Today’s Zaman (Turkey)
November 14, 2014 Friday
Nagorno-Karabakh: Words of concern are not enough
by Amanda Paul
The recent downing of an Armenian helicopter, which led to the tragic
loss of three soldiers, has once again underlined that the conflict
between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is a significant
security threat. Not just to Azerbaijan and Armenia, but to the entire
region.
The incident on Nov. 12 was the most serious since the 1994 cease-fire
ended the war that cost some 30,000 lives.
However, two decades on, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces continue to
exchange fire across the line of contact. In August this year, an
unprecedented bout of violence resulted in more than 20 troops killed
on both sides.
Each side has blamed the other for the most recent incident.
Azerbaijan says its positions were under threat with the Azerbaijani
Ministry of Defense stating, An MI-24 combat helicopter attempted to
attack positions of the Azerbaijani army near Karabakh’s Agdam
district.
The helicopter was reportedly a mere 500 meters away. Meanwhile, the
Armenian side says that the helicopter was downed while conducting a
training flight as part of military drills and that the helicopter was
unarmed.
While the European Union has called for an investigation of the
incident, it is unclear precisely how this will be carried out, as
information is scarce and there were no impartial observers. At least
two issues needed to be considered.
The conditions under which this incident took place and why Azerbaijan
shot the helicopter down rather than firing warning shots. Why was
Armenia carrying out such a full-scale three-day military exercise
inside the occupied territories of Azerbaijan? Given that the exercise
was taking place right next to the line of contact, it can be
considered provocative.
The fact that the incident took place a few days after a meeting in
Paris with French President Francois Hollande — France being a
co-chair in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) Minsk Group — where the two sides again committed to a
peaceful solution of the conflict and were requested to resist taking
steps that could further escalate tensions, plaints a very bleak
picture. It also emphasizes once again how ineffective the OSCE-led
peace effort has become.
As some experts on the region have said over the last couple of years,
we have returned to a back to basics policy. Meaning that the OSCE
Minsk Group has basically been focused on maintaining the cease-fire
and the Armenian-Azerbaijani dialogue on the presidential and
ministerial levels.
Yet as the recent incidents show it is not even dong that.The current
mechanism for monitoring the cease-fire is also inadequate, with
Personal Representative of the Chairperson-in-Office on the Conflict
Andrzej Kasprzyk heading up a tiny group of monitors that needs to
notify the two sides and ask permission to visit the line of contact
before going there.
At the time of writing this article, exchanges of fire are ongoing
across the line of contact and over the Armenia-Azerbaijani border
proper Furthermore, Armenia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Artsrun
Hovannisyan has stated, quotThe consequences of this unprecedented
escalation will be very painful for the Azerbaijani side.quot Hence,
there is real concern about retaliation.
According to an article published on Eurasianet titled After
Azerbaijan Shoots Down Helicopter, How Will Armenia Respond? Emil
Sanamyan, the editor of the Armenian Reporter newspaper is quoted
stating that it would likely be a proportionate response, ie, shooting
down an Azerbaijani helicopter also flying close to the line.The
international community needs to be on red alert and immediately beef
up its diplomatic effort.
So far, the response (OSCE, NATO, EU, US, etc.) has been to repeat its
mantra, appealing to both sides to show restraint and avoid steps that
would escalate tension along the line of contact and the
Armenia-Azerbaijan border, remain calm and pursue a diplomatic
solution.
Unfortunately, expressing quotconcernquot in diplomatic language has
become nothing but empty words in real terms.Yes, we can agree that
the main responsibility for the resolution of the conflict remains in
the hands of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents, yet at the same
time the international community has a responsibility to do more than
issue empty statements.
US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki has talked of the need to
redouble efforts. I hope these words will be transformed into concrete
actions before it’s too late.