Azerbaijan, Armenia Count on Russia’s Assistance in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan, Armenia Count on Russia’s Assistance in Nagorno-Karabakh
Conflict Settlement

A trilateral meeting between the presidents of Russia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan focused on the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh
started Sunday

(c) Alexei Druzhinin
15:52 10/08/2014

BOCHAROV RUCHEY (SOCHI), August 10 (RIA Novosti) – The presidents of
Azarbaijan and Armenia believe that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has
dragged on and advocate a speedy solution to the issue, counting on
Russia’s help, the Azeri leader said while meeting the Russian and
Armenian counterparts.

“This issue requires a solution; it has dragged on for quite a long
time. I hope that your personal interest in this matter will
kick-start the negotiation process,” Azeri President Ilham Aliyev
stressed while addressing Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

“As you have just stated, there is already a format for negotiations,
there is also a legal basis for the conflict settlement. The UN
Security Council adopted four resolutions calling for an immediate
withdrawal of Armenian occupation forces from the territories
belonging to Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, more than 20 years have passed
and these resolutions have never been implemented. I think that
Russia, as our close friend, partner and neighbor, plays a particular
role in this process. We hope that in the near future by means of
negotiations, by peaceful means we will find a solution, which would
comply with all the norms and principles of international law and
would also be fair,” Aliyev said.

A trilateral meeting between the presidents of Russia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan focused on the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh
started Sunday in the Bocharov Ruchey residence in Russia’s southern
resort city of Sochi.

“We believe that the conflict can be resolved and the solution should
be based on a compromise, on those principles that were offered by the
OSCE co-chairs,” Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan said.

“I am thankful to you for your intention to find a solution, which
will take into account Armenia’s national interests,” Sargsyan added
addressing Putin.

The meeting comes amid sharp ratcheting up of tensions along the
contact line of Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan which led to
casualties on the both sides.

According to the Defense Ministry of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,
recent attacks in the past days have claimed the lives of 25 Azeri and
five Armenian soldiers. The Azeri side insists it has lost 12
servicemen.

http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140810/191886168/Azerbaijan-Armenia-Count-on-Russias-Assistance-in.html

Armenians mourn loss of music master Sebouh Abcarian

Armenians mourn loss of music master Sebouh Abcarian

OBITUARY
August 9, 2014

Armenians mourn loss of music master Sebouh AbcarianSebouh Abcarian
By Staff Reporter

THE funeral will be held in Nicosia later today for Sebouh Abcarian, a
prominent member of the island’s Armenian community and a leading
figure in the classical and folk music scene.

The service will be held at the St. Asdvadzadzin Armenian church at 3.30pm.

Abcarian, a long-time choirmaster at the Melkonian school in Nicosia,
died at his home in Nicosia on Monday.

“Maestro” Apcarian, as he was fondly known within the community and
the wider Armenian diaspora, was a composer, conductor, painter and
educator. He founded the Armenian radio programme at the Cyprus
Broadcasting Corporation, where he served for 46 years.

He graduated the Melkonian Educational Institute and continued his
fine art and music studies in Paris. As an opera singer he performed
in Europe and the Middle East eventually returning to his native
Cyprus where he taught art and music and conducted the Melkonian
school choir, following in the steps of his music teacher and mentor
Vahan Bedelian, another legend in the music world.

After teaching and conducting school and church choirs for many years,
Abcarian took up the challenge to direct the newly established Kohar
Symphony Orchestra and Choir in Armenia, returning to Cyprus for their
first international performance in June 2002. After that, the music
world beckoned and Abcarian travelled with Kohar to Turkey, Russia,
the US, Syria, Lebanon, Uruguay and Argentina.

http://cyprus-mail.com/2014/08/09/armenians-mourn-loss-of-music-master-sebouh-abcarian/

ISTANBUL: Presidential candidates conclude campaign

Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Aug 10 2014

Presidential candidates conclude campaign

KONYA / ISTANBUL / İZMİR

The three candidates in the Aug. 10 presidential elections in Turkey
rallied their supporters for the last time in their campaigns, giving
assertive messages and warnings about ballot box safety.

`Your stance, your prayers have been heard in Baghdad, Mosul and
Arbil. They all called `Amen,” the ruling Justice and Development
Party’s (AKP) presidential candidate Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
ErdoÄ?an told his supporters in the Central Anatolian province of Konya
on Aug. 9.

