
from the Ottoman lands, according to Biedronska-Slota.

Ottoman taste influences Polish fashion

The exhibition also reveals the impact of Ottoman taste on Polish
fashion. Visitors can see the portraits of Polish people who dressed
the way Ottomans did. `Commercial and cultural relations between
Poland and Ottoman Turkey, which began in the 15th century and reached
their peak in the 17th and 18th centuries, made major contributions to
the arts in both countries, in particular influencing the manners and
dress of the Polish elite,’ Ã-lçer was quoted as saying in the press
release.

`Since a relationship going back to 600 years could not be represented
by material from Poland alone, we were obliged to find a contemporary
equivalent for every object brought from that country,’ the museum
director comments. While one wall of the exhibition space presents the
portraits of the family members of a Polish king, on the opposite wall
can be seen the family of an Ottoman sultan.

A section of the show displays objects — such as weapons, armor, a
gunpowder flask and a tent — the Ottoman army had to leave behind
following their defeat at the Second Siege of Vienna in 1683. These
items were shared by the noble families of Poland, Ã-lçer noted, and
twice expressed her gratitude to Polish institutions that have
preserved these items with the utmost care for long years.

Shedding light on diplomatic relations

A series of gravures, personal items, medals, oil-on canvas paintings
and letters along with other written documents such the 1699 Treaty of
Karlowitz — which marks of the end of the Ottoman control in a large
part of Central Europe — are among the items the exhibition uses to
inform viewers about diplomatic relations and the results of the wars
between Poland and Turkey.

`In the 17th century, changing power balances and alliances in Europe
and the policy pursued by the Habsburgs in Eastern Europe resulted in
the confrontation between the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of
Poland. This culminated in the Second Siege of Vienna in 1683. The
developments that led up to this climax ¦ the First and the Second
Battle of Khotyn,’ are all revealed thanks to these series of items,
according to the press release.

The historical developments in the Ottoman Empire and Poland after the
Second Siege of Vienna are also investigated in the show. The
post-1699 period covers the partitioning of Poland, some Polish
patriots and soldiers seeking refuge in the Ottoman lands and the
Polish battalion led by Sadık PaÅ?a that fought with the Ottoman army
during the Crimean War. Some series of maps, paintings and personal
items from the exhibition also shed light on such these events.

The exhibition will be accompanied by a series of events, including
screenings of Polish films, discussions attended by Polish directors,
concerts by Polish musicians and educational workshops for children.

Warsaw National Museum Director Agnieszka Morowinska, who was also
present at the press review, said she hopes this exhibition will
provide further encouragement to attract more Polish people to Turkey
as Polish people are already interested in the cultural heritage of
Ä°stanbul.

For visiting hours and ticket prices, go to muze.sabanciuniv.edu.

Berman Vote Stymied in Tie

By Brandon Gee
Massachusetts Lawyers Weekly
March 5, 2014

In the end, Joseph S. Berman swung only one of two votes he needed to
win appointment to the Superior Court, and his nomination died in a
4-4 tie at a meeting of the Governor’s Council this morning.

Berman’s nomination has been embroiled in controversy for months. Gov.
Deval L. Patrick held back a vote on the Looney & Grossman litigator
before ultimately withdrawing and resubmitting his nomination, which
allowed Berman to have a second hearing before the council and a
chance to address a myriad of concerns from his hefty political
donations to his leadership positions in the Anti-Defamation League.

With last year’s resignation of Lt. Gov. Timothy P. Murray, there was
no one to break today’s tie. Patrick presided over the meeting. The
governor said he accepted the outcome, but read a statement that
expressed support for Berman and disappointment in council members.
Patrick said it was “unprecedented and unfair” for a judicial nominee
to be punished for his involvement in politics and service
organizations.

“I think this is a sad day for the council,” council member Michael J.
Albano said. “It’s amazing that we’re talking about Mr. Berman’s
affiliation with an organization that does good things.”

Council member Jennie L. Caissie said her primary motivation in voting
against the Boston lawyer was the size of his political donations.

“I will not be part of the reality or the perceptions that judgeships
are for sale in Massachusetts,” she said.

Council member Marilyn Pettito Devaney said she remained concerned
about a call Berman placed to now-U.S. Rep. Katherine M. Clark on the
morning before his first confirmation hearing in November. Berman
initially denied calling any elected officials in connection with his
nomination when questioned about it in November before acknowledging
it when asked again later. Berman apologized at his second hearing on
Feb. 26 and said he initially misunderstood the question to pertain to
whether he placed any calls before applying to the Judicial Nominating
Commission. Devaney was not convinced.

“He lied,” she said. “Nothing else counts. He lied.”

Issue: March 10, 2014

17:15 05/03/2014 >> ECONOMY
Financial Times: French Total leaves Shah Deniz because of its unprofitability

French gas- oil company Total is in talks to sell its stake in a huge
gasfield in Azerbaijan after it baulked at the enormous cost of the
project, which would deliver Caspian gas directly to European markets for
the first time, the British paper Financial Times writes.

