Fitch upgrades Armenia as war migrants add dynamism to economy

July 31 2023

By bne IntelIiNews July 31, 2023

An extraordinary influx of tens of thousands of migrants into Armenia since the start of the Ukraine conflict has added dynamism to the small nation’s economy, according to Fitch Ratings, which on July 28 upgraded the country to ‘BB’, with a stable outlook.

Said Fitch: “Armenia has had a strong rebound from successive shocks in recent years since its downgrade [to ‘B+’] in 2020, and Fitch expects this dynamism to continue in light of an extraordinary inflow of migrants.

“Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, an estimated 50,000-65,000 immigrants (equivalent to 2.2% of Armenia’s pre-conflict population) from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have settled in the country. This supported strong growth of 12.6% in 2022, and Fitch expects the economy to grow by 7.2% in 2023, 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.”

In further comments on the impoverished South Caucasus country’s prospects, Fitch said: “Consumption will remain solid while the outlook for goods-and-services exports is also positive despite a strong appreciation of the Armenian dram, mainly due to a resurgence in tourism and re-exports to Russia. If current economic trends continue, Armenia’s already favourable medium-term potential growth (estimated at 4.5%) could receive a further boost from expansion of the labour force and improvements in productivity. Fitch expects income per capita (at market exchange rates) to nearly double from 2021 levels by 2025.”

The ratings agency noted that Armenia’s debt was stabilising at a low level, observing that government debt/GDP fell sharply to 46.7% in 2022 from 60.2% in 2021 due mainly to currency appreciation, but also the strong nominal GDP rebound and fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects stabilisation at around 44.6% in 2023-25, below its pre-pandemic 2019 level of 53.7% and the current ‘BB’ median of 54.1%.

“The share of FX-denominated debt of 60.5% as of 1Q23 is above the ‘BB’ median of 55%, although this has declined from 71.2% at end-2021 due to sharp dram appreciation as well a shift to greater local borrowing,” said the ratings firm, adding: “Risks to debt dynamics are mitigated by the relatively large share of concessional debt, and the high proportion of fixed rate debt (84.1% as of May).”

Fitch added that it expected that robust nominal economic growth and higher spending would result in a moderate increase in the general government deficit (cash basis) to 2.5% of GDP, from 2.2% in 2022.

Armenia’s current account posted a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2022 compared to a 2021 deficit of 3.7%. That, said Fitch, was a result of solid demand for services and goods exports and money transfers, including remittances. “We expect the current account to fall back into a deficit of 1.1% of GDP on average in 2023-2025 on strong domestic demand, but remain below historical averages in light of these positive factors. The stronger external position reduced net external debt to 24.6% of GDP in 2022 from 44.5% in 2021, and we expect a further decline to 16.1% of GDP by 2025, in line with peer medians. The external liquidity ratio is expected to peak at about 150% in 2024,” it added.

Fitch also pointed to some inherent risks from high reliance on the Russian market (49% of exports and 25% of imports in January-May), although in the short term, Armenia, it said, would benefit from the sharp increase in re-exports to the country that is occurring as a result of closure of other trade routes to Russia due to sanctions.

Fitch also assessed geopolitical risks to Armenia from its unresolved territorial dispute with Azerbaijan.

Those, risks, it said have increased since the start of the year, adding: “As of July, a seven-month long Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin Corridor in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is ongoing, and there have been multiple deadly military clashes on the border. Peace talks between the two countries continue, but in our view, are unlikely to yield a lasting peace agreement in the absence of territorial adjustments that may be politically difficult for Armenia to accept.

“Fitch believes that in the event of a military conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, fighting will largely be limited to the disputed region, and broader macroeconomic implications for Armenia will be limited.”

Fitch also looked at how lower inflation and a strong currency were key rating drivers for Armenia, saying: “Sharp increases in money transfers and movement of migrants from Russia have contributed to a sustained strengthening of the dram since mid-2022. The strong dram and the easing of global commodity prices caused inflation to fall into negative territory in June (-0.5% yoy) from a peak of 8.1% in January-February.

“Core inflation is also declining, from an average of 8% in 1Q23 to 1.5% yoy in June, notwithstanding strong wage growth (18% yoy as of May 2023), reducing concerns over economic overheating. Fitch expects the dram to moderately depreciate in 2023-24, albeit still to levels stronger than before the start of the Ukraine conflict.”

In its assessment of Armenia’s stable, dollarised banking sector, the ratings agency said: “The Armenian banking sector has favourable profitability (return on equity of 18%), asset quality (non-performing loan ratio of 2.6%) and capitalisation (Tier 1 capital ratio of 18.7% as of May). Deposit dollarisation levels have been stable, at 52.3% as of May 2023, while loan dollarisation declined slightly to 34.8% as of May.

“There are signs of overheating in the property market, with residential property prices rising by an average of 10% yoy in 1H23, owing mainly to the heightened demand from the population surge. However, Fitch sees risks of a disorderly correction as relatively low, and any spill over on the broader economy will likely be limited, given strong household and corporate balance sheets. Banks have adequate dram and US dollar liquidity, and a destabilising outflow of deposits is not seen as likely.”

https://www.bne.eu/fitch-upgrades-armenia-as-war-migrants-add-dynamism-to-economy-286018/?source=armenia

Turkish Press: A shame: Disney+ cancels Atatürk series after Armenian committee’s call

Turkey – Aug 3 2023
By Murat Yetkin 

Disney+ has pulled its upcoming series about the life of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, sparking widespread outrage from the Turkish government, opposition, and civil society.