`I believe that you will make the ballot boxes explode. Never leave
the ballot boxes without receiving the minutes of the proceedings
showing the number of counted ballots. You will respond to any kind of
fraud with those minutes,’ ErdoÄ?an said. `Maybe this is my last rally
as prime minister and AK Party chair. This is not a farewell. This can
only be a farewell to the old Turkey.’

`Fat cats threaten the safety of ballot boxes’

Ekmeleddin İhsanoÄ?lu, the joint nominee of the main opposition
Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party
(MHP), opted to give a speech to the members of the CHP’s local branch
in Istanbul’s Bakırköy district who were being trained to safeguard
ballot boxes from fraud attempts.

`The votes that are won at the ballot box are being lost on tables. We
shouldn’t let Turkey lose its last chance. The votes of the quiet
masses will boom tomorrow and `ekmek’ will come out of the ballot
box,’ İhsanoÄ?lu said. `Ekmek,’ which means bread in Turkish, was
chosen by İhsanoÄ?lu’s campaign as a symbol that also sounds like his
first name.

`Those fat cats that threaten the safety of the ballot boxes, those
dark hands, have started to appear,’ İhsanoÄ?lu warned.

>From Diyarbakır to İzmir

The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) candidate Selahattin DemirtaÃ…? was
in the western province of İzmir for his last campaign rally on Aug.
9. He gave messages of unity in a city that is widely regarded as the
stronghold of secular Turks, particularly CHP voters.

`We will enjoy freedom in our common homeland without any perception
of separation and division. Nobody should be afraid, as it’s easy for
us all to progress. An İzmir resident shouldn’t be afraid, because
Diyarbakır is with him. TekirdaÄ? shouldn’t be afraid, because Hakkari
is with him,’ DemirtaÃ…? said, while also calling on Sunnis to `embrace’
Alevis and Armenians and accusing ErdoÄ?an of sowing discord between
them.

Arguing that the HDP has become `the new main opposition party of
Turkey,’ DemirtaÃ…? said he now dreamt a president who could represent
all provinces from the east to the west ` `the first one ever that
takes the side of the people.’

August/09/2014

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/presidential-candidates-conclude-campaign.aspx?pageID=238&nid=70200&NewsCatID=338

ANKARA: Russia to mediate Azeri-Armenian talks over border

World Bulletin, Turkey
Aug 9 2014

Russia to mediate Azeri-Armenian talks over border

The presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are in Sochi to try
to resolve recent border clashes.

World Bulletin / News Desk

Russian President Vladimir Putin has met Azerbaijan’s President Ilham
Aliyev ahead of talks to resolve the latest outbreak of fighting on
Azerbaijan’s border with the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, the
Kremlin press office said.

Putin also met Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan separately in Sochi
on Saturday and the three leaders will meet for tripartite talks
later.

Azerbaijan and Armenia, two former Soviet republics, fought a war over
Nagorno-Karabakh between 1988 and 1994.

Since then there have been sporadic outbreaks of violence along the
border between Azerbaijan and the Armenian-majority enclave but the
fighting has intensified since the beginning of August, with a growing
number of casualties.

The last key agreement on a peaceful settlement to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was signed in Moscow in 2008.

Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a ceasefire in 1994 but never agreed a
peace settlement and Nagorno-Karabakh is still unrecognized. The two
countries have no diplomatic relations.

Wounded Azeri troops treated in Turkey

Three seriously wounded Azeri soldiers have been transferred to Turkey
for medical treatment, the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency
has reported.

The troops were injured in intense clashes between Azeri and Armenian
forces over the disputed border between the two countries. In the
fiercest fighting since violence broke out on August 1, 13 Azeri
soldiers were killed and scores injured.

The agency, known by the acronym TIKA, flew the soldiers into Turkey
for urgent medical care. Baku coordinator Mustafa Hasim Polat said the
evacuation demonstrated Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan.

Azeri lawmaker Melahat Hasanova said the gesture was a “symbol of
union and brotherhood.”

