Author: Badalian Vardan

If Serzh Makes Wrong Choice

HAKOB BADALYAN

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 23:42:41 – 17/12/2011

Some members of parliament running businesses announced that they will
not run in the next elections. What helped Serzh Sargsyan persuade
those members of parliament not to run in the elections? Or did he
simply instruct them not to run for parliament?

There is an opinion that Sargsyan cannot give such instructions to the
oligarchs because they will turn back and tear him to parts. In
addition, this opinion is dominant regarding other issues related to
the oligarchs. For instance, the real struggle against the oligopoly
is considered as hardly possible because the oligarchy will turn back
and tear them to pieces.

This is an important issue. Is Serzh Sargsyan the prisoner of the
`oligarchs’ or are they the `hostage’ of the government? Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, for instance, announced that the oligarchy is the
hostage of the government. It is not absolutely true, of course, but
independent from the political motives and context, in the long run,
the oligarchy is the `hostage’ of the government.

So the government is able to solve the problem of oligarchy, set this
segment in another setting, that of the liberal rules, set them equal
before the law, eliminate the economic, political and physical
privileges of the oligarchic class. The question is who the government
is, and whether Serzh Sargsyan is the government.

The fact that he is trying to be government is obvious. But the
question is how he is trying and why. Is he trying to subject the
oligarchy fully and forming his own team of oligarchs or is he trying
to be the government to promote reforms declared by him?

In Armenia, very few people believe that Serzh Sargsyan can be
committed to reforms, believe in democratic and liberal values to
underlie the rule of law in Armenia. And their doubts are justified
because Serzh Sargsyan has not proven the opposite yet. On the other
hand, democratic reforms in Armenia do not suppose that the
implementer or leader must be truly democratic and a genuine reformer.
The point is that the systemic crisis in Armenia has reached the point
of being unbearable, and he will have to implement reforms about which
he announced at international rostrums, even though he does not
believe it. His personal interest requires it, the instinct of
self-protection.

For many people, the situation grew unbearable very rapidly, for
others quite unexpectedly. But the system in Armenia expired too soon
because it coincided with the expiry of the world system, and it was
inevitable.

And the international crisis accelerated the systemic collapse of
Armenia. The only way out is reforms.

Serzh Sargsyan must establish his rule by the instinct of
self-preservation to be able to promote reforms. No doubt he is trying
to draft a scheme of succession of actions, seeking support to
establish his rule. `Help me establish my rule to go on to carry out
reforms,’ Serzh Sargsyan seems to tell the international society.

It is obvious that his words are accepted, and he is supported to
establish his rule. Serzh Sargsyan may expect that after establishing
his rule he will be able to persuade the West and avoid reforms.

But Sargsyan must be aware of hopelessness of this expectation. The
West supports him to establish his rule, considering the parliamentary
elections of 2012 as a key haven but keep the mechanisms which will
neutralize Serzh Sargsyan’s rule in a single minute, and power will go
to either Ter-Petrosyan or Kocharyan.

The point is that if no reforms will be held in Armenia, if Sargsyan
fails to keep his commitments for which he gets support, Armenia may
be controlled better through Ter-Petrosyan, and especially Kocharyan,
so the meaning of supporting Sargsyan will disappear both for the West
and Russia.

The role of Armenia in new geopolitical and economic developments
depends essentially on the democratic transition and establishment of
the rule of law. If this happens, it means that Armenia gets down to
the performance of its role. If not, it means that Serzh Sargsyan
fails to perform his role, and Serzh Sargsyan must leave, otherwise
Armenia will be removed from the map.

No doubt the West will not wish Armenia to leave, otherwise it would
not make so much effort toward reforms. Moreover, the society will not
wish Armenia’s removal from global scenarios. Consequently, in case
Sargsyan tries to stop halfway and waive its role, the public and
international consensus will inevitably push his removal.

Big choice complicates choice. Serzh Sargsyan does not have a big
choice, so his choice will not be difficult. For him, the consequence
of the wrong choice may be complicated.

POLITICIAN SEES PARALLELS BETWEEN RUSSIAN BILLIONAIRE MIKHAIL PROKHOROV, ARMENIA’S GAGIK TSARUKYAN

epress.am
12.16.2011

Armenian authorities, in a moral sense, are doing something very
wrong, but they’re doing that which is the law of power, said New
Times party leader Aram Karapetyan, today at a press conference in
the Armenian capital.