Disney’s decision to cancel the series “Atatürk,” which was planned to be broadcast on the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic, came after the Armenian Committee of America (ANCA) called for the cancellation of the show, criticising the company for “glorifying a dictator.” That fueled the debate that it was a politically motivated move.

The company has allegedly said that the decision has “nothing to do with the Armenian Committee” and will be aired on “Fox TV.” But that has not been sufficient to stop the outrage in Türkiye, as the authorities, including the media watchdog, have been involved.

It is shameful for Disney+ to subjugate itself to hate speech against Türkiye and its founding leader while managing to unite the overwhelming majority in the country in all political segments. But what actually happened?

Disney+ is the digital platform of the Walt Disney Company, which celebrates its 100th anniversary this year. This year, with the proposal of the Turkish representative office, they decided to make a 6-episode series and a movie about Atatürk to mark the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye.

The series was to be shown on Fox TV Turkey in partnership with Disney+ and in cinemas on November 3.

Meanwhile, Disney+ ended foreign productions in early July 2023, citing losses. This was not a decision specific to Türkiye, it caused reactions in all contracted countries, but it had a special impact on Türkiye because of the Atatürk series.

In response, company officials said that the decision would not affect the production of Atatürk, which they had spent millions of dollars to complete.

That’s when the Armenian American Committee (ANCA) escalated its campaign. They accused the company of glorifying Atatürk by attributing war crimes and even genocide to his name. What they have been calling as crimes was Türkiye’s War of Independence.

When Disney+ said they would not broadcast it, they took it on as if they were undertaking an action.

Disney+ spokespersons stated that it will be shown on Fox TV and in cinemas. Their justification was far from convincing because the initial aim was to show it globally, to remind the world and young generations of Atatürk and the 1923 Republican Revolution.

In the end, the widespread opinion is that the Disney+ management has bowed to the influential Armenian lobby in Hollywood, ignored Türkiye’s intense reaction, and sacrificed the huge Turkish market for this cause.

The extent of the issue has already exceeded the decision of a company to give up the profits of a production that it has spent time, effort, and money on and to downgrade the production’s screening league. The reactions of mainstream opposition parties such as the CHP and IYI Party, and civil society organisations sensitive to Atatürk, the Republic, and secularism are natural.

This time, President Tayyip Erdoğan and the AKP administration have also claimed the Atatürk series. A rare case of the opposition and the government uniting on the issue of Atatürk.

Ebubekir Şahin, the chairman of the Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK) stated that the council will ask for a defence from the channel authorities because the Atatürk series will not be shown on the Disney+ platform. It shows how politicised the issue has become.

There are media reports that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Director of National Intelligence İbrahim Kalın also intervened in the process. AKP Spokesperson Ömer Çelik also condemned the decision to cancel the broadcast as a shameful disrespect to “the values of the Republic of Türkiye and our nation”.

To attribute the AKP’s seeming embrace of Atatürk in the case of Disney+ and the Atatürk series to “the Armenian issue” alone would be quite inadequate to explain the issue in all its dimensions.

It took Erdoğan and the AKP leadership some time to realise the depth of love and respect for Atatürk in all segments of society. MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s suggestions that Atatürk should no longer be an issue embraced only by the mainstream opposition, such as the CHP and the IYI Party, have also played a role in this. But it is a start that the AKP leadership also feels obliged to embrace Atatürk, albeit on this occasion.

On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the Armenian Committee (ANCA) is the diaspora organisation that strongly opposes the Nikol Pashinyan administration’s attempts to reconcile with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, and that it has partnered with the Greek lobby in the US Congress to oppose the sale of F-16s to Türkiye. The weakening of their remote control over Armenia is the Diaspora’s nightmare.

This is one of the reasons why they have been attacking Atatürk and Türkiye in such a vicious manner, which they have so far kept out of the 1915 genocide allegations.

Now let me return to my efforts to cancel my Disney+ subscription.

https://yetkinreport.com/en/2023/08/02/a-shame-disney-cancels-ataturk-series-after-armenian-committees-call/

‘Not only there can, but there must be peace,’ Pashinyan to Euronews

 23:57, 1 August 2023

YEREVAN, AUGUST 2, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has given an interview to Euronews TV.

The transcript of the interview is presented below.

Euronews – Nagorno Karabakh has been the stage of most violent episodes in the South Caucasus recent history. And tensions have not gone away since the 2020 peace deal. To what do you attribute the constant hostility?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – First of all, the document signed on November 9, 2020 is not a peace treaty or peace deal as you said, in its legal sense. But not so much de jure as de facto, a number of its provisions are grossly violated. I agree with you that it can be and it is a certain concept of future peace architecture.

