Author: Badalian Vardan

RUSSIAN POLITICAL EXPERT: ARMENIA HAS LESS CHANCES TO WIN IN CASE MILITARY ACTION IS RESUMED
H. Hamidov

Today
2210.html
Feb 22 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with renowned Russian journalist, political expert
and publicist Leonid Radzikhovski.

Some say the recent letter Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan
addressed to his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul marked a new page
in development of Armenia-Turkey relations. Do you share this opinion?

I do not think that now we are seeing a cardinal or a radical approach
by Yerevan to improve relations with Ankara. I understand that the
main point involved here is for Armenia to make significant concessions
to Turkey …

As it is known, these concessions imply certain steps by Armenia to
normalize ties with Turkey being well aware that Turkey will take
such a step after Armenia makes major steps in terms of settlement
of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict…

This is what I’m talking about. I do not believe Yerevan will easily
take steps to withdraw from at least part of the occupied areas. In
this case, there is a fundamental myth of the Armenian leadership
based on which the whole political elite of the country fails. It is
absolutely unclear why they needed to wage a war in Karabakh and how
all the Armenian leaders, who o are people from Karabakh ne way or
another, reached power in Armenia? Abandoning the idea of capturing
Karabagh for them is akin to a denial of "genocide" of Armenians.

These are basic ideas for them.

Do you think Turkey may establish diplomatic ties with Armenia based
solely on its own interests without setting liberation of Azerbaijan’s
occupied lands as a precondition?

This is a different matter, and, of course, Armenia would be pleased
at this turn of events.

May Ankara eventually choose that option?

I do not see sufficient motivation to Turkey to do so. After all,
such a step would mean severely damaged relations with Azerbaijan. And
what else, besides this, they will get in return?

Maybe early admission to the European Union.

I do not think that Turkey’s EU membership is directly connected with
the opening of borders with Armenia …

For example, Armenia will not demand recognition of the "genocide"
and will stop promoting its recognition in the U.S. and Turkey will
no longer insist on withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s lands.

In this context, the question must be considered from several aspects.

"Genocide" recognition is a painful fact for Turkey. But it is less
painful than for the Armenians to return Karabakh. Moreover, the
"genocide" can be recognized with various reservations, wording.

But I do not think that Turkey would open the border without any
preconditions on Karabakh, because I do not believe that it is going
to spoil relations with Azerbaijan. If Ankara was confident that the
opening of the border with Armenia is directly linked with the EU
accession, it would perhaps have done it simultaneously bargaining
some compensations from the international community for Azerbaijan.

I doubt that Turkey’s all problems with the EU are related to the
Armenian border. It has a number of other problems. This is the Cyprus
problem and many others.

So, we should not expect the Armenia-Turkey border to open any
time soon?

I think so. Looking from the side, I do not believe that it is possible
to open the border until Armenia makes significant steps in settlement
of Karabakh conflict. I also do not believe Armenia would take those
steps because, as I said above, in this case entire ruling elite of
Armenia will hang in the air.

The last trilateral meeting between the presidents does not inspire
optimism about progress in the Karabakh conflict settlement. In
addition, Armenian FM Edward Nalbandian has announced that no tangible
results on this matter is expected this year.

There is no optimism because there is no progress. I reiterated that
there are no more solutions to the problem. There are only two: Armenia
will return Karabakh or will not. In my opinion, no compensation will
be helpful. The question of land has been acute at all times. In the
case of Armenia … its statehood began with the war in Karabakh. This
was the first step towards the attainment of identity, independence
and statehood. How then to give up Karabakh? ..

Do you mean use of force is the only way to solve the conflict?

Lately, there have been more and more talks about war in the region.

In principle, Azerbaijan has long announced that its patience is
running out. Suddenly Armenia also began talking about military action
on its part. U.S. intelligence in his report also does not preclude
a military conflict …

Well, I do not know … In fact, Azerbaijan has acquired great strength
in recent years. Among all the CIS countries, Azerbaijan has done great
success in recent years. This situation excludes a military solution
to the conflict. When things are bad in the country, there is nothing
to lose. Military action in this case can help save the prestige of
the ruling elite. When the country is developing at fast pace and
attracts loans and population is happy with the state policy, it is
difficult to begin military action. This is the case with Azerbaijan.