“The authorities say, you want to be opposition, go ahead, no problem,
withdraw from everything, become opposition and let them hit you with
shock too, get you hospitalized, come with 40 people and arrest you,
take you, shoot in the air – either like this or like that. Well
how did you imagine it – eat well, drink well, present well, have
a TV station, have ministers, have marzpets [regional governors],
have business opportunities, make use of government leverage and
along with this, be opposition?”

According to him, otherwise how could it have been discovered in one
day that three people on the Prosperous Armenia party ticket strolled
with drugs in their pockets.

To explain his argument, the Armenian party leader cited Russian
businessman Mikhail Prokhorov (considered to be opposition), who,
according to Karapetyan, cannot be considered a serious oppositionist.

“Prokhorov asked the Kremlin for no more than 5 days to isolate his
Right Cause party. Any oligarch, who would dare to go against the
authorities, would be punished with the most severe measures applied
by the authorities; thus, no one would have the courage to make that
move,” he said.

Speaking about “the Prokhorov equivalent,” Armenian oligarch,
Prosperous Armenia party leader Gagik Tsarukyan (pictured), Karapetyan
assured, “If Gagik Tsarukyan were to become opposition, the Armenian
authorities would seize the Prosperous Armenia party from him in one
to two days, whereas the Kremlin did this in five days.”

‘THERE WAS NO LONGER AN EYE’ TO SAVE: WHY JUNIOR OFFICER THREW HIS KEYS AT KARABAKH ARMY CONSCRIPT

epress.am
12.16.2011

It will take 10 to 15 days for Narek Avetisyan to recover from his
eye surgery, Georgy Grigoryan, head of the Vascular Disease Department
at the Ophthalmological Center named after S. Malayan, told Epress.am.

Right now, the young man is doing better and his friends have begun
to come visit him.

Recall, according to Yerevan-based Helsinki Association for Human
Rights, Avetisyan’s right eye was knocked out on Dec. 14 from a blow
by junior officer Armen Tovmasyan who threw his keys at him at the
mess hall of the Yeghnikner military base in Nagorno Karabakh where
the young man was stationed during his mandatory military service.

According to the human rights organization, when the 18-year-old
conscript was taken to the hospital in Stepanakert, the junior officer
visited him, persuading him to say that he (Tovmasyan) threw a pair
of keys at Avetisyan but the latter was unable to catch them and
they hit his eye instead. The reason for Tovmasyan throwing the keys
in the first place reportedly was that the junior officer asked the
young conscript to take the current (cleaning) shift at the cafeteria,
which Avetisyan apparently refused, saying he just spent 2 weeks in
the field and had walked 20 kilometers.

>From the Stepanakert hospital, the young patient was moved to the
Malayan eye center where he underwent surgery yesterday. Grigoryan
said they were unable to save the young boy’s eye because “there
was no longer an eye,” the blow was that strong. Doctors removed
Avetisyan’s right eye, placing a temporary prosthetic instead so
that in future, he might try to undergo plastic surgery and have a
permanent prosthetic in place. It will move, but of course, the young
man will never be able to see from that eye.

Note, the Republic of Armenia Ministry of Defense earlier informed
local daily Haykakan Jamanak (“Armenian Times”) that a criminal case
under charges of “abuse of authority” has been launched.

Photo courtesy of Helsinki Association of Human Rights.

ARA ABRAHAMYAN AND SAMVEL KARAPETYAN – LAUREATES OF “MAN OF THE YEAR-2011” AWARDING

ARMENPRESS
DECEMBER 16, 2011
YEREVAN

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 16, ARMENPRESS: Chairman of the Union of Armenians
of Russia and World Armenian Congress Ara Abrahamyan and Chairman of
“Tashir” company Samvel Karapetyan have been recognized laureates of
“Man of the Year-2011” national awarding. The Union of Armenians of
Russia told Armenpress that the awarding ceremony was held in “The
Savior” church, Moscow.

“Man of the Year-2011” has been established in 1993. The more worthy
citizens of Russia and foreign states, who have made outstanding
contribution to development of Russia in the spheres pf politics,
religion, economy, science, education, culture, medicine and innovative
production, are awarded with this diploma and silver cross.

Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia His Holiness Kirill, Russian Prime
Minister Vladmir Putin, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin and others are
among the laureates of “Man of the Year-2011” national awarding.

TURKS SECRETLY LISTENING TO AZNAVOUR MUSIC

PanARMENIAN.Net
December 16, 2011 – 17:11 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Turkish Posta daily’s representative Hakan Celik
reported an amusing incident which occurred during a traditional
meeting of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leaders.

