US DEFENCE SALE BAN WON’T STOP AZERIS ARMING
By Shahla Sultanova
Institute for War and Peace Reporting IWPR
Caucasus Reporting #652
July 27 2012
UK
Substantial arms purchases mostly made in other ex-Soviet states.
The United States’ decision not to sell arms to Azerbaijan for fear
they could be used against Armenia will do little to curb the country’s
growing defence-sector acquisitions, experts say.
The US Department of State wanted to add Azerbaijan to the list of
countries eligible to buy American military equipment, specifically
for border protection and “police-type” activities. But it shelved the
plan on June 27, after Congressman Howard Berman wrote to Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton to argue that “this equipment could be used
to identify and possibly target Armenians in the border area for
surveillance or for attack”.
In the years since independence in 1991, Baku has developed a warm
relationship with Washington, with American oil firms coming in as
investors and Azerbaijan building closer ties with NATO, for example
by assisting the effort to supply forces in Afghanistan.
With substantial revenues coming in from oil exports, Azerbaijan has
been able to afford exponential rates of defence spending, going from
160 million US dollars in 2003 to a projected 3.6 billion dollars
this year. Foreign purchases include combat aircraft and helicopters,
artillery, and air-defence systems.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI, says
Azerbaijan showed the largest rise in military spending of any world
state last year – an increase of 88 per cent in real terms in the
previous year.
The military build-up has alarmed neighbouring Armenia, which fears
that a rearmed Azerbaijan might launch an offensive to recapture
Nagorny Karabakh, which has been controlled by a local Armenian
administration since 1994, when a ceasefire ended years of conflict.
Protracted negotiations led by the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation have not come up with a solution to Karabakh’s future
status that all sides can accept, and the truce is frequently marred
by localised shooting and skirmishes.
The US arms export ban is unlikely to interrupt the flow of Azerbaijani
arms purchases.
Reports by the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, UNODA,
and SIPRI’s databases for 2006-11 show that Azerbaijan bought armoured
vehicles from Turkey and South Africa, and drone planes from Israel.
(See Karabakh Claims Coup With Drone Plane Hit in this connection.)
These sources indicated that engines for the South African vehicles
were acquired from the United States, but nothing else.
Jasur Sumerinli, who heads the Doktrina defence research think-tank
in Baku, says US military assistance is largely confined to improving
communication equipment.
The State Department website confirms this, indicating that the US
helped upgrade the Azerbaijani navy’s navigation, communications,
and radar systems.
An examination of the budgets for US government assistance indicates
that Washington provided Azerbaijan with 142 million dollars in
aid to promote peace and security in 2002-11. The main aims of this
assistance were to enhance Azerbaijan’s counter-terrorism capacity,
help it prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in
the Caspian region, and as part of this, to improve border controls
and thus block illegal shipments.
There are even some arms sales in the other direction. In 2010,
Defence Industry Minister Yaver Jamalov told local media that his
ministry had signed three deals under which American firms would buy
Russian-pattern machine guns and mortars, and ammunition for both
weapon types as well as for Kalashnikovs.
Yashar Jafarli, a defence expert who heads the Azerbaijan Public
Association for Security and Defence, says the US does not feature
in major arms purchases.
“Azerbaijan mostly does arm deals with Commonwealth of Independent
States members like Russia and Ukraine,” explained.
One reason for this is that Azerbaijan continues to use Soviet-pattern
military equipment, so it makes sense to continue buying new items
and spare parts from Russia and other suppliers that manufacture to
the same sets of standards.
UNODA reports that over the last decade, Azerbaijan has acquired 170
T-72 tanks, 150 armoured personnel carriers, over 320 large-calibre
artillery pieces, 95 missile systems, and 19,000 Kalashnikov rifles
from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. It has also acquired Russian-made
Uran missiles, which are for naval use and are therefore destined
for deployment on the Caspian Sea.
Sumerinli said talk of Azerbaijan deploying its military might
against its Armenian neighbours was unfounded. The government had
signed agreement formally committing it to a peaceful resolution of
the Karabakh dispute.
“Supposing Azerbaijan wished to attack Armenia, this would be resisted
by the international community,” he said. “Besides, if Azerbaijan
really did want to ignore the international community and attack
Armenia, it would do so using weapons purchased from the Commonwealth
of Independent States.”
Azerbaijan’s defence ministry refused to comment on the US decision,
and on military cooperation with Washington in general.
A spokesman for the foreign ministry, Elman Abdullayev, said the
country’s arms purchases were designed for defence rather than offence.
“That is absolutely justifiable given that Azerbaijani territory
[Karabakh and adjoining areas] is occupied by Armenia. This country
does not intend to use its weapons against other countries,” he said,
without specifying whether Armenia was one of those countries.
Despite the recent decision, neither Sumerinli and Jafarli believes
Washington is wholeheartedly committed to banning sales of military
equipment to Baku.
“The US will think of some ways of assisting Azerbaijan, which is
an extremely important country for it,” Sumerinli said. “It might
sell military items to Azerbaijan via Israel or Turkey, with which
Azerbaijan has strong collaborative ties.”
Shahla Sultanova is a freelance reporter in Azerbaijan.
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