But unfortunately, many provisions are regularly violated by Azerbaijan. You see you mentioned Nagorno Karabakh in your question, and everyone understands that. But Azerbaijan continues to claim there is no Nagorno Karabakh, although the November 9 trilateral statement defines the existence of Nagorno Karabakh as an entity, and the President of Azerbaijan signed hat statement. Moreover, he agreed that there is a line of contact in Nagorno Karabakh, and Nagorno Karabakh has a territory that is the defined paragraph 7 of the trilateral statement. Moreover, paragraph 7 of the statement provides that refugees and internally displaces persons shall return to the territory of Nagorno Karabakh and the adjacent districts under the auspices of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Unfortunately, to date Azerbaijan has not secured this right. Moreover, they are carrying out constructions in a number of villages that the Armenian population was forced to flee from during the war, and Azerbaijan declares that it will resettle these territories with Azerbaijanis.

Let alone that until now, contrary to paragraph 8 of the trilateral statement, the prisoners of war, captives, hostages, other detained persons have not been returned. Until recently, there were 33 prisoners, and recently two persons were abducted.

Now, turning to the Lachin Corridor, which is mentioned in the trilateral statement, to which you referred, and which is signed by the President of Azerbaijan, the purpose of which is to ensure a link between Nagorno Karabakh and the Republic of Armenia, that corridor must be under the control of Russian peacekeepers. By the way, Lachin Corridor, is not just a road, I want to draw your attention, it’s 5-km wide space, which is currently illegally blocked by Azerbaijan.

Euronews – We will get to the Lachin Corridor later. I want to ask you about the peace negotiations. You have just been back from Brussels, where you met the President of Azerbaijan, you have met several times, including with the mediation of the EU. These peace talks have been filling many people with hope of lasting peace in this region> Can there be peace and what can you tell us about these talks in Brussels?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – Not only there can, but also must be peace. This is my belief, my position, this is what I believe in. But for this to happen, it is also very important for the international community to be aware of important nuances, to be clear why there isn’t progress at a sufficient pace.

Let me go back to our penultimate meeting in Brussels, when we agreed, reached an agreement with the President of Azerbaijan in the presence of European Council President Charles Michel, that Armenia and Azerbaijan mutually recognize each other’s territorial integrity with 29.800 sq.km in the case of Armenia and 86.600 sq.km in the case of Azerbaijan. After that, Charles Michel made a statement about that, after which when an Armenian journalist asked me about it, I publicly confirmed that fact. Up to this point the President of Azerbaijan has not publicly confirmed that agreement. He has not denied it either, but this is a subtlety that creates a certain lack of trust.

And we also have an understanding that there should be a dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert, the capital and main city of Nagorno Karabakh, about the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh in the framework of an international mechanism. And this dialogue has not taken place so far either. But we need to follow up for this, we need to work for this, nobody promised that it was going to be easy to reach peace. If it were easy, it would have been long ago been achieved.

Euronews – What about the mediation of the EU? Many international actors have attempted to mediate this crisis, Russia, the USA, and now the European Union has been playing a bigger role. What do they bring to the negotiating table?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – I would like to start by emphasizing that the advantages of mediation have long been known to everyone, but all mediations come with certain shortcomings, they all have shortcomings, and each mediation has its peculiar shortcoming. If you allow me, I will speak about the shortcoming.

Look, for the Brussels platform, the problem we see and it has been a continuous problem is that around the table we reach a certain understanding, and we do this in the presence of the President of the European Council. And if one of the sides does not address, fulfill that agreement, this is not followed even by specific assessments. Here is an example: in my presence and the presence of the European Council President, back at the end of last year the President of Azerbaijan promised and undertook that within 15 days, they would let free 10 prisoners. They have not fulfilled that commitment so far. On the other hand, I assume that the effective mediation is when the failure to fulfill an agreement would be followed by at least a show of political attitude towards the one that fails to fulfill that commitment. In the Brussels platform we are not seeing this, I keep raising this issue.

Let me reveal a secret. We have even prepared a document that we called an “audit”, where we list the understandings that were reached at the Brussels platform but were subsequently not fulfilled. That’s quite a thick package, which is alarming.

Euronews – You are saying that Brussels is not following up when it comes to the shortcomings of either side?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – If without diplomacy, then yes.

Euronews – Do you think that the fact the West has been playing a bigger role here, the United States and Europe, has antagonized a more traditional regional power broker, Russia, or the other way around, the fact that Russia is more involved in Ukraine has given more space for other players to come and try to help you and Azerbaijan to find a common ground.

Prime Minister NIkol Pashinyan – Those episodes do occur, when we witness, so to speak, scenes of geopolitical jealousy. But I am glad to say that now the emphasis seems to have changed somewhat, and that change is that we hear from different sides statements that any platform that is going to be favorable for the peace process, they would welcome such platforms. And this is very important.

Let me remind you that this international competition seems to not be linked to us directly, because you know the platform of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs was active and it was created for addressing the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. But since February 24, 2021, the Co-chairs simply stopped interacting, some of them decided they do not want to interact with the others. What you say or what I call geopolitical jealousy emerged after that date. Before that such a genre did not exist. But on the other hand, it would of course be more productive if the international partners bring together their efforts. There have recently been signs that, nevertheless, they are somewhat interested in this latter logic.

