COMMENTARY: POLITICAL STALEMATE IN AND AROUND ARMENIA
By Edmond Y. Azadian
September 9, 2011
Ever since the negotiations between the ruling coalition and the
opposition came to a grinding halt, Armenia has entered into a
period of domestic political stalemate. There was already a stalemate
externally with its neighbors, with Karabagh’s unending negotiations
going nowhere, the Protocols being shelved by the Turkish parliament
and love/hate relationships continuing with Georgia.
Armenia’s cab drivers constitute the most sensitive political pulse
of the country. As soon as one gets into a cab, the driver has a
political speech ready for the passenger, beginning with the soaring
food and fuel prices and ending with a diatribe against the oligarchs
who are plundering the country.
But these days, cab drivers are ominously silent, possibly
indicating the hopelessness of the situation. These worries seem
to be concentrated on the option of finding a country which can
accept their children for education or job opportunities. When the
government coalition and the opposition decided to begin several rounds
of negotiations, the opposition was losing steam and the government
had run out of alternatives. They both needed each other.
Although negotiations were supposed to be secret, both sides were
leaking positive stories regarding the developments.
The opposition was running out of steam because of the defections
of some of its elite members who were joining the Free Democrats
movement, whose platform had yet to be defined. On the opposite end,
more radical elements, which favored a violent overthrow of the
government, were disillusioned with opposition leader and former
President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s recent moderate and rational approach.
On the other hand, the government coalition was running into disarray,
after the defection of the ARF and rising tensions between President
Serge Sargisian’s Republican Party and former President Robert
Kocharian’s Prosperous Armenia Party. Although the latter’s leader,
Gagik Zaroukian, had signed an agreement to participate jointly in
the upcoming elections, other leaders indicated otherwise – that the
party may run on its own ticket.
Thus, fractious infighting that had weakened the two opposing groups
had paved the way for the opponents to start negotiations.
The opposition had set some manageable conditions to pave the way
for negotiations, and the government met those conditions.
The main topic on the agenda was immediate elections. But, in fact,
both parties knew deep down that premature elections were out of
the question. The government was gaining time and the opposition
was insisting on early elections. Yet in fact, the negotiations were
about the future shape of the government. Sargisian was probing his
opponents to see what percentage of the opposition representation in
the next parliament would guarantee his reelection.
Outside the framework of these negotiations, a realignment of other
forces is taking place. Robert Kocharian is playing the gray cardinal
in Armenian politics. When his two-term presidency expired, he tried
to imitate his master, Vladimir Putin, by electing his protege,
Serge Sargisian, with the understanding that after his first term
Sargisian would cede his seat to Kocharian. But Sargisian does not
seem ready to give in. Thus Kocharian is watching the developments
grudgingly while planning his own coalition with the ARF and perhaps
with the help of former minister of foreign affairs, Vartan Oskanian,
who is ready to publish his own paper and form a new party.
Should the negotiations yield some serious results, Kocharian may
take more assertive steps to plan his comeback.
But the negotiations were halted for rather insignificant reasons:
some young activists of the opposition were incarcerated, six of them
were released. One still remains in jail, offering an excuse for the
opposition to interrupt the negotiations. Ter- Petrosian is planning
a new rally on September 9 at Liberty Square. Some extreme elements
believe that all hell will break loose on that day. But given the
precedents, Ter-Petrosian may present a conditional ultimatum, to
satisfy his followers and to have the coalition fulfill his conditions.
Currently, it seems that both sides are trying to gain more time and
to size up their interlocutors.
In the meantime, the government is in no panic. There are ample
opportunities for diversions; first came the 20th anniversary of
Karabagh’s independence, which was celebrated with great fanfare.
Next, Armenia will celebrate its own 20th anniversary, with even
greater flourish.
It seems that after the dust settles, following the political rally
and anniversary celebrations, the two sides will find a way for modus
vivendi and gear for the upcoming parliamentary and presidential
elections.
Whether the negotiations resume or not, or whether they yield
any results, people do not pin many hopes on the outcome of those
negotiations.
There is a general apathy, which is very dangerous. People are
looking for a way out of the country. That’s even more serious that
any political stalemate.