LEADING EXPERT ARIEL COHEN ABOUT ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA, IRANIAN AND MIDDLE EAST ISSUES, AZERBAIJANI-US RELATIONS AND CASPIAN ENERGY PROJECTS
Trend
Oct 3 2012
Azerbaijan
Pretty transparent elections give Georgia a higher level of functioning
democracy, leading expert of the Heritage Foundation for Russian and
Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy and member of Trend
Expert Council, Ariel Cohen told Trend in an interview.
“The fact that the elections had so many observers and were managed
in a pretty transparent way gives Georgia a much higher level of
functioning democracy, than for example Russian Duma elections in
December, when there was a lot of criticism from Russian and foreign
observers,” Cohen said.
Parliamentary elections were held in Georgia on October 1. Around 14
parties and two political blocs participated in the elections.
Parliament will receive more authority in 2013 after amendments
to the Constitution take force resulting in the president’s power
being reduced.
The opposition coalition “Georgian Dream” Party leads after counting
almost 20 percent of votes in the CEC.
The ruling “United National Movement – more good to the people”
Party ranks second with 42.08 percent.
According to Cohen, very few people predicted this outcome. “I must
say the polling by Georgian dream that indicated their victory for
a while was good quality,” he said.
Cohen believes that now it is a real test for Georgia because there
is no certainty of a smooth transition.
“It is a first democratic transition, it a test and it is up to
Mikheil Saakashvili and Bidzina Ivanishvili and their people to work
together to be able to enact that transition without violence, without
bloodshed. So it’s a very difficult, very sensitive very precarious
time for Georgia,” Cohen said.
Airport in occupied territories of Azerbaijan
According to Cohen, Armenia does not have the right to open airport
in Khankendi in the occupied territories of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“According to the international laws these are occupied territories.
The occupying power does not have the right to open such an airport,”
he said.
This week Armenia has stated about launching the airport in Khankendi
in the occupied territories of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was previously
reported that it is planned to start the Yerevan-Khankendi-Yerevan
flights soon.
According to Cohen, the launching of an airport is a step that
violates international law. He also mentioned that according to the
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) this step is illegal.
Cohen also believes that this Armenia’s step is not a constructive
one, and this is an issue that the Azerbaijani government has to
communicate in a clear way both to the international authorities and
to Armenia itself.
The expert said that it is in the interest of both countries and it
is in the interest of peoples of Azerbaijan and Armenia to have peace,
to have economic development, and to have Armenia a part of East-West
corridor that Azerbaijan and Georgia are successfully implementing.
According to Cohen, insisting on an intransigent position is
backfiring, “is a boomerang against Armenian people”, resulting in
emigration from Armenia and the low living standard.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France and the U.S. –
are currently holding peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council’s four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
Azerbaijan-US relations
Cohen believes Azerbaijan is a key country for the development of
market economy and democracy in the Caucasus and the Caspian region,
and the US should develop relationship with this country.
“I think both parties – the republicans and democrats are interested in
the development of democracy, market economy and energy in the Caucasus
and in the Caspian. Azerbaijan is a key country for that,” Cohen said.
Cohen stressed that the geopolitical location of Azerbaijan in the
crossroads of East-West and North-South is very important.
“The development of Caspian resources, including energy is important
as an alternative to the unstable Middle East where there is a lot
of violence and extremism,” Cohen said.
Azerbaijan, according to an expert, is a different model – model of
a tolerant society.
“And I think for that the US should develop our relationship,”
Cohen said.
Cohen mentioned that Azerbaijan is just opening a new railroad that
will connect the Caspian with Turkey and Europe.
“That is also important. And in that respect I hope that our
relationship will continue,” Cohen added.
The 183 kilometre long railway section of the Akhalkalaki Marabda
Tbilisi rail road has to be reconstructed in the framework of Baku
Tbilisi Kars project in order to increase the capacity up to 15 million
tons of freight a year. A centre on the carriage transition from
Georgian track to European is going to be constructed in Akhalkalaki.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway will increase the flow of container,
bulk and other types of cargo from Asia to Europe. The Marmaris
project envisaging the construction of a tunnel under the Bosporus
will be implemented during this period. This will open a railway
communication to Europe.
Iran’s nuclear program
Speaking of issues related to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ariel
Cohen said that when Iranian regime not compromising, it leaves no
choice for U.S. but to impose sanctions on the country.
“When the Iranian regime is not compromising, is not meeting the
international community and its demands even half way they are
leaving no choice to the US and to others but to impose sanctions,”
the expert noted.
Cohen also stressed that whoever is the president after the elections
in the U.S., he will have to make a decision what has to happen if
the sanctions against Iran fail.
He stressed that the U.S. and the Obama administration were doing
everything possible to prevent a military solution to the issue,
however the Iranian leadership makes things more difficult by not
suspending their nuclear program.