Euronews – President Vladimir Putin has invited you and the President of Azerbaijan for another round of talks in Moscow. What would you say about Russia’s influence in this region today?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – As for the invitation, I have to emphasize that I have not received any invitation yet. As to Russia’s presence, of course, by virtue of the events in Ukraine, the interest of not just Russia, but also other geopolitical actors towards our region has been declining, because in practice the whole international attention is focused on Ukraine. And that is a factor.

But Russia is present in our region, in Nagorno Karabakh, in the Republic of Armenia, but the EU is also present. The EU civilian mission on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a new factor. The mission was supposed to be on both sides, initially that was the understanding, which was reached in Prague on October 6, 2022, during the quadrilateral statement. That was when the EU mission first came to this region. Initially it seemed that we had agreement to have the EU mission present on both sides of the border, but for whatever reasons Azerbaijan withdrew from it.

Euronews – Let’s talk about the situation on the ground. You mentioned the Lachin Corridor. The International Court of Justice, the European Court of Human Rights, the US, the European Union have all demanded guarantees over the freedom of movement in the Lachin Corridor. What do you know about what’s happening there, which is a crucial gateway for the people inside of Nagorno Karabakh.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – Regarding the International Court of Justice. I want to view it separately from the other factors you listed, because the decision of the International Court of Justice is legally binding, that is the highest international Court, the decisions of which have the highest legal force. Based on Armenia’s application, on 22 February 2023 it decided that Azerbaijan must do everything within its reach to ensure the free movement of vehicles, goods and citizens in both directions through the Lachin Corridor. And on July 6 the court reiterated, confirmed its decision.

This is very important for the logic of the international legal order because the decision of the highest international court is nor followed. In terms of law and legality, I think this is a bad message, it’s a food for thought for the international community. Anyway, we will be raising this issue in international instances.

Now about what’s happening in Nagorno Karabakh. There is a humanitarian catastrophe in Nagorno Karabakh. What is a humanitarian catastrophe? No food is being supplied to Nagorno Karabakh. There is no external supply of food. A number of essential commodities are not being supplied, baby food is not supplied, medication is not available, no hygiene supplies, no other essential goods are there, natural gas supply to Nagorno Karabakh was interrupted by Azerbaijan, electricity supply to Nagorno Karabakh was interrupted by Azerbaijan, the supply of fuel was interrupted by Azerbaijan. So in this sense, there is a real threat of hunger, we are facing there as well as health problems, and so on and so forth.

Euronews – Azerbaijan keeps denying they are doing any of them, keeping insisting that the Aghdam road is accessible.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – I don’t know what you are referring to, because I am speaking about the document that I signed, which has the status of an international document. It reads clearly that the Lachin Corridor, which is under the control of the Russian peacekeepers, and that’s not just a road but a 5-km wide area, must be out of Azerbaijan’s control and it must ensure a link between Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia.

In principle, it may sound absurd, but the road from the moon to Nagorno Karabakh is open too, but I cannot refer to institutions unknown to me. I am speaking about what is documented. And that road is now closed, if anyone doubts, he can right now take a trip and try to reach Nagorno Karabakh. By the way, the ICRC announced yesterday that it is no longer able to deliver humanitarian relief to Nagorno Karabakh because of the Lachin Corridor being closed. What does this mean? This means that the ICRC officially declared that humanitarian aid needs to be delivered to Nagorno Karabakh, otherwise they wouldn’t say they are unable to do that, secondly, it accepts that they cannot do it because the Lachin Corridor is closed. This was followed, if I am not mistaken, the announcement of “Freedom House”, saying it’s necessary to ensure access of humanitarian goods to Nagorno Karabakh.

Yesterday the Government of Armenia decided and today this relief is on-route, 400 tons of humanitarian goods are currently on-route to Karabakh. Let’s see if this reaches Nagorno Karabakh. Ander the trilateral statement and the International Court’s decision, that aid must reach them. Let’s see if it reaches Nagorno Karabakh.

Going back to the humanitarian crisis, of course in Nagorno Karabakh, especially in this season, there are some agricultural activities, however, the Azerbaijani army are shooting at farmers and equipment. After 2020, we have had cases of a tractor driver being killed by an Azerbaijani sniper while carrying out agricultural work. But there are no longer tractors operating, because there is no fuel. And because of the absence of fuel, people cannot harvest the crop, if by some miracle they harvest the crop, grains for instance, this harvest cannot reach, cannot be transported to flour mills because of the absence of fuel, if by some miracle they turn it into flour, then because of the absence of fuel, it cannot be delivered to bakeries to bake bread. Because there is no electricity or gas, if by some miracle the flour reaches the bakeries, they cannot bake bread at industrial volumes. If somehow some bread is baked, again because of the absence of transportation, that bread is hard or impossible to delivered to the shops. If it gets delivered to the shops, there is no public transport, and there is no private transport, again because of the absence of fuel, for the people to go and buy that bread from the shop. If somehow they manage to get to the shop, because of this blockade, all enterprises have shut down, all people have lost their jobs and people do not have income to buy bread in the shop. If by some miracle they have income to buy bread, the queues are so long and the goods are so scarce that if by some miracle you reach the shop, that miracle after miracle, after this chain of miracles, if they reach the shop, they may never get to buy that limited goods.

