WILL RUSSIA FIGHT ITS WAY TO GYUMRI MILITARY BASE THROUGH GEORGIA?
Sakartvelos Respublika
June 19 2012
Georgia
Interview with military analyst Irakli Aladashvili by Mikheil Bolkvadze
[translated from Georgian]
While the world awaited a conflict in Iran, it actually happened
in the South Caucasus and what experts have described as the first
instance of extreme pressure [border shootings in early June 2012]
since 1994 occurred on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The
situation has become so tense that a large-scale war between the
two countries now looks possible. However, it is also clear that
there will be more than just two parties to the conflict as Russia
and Turkey are likely to enter the theatre of war either secretly
or openly. Armenia and Russia, as well as Azerbaijan and Turkey,
have signed collective defence treaties, which means that the “your
enemy is my enemy” principle applies to their relations.
In order to determine who this conflict will be fatal for (and it could
also be fatal for us because the only supply route for the Russian
military base in Armenia passes through Georgia), we contacted Irakli
Aladashvili, editor-in-chief of the Arsenali military and political
magazine. Together with him, we analysed the likely consequences of
the resumed military conflict in the South Caucasus and the military
potential of the sides.
[Bolkvadze] Let us begin with the treaty signed by Armenia and Russia.
How topical is it becoming today?
[Aladashvili] Let us start with the background. The treaty that
you mentioned was signed a couple of years ago and provides for
collective defence and mutual aid during combat operations both by
Russia and Armenia. I would like to draw a parallel with a similar
treaty that Russia and Armenia signed in the 1990s. That one only
provided for the 102nd Gyumri military base aiding Armenia in case
Armenia would have problems with its neighbours, namely Turkey and
Iran. However, according to the new treaty signed two years ago,
this principle applies to all [of Armenia’s] neighbours, including
Azerbaijan and Georgia.
[Bolkvadze] How big is the Russian base stationed in Gyumri and what
specific measures does this treaty provide for?
[Aladashvili] Russia’s 102nd military base is not stationed in Gyumri
alone as some of its smaller units are stationed in Yerevan too,
including the air force base at the Yerevan-Yuzhnyy airfield. All
this means that they are to provide each other with real military aid.
Incidentally, Russia is not paying for using the Gyumri base which
is financed by Armenia. In exchange, the Armenian Armed Forces,
especially the air defence units, are trained on Russian territory
because aid defence is the most important thing today and Armenia
devotes a lot of attention to it. So, Armenia trains its air defence
units in Russia to use the S-300 antiaircraft missile systems. Also,
18 MiG-29 fighter jets are stationed at the Yerevan-Yuzhnyy airfield.
Generally speaking, there was not a single combat plane in Armenia
in Soviet times. The main airfields were located in Georgia and
Azerbaijan, while Armenia only had helicopters, but the situation is
different today. Six MiG-23 jets arrived in Armenia in the 1990s and
they were subsequently replaced with these 18 MIG-29s in order to
protect Armenia’s nuclear power plant. These MiG-29s are the first
[units] that are likely to become involved in these combat operations.
Incidentally, it was reported this week that the Russian pilots from
this base have performed 200 combat [training] sorties since the
beginning of this year. The figure of 200 sorties is not a small one.
They are practicing flying at night and in adverse weather conditions,
which means that they are preparing for aerial combat.
[Bolkvadze] Why are they focusing on aerial combat so much?
[Aladashvili] Because Azerbaijan’s air force is the best [in the
region]. It has bombers, attack planes, and fighters. In short,
it has a strong air force.
[Bolkvadze] Does it have the necessary personnel?
[Aladashvili] It probably does. Incidentally, what is most strange
is that Azerbaijan is currently buying a modernized variant of the
Mi-24 helicopter in Russia.
[Bolkvadze] It is normal f or Russia to arm both parties to a
conflict…[ellipsis as published]
[Aladashvili] This is true. At last year’s military parade, Baku
displayed modern weapons that neither it nor any other country in
the South Caucasus had in its arsenal before. These include the
Tochka-U tactical operational missiles that Russia used against us
during the August [2008 Russian-Georgian] war. Also, the S-300PMU-2
Favorit antiaircraft missile systems purchased in Russia.
[Bolkvadze] Does Azerbaijan buy this Russian-branded military equipment
in Russia only?
[Aladashvili] Azerbaijan could also have bought the Tochka-U missiles
in Ukraine but it could not have bought the Favorits in Ukraine.