“I think the Iranian leadership is making it almost impossible by
insisting on continuation of their nuclear program that the Europeans,
the U.S., and even Russia and China when devoted for the sanctions
understand how dangerous it is not just for the Middle East but for
the whole world,” Cohen said.
“We cannot afford to have another nuclear armed state that has
an extremism regime that was extremely critical of Azerbaijan,
Azerbaijani model, Azerbaijani people but also is in confrontation
with other countries with Sunni Arab countries, Israel, Europe and
the U.S.,” he added.
The United States imposed sanctions on Iran after 1979 Islamic
revolution, while more recent rounds of sanctions by the US and EU
were imposed on Tehran on the pretext of its peaceful nuclear program.
The European Union has imposed restrictions on cooperation with Iran
in foreign trade, financial services, energy sectors and technologies,
and banned the provision of insurance and reinsurance by insurers in
member-states to Iran and Iranian-owned companies.
Iran insists that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes,
and warned that it will retaliate if attacked.
Unrests in Syria
There is a great confrontation in Syria now, Cohen said, speaking of
the current unrests in Syria, that have been going on for more than
a year and a half.
“It is essentially a battlefield between extremist Shia elements coming
from Hezbollah in Lebanon and from Iran… and some of the radical
Islamist Sunni forces, such as al-Qaeda Salafists, who trickle in to
Syria from Iraq, from the Gulf, from Egypt and etc.,” Cohen told Trend.
“So it is a battle ground between the extremists on both sides. And
it is a tragedy, because a lot of people get killed as a result,”
he added.
Cohen said that the majority of population of Syria are Sunni, which
feel that they were discriminated, and they are fighting the Assad
regime now.
“The regime is using heavy weapons including airplanes, including
artillery against their own people. I just do not see how that regime
can win militarily against their own people,” Cohen said.
According to Cohen, there is also even a greater confrontation in
Syria between China and Russia on one hand and the US and Western
Europe on the other hand.
Cohen believes that in the end unfortunately this bloodshed will lead
to more and more radicalization.
According to UN, the total number of victims of the conflict in
Syria is nearing 20,000. More than 230,000 have become refugees with
around three million in need of humanitarian assistance. The Syrian
authorities say they oppose the well-armed militants.
Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline
Regarding the Trans Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP), Cohen said its
construction will be a great step forward for Azerbaijan.
“I am sure that sooner or later it (TANAP) is going to be constructed
and that it will be a great step forward for Azerbaijan because it
will provide another whole stream of money for Azerbaijan and economic
development and improvement of living standard,” the expert said.
The construction of TANAP will be also good for Turkey because it makes
Turkey even more serious transit country for energy, Cohen believes.
“And it will be good for Europe because it gives Europe an additional
and alternative source of pipe gas not from Russia but from stable
Caspian region,” Cohen said.
TANAP project envisages construction of the pipeline from the eastern
border of Turkey to the country’s western border to supply gas from
Azerbaijani Shah Deniz gas field to Europe through Turkey. On June,
26 Azerbaijan and Turkey signed an intergovernmental agreement on
TANAP implementation.
At present, a 20 per cent share in TANAP belongs to Turkish BOTAS, 80
per cent and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). The initial
capacity of the pipeline is expected to reach 16 billion cubic meters
a year. About six billion cubic meters will be delivered to Turkey,
and the rest – to Europe.
Trans Caspian Pipeline
Trans Caspian Pipeline, which is proposed to be laid from the
Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijani, should be a reality,
Cohen said.
“But in order to have that reality you have to have a commitment by
Turkmenistan to connect its gas system to Azerbaijan and then take
it through TANAP (Trans Anatolian Pipeline) to Turkey and Europe,”
Cohen said.
Cohen believes that for whatever reason Turkmenistan felt more
comfortable dealing with China, which is now willing to get pretty
much all of the supply of Turkmen gas.
Moreover, according to Cohen, Russia is very interested in Turkmen gas.
However the expert believes that an additional direction for Turkmen
gas via Azerbaijan to Europe would be “a terrific idea”.
Among the possible competitors to Trans Caspian Pipeline, Cohen
mentioned TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) project,
however the expert believes that the security issues in Pakistan and
Afghanistan are serious problems for realization of this project.
According to Cohen, Trans Caspian Pipeline could be technologically
feasible to connect Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, however unresolved
status of the Caspian Sea is an obstacle on the way of its
implementation.
Negotiations between Turkmenistan and the EU and other countries on
the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline have been on-going
since the late 90s.
In September, 2011 the EU Council gave a mandate for negotiations
between the EU, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to build the Trans-Caspian
gas pipeline.
However, later, Iran and Russia expressed negative attitude toward
this project. Tehran and Moscow think that the pipeline construction
will damage the Caspian Sea environment.
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