Think of baby food. Imagine, young mothers cannot feed babies with baby food. Many of them may have not breastfed from the beginning, they started with formula, and one day baby food just disappeared.

Euronews – I have spoken to a journalist inside Stepanakert, who described pretty much the same you are saying. I want to ask you about 2020. Thousand of people have lost their lives, soldiers, and civilians, I was here, in Armenia, and I went to Nagorno Karabakh during that time. I spoke to mothers of fallen soldiers. O also witnessed the pain and devastation of the other side trough the work of my colleagues in Azerbaijan. But I remember this one mother in Armenia, who told me she blames the death of her son on politicians, who were trained in the art of diplomacy, but were still falling in the traps of war. Do you think that your mission is to win a war or to negotiate peace?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – You know in any case war is wrong. If there is war, somebody somewhere did something wrong, or several people in several places did something wrong. But from the other side, what’s the cause of war? The cause of war is the impossibility of reaching durable reach or maintaining peace, and another question is if that impossibility genuine, is it real, is that authentic.

You spoke about a parent, a mother, who spoke about politicians. Of course, I understand I accept, I am in no way contesting anything a fallen soldier’s mother, wife, child says. But we forget a circumstance – a politician is a human too. It’s not like they are a special genetic breed. My son was in the war as well, my wife was in the war as well. And now you are asking a question, which is a very serious question, very legitimate question, but I think there are so much depths to it.

Throughout our existence humanity have spoken about the need to avoid wars, about the need to reach peace. And let’s assume this is the building where the politicians were bad, are bad, but what about the thousands buildings around the world? That would be an easy explanation – there are people and there are politicians. So it’s because of these bad politicians who are not allowing good people to get on well with their lives. Which is by and large true, but with one misunderstanding. In the next minute, especially in a democratic society, they can switch places, a politician can become human and a human can become a politician, a government official. And the problem is that this cycle has been going on for millennia.

Euronews – You mentioned something very important. In a way there seems to be in this region a very particular and tragic cycle, where the triumph of one side can be only achieved through the capitulation of the other side. Today I spoke to a young Armenian, who told me she is of a generation of independence, and she said back when she was very young there used to be talks mediated, organized I guess by Georgia between Azeri and Armenian kids. And she says she remembers that very fondly, because they could actually talk, kids could actually talk. Do you think peace, if it is brought up by politicians, signing a peace deal, can be implemented amid so much pain and heartbreak, or instead it should be built from the bottom up.

Prime Minister NIkol Pashinyan – Yes, of course I believe. To continue what I said, let me pay attention to one nuance. Politicians really create, they generate the public mood, but they also bear the public mood, and they influence the public mood, and they are influenced by public mood. This is a very complex system, but you spoke about young people. I do remember in 2018 I proposed such an idea. I could see in the social media, Armenian and Azerbaijani users engaging in a very aggressive exchange of views and in a public press conference, I urged the Armenian Azerbaijani users of the social media, and this was mostly happening in YouTube, this is where they encountered one another, they would leave comments under videos, to use that platform for speaking, for dialogue, instead of cursing each other. So I made an appeal at that time, but later it turned out the appeal did not have sufficient results of maybe we did not work consistently enough for that.

And regarding the war logic, we should never forget, conditionally speaking, the factor of the first blood shed, because whenever there is bloodshed, there is a victim, there is a casualty, this is a profound social-psychological, political and public moment. That’s very hard for both the public and the politicians. In the reality there is no such division. I reiterate, politicians do influence the public mood, but they are also influenced the public mood. So it’s very hard sometimes to opt for solutions, concessions and decision which profoundly might mean that those who dies in the past, dies for no reason. That’s a problem everywhere.

You spoke about the mother of the soldier who died. Imagine what an important factor it is that you have now made it a subject to discuss. But before that, or after that even, a question may come up. If you now make these concessions or mutual concessions, what about our children, what did they die for? Nobody has the answer to that question, nobody can give an answer to that question. And you should know that this question lies on the table of any politician. Even if a person understands that it’s important not to have any future casualties, they always know that they also have to get the answer to the second question: what about those who died in the past? what did they die for? was that sacrifice for no reason? Again, the politicians will be accused of taking those people away and getting them killed. What would be then the purpose, the meaning, the mission of all that happening? It’s very hard to explain to people that you know your son or your brother died for the future peace. How can you explain someone that you can die for peace, if peace is our whole purpose?

Euronews – Do you loose sleep over what happened to your country three years ago, all those deaths of civilians and soldiers?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – Obviously and naturally yes. It’s very hard to set these thoughts aside for a second and continue doing daily work.

Euronews – Mr. Prime Minister, one final question to you. I want to know if you have a message to the other side, but not the political leaders and the politicians that you meet in these talks, but the people of Azerbaijan. Do you have a message to those who maybe watching us right now?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – You know I think it’s not a good genre because when two politicians are speaking with one another, it’s the two peoples speaking to one another, because on the one side is the person elected by those people, and on the other side is the person elected by the other people. So, therefore, everything that I said now this is an international platform, this is also addressed to that people, but if there is something to communicate, I would say what I have been saying from the start, Everything I said is also addressed to the people of Azerbaijan. But in those cases sentences that people normally say – oh, we have long lived here and we will be long living here. I think all the words have already been said.

