SOCHI MEETING FAILED TO SECURE PROGRESS IN KARABAKH TALKS – RUSSIA PROFILE
By Andrew Roth
Tert.am
26.01.12
For the tenth time during his presidency, Dmitry Medvedev met with the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to settle the frozen conflict
in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The meeting, which took place on
Monday in Sochi, once again failed to secure a breakthrough in the
negotiations. As Russia turns inward to focus on recent political
protests and Medvedev plans a speedy exit from the limelight, there
is still no end in sight to what he has called possibly the only
conflict in the post-Soviet space that can be settled today.
The trio’s winter meetings have become something of a tradition,
noted Medvedev, who spoke to the press this weekend when he took a
break from the negotiations to go skiing. There were low expectations
for the talks, especially after the group failed to achieve a
breakthrough in a highly anticipated meeting in Kazan last year. A
joint statement released by the parties simply reported both sides’
“readiness to speed up the development of agreements on the main
principles, including all previous work,” reported RIA Novosti.
Nagorno-Karabakh has remained in a perpetual state between conflict
and peace since the end of a six-year civil war in 1994 prompted by
the breakup of the Soviet Union and a territorial dispute between
neighboring Azerbaijan and Armenia. A ceasefire for the separatist
region that nominally belongs to Azerbaijan was negotiated by the OSCE
in 1994, but since then the decision of how to stamp out low-level
violence and find a lasting solution for Karabakh’s political future
has led to a series of dead ends.
An OSCE devised road map, the Madrid Principles, appeared to be
the best chance for a lasting peace in the region. The agreement,
which would quickly demilitarize Nagorno-Karabakh, ensure a right of
return to refugees from the war and eventually lead to a referendum on
Nagorno-Karabakh’s political status, seemed to be gaining strength,
but both Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliyev have refused to make key concessions. Those include when
a referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh’s political status would take place,
and whether that would include only the region or all of Azerbaijan,
as well as an agreement on a military withdrawal from two of the
seven Karabakh regions that are considered strategically important
for Armenian security.
Meanwhile in Nagorno-Karabakh, a low-level conflict continues as
sniper exchanges occasionally kill Azerbaijani regulars, separatist
fighters, and local residents as well; exchanges of fire take place
on an almost daily basis, according to local reports. While there are
few casualties, the incidents show the shaky nature of the ceasefire
along the border.
Azerbaijan’s willingness to compromise remains the key question, but
Sergei Minasyan, the head of the political research for the Institute
of the Caucasus, said that the border had been “comparatively quiet”
since the beginning of the new year. “The government of Azerbaijan
for the last two years has threatened war the next day. Yet no war
took place and the sides have become accustomed to the situation. I
think that even in Azerbaijan, which is not very satisfied with the
status quo, it is understood that the use of the front line as a
lever in the negotiations is already part of a past era, ” he said.
Yet Azerbaijan has far from abandoned a “position of strength, ”
said Sergei Markedonov, a Caucasus expert at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, writing on Politcom.ru. He quoted the
Azerbaijani president Aliyev as having said earlier this year:
“If anyone believes that the main topic of the discussion is the
prevention of war, then I do not agree with this opinion. Nobody
wants war… but that doesn’t mean that the negotiations will be
pushed off to the side, and that all efforts will be spent on the
prevention of war.
That simply does not happen.”At least in domestic politics, Aliyev
must continue to show a very strong position and avoid looking like
he might appease Armenia. “In this way, the president of Azerbaijan
showed that the goal of the negotiation process is not compromise,
but a discussion from the position of strength,” Markedonov concluded.
Despite the modest success of this round of negotiations, other experts
did note a silver lining. Alexander Markarov, who heads the Armenian
department of the CIS Institute, noted that both sides remain more
or less committed to guiding documents like the Madrid Principles,
which the OSCE continues to tout as the best framework for a possible
agreement.
The question now is whether Aliyev and Sargsyan can overcome their
differences without Russia to bring them together. While the recent
protests in Russian cities will certainly divert Russia’s attention
further away from Karabakh conflict, Medvedev’s time is also up; his
successor will not likely have the same patience for endless meetings
that bear few results. “The meeting at Sochi looks like Medvedev’s
farewell to his colleagues… the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
understand the meaninglessness of the meeting, but could not refuse, ”
said Elkhan Shakhinolgu, the head of research at the Atlas think-tank,
reported Nezavisimaya Gazeta.