Author: Babken Chilingarian

Since April 2021, Iran and other signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal (commonly known as  JCPoA) have been engaged in active negotiations to restore it. President Biden’s administration declared its intention to move forward in that direction almost immediately after coming to power in January 2021. Many representatives of the Obama administration, who were personally involved in the negotiations from 2013 to 2015, received new positions in the Biden administration, and their desire to restore what they achieved in 2015 was quite understandable. Besides personal motives, the two and half years of the “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran launched by President Trump did not bring any tangible results. The Iranian economy did not collapse, and there was nothing close to “regime change.” Meanwhile, Iran started to enrich uranium in higher percentages in mid-2019 and, at the beginning of 2021, was much closer to the capabilities to create its first nuclear bomb.

The Biden administration stated its intention to finish the negotiations by the next presidential elections in Iran, hoping that the outgoing administration of President Rouhani would be ready to reach the new deal. However, this assessment was quite optimistic and not entirely in line with the complex reality of Iranian domestic politics. As conservatives were going to win the presidential elections, they had no motives to provide President Rouhani with another opportunity to claim foreign policy success. When Ebrahim Raisi won the June 2021 elections, the new administration asked for time to fully assess the situation. The sides returned to the negotiation table in November 2021, and in March 2022, the deal seemed imminent. Even the start of the war in Ukraine and Russian demands that Western sanctions should not restrict Russian ability to fully utilize the sanctions relief did not ruin the negotiation process. 

However, in March 2022, Iran put forward a new demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the foreign terrorist organization list. The US placed the IRGC on its “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” list in 2019. The designation was part of the “maximum pressure” campaign then-President Trump imposed on Iran after pulling the United States out of the nuclear deal. 

Another contentious issue was Iran’s demand to provide guarantees that future American administrations will not withdraw from the agreement, repeating the move taken by President Trump in May 2018. Meanwhile, the Republicans in the US House of Representatives and Senate pressured the Biden administration on Iran’s issue. On March 14, 2022, 49 Republican Senators signed a statement claiming they would not support the revived Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran.

However, after months of deliberations, in late May 2022, President Biden decided to keep Iran’s IRGC on a terrorist blacklist. Tensions increased on June 8, 2022 when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution criticizing the Islamic republic for failing to cooperate. The resolution – the first to criticize Iran since June 2020 – was approved by 30 members of the IAEA board of governors, with only Russia and China voting against it. 

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian meets with Josep Borrell Fontelles, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Tehran, June 25, 2022 (Photo: Twitter/ @JosepBorrellF)
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It seemed negotiations were at an impasse, and there was no way forward. However, as the primary mediator, the EU made additional efforts to revitalize the process. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, met Hossein Amir-abdollahian, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Iran on June 25, 2022 in Tehran. Iran and the United States launched another round of indirect talks in Qatar, mediated by the EU. The talks, which were held on June 29-30, did not bring any results. However, they paved the way for a new round of talks in Vienna in early August 2022. On August 8, 2022, the EU presented “the final draft” of the agreement, calling on Iran and the US to accept it. Then the ping pong diplomacy started. Iran sent its remarks to the US via the EU, and the US presented its views to Iran through European mediators. Iran dropped its demand to remove IRGC from the foreign terrorist list. However, the biggest hurdle was Iran’s demand that the IAEA close its three-year investigation into unexplained uranium discovered at several of the country’s old but undisclosed nuclear sites. As Iran sent its comments on the US’s latest suggestions in early September 2022, the US officials called Iran’s response “not constructive.” 

The diplomatic crisis between Iran and Albania, triggered by alleged Iranian cyber attacks against critical Albanian infrastructure, added additional tensions to the situation. Albania severed diplomatic ties with Iran on September 7 and gave its diplomats 24 hours to leave the country.

It should be noted that the July 15 attack occurred ahead of a planned conference by the Mujahedeen e-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian militant party in exile that relocated to Albania in 2016 with US financial support. Tehran considers the MEK, which critics have described as a Marxist-Islamist cult, a terrorist organization, while the US removed the organization from the foreign terrorist organization list in September 2012, changing the decision made by President Clinton’s administration in 1997. On September 9, 2022, President Biden imposed new sanctions on Iran over the cyberattack against Albania. The two reports released by IAEA in early September added additional complications to the negotiations. One report criticized Iran for the lack of cooperation in an ongoing investigation of the uranium found on undeclared sides. A separate report showed that Iran had expanded its enrichment and stockpile of highly-enriched uranium beyond the limits of the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran has called both reports baseless. 