By the way, there is perhaps something which I would address to the public of Armenia and the public of Azerbaijan, because the publics of Armenia and Azerbaijan both must demand peace from their governments, it should be defined as a public demand and also peace, flexibility and skill to meet that demand.

Euronews – Thank you for your time. I hope it will be possible to achieve peace.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – Thank you.

[see video]

Armenians warn of crisis as Azerbaijan continues blockade


Armenian officials continued to warn of a humanitarian crisis as Azerbaijan continued a blockade it intensified in mid-June on the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Since December, Azerbaijan had been limiting or blocking traffic along the Lachin corridor, only letting limited humanitarian aid through, but the blockade reportedly intensified since mid-June.

Earlier this year, Azerbaijani forces established a checkpoint along the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting the region to Armenia, near the Armenian border, accusing Armenia of using the road to transfer military equipment to ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.


On June 16, the Azerbaijani APA news site reported that Azerbaijani officials had closed the Lachin corridor completely, preventing both people and goods from crossing, in response to what they said were attacks by Armenians.

According to APA, Azerbaijan would only reopen the road when “Yerevan takes responsibility for the latest provocation.”


Over a month later, the blockade continues, with supermarkets reportedly sitting nearly empty, along with shortages of medicine and fuel. Power outages are also reportedly afflicting the region.

The blockade is the latest in a series of measures reportedly taken by Azerbaijani authorities that have disrupted or blocked the movement of goods and people along the Lachin corridor.

Local journalists and officials have reported a number of incidents of miscarriages occurring due to pregnant women being unable to access necessary food items, medicine, and healthcare.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse on Friday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that “in Nagorno-Karabakh they have created a ghetto, in the most literal meaning of the word.”

“Look at the situation that we now have in Nagorno-Karabakh,” added Pashinyan. “We have a humanitarian crisis there. When we say humanitarian crisis, for many people it may seem like a political term or a headline for news, but let’s delve into its substance. It means, for instance, absence of essential goods, there is no vegetable oil in Nagorno-Karabakh, no sugar, there are no hygiene supplies, there is no butter, there aren’t several types of foodstuff. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh are hard working people of course, and in this agricultural season some products are produced, but because of the absence of fuel, the delivery of the goods to the potential consumers is almost impossible.”

Despite the earlier reports by Azerbaijani media, Azerbaijani officials have recently insisted that there is no blockade and accused ethnic Armenian officials of blocking traffic and smuggling weapons and contraband from Armenia.

On July 11, Azerbaijan’s State Border Service accused the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) of smuggling “various types of goods” along the Lachin corridor, including cell phones, fuel, and cigarettes.

“A criminal case has been opened under the relevant articles of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Azerbaijan in connection with the above-mentioned facts, and passage through the “Lachin” state border checkpoint has been temporarily suspended until necessary investigative measures have been completed,” said the State Border Service at the time.


On Saturday, Azerbaijani media posted a video purporting to show that ethnic Armenians are being let through a checkpoint along the Lachin corridor, although Armenian media claims the blockade is still in place.

Additionally on Saturday, the Armenian Armenpress news site reported that 13 ethnic Armenian patients had been transferred by the Red Cross from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, although dozens of other patients are reportedly waiting to be transferred.

Additionally, on Saturday at the Shusha Global Media Forum, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that it was ethnic Armenian officials, not Azerbaijani officials, causing the roadblock and insisted that the residents of the region could get any goods they needed from Azerbaijani territory.

Armenian journalists reported on Saturday that Azerbaijani officials had insisted that Azerbaijani doctors inspect patients before letting the Red Cross transfer them.

Aliyev additionally insisted that Azerbaijan will protect the rights and security of ethnic Armenians in accordance with its constitution.

The Azerbaijani president additionally referred to ongoing efforts to reach a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, stating that Armenia has already verbally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory, but needs to be willing to sign a document stating that for a peace deal to be reached.

In 2020, a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and nearby areas, ending just over a month later with a new line of contact drawn and Russian peacekeepers deployed along the line. Sporadic clashes have been reported along the line since the war.


https://www.jpost.com/international/article-752074

Russia Stresses Its ‘Red Lines’ as Armenia and Azerbaijan Continue Peace Negotiations

Residents in Karabakh rally in front of the local offices of the International Red Cross (Source: Civilnet)

On July 15, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met for the sixth time in Brussels via the mediation of European Council President Charles Michel to discuss the normalization of their bilateral relationship. The meeting took place, as Michel pointed out in his post-summit remarks, against the backdrop of “a worrying increase in tensions on the ground” (Consilium.europa.eu, July 15).