After a six-year war over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, the
two former Soviet republics reached a ceasefire in 1994. The truce has
been disrupted by sporadic cross-border incidents but the clashes of
the past week have seen the greatest number of casualties in 20 years.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/world/142214/russia-to-mediate-azeri-armenian-talks-over-border

Soccer: Shirak FC to miss Ghana’s Gyamfi in league opener

Goal.com
Aug 9 2014

Shirak FC to miss Ghana’s Gyamfi in league opener

By Evans Gyamera-Antwi

The Gyumri-based club will miss the services of the Ghanaian in their
first game in the Armenian top-flight league after failing to sort out
his paper works

Former Wa All Stars midfielder Emmanuel Gyamfi will not be able to
play a part in Shirak FC’s first game of the season after failing to
acquire his ICT in time.

The second most successful club in Armenia were scheduled to play
Banants in the opening games last weekend but it was postponed because
several of their opponents’ players were part of the national Under-20
team.

They will battle Ararat at the Hrazdan Stadium on Saturday. The
19-year-old midfielder is disheartened after hearing the news but
believes his club can do the job without him.

“It’s a very unpleasant news for me because I’ve done everything right
to play this weekend,” Gyamfi told Goal Ghana. “I was told by the
technical team I’m ineligible to play because my paperworks are not
complete. The coach is not happy so am I, but I believe all will be
sorted out so I can play in our next game since that was the main
reason why I came to Armenia.”

Gyamfi signed a one-year season-long contract last month with an
option to extend the deal.

http://www.goal.com/en-gh/news/4389/ghana/2014/08/09/5021433/shirak-fc-to-miss-ghanas-gyamfi-in-league-opener

Les Arméniens islamisés de Turquie, une nouvelle définition identita

Turquie Européenne
9 août 2014

Les Arméniens islamisés de Turquie, une nouvelle définition identitaire ?

samedi 9 août 2014, par Nil Delahaye

A la veille du 100e anniversaire du cauchemar de 1915, beaucoup se
souviennent, d’autres découvrent, il est temps de partager la douleur
pour la disperser. Mais quelle douleur ? Se souvenir de quoi
exactement ? Pourra-t-on un jour savoir au juste la teneur de toutes
les souffrances et lever les voiles qui recouvrent les vérités ?

Eglise Surp GiragosCrédits : Nil Delahaye

En novembre 2013, la Fondation Hrant Dink organisait une conférence de
trois jours sur les Arméniens islamisés > à l’Université de Boðaziçi. Il est d’abord
intéressant de noter la précision de l’expression permise par la
langue turque qui marque la pluralité des situations retracées au
cours de cette conférence en proposant de dire en même temps >, c’est-à-dire converti à l’islam, et >, c’est-à-dire forcé à l’Islam. Effectivement,
plus on se penche sur le sujet, plus on comprend que comme bien
souvent, la complexité des situations demande une analyse plurielle.
Le sujet des Arméniens islamisés bouscule les préjugés et les théories
identitaires et remet en question beaucoup d’a priori tout en
proposant d’apporter une nouvelle pierre à l’édifice de la diversité
en Turquie.

On a appris l’existence des Arméniens récupérés, sauvés, adoptés,
cachés mais aussi islamisés, asservis, mariés, assimilés, turquifiés,
absorbés par la société > (c’est-à-dire musulmane, et en fait
bien souvent kurde aussi) à l’époque des massacres de 1894 à 1918. On
l’a appris notamment grce à l’avocate du défunt journaliste arménien
de Turquie Hrant Dink, Fethiye Çetin, qui écrivait dans > paru en 2004 que son aïeule était une Arménienne qui
avait dû cacher son identité toute sa vie durant, qu’elle se souvenait
en fait des terribles conditions dans lesquelles sa famille avait été
assassinée et qu’elle avait survécu par chance, en étant islamisée, >. Depuis que ce livre et d’autres, ainsi que des travaux
individuels de Hrant Dink ont ouvert une lucarne sur le coeur de
beaucoup de citoyens, les esprits ont changé, les recherches se sont
multipliées, et la route vers la convalescence a été rejointe par une
multitude de sentiers.