Well, why Armenia needs to attack Azerbaijan? They have already
captured Karabakh. What will they occupy next?

In addition, this is not 1990s. In the case of military conflict,
Armenia’s has little chances of success. Azerbaijan has become
stronger. The balance of forces in Azerbaijan’s favor.

On the other hand, it seems to me that it is not the best solution
to start a war and risk all economic achievements of recent years.

Recently Israeli FM was given a warm reception in Baku amid the
traditional hostile relations between Iran and Israel and recent
cooling in Turkey-Israel ties. In your opinion, is Israeli FM’s
visit a move to show that Azerbaijan pursues independent policy in
response Turkey’s move to mend relations with Armenia, or just a
planned official visit?

I am sure that neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan is interested in cooling
of relations. It should again be noted that Azerbaijan has changed
very much in recent years and became a very powerful state in the
region. Of course, its opportunities are incompatible with those of
Turkey, but still is one of the most powerful states in the region.

Apart from this, one should not forget about the relationship between
the Azerbaijani and Turkish peoples.

Azerbaijan pursues balanced foreign policy. I do not think Israeli
FM’s visit to Azerbaijan should spark Turkey’s anger. In the end,
Azerbaijan is an independent country, and it is free to choose friends
and partners. But Iran is, of course, extremely unpleasant.

As for Israel, it is extremely interested in developing relations
with Azerbaijan both for economic and political reasons. Moreover,
normal relations with any Muslim country is important for Israel.

I do not believe that Baku intends to annoy Tehran by its moves. It
leads its own policies. Besides, as I understand it, Azerbaijan’s
leadership wants to develop a secular country and at the same time
interested in developing relations with various countries, regardless
of religious or other beliefs. In this sense, relations with Israel
are also symbolic in nature. After all, it once again emphasizes
independent foreign policy of the country which is not afraid of
discontent of any country.

MOTHERS OF VICTIMS OF MARCH 1 WERE BEATEN

16904.html
15:00:54 – 20/02/2010

The police again clamped down on the participants of the weekly march
of protest organized by the opposition, the Armenian National
Congress. Yesterday’s march was held to condemn the rigged election of
February 19, 2008′.

During the march which took place yesterday the mothers of the victims
of the events following the election 2008 became the target of
violence, who participated in yesterday’s march, holding the pictures
of their sons.

Jemma Vardumyan, the mother of Davit Petrosyan who was killed on March
1, told the red berets had pushed her causing her to fall to the
ground.

`Sitting on the ground, I was thinking how we can deliver our youth
from these brazen ones. They didn’t allow the march to proceed. Why,
we weren’t doing harm to anyone, were we?’

Ms. Jemma says, `I participated in the march for the sake of my killed
son, for violating the rights of a mother, my rights, for torturing
me. They killed my son… I am sick but today nobody has compassion for
me, how long are you, the government, going to last, one day you will
get to your end too.’

Alla Hovanisyan, the mother of Tigran Khachatryan who also got killed
on March 1, got a strong punch in the face.

`Someone hit me very strongly with his fist, my lip is swollen, I
don’t know who hit me, but we have his photo, and soon we will know
which policeman it was.’

Alla Hovanisyan says they tried to prevent the red berets from
kidnapping the youths. `I am not afraid of policemen, I am not afraid
of the red berets, I am not afraid of getting killed.’

A number of photos and footages have been taken, picturing the
clampdown of the police.

Aravot, Armenia
Feb 17 2010

Armenian pressure group against compromises in Karabakh problem

A leader of an Armenian pressure group has urged President Serzh
Sargsyan to step up diplomatic efforts to retain control over
Azerbaijani breakaway Karabakh region.