During MHP’s news conference in Ankara’s Shraton Hotel, world-known
Armenian chansonnier Charles Aznavour’s “Hier Encore” was played in
the background.

“The nationalists would have been rather uneasy, did they recognize
the singer known for his harsh political views,” Celik noted.

MILITARY-PATRIOTIC UPBRINGING UNDER THE LIMELIGHT OF MINISTRIES OF DEFENSE AND EDUCATION

ARMENPRESS
DECEMBER 16, 2011
YEREVAN

Armenian ministers of defense and education and science summed up
today the passing year at the “Issues of Military-Patriotic upbringing
of the Growing Generation and ways of their Solution” conference
conducted in the new building of Matenadaran. Minister of Defense
Seyran Ohanyan noted that thanks to collaborative efforts success
has been registered during the recent years. Ministries of defense,
education and science are leading establishments interested in the
patriotic upbringing, Seyran Ohanyan said.

Minister of Education and Science Armen Ashotyan said the issue of
military-patriotic upbringing preserves its up-to-datedness even during
the development of the society. He noted that the defense, spiritual
and education systems are mainly being attacked in the information
wars. “Our goal is to protect these systems as much as possible. We
will not allow our generations to divert from the systems taking to
the formation of a complete citizen,” Ashotyan said.

NKR Education and Science Minister Vladik Khachatryan highlighted the
patriotic upbringing among the young people. “We are a country that
saw a war, it is necessary to make joint efforts,” the minister noted.

The minister said it is necessary to start patriotic upbringing from
low grades.

CIRCLE OF SUPPOSED CRIMINALS ON ARTAK NAZARYAN’S CASE IS ALREADY KNOWN

arminfo
Friday, December 16, 15:06

The circle of the supposed criminals on Lieutenant of Armenian Armed
Forces Artak Nazaryan’s case, killed in the army, is already known but
not made public for the benefit of investigation, the lawyer of the
Nazaryan’s family, Ruben Martirosyan, said at today’s press-conference.

He also added that he directed many applications to the prosecutor
general with a request to initiate a criminal case, but the prosecutor
general did not do that and directed the applications to the court.

“Our applications were directed to the court which actually does not
have powers to initiate a criminal case. And prosecutor Harutyun
Harutyunyan hinders impartial investigation of the case”, – the
lawyer said.

To recall, Artak Nazaryan was killed on 27 July 2010 at the military
position “Gozlu”. The preliminary investigation in the Investigation
Service of Armenian Defence Ministry ended and the case qualified
like “stimulation of suicide” was directed to the court. Meanwhile,
Artak Nazaryan’s relatives insist on wrong holding of the preliminary
investigation up to falsification of facts.

TROUBLE IN THE REGION: RUSSIAN MILITARY BASE IN ARMENIA AS FACTOR IN POSSIBLE WAR ON IRAN
By Naira Hayrumyan

ArmeniaNow correspondent
16.12.11 | 14:20

The United States has stepped up sanctions against Iran amid ongoing
information preparations for the possible application of force against
Iran. Both the Islamic Republic and Russia, which remains a major
player in the region, have warned that a military strike against
Teheran may entail unpredictable consequences.

But Russia has gone further and, in fact, stated that it will take
part in the possible war, because it may affect its vital interests.

Among these ‘vitally interests’ for Russia may also be its military
base, which is located in Armenia and which also has the functions
of protecting the security of the South Caucasus ally.

The influential Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper published
an article on Thursday quoting sources as saying that the situation
forming around Syria and Iran “causes Russia to expedite the course of
improvement of its military groups in the South Caucasus, the Caspian,
Mediterranean and Black Sea regions.” The paper quotes sources at the
military department as saying that the Kremlin has been receiving
information about plans for a U.S.-backed Israeli strike against
Iran’s nuclear facilities. “The strike will be a sudden one and will
happen soon, but the data is unspecified. Tehran’s response is likely
to be quick, too, with the possibility of a full-scale war, whose
consequences could be unpredictable,” the Russian newspaper writes.

“Military base 102 [situated in Gyumri, Armenia] is a key point,
Russia’s outpost in the South Caucasus. It occupies a very important
geopolitical position. But the Kremlin fears lest it should lose this
situation,” the periodical adds.

Remarkably, the Russian newspaper suggests a new war is possible
between Russia and Georgia. It says that Georgia now blocks the only
land transportation route for Russian military cargoes meant for the
military base in Armenia, and even fuel now has to be obtained from
Iran. “In fact, the Russian-Armenian group in the South Caucasus is
already isolated. The war in Iran would mean the cutting of supplies
through this channel.”