Bien qu’il existe beaucoup de cas d’hommes et de garçons arméniens
rescapés, lorsqu’on parle des Arméniens islamisés, on parle encore
aujourd’hui beaucoup de grand-mères arméniennes dans les familles, ces
petites filles qui d’une manière ou d’une autre ont été des rescapées
du génocide. Selon Ayþe Gül Altýnay les histoires des femmes se
partagent avec plus de facilité car dans les sociétés patriarcales qui
dominent la quasi-totalité de notre monde, le lignage passe par les
hommes. Donc une grand-mère arménienne ne remet pas en cause
l’appartenance sociale et communautaire à la société musulmane. Tandis
que ce passé identitaire devient beaucoup plus lourd de transmission
et donc presque inavouable lorsqu’il s’agit d’un grand-père ou d’un
père.

Cependant, beaucoup d’histoires restent encore enfouies dans le
silence du côté des femmes aussi ; Doris et Arda Melkonian avancent
ainsi que certaines filles ont été données à la police comme
pot-de-vin pour sauver le reste de la famille, leur être et leur
identité sacrifiées en échange de la vie des autres membres de la
famille. On a sacrifié leur pouvoir social, culturel et linguistique
en échange de l’existence pleine et entière c’est-à-dire physique et
identitaire, des leurs. L’aveu des origines représente donc là aussi
psychologiquement et symboliquement un prix lourd à payer.

Montagnes et vallées du DersimCrédits : Nil Delahaye

Lors d’un voyage en Juin-Juillet 2014 en Anatolie (Diyarbakýr, Van,
Dersim et Hemþin) pour assurer la traduction du documentaire d’Anna
Benjamin . Pour le cas des rescapés Arméniens, il s’agit encore et
même cent ans après d’un instinct de survie. Pour que sa descendance
vive il faut absolument lui cacher la vérité sur ses origines. On
retrouve dans beaucoup de cas une tendance à transmettre l’effacement
même des traces de son passage sur terre et une discrétion infinie du
souffle qui porte l’histoire de chacun. On ne transmet pas l’origine
car on nous a promis qu’on survivrait si on devenait un citoyen
neutre. Ne pas transmettre les origines, cela signifie aussi tuer la
mémoire des aïeux. Quelque part tout le monde, les Arméniens aussi,
participe un peu au mensonge et à l’amnésie de la présence
socio-culturelle arménienne en Anatolie. C’est comme vendre sa mémoire
(et celle de ses parents) pour acheter la vie de ses enfants.

L’identité, une valeur remise en question par l’existence même des victimes

Lors de la conférence organisée par la Fondation Hrant Dink et les
semaines suivantes, il était intéressant d’entendre notamment le
questionnement posé par les journalistes du journal Agos dans le
programme Radyo Agos diffusé les samedis sur Açýk Radyo (une radio
indépendante stambouliote). Jusqu’à présent, l’identité arménienne en
Turquie ne s’affirmait pas tellement en relation à la langue que
beaucoup n’ont pas eue l’occasion d’apprendre, mais surtout par la
religion. Des minorités, telles que définies dans le Traité de
Lausanne (1923) qui établit la république de Turquie ainsi que
l’indépendance de l’Arménie, ne sont reconnues que les non-musulmanes.
L’identité juridique des Arméniens tombe donc sous le coup de cette
acceptation des minorités. Lorsqu’on parle d’Arméniens musulmans, on
remet en question beaucoup de présomptions et l’idée même chamboule la
terminologie attribuée à la description de cette communauté. Pour la
communauté arménienne >, comment considérer ces gens qui
sont en même temps un peu nous et un peu eux ? Comment, lorsque
l’identité politique s’est constituée sur la lutte pour la liberté
religieuse, peut-on accueillir des éléments de la majorité dans le
discours identitaire ? Comment, lorsqu’une communauté est constituée
de survivants d’un drame national, peut-on embrasser des métis qui
sont tout autant du côté des victimes que des bourreaux ? La
dichotomie déterminative de la communauté perd-elle tout son sens et
sa raison d’être ? Si eux sont Arméniens, qui sommes-nous nous-mêmes ?
et ainsi de suite…

Dans son article émouvant Ayþe Gül Altýnay explique dans le journal Agos comment

Almost 11,000 Armenians urge Armenian President to ask Russian Presi

Almost 11,000 Armenians urge Armenian President to ask Russian
President to change preventive measure against Levon Hayrapetyan

by Tatevik Shahunyan

ARMINFO
Wednesday, August 6, 12:31

As many as 11,000 people in Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Diaspora
have signed a call on the Armenian President to ask his Russian
counterpart during the planned meeting in Sochi to change the
preventive measure against Armenian businessman Levon Hayrapetyan, who
was detained on July 15 and is supposed to be kept in custody for two
months despite poor health.