Addressing the Armenian president, the re-elected head of the
Yerkrapah Union of Volunteers (YUV), Gen Manvel Grigoryan, said that
"we proved that both Karabakh and those territories [currently
Armenian-controlled territories around Nagornyy Karabakh] are ours",
pro-opposition Aravot daily reported on 17 February.

Speaking at the session of the union on 16 February, Grigoryan said
Armenian should neither make concessions nor cede territories in the
Karabakh issue, the paper added.

Against the backdrop of growing rift in the pressure group, Grigoryan
called for unity among members of the union to prevent further
aggravations in the country, added the same source.

Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan at the session also called on
members of the union to unite around Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan, Aravot reported.

Pro-opposition members of the YUV board, including former MP Myasnik
Malkhasyan, were not re-elected at the session, according to the
paper. YUV members, who support former Armenian President and
currently leader of the pro-opposition Armenian national Congress,
Levon Ter-Petrosyan, did not attend the session, Aravot reported.

TEN COMMERCIAL BANKS WILLING TO PARTICIPATE IN THE "APARTMENTS FOR YOUTH" PROGRAM
Nelly Danielyan

"Radiolur"
19.02.2010 16:58

10 commercial banks of Armenia have expressed readiness to participate
in the "Apartments for Youth" program, Chairman of Union of Armenian
Banks Ararat Ghukasyan told a press conference today. The mortgage
program will start functioning within the coming weeks.

Executive Director of the National Mortgage Company Mher Yedigaryan
noted that the banks will undergo checks and if they meet the
requirements, they will gain the right to participate in the program.

The maximum volume of credit within the framework of "Apartments for
Youth" program makes 16mln AMD, given 30% of prepayment and interest
rate of 8.5%-9%. Banks will issue credits at the interest rate of
10.5%-11%, 2% of which will be subsidized by the state.

COMMUNITIES TO CONDUCT ALL ADMINISTRATION RELATED TO PROPERTY AND LAND TAXES, ARMENIA’S DEPUTY MINISTER OF TERRITORIAL ADMINISTRATION SAYS

Noyan Tapan
Feb 19, 2010

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 19, NOYAN TAPAN. "Both property tax and land tax
are local taxes, so all the administration related to them will
be conducted as mandatory authority by a community, that is by
local self-government bodies," RA Deputy Minister of Territorial
Administration Vatche Terterian said at the February 19 press
conference, when speaking about the new tax package submitted by the
Armenian government to the RA National Assembly. The package includes
a list of 8 new local taxes.

V. Terterian said that the community head is responsible for the
collection of land and property taxes making a considerable part
of internal revenues of a community budget. "In other words, they
should ensure efficient administration and have the opportunity to
communicate with unfair tax payers, to use penalties and fines,
if necessary also apply to court," the deputy minister noted. In
his words, they try to give efficient administrative mechanisms to
communities so that the latter as state government bodies can control
the community head and make inquiries in case when internal revenues
of the community budget are not ensured and normal activity of the
community is called into question.

As for criticism by ARF faction members who say that communities are
not prepared yet for such changes, V. Terterian said: "There are
communities whose work is far from being satisfactory for society
and us, so with the use of some mechanisms, we should make them work
efficiently in order to improve the situation."

To recap, the bill on amendments to the RA Law on Taxes proposes
establishing 10 local taxes, including property tax and land tax
as compulsory ones. The use and rates of the 8 other taxes will
be determined by the community council on the community head’s
recommendation.

ARMENIAN-TURKISH PROTOCOLS TO BE DISCUSSED TOMORROW
Siranush Muradyan

"Radiolur"
18.02.2010 17:22

The Foreign Relations Committee of the National Assembly will start
considering the Armenian-Turkish protocols tomorrow, Chairman of the
Committee, representative of ARF Dashnaktsutyun Armen Rustamyan told
a press conference today.

"We’ll apply to the Speaker of the National Assembly, asking to hold
discussions in the Parliament only after the protocols are considered
in the Foreign Relations Committee," Armen Rustamyan said.