The last move in this long drama was the September 10 joint statement by Germany, France and the UK. The three states claimed that while the sides were edging closer to an agreement, Iran reopened separate issues related to its legally-binding international obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its NPT safeguards agreement with IAEA. According to the statement, this latest demand raised severe doubts about Iran’s intentions and commitment to a successful outcome on the JCPoA. Germany, France and the UK stated that Iran must fully and, without delay, cooperate in good faith with the IAEA, and it was up to Iran to provide technically credible answers to the IAEA’s questions on the whereabouts of all nuclear material on its territory. The three states argued that the JCPoA could in no way be used to release Iran from legally-binding obligations essential to the global non-proliferation regime.

After almost two years of negotiations, the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal has seen many ups and downs. However, time is ticking, and if no deal is reached by the end of 2022, it would be impossible to revive the JCPoA. As Iran prepares to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the failure to restore JCPoA will bring Iran closer to China and Russia in the emerging multipolar world.

Orran’s ”Theatre Art and Creative Speech” group organizes an event on the occasion of World Poetry Day. (Photo: Facebook/Orran Armenia)

Several years ago while visiting Armenia, my wife and I had the privilege of visiting Orran (Haven). It was founded by Armine Hovannisian in response to the number of children on the streets of Yerevan who were not attending schools. It has grown into a remarkable after-school program where children receive age appropriate tutoring, outdoor activity and cultural classes. The program is based on an agreement with the parents that the children will attend school and receive support through this program in the afternoon. They are off the streets, receiving an education and valuable mentoring from a professional staff, including volunteers who offer the kids subject tutoring, homework time, a meal, as well as music, dance, woodworking and art classes. The results have been impressive.

During our visit, we interacted with children who may have been begging or selling wares on the streets a few months earlier. They were smiling, happy and full of life. This organization has literally saved lives and is an investment in the future of Armenia. There is nothing like the enthusiasm of a group of young children to inspire the rest of us. As we walked through the building to visit the classroom activity, the sheer joy was evident. The objective is simply to afford each of these precious gifts the opportunity to become their best. I vividly remember one classroom of third or fourth grade students. Each child was asked to introduce themselves to us and share what they wanted to do when they became adults. We were brought to tears with their confident and passionate statements about becoming a soldier, dancer, doctor or teacher. In a follow-up discussion with Armine and her staff, she mentioned something that has remained with me to this day. She told us that these children were “dreaming again.” In their former lives of street survival and family economic despair, they were robbed of their childhood and the freedom of imagining their future. They were trapped in a day-to-day life of existence. They did not have the luxury nor the environment to dream. That ability has been restored and with it their future. It truly has become a haven to allow these children and families the dignity they deserve. Dreams begin the creative process, and when refined, they become our life’s work.

As adults, there is much we can learn from our children. The beauty of their unconditional love is unconstrained by a world of “learning” and “experiences” that often lead to biases and narrow thinking. There is something remarkable about a young mind that possesses the freedom of no limits. It is so fulfilling to hear my five-year-old granddaughter say, “This is the best day of my life” or “ I love those animals.” Unencumbered by the rigors of “maturing,” our children teach us that all good things start with a dream. It is one of the essentials of human development that is carried forward from adolescence. Dreaming is the beginning of creative thought leading to a vision which inspires action. Our ability to act as individuals, as a family or as a community is what sustains our betterment. In its absence, we stagnate and either dwell on the past or are stuck in the present. The greatest accomplishment of the Orran team is the restoration of dreaming in these precious children. If we truly have internalized that these children are tomorrow’s leaders, then this transformation ensures the opportunity for hope.

This core essential can be understood in the context of our global nation. A nation that has experienced independence for a small percentage of time in the last 150 years is highly dependent on the catalytic nature of dreaming. The idea of a sovereign nation was kept alive during almost 500 years of Ottoman Turkish rule. After the Genocide and the humiliation of expulsion, many abandoned the vision of an independent state as impractical. Some continued to dream, and the First Republic was born under unlikely circumstances. After the Sovietization and Turkish aggression, again many set aside the dream in the interests of survival. Others were able to hold onto the dream and rebuild in the diaspora or in Armenia. Patriotic notions of freedom were retained in the diaspora and taught to a new generation. We would chant “Azad Haiastan” as an ideal without a clear plan. It was in our hearts. In Armenia, these ideals were never extinguished, but simply were embedded in their souls. A nation that continued to dream, build a vision and work survived attempts at extinction by defying sociological norms. Maintaining the mental freedom of conscience to dream is a powerful tool and an essential in our nation’s recipe. It rewards us with fresh air to breathe. Once we stop, we enter despair.