On Aug 13 a court in Moscow is supposed to consider a petition to
review the preventive measure against Hayrapetyan.

Levon Hayrapetyan is suspected of being privy to the notorious
Kingisep criminal group. The Russian special services are currently
investigating the case of Sergey-Finagin’s Kingisepp group, which
together with Alexander Matusov’s Schelkovo gang, is believed to have
done a number of contract killings first for businessman Georgy
Safiyev (killed in the United States) and then for former Senator Igor
Izmestyev (who is now in jail for life). And it was Izmestyev who said
that Hayrapetyan was privy to some of the killings, particularly,
those related to the Bashneft oil company.

Paul Goble: For Moscow, Georgia is a tool, Armenia is a way, and Aze

Paul Goble: For Moscow, Georgia is a tool, Armenia is a way, and
Azerbaijan is a prize

by David Stepanyan

ARMINFO
Saturday, August 9, 15:18

For Moscow, Georgia is a tool, Armenia is a way, and Azerbaijan is a
prize, says famous U.S. analyst Paul Goble in an interview with Voice
of America.

According to him, Moscow has found itself in a very complicate
situation and exerts pressure on Yerevan to make it join the Customs
Union. Apparently Russia is on Armenia’s side today and uses Yerevan
for its own goals only. In this light, Armenia, a country that suffers
a dangerous period, should chose long-term rather than momentary
measures to get out of that situation. For lack of good options, Goble
says, Yerevan is reluctant to choose the lesser of the two evils.

Goble blames Moscow for annexing Crimea and warns Armenia to avoid
annexing Karabakh not to face a new war and international isolation.
Nevertheless, Goble blames the West for double standards. According to
him, the West is also responsible for the aggressive policy of Russia.
Nevertheless, Goble predicts sooner changes for Russia, which will
affect the CIS countries.

In this light, Goble says, Armenia must think of its future, which
requires resolution of the Karabakh conflict on the basis of an
agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow does not want the
conflict’s resolution not to lose its levers of pressure on Yerevan.
Paul Goble recommends Armenia not to see Russia as its only ally not
to remain dependent on it for more decades.

Putin To Meet Armenian And Azerbaijani Presidents In Sochi

PUTIN TO MEET ARMENIAN AND AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTS IN SOCHI

Russia Today
Aug 8 2014

The Russian President will hold talks with his colleagues from Armenia
and Azerbaijan on Saturday as relations between the two Transcaucasia
nations have deteriorated in the worst crisis since the beginning of
the century.

According to the plan published on President Vladimir Putin’s web-site,
the Russian leader will meet Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan separately, but both meetings will
be held on the same day in the Southern Russia resort city of Sochi.

The talks with Aliyev will touch upon cooperation between Russia
and Azerbaijan with priority on mutual energy projects, investment
schemes and regional development. The meeting with Sargsyan will be
dedicated to political, trade and cultural cooperation between the
Russian Federation and Armenia with special attention on Armenia’s
planned entry into the Customs Union – the Eurasian economic bloc
uniting Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Earlier this week Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told
reporters that it was possible that President Putin would discuss
the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh at the meetings with
Aliyev and Sargsyan. Tension between the two countries dramatically
escalated earlier this month leading to death of 18 servicemen –
13 Azerbaijanis and five representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic – the unrecognized state populated by ethnical Armenians
and completely surrounded by Azerbaijan.

The new outbreak of violence was denounced by many members of
the international community, including the OSCE Minsk Group on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is co-chaired by Russia, the United
States and France and independently the US State Department and the EU.

The Armenian President’s press service announced on Thursday that Serzh
Sargsyan was ready to take part in a three-sided meeting between the
Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in order to discuss the
current crisis and its possible solutions. Azerbaijan has not yet
officially reacted to the suggestion.