Another representative of ARF Dashnaktsutyun Ara Nranyan says the
pressures on Armenia connected with the Karabakh issue have increased,
and today Armenia has two options – to sign a document on Nagorno
Karabakh or ratify the protocols first.

RAZMIK AMYAN WILL NEVER AGAIN PARTICIPATE IN EUROVISION

Tert.am
13:16 ~U 16.02.10

Apparently, it’s not only Emmy and Mihran (and their agent) who are
disgruntled with the results of the final selection for Armenia’s
entry in the 2010 Eurovision Song Contest.

Armen Movsisyan, representing Razmik Amyan, also a contender for the
Armenian entry in this year’s Eurovision, told Tert.am today that he,
too, is not content with the results of SMS voting.

While speaking to Tert.am, Movsisyan said that he believes that
numerous text messages were not counted as they were blocked, though
the senders were charged for those messages. According to Movsisyan,
this is what Razmik Amyan’s fans have said.

In an attempt to back up his claim, Movsisyan said that some 12,000
people were present at Amyan’s last concert. He also said that voting
by SMS is a meaningless measure, for which money is being spent.

Nevertheless, Razmik Amyan’s producer said that they’re not going to
organize any protests – nor are they going to appeal the results.

"Razmik Amyan will never [again] take part in Eurovision’s preliminary
round; however, if asked to do so, he will take part in Eurovision
[meaning, if he were asked to represent Armenia]," concluded Movsisyan.

DAVID SHAGINIAN AGAIN WINS AT AEROFLOT OPEN 2010 CHAMPS

Aysor
Feb 15 2010
Armenia

After round four of the International Chess Festival Aeroflot Open
2010, Vietnam’s Kang Lim and Nguyen Ngoc Truong at 3,5 points lead
the championship in the Tournament A1.

Armenia’s Arman Pashikian, Hrant Melkumian, and Sergey Grigoriants are
at 2,5 points each; Gabriel Sarkisian is at 2 points; Zaven Andriasian
earned 1,5 points.

Artur Gabrielian at 3 points is one of the leaders of Tournament A2,
and is half a point behind the leader. Tigran Kotanjian, David G.

Petrosian, and Melikset Khachiyan earned 2 points.

Six rounds are over in Tournament B bringing 4 points to Tigran
Simonian, who is half a point behind leaders.

16-year-old David Shaginian keeps on winning in Tournament C and
becomes the top-leader with victories in all six games.

HARSH CRITICISM PART OF FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION

BIA Net
Feb 15 2010
Turkey

The Judicial Office decreed to account journalist Mustafa Balbay’s
pronouncement as part of freedom of expression, regarding his reference
to Prof. Baskın Oran as an example of "bought-out intellectuals". The
comment was assessed as "harsh criticism".

Erol ONDEROÄ~^LU [email protected] Ankara – BÄ°A News Center15 February
2010, Monday The Court of Appeals 4th Judicial Office decreed to
account journalist Mustafa Balbay’s pronouncement referring to Prof.

Baskın Oran as part of freedom of expression. Balbay had said "Buying
out the spirit of Turkish intellectuals, journalists and writers is
a very serious strategy", giving Oran as an example.

The Judicial Office assessed Balbay’s comment as a reaction to articles
written by Oran for Armenian Agos newspaper on the Armenian question.

In a talk show broadcasted by ART television on 26 November 2006
hosted by Emin CölaÅ~_an, Balbay said, "Money is paid to contribute
to the division of Turkey in the name of freedom of thought and press".

The journalist added, "This is a crucial situation. This is buying out
the spirit of Turkish intellectuals, journalists and writers… This
is a very serious strategy. Right now I am talking to some of them…

They used to be different people, how did they become like this now I
wonder. I do not like polemics but if I have to name somebody it is
Prof. Dr. Baskın Oran, a person who is currently receiving special
education in the UK".

On 5 November 2009, the Court of Appeals overruled the decision of
the Ankara 16th Criminal Court of First Instance from 6 May 2008
regarding a 3,500 Turkish Lira (TL) compensation fine. The latest
decision was communicated only recently.