Something has changed, however, in our experience with this time tested formula. Do we still have dreams as a nation? Do we have a unifying vision fed by the dreams of our people? My observations both in the western diaspora and in the homeland is that our dreams have been interrupted by a reality that we cannot seem to shake. There was a time when euphoria for the homeland not only was a unifying signal, but it had re-energized the diaspora. For decades under the Soviet regime, there was an artificial wall between the diaspora and Armenia. With the emergence of the Republic in 1991, there was great hope that the walls would be replaced with a singular purpose. Although progress has been made to that end, most Armenians are disappointed with the depth of the relationship. Plotting the relationship on a line graph resembles the current volatility of the stock market. It seems that many in the diaspora have taken a step back in the last few years, given the regional turmoil and political crisis in Armenia.

Certainly and thankfully, there are still thousands of Armenians from the diaspora who are still living their dreams through the educational, economic, cultural and social nonprofits that serve the citizens of Armenia and Artsakh. The mood, however, is troubling. Our dreams have been interrupted with conflicts and turmoil. Everyone seems to have an ominous opinion about the current state in the homeland. I have spoken with many, and the unscientific perception has become reality. People are not visiting because they fear unrest. Individuals are not donating because they fear corruption in the church and are confused on how to resolve their lack of trust. There is almost unprecedented concern about the future of Armenia given the lack of political leverage. Our disunity globally is being exploited by our enemies. Erdogan and his neo-Ottoman cronies never fail to mention the “diaspora” as an obstacle to normalizing relations. Our public conflicts feed their propaganda. It is one matter to have disagreements in a democratic society. We have them, and it does not exist in Turkey or rogue Azerbaijan. We must ensure that it does not reduce the effectiveness of the Republic. On the west coast, the political debates have impacted the functioning of the community. When debates over the homeland start affecting our communities in the diaspora, we have gone too far. Our Achilles’ heel has always been our disunity, or shall I say our inability to subordinate our egos to a greater mission. Beyond the public distractions, I fear that our cause has taken a backseat to our obsession with political squabbles. If we knew how to keep them in the right perspective, we would never allow debate to evolve into conflict. We must all take responsibility for our role in this global nation. While we play battle of the titans with each other, the Turks are tightening the noose. One thing is clear. Regardless of the time, the venue, the current issues or the players, the Turks have a single objective: to see to the elimination of Armenia and Armenians in order to facilitate regional hegemony. Pick an era—1895, 1920 or 2022. The goal has remained constant. While our children dream in their world, the adults have become dangerously distracted.

The disappointment that has engulfed the global Armenian nation is understandable. We are still in shock over the loss of life and territory in the 2020 ambush by the Turkish cousins. We have a history of loss, and the impact has influenced our psyche as a people. It is particularly damaging after the heroic defenses from 1991-1994 that led to a liberated Artsakh. It reminds us of the First Republic’s inclusion of Kars, Ardahan and Ararat, only to lose it to Turkish aggression in 1920. The diaspora was founded essentially as a result of the death and destruction of the Genocide. The recovery of what was lost (Hai Tahd) and the sensitivity to any aggression from the Turks are ingrained in the generational mentality of the diaspora. Justice is not only a valid political issue, it is a moral one for the descendants of the victims. It has created generations of dreaming. The Turks and others who will exploit our global diversity will work overtime to create dissension among us. Teasing our wounded Republic with “normalization” and then shedding the olive branches to reveal the same wolf appearance of their ancestors is intended to weaken us as people. We must be wise to keep our debate and concerns within the “family” and never let our differences become fuel for the Turks. This requires less emotion and more discipline.

Dreaming again as a nation is not an exercise in impractical thoughts. It is the beginning of clarity and vision that creates a sense of purpose. When those children at Orran began dreaming again, they restored a sense of direction in their lives and that of their families. Each of us has a responsibility to enable working together under a common vision. Those of us in the diaspora must realize that any backing off from the homeland not only damages our potential, but does not support Hai Tahd. If we allow ambivalence to replace negativity, we will still swing and miss. The only answer is to define common ground and build upon it. A nation must always dream.