The last key agreement on a peaceful settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict was signed in Moscow in 2008, largely due to Russian
mediation. Then, the leaders of the two nations agreed to continue
high profile talks and instructed their foreign ministers to intensify
negotiations in collaboration with Russia, the United States and
France. Several summits have been held since then, the last one in
Russia in early 2012.

The confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out in 1988 when the
region, mostly populated by Armenians, sought independence from
Azerbaijan and announced its intention to join Armenia. In 1991,
the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was founded. Azerbaijan tried to regain
control over the territory and the conflict escalated into a full-scale
war in which around 30,000 people were killed.

The sides announced a ceasefire in 1994, but never agreed a peace
treaty and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic continues to exist as an
unrecognized state.

http://rt.com/politics/179008-putin-armenia-azerbaijan-sochi/

Combat Rehearsal

COMBAT REHEARSAL

Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 8 2014

8 August 2014 – 10:45am

By Alan Kasayev, head of a sub-department of the MSLU, Candidate of
History. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

The mass combat predicted by the OSCE Minsk Group in Nagorno-Karabakh
has actually happened. Disputes about losses in the most violent clash
on the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line will continue and none of
the sides will publicly agree with the arguments of the other. But
who started the fight does not matter. What matters is that the world
community may face a new challenge, which is in fact an old settled
one, and this challenge may be the last straw that… In general,
God forbid!

In the 1990s, talk about the typology of post-Soviet conflicts
were popular in the arena of political analysis. They would all end
with an admission of the fact that “Comrade Stalin was to blame for
everything.” Nikolai Zlobin, a notable political analyst of the first
decade of this millennium, wrote that the fall of the USSR continued
and that the state borders of 1991 could be reconsidered again. His
hypothesis was somewhat proven in August 2008 when Russia recognized
the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Once again, the
post-Soviet borders changed in spring 2014 when Ukraine lost Crimea
and Russia took it over. But that is when the typological similarities
come to an end.

Potential zones of interstate conflicts in post-Soviet space are not
worth considering as ready for implementation. There is little chance
that the Eurasian Economic Union would turn into a war zone. The price
is too high for the potential “warmongers” and the risk of strong
neighbours in Central Asia in the south and in the east entering the
conflict is too great.

But Nagorno-Karabakh is quite ready for consumption today. Who is
ready to consume it? The authorities of the republic are the primary
force. What is their goal? Occupation of territory is very doubtful,
there are 7 districts of Azerbaijan ready for bargaining… Usurpation
of international political legitimacy is a lot more interesting for
the political elites of Karabakh. Not as part of Russia, of course,
but the idea thrown into the information space is a typical fake. Nor
as part of Armenia, so as to prevent the Armenian state from getting
into a worse situation… But in the case of a new long conflict
with high casualties in Stepanakert, they can hope for much greater
attention from the superpowers. If we imagine that the number of
unrecognized states in the southern sub-region of post-Soviet space
will grow in the future, the chances improve. The most important
thing is to start and withstand the offensive of the Azerbaijani army.

Azerbaijan is interested in a resolution of the Karabakh conflict. The
power and influence of the state have grown in the last decade. The
army has turned into a serious power capable of solving many regional
problems by force. Regaining the territory means strengthening status
even more for Baku but only if military actions succeed. Azerbaijan
does not want a long war: Azerbaijan will make use of time, due to
economic and demographic reasons, the international situation and
economic conjuncture would not favour a war. Baku understands this
and continues stressing diplomatic actions. They are obviously more
successful for Azerbaijan, which remains a real strategic partner of
Russia and does not join any multilateral alliances of the West and
the East.

Armenia is one of the sides of the Karabakh conflict but its economy
is very vulnerable. It could emphasize its value for settlement but
only if it had real levers to affect the military and the economic
pace of the conflict in its hot phase. Such hopes seem dubious.

Evaluating the background of the upcoming talks of the Russian,
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
in Sochi, it is hard to make good forecasts for the meeting.

Rational assessments do not always affect the situation. For example,
there can be such factor as striving for influential regional and
global forces to put the flame of war out in the south-east of
Ukraine as soon as possible. Where should the hundreds of mobilized
militants, including mercenaries going through an active phase
of self-realization, be sent? Maybe the energy of those bellicose
individuals should be focused on a spiritually and territorially
closer hot spot.

http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/58575.html