Freedom of thought for writer and critic likewise Prof. Baskın Oran
was invited to St. Anthony’s College of Oxford University between
October and December 2006 for research and six conferences on Turkey.

The Court of Appeals reasoned its decision related to Oran as follows:

"According to the content of the file, the complainant wrote articles
for Agos newspaper concerning the Armenian question and carried out
academic studies abroad. In the scope of this case publishing as
a whole was reviewed. We came to the conclusion that the complaint
is about one part of a speech which was held as a reaction to the
articles written by the complainant for Agos newspaper and in line
with the then current topics. If the complainant is free to declare
his thoughts as an academic, he should also accept harsh criticism
against such thoughts. If the defendant’s speech is evaluated as a
whole, the criticism stays within the legislative protection and does
not constitute an attack on the complainant’s individual rights."

The Judicial Office and the Court of Appeals Criminal and Law
General Council had also been subject to reaction with their previous
decisions. Those decisions included sentencing writer Orhan Pamuk
to compensation for saying "On this region 30 thousand Kurds and
1 million Armenians have been killed", sentencing journalist Fatih
Altaylı to a minimum compensation by reason of his statement "I am
a coward if I don’t sexually abuse him the first instance I see him"
referring to lawyer Eren Keskin, and deciding to account Keskin’s
statements about journalist Nadire Mater with insulting content as
"within criticism".

EU SHOOTS ITSELF IN THE FOOT ON ENERGY

Hurriyet
Feb 14 2010
Turkey

In almost any area of political or social endeavor, the topic of
energy is becoming increasingly fundamental. Energy policy and
politics drive so much that, at first glance, they might not seem
specifically relevant.

Energy is at the root of virtually all of Turkey’s environmental
debates and disputes. Decisions on which dam to build or which strategy
to embrace for protecting the Bosphorus against shipping disasters
are inherently matters about energy.

Engage any agricultural expert in a discussion on the woes of the
farming industry, and he or she will say commodity prices are down
and input prices are up. What this conversation too is really about
is energy.

Little needs to be said, of course, about the role of energy in the
wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Meanwhile the specter of climate change
threatens our very existence and an accord to do anything about it
remains elusive. An election in Ukraine, a set of protocols before
Armenia’s parliament, a regional referendum on the status of the
northern Iraqi city of Mosul… in the final analysis, these are all
energy discussions.

The element of energy in Turkey’s ongoing accession talks with the
European Union is almost the perfect metaphor to capture the state of
the entire negotiation. We have long argued that these negotiations
proceed amid an asymmetrical perspective. In most European capitals,
EU membership for Turkey is seen as sort of a good deed, a gesture
of magnanimity. If there is a benefit for the rest of Europe, it
is limited to the domestication of a country that otherwise risks
getting out of hand in terms of its population, religion or migration.

That Turkey’s membership is inherently a good – if not a better –
deal for the existing EU societies is an argument that falls flat. It
falls flat even in Italy, a country that will actually cease to exist
in about 120 years if population trends continue at their current rate.

That this poverty of vision defines so much thinking in Brussels or
Strasbourg is, of course, frustrating. That European leaders have by
and large failed to define, let along articulate, their own strategic
self-interest vis-a-vis Turkey is a sad statement on the age. But one
would think one element of reason to be extracted from this irrational
morass would be the energy relationship between Turkey and the EU.

>From the prospective Nabucco or South Stream gas pipelines to the
existing Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, to ongoing petroleum explorations
by Norway’s Statoil on the Black Sea to the tanker traffic flowing
through Europe’s largest city… it’s all about energy.

And yet, as our reporter Döndu SarıÅ~_ık wrote in our weekend
edition, the "energy chapter," the most important pillar in the
negotiation architecture, is closed at the behest of Greek Cyprus
and is likely to remain so.

Such shortsightedness is hardly a threat to Turkey’s energy security.

It is, however, one to that of the EU.