The already strained situation in the region (see EDM, July 7) had worsened prior to the Brussels summit due to the temporary closure of the Lachin checkpoint by Baku after the Azerbaijani State Border Service alleged that Armenia was trying to smuggle various items in vehicles belonging to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) on July 11 (Trend.az, July 11). In its statement, the ICRC acknowledged the transportation of “unauthorized goods” across the Lachin road and declared the termination of contracts with those who engaged in this illegal activity (Icrc.org, July 11). In addition to this, the rally in the city of Khankendi in the Karabakh region a day before the Brussels summit, organized by the pro-Russian separatist leaders there and protesting the alleged “blockade” of the Lachin road, created an overall negative background for the talks (Civilnet.am, July 14).

The European Union, despite these tensions, succeeded in bringing Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders to the negotiating table once again, though no major breakthrough or progress was announced afterward. According to Michel, the sides reaffirmed their previously reached agreements, including the recognition of one another’s territorial integrity and their readiness to accelerate the work on border delimitation and re-opening transportation links (Consilium.europa.eu, July 15).

Even so, two major novelties came from the recent summit. First, the EU declared its readiness to contribute financially to the construction of a “railway connection” between the two countries. This is critical as the questions about the source of funding for the construction of the Armenian section of the railway along the Zangezur Corridor have caused heated debates within the country. Now, it appears that the EU will play some financial role here (see EDM, April 21, 2021).

The second major development is related to the delivery of humanitarian cargo to the Armenian community in Karabakh. For his part, Michel “noted Azerbaijan’s willingness to provide humanitarian supplies via Aghdam” (Consilium.europa.eu, July 15). This option, along with the continuation of humanitarian supplies via the Lachin road, was welcomed by the EU official as central to ensuring that the needs of the population in the region are met. This is widely seen as another affirmation of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity by the EU and Armenia—to the dismay of some ultra-nationalist groups in Armenia and on the Russian side.

Particularly for Russia, the Western-mediated peace process and the agreements reached on this track, especially the recognition of the Karabakh region as part of Azerbaijan by the Armenian side, is a markedly worrying development. Moscow believes that the West seeks to push for a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan with the goal of minimizing Russian influence in the region by kicking out its peacekeeping mission and eventually the Russian military base in Armenia as well (see EDM, May 23).

Hence, it is not surprising that, on July 15, while the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders were in Brussels, the Russian Foreign Ministry shared a strongly worded statement expressing its vision and “red lines” for the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process (Mid.ru, July 15). Above all, the statement said the recognition of the Karabakh region as part of Azerbaijan by Armenia “radically changed the fundamental conditions under which the statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia of November 9, 2020, was signed, as well as the position of the Russian peacekeeping contingent deployed in the region.”

According to many observers, this statement, in the face of criticism for Russia’s inaction on Azerbaijan’s recent moves, shifted all the blame for the current situation in the Karabakh region to the Armenian leader Pashinyan, with a note that “responsibility for the fate of the Armenian population of Karabakh should not be shifted to third countries.” In its response, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs harshly criticized the mentioning of the issue of territorial integrity by the Russian side in this context (Mfa.gov.az, July 15).

Moreover, the statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry called for “reliable and clear guarantees of the rights and security of the Armenians of Karabakh,” without specifying its details (Mid.ru, July 15). The Russian authorities, however, emphasized that “the strict implementation of the entire set of trilateral agreements between Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia” should be “an integral part” of a peace agreement. As noted earlier, Russia sees these trilateral documents as an assurance for its presence in Karabakh as well as in key regional transportation projects, including the development of the Zangezur Corridor (see EDM, May 23).

Next, the statement expressed Moscow’s “intention to actively contribute to the efforts of the international community to restore the normal life of Nagorno-Karabakh” (Mid.ru, July 15). This appears at odds with Russia’s earlier objection to the West’s “hijacking” of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process (see EDM, April 14, 2022; May 31, 2022). The change in rhetoric may be related to the fact that the statement presents the efforts of the West as “secondary” to the “real” peace process, which apparently takes place under the Kremlin’s auspices. Hence, the ministry’s statement expressed Russia’s readiness “to organize a trilateral meeting of foreign ministers in Moscow in the near future to discuss ways to implement the agreements at the highest level, including the issue of agreeing on a peace treaty.” It adds that the Kremlin expects to hold a trilateral summit of the three countries’ leaders in Moscow to sign a peace treaty.

That said, while disagreements between Baku and Yerevan persist on major issues (see EDM, July 7), they seem to have increased their political will to overcome these differences, as the latest Brussels summit demonstrated. Yet, as the two countries move closer to reaching a peace treaty, the geopolitical aspects of the process will become increasingly pronounced. Few doubt that Russia will easily leave the process to the hands of the two negotiating parties and their Western mediators. As the statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry manifested, Moscow is readying to assert its interests in the process and reset the negotiating table under its control.

Asbarez: Artsakh Residents Block Askeran-Aghdam Road

Artsakh resident block the road connecting Askeran to Aghdam on Jul. 18 (Facebook photo by Arshak Abrahamyan)


Residents of Artsakh, angered with Azerbaijan’s refusal to end the seven-month-long blockade of the Lachin Corridor and with Baku’s insistence that humanitarian supplies be delivered to Karabakh via Aghdam — bypassing Armenia — blocked the road to Askeran by placing cement barriers.