Russia has also decided to “strike” Azerbaijan, dropping hints that
it is from its territory that Israel might attack Iran. On Thursday
it was officially stated in Baku that Azerbaijan will not be used
as a springboard for an attack on Iran. But military expert Colonel
Vladimir Popov thinks that in such a situation Azerbaijan may also
solve some of its problems as well.

“If against the background of the war in Iran, Azerbaijan, with the
support of Turkey, attacks Armenia, then, of course, all the attacks of
the enemy aircraft against Armenia will be resisted by Russia together
with air defense units of the armed forces of Armenia. It is hard
to say whether this will be considered as Moscow’s participation in
military operations. Undoubtedly, Russian troops will not participate
in hostilities in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. But in the
event of a military threat to Armenia, for example, from Turkey or
Azerbaijan, Russia is likely to engage in ground battles,” says Popov.

SERZH’S WEAPON IS HIS LONELINESS
Hayk Aramyan

Story from Lragir.am News:

Published: 12:51:16 – 16/12/2011

Serzh Sargsyan is alone, completely alone with his coalition,
opposition and state figures. This situation has occurred objectively.

The system which has been shaping the Armenian political class for
two decades, including Serzh Sargsyan, collapsed in the result of
home and foreign events but there is no replacement. No replacement
is there because the Armenian political class is a conglomerate of
political adventurers, criminals and small vendors which is unable
to work out and propose solutions both at home and foreign front terms.

The political class was used to a situation when others made decisions
for it, and it gets its “share” from the feeder. Declared as political
forces, the political and criminalized business interfered in the
management of the country which dictated their rules and laws.

So, the “blessed life” ended hit by new developments. And it is found
out that the political and criminalized business “elite” are confused,
not knowing what to do in the new situation.

Under these conditions, when they need to take a decision, they
evidently fail because no similar mechanism has ever been introduced
in Armenia. For example, BHP keeps mysterious silence, failing to
announce whether it is with Serzh Sargsyan, the Congress, Kocharyan
or alone. ARFD reminds vendors standing in line at night in front of
a wholesale market who think what to buy. Now and then, the Congress
makes proposals first to the BHP, then to Serzh Sargsyan. The RPA
does not understand whether to work with Serzh Sargsyan or Robert
Kocharyan. Let alone the other parties.

Most people affirm that Serzh Sargsyan, for his part does not know
what to do. He also needs to determine with who he needs to cooperate.

Unlike the political forces, Serzh Sargsyan’s situation is dual. On
the one hand, the former methodology of the system “overwhelms”
him because he is not used to other mechanisms. On the other hand,
he cannot ignore all the changes in home and foreign spheres in the
result of which a completely new situation has occurred.

All of Serzh Sargsyan’s statements and steps, or their absence rather,
accelerate the degradation of the system. Everyone is dissatisfied with
him, including his political party. Evidently, Serzh Sargsyan is not
doing it on purpose. On the contrary, he is trying to build a system
to replace the former one. But the charm of the situation is that
the former system does not allow it and the “systemic” crisis persists.

This is a chance for the society, in the sense that it has the
time and possibility to return its legal right to participate in
the country’s life. Most people in Armenia alarm “systemic crisis”
but they do not explain the meaning of preservation of this system,
and the interests of the society regarding it. Does the society have
a chance to realize its legal rights under this system, or can the
representatives of the system which seized this right for decades
give such guarantees to the society for the future?

Of course, there are concerns relating to the outcome of all this. But
the society’s task is to be consistent with the situation. As to
Serzh Sargsyan, his real weapon is his loneliness which will either
lead to his inglorious departure, or make him resort to the society’s
assistance. Serzh Sargsyan has no other way.

TURKISH FM DISCUSSES BILL ON ARMENIAN ALLEGATIONS REGARDING 1915 INCIDENTS WITH POLISH AMBASSADOR

Anadolu Agency
Dec 15 2011
Turkey

Ankara: Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu discussed the bill
on Armenian allegations regarding 1915 incidents with the ambassador
of EU term president Poland.

Davutoglu told Polish ambassador to Turkey Marcin Wilczek that
initiative at the French parliament on draft law criminalizing
rejection of Armenian allegations pertaining to the incidents of 1915
was unacceptable.

Officials said Davutoglu, who met with Wilczek over a luncheon,
told him that the matter must not be taken up by politicians but
by historians.

The initiative in France aimed to restrict freedoms of expression
and thought, he said.

The meeting also focused on visa procedure for Turkish citizens,
the latest developments in Cyprus issue and Turkey-EU relations,
officials added.