Interestingly, Russia is supplying both sides with armaments. A couple
of years ago, we published a journalistic investigation in Arsenali
as to how the S-300 antiaircraft missile systems were delivered to
Armenia through Georgia. Armenia says that those systems belonged
to it and they were indeed displayed at a parade. However, one
cannot rule out the possibility that these weapons were delivered
to the Russians too. The S-300 is a powerful system and Russia has
also deployed it in Abkhazia. So, they have this system in occupied
Abkhazia and if they deploy it in occupied Tskhinvali [South Ossetia]
as well, they will have the entire western part of the South Caucasus
covered because they have it in Gyumri too.
[Bolkvadze] It is clear that, given the aid they receive from our
occupied territories, Armenia and Russia control quite a large part
of the airspace but Turkey is not short of armaments or military
knowledge either. Should we assume that Azerbaijan can rely on the
capacity of the Turkish air force?
[Aladashvili] Turkey has signed a treaty similar to the one signed
by Russia and Armenia with Azerbaijan.
[Bolkvadze] Is an attack on Azerbaijan considered an attack on Turkey?
[Aladashvili] It is approximately like that, particularly as the
commander of the Turkish ground forces, an army general who visited
Baku last week, confirmed that they stand alongside the Azerbaijani
Army. However, this does not mean that Turkey and Russia will engage
in a war with each other. It looks like both sides will try to secretly
aid their favourites.
[Bolkvadze] Will Turkey and Russia wage a war through Azerbaijan
and Armenia?
[Aladashvili] If the situation becomes as tense as that… [ellipsis
as published] I would also highlight the cooperation between Azerbaijan
and Israel that has reached a very serious level lately.
They signed the latest contract worth 1.6 billion dollars two
months ago.
[Bolkvadze] Will Israel supply Azerbaijan with military equipment
worth 1.6 billion dollars?
[Aladashvili] It is already delivering some quite serious equipment,
including unmanned aircraft, guided missiles, and [other types of]
modern armaments.
[Bolkvadze] Can we say that Israel’s military cooperation with
Azerbaijan is also directed against Iran? We know that Azerbaijan
has territorial disputes with Iran.
[Aladashvili] I would not put it so directly since it is a political
issue. Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are unlikely to
deteriorate so much, but the fact remains that neither Iran, nor
Armenia nor Russia are happy with the cooperation between Azerbaijan
and Israel.
[Bolkvadze] What about Turkey?
[Aladashvili] Surprising as it may be, Turkey is not happy either
because relations between Turkey and Israel got tense over the
flotilla incident. Before that, military and technical cooperation
between Turkey and Israel was so close that Israeli pilots practiced
in Turkey’s airspace.
[Bolkvadze] What is the military potential of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani armies themselves in terms of numbers, training, and
combat potential?
[Aladashvili] When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1992, the armaments
that had been deployed in the republics were divided.
[Bolkvadze] And quotas were established. It has been said that everyone
has violated these quotas except for us [Georgia].
[Aladashvili] Every republic of the South Caucasus was allowed
to have a maximum of 220 tanks, 220 infantry fighting vehicles,
285 artillery systems larger than 100mm, 100 combat planes, and 50
attack helicopters. However, when the supply depots were disbanded,
Azerbaijan was left with the largest quantity of armaments, followed
by Armenia, while we were outdone by everyone as usual. Azerbaijan
has procured large amounts of armaments recently and its military
budget has increased to 3.2 billion dollars.
[Bolkvadze] It turns out that Azerbaijan’s military budget alone is
as big as our entire budget…[ellipsis as published]
[Aladashvili] That is true. They also have larger armed forces than
Armenia.
[Bolkvadze] What is Armenia’s military budget?
[Aladashvili] It is much smaller than Azerbaijan’s.
[Bolkvadze] Is our budget still the smallest?
[Aladashvili] Yes. If I am not mistaken, it is 670 million lari
[approximately 411 million dollars] this year.
[Bolkvadze] Are Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s armed forces comparable?
[Aladashvili] It depends on what kind of a scenario is played out. The
first scenario is where no one intervenes and fighting takes place
between Armenia and the self-proclaimed republic of Nagornyy Karabakh
and Azerbaijan. The second scenario is where external forces intervene.
[Bolkvadze] What would you say about the likelihood that a conflict
will arise on Georgian territory?
[Aladashvili] This likelihood is very strong. Since we have a border
with both these countries, artillery fire and airstrikes could hit
our territory either by accident or on purpose if fighting breaks
out between them. This happened during the last war when both sides
laid mines on Georgian territory. We should also take account of the
fact that Georgian citizens of both Azerbaijani and Armenian origin
live in our border regions and it is possible that there will be some
tension among them. The Russia factor is the biggest threat because
Russia could use this as a pretext for invasion.
[Bolkvadze] Citing the need to supply the Gyumri base?
[Aladashvili] Naturally. If we give them passage voluntarily, we
will have problems with Azerbaijan. If we deny them passage, we will
have to fight a war with Russia. So, there is a lot to think about,
and things are not so simple.