According to the article, the French major is likely to sell its entire 10
per cent stake in the Shah Deniz field. The move comes just months after
fellow investor Statoil of Norway reduced its stake from 25.5 per cent to
15.5 per cent.

The consortium of shareholders in the field, led by BP, in December
announced a final decision to invest $28bn on the second phase of its
development, one of the largest gas projects in the world, the Financial
Times reports. They also announced plans to build pipelines to ship the gas
3,500 kilometers across Turkey, Greece and Albania into Italy, making the
project a crucial plank of Europe’s strategy to diversify energy supplies.

Total’s decision was driven by the economics of the project, the people
said, as well as a broader asset sale programme. Including the cost of
building the pipelines, the total price tag for the project is likely to
exceed $40bn.

The article notes that Total remains committed to its other large gas
project in Azerbaijan, Absheron, in which it holds a 40 per cent stake.
However, it sees as “non-core” its 10 per cent interest in the Trans
Adriatic pipeline.

“Likely buyers for Total’s stake include Botas, the Turkish state pipeline
company, which “has been very interested for a long time in getting
involved in the upstream end of the project.” Socar, the Azeri national oil
company, may also be interested in buying the stake. Statoil’s 10 per cent
stake was sold to BP and Socar for $1.45bn,” the article reads.

Financial Times adds that Total and BP declined to comment; Socar did not
respond to a request for comment; and Botas could not be reached.

Ukraine crisis: Russia’s neighbours are nervous – but the huge costs
of intervention beyond Crimea are likely to make Moscow think twice

Despite the fears of small states, President Putin is unlikely to seek
to redraw his country’s borders

MARY DEJEVSKY

Sunday 09 March 2014

There is a view, expressed in Brussels last week with much passion by
President Dalia Grybauskaite of Lithuania, that, having occupied
Crimea, Russia will try to redraw the borders of its neighbouring
states, starting with Moldova and the Baltic states. But how realistic
is such a proposition?

Paradoxically, it is probably least likely in the Baltic states, the
very place that Russian expansionism is feared the most. It was
recognised in Moscow, even before the Soviet Union broke up, that the
annexation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was of dubious legality
and that the three states should be allowed to break away. That they
are now members of both the EU and Nato affords them exactly the
protection they sought when they applied to join.

Estonia, as the closest to Russia and the one with a Russian minority
concentrated at the border, might be seen as the most at risk. Russia
could, for instance, invoke the same “responsibility to protect” as it
has threatened to invoke in eastern Ukraine. Two factors militate
against this. Nato’s Article 5 – an attack on one is treated as an
attack on all – is the first. The second is the border treaty recently
agreed between Estonia and Russia, which means that the frontier is no
longer disputed.

Moving east, there is Belarus. Like Ukraine, it has developed a sense
of its own nationhood in the 20 years since the collapse of the Soviet
Union. Like Ukraine, too, its economic ties with Russia – energy
dependence, in particular – have not changed to reflect that new
reality. But there is no need at all for Russia to use force to tie
Belarus to Moscow more closely, partly because Belarus has no
equivalent of the western Ukraine which hankers after a future in the
EU, and partly because ties of all kinds could hardly be closer.

Moldova is in many ways the most vulnerable, not least because, like
Ukraine, it looks both ways and, were Romania to push for closer
relations with Moldova, Russia might interpret this as a threat.
Against that, Russia has done nothing about Romania issuing passports
to Moldovans. Nor has Moldova made any move to incorporate the mainly
Russian-speaking territory of Transnistria – whether for lack of will
or lack of power. This makes it hard for Moscow to claim security as a
pretext for seizing Transnistria with which it has no common border.

Would Russia try to reincorporate the republics of the Transcaucasus?
It had its chance to occupy and effect regime change in Georgia in
2008, but settled for leaving its troops in the two contested Russian
enclaves. Armenia is independent-minded, with a strong sense of
identity, but also relatively compliant. Azerbaijan prefers to grow
rich from oil than engage in international politics.

Different considerations apply to the five central Asian states, but
the conclusion has to be the same. Intervention would be more trouble
than it was worth. There is a large, but declining, Russian minority
in Kazakhstan that might one day seek protection from the Kazakh
majority, but the logistics would be horrendous. Russia had an
opportunity to intervene in Kyrgyzstan in 2005, but to the surprise of
many, declined.

The only possible reason for Russia to become more actively engaged
militarily in central Asia would be to combat the influence of China,
but that is some way down the line. The comparative poverty of these
states, booming populations and distance from Moscow would make them
more of a liability than an asset to Russia in almost every way.

A factor contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union was the
reluctance of Russians to continue supporting the poor and populous
south. That same sentiment is now directed against the subsidies being
funnelled to Chechnya. Ukraine is unique in its combination of a
divided population, its strategic position and its age-old ties to
Russia. But even here, the huge costs – not just in financial terms –
of intervention beyond Crimea are likely to make Moscow think twice.