Azerbaijan’s foreign minister repeated Baku’s latest scheme to maintain its stranglehold on Artsakh—the supposed transport of humanitarian aid into Karabakh via Aghdam, formerly Akna as it was known before its occupation in 2020.

This latests stunt by Baku found its way into a remarks made by European Council President Charles Michel who hosted talks between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan on Saturday in Brussels.

Following the talks, Michel told reporters that clear steps were discussed to help the situation return to its normal course again.

“I emphasized the need to open the Lachin Corridor, noted Azerbaijan’s readiness to deliver humanitarian aid through Aghdam,” said Michel told reporters soon after the end of talks on Saturday.

Artsakh Internal Affairs Minister on Tuesday denied reports circulating in Azerbaijani media that purported that humanitarian was delivered to Artsakh via Aghdam.

“Another disinformation has been disseminated on the Facebook social network that allegedly Red Cross employees are transporting humanitarian aid from Akna (Aghdam), through the city of  Askeran, accompanied by Russian peacekeepers,” said the Artsakh Internal Affairs Ministry, adding that not convoys had passed through the road.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Jeyuhun Bayramov told the newly-appointed Russian Ambassador to Baku that “the Aghdam [(Akna)]-Khankendi [(Stepanakert)] road can be used to meet the demands of the Armenian residents of Azerbaijan,” a statement said.

He also accused Yerevan of “distorting facts” when Armenian officials talk of the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Karabakh due to the Lachin Corridor closure.

Blocking of Lachin Corridor, humanitarian crisis in NK and other issues discussed at Pashinyan-Michel-Aliyev meeting

 18:54,

YEREVAN, JULY 15, ARMENPRESS. The trilateral meeting of Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev took place in Brussels, ARMENPRESS was infomred from the Office of the Prime Minister. 

During the meeting, the deepening humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh caused by Azerbaijan’s illegal blocking of the Lachin Corridor, border delimitation and works for ensuring border security between the two countries, the unblocking of regional transport and economic infrastructures, the agreement on the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, addressing the rights and security of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as issues related to prisoners, missing persons and other humanitarian issues were discussed.

An agreement was reached to intensify the work towards the solution of the discussed issues.

Journalist ‘attacked by Interior Ministry employees’ in Nagorno-Karabakh

July 12 2023
 12 July 2023

Hayk Ghazaryan. Photo: CivilNet.

A journalist working for an independent Armenian media outlet was beaten by individuals he alleges were Interior Ministry employees in civilian clothing in Stepanakert, two days after his phone was taken by police while covering a protest.

Hayk Ghazaryan, a journalist at OC Media partners CivilNet, was attacked in the region’s capital on Tuesday evening.  

Ghazaryan had been filming protests that took place on 8 and 9 July against the region’s prosecutor’s office, during which a clash broke out between protesters and police. 

Protesters were demanding that lawyers be allowed to visit Arman Israelyan, a former employee of the Red Cross and Halo Trust who is charged with treason. 

At the protest on Sunday, police confiscated Ghazaryan’s phone. According to Civilnet, Ghazaryan stated that he was wearing a press badge, but police claimed not to have been aware that he was a journalist because the press pass was the same colour as his trousers. 

His phone was only returned to him later that day following the involvement of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Human Rights Defender, Gegham Stepanyan, and all videos of the protest had been deleted. 

After the incident, the journalist recorded a live video on Facebook, stating that the official who took his phone was Arayik Gasparyan, head of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Criminal Investigation Department. He demanded an explanation from the police and Interior Ministry. 

On Monday, Ghazaryan was summoned to a meeting with the head of Nagorno-Karabakh’s National Security Service, Ararat Melkumyan. According to CivilNet, Melkumyan spoke to Ghazaryan in a ‘harsh and threatening tone’, and demanded that he broadcast a live apology to the Interior Ministry and National Security Service officers. 

On Tuesday, Nagorno-Karabakh’s Human Rights Defender issued a statement condemning the obstruction of a journalist’s work, describing it as ‘unacceptable and reprehensible’. 

In a second statement, released after news of the attack, Stepanyan condemned the violence, and demanded that law enforcement agencies take all measures necessary to identify the perpetrators and bring them to justice. 

CivilNet also called on law enforcement agencies in Nagorno-Karabakh to ‘immediately stop these actions that cross the borders of legality’, and instead deal with the region’s ongoing blockade. 

This article was corrected on 12 July 2023. Ghazaryan stated that he was attacked by Interior Ministry employees, not police.

 For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status.

https://oc-media.org/journalist-attacked-by-interior-ministry-employees-in-nagorno-karabakh/

Armenia, Greece and Cyprus Sign Trilateral Military Cooperation Program

July 6 2023
by GCT

During the consultations, various security and cooperation issues of mutual interest to the three countries were discussed. The parties reiterated their readiness to collaborate and take joint steps in order to strengthen the defence capability and military security of all three nations.
As a result of the discussions, the annual program of trilateral military cooperation was signed, encompassing a range of events to be held in Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus.

At the conclusion of the consultations, Lieutenant General Dimokritos Zervakis, the commander of the National Guard of the Republic of Cyprus, also received the delegations.