AZERBAIJAN SEEKS SECURITY FROM THE IRANIAN THREAT
Strategy Page
June 28 2013
June 28, 2013: Azerbaijan has begun receiving a billion dollars-worth
of weapons it ordered from Russia last year. This includes 100 T-90C
tanks and high-tech truck mounted multiple rocket launchers. This
was in addition to an earlier deal worth over two billion dollars and
included S-300 (similar to the U.S. Patriot) air defense systems. The
Azeri government says this is all about Armenia, and a long-time
territorial dispute. But Armenia doesn’t have an air force. It’s
really all about Iran.
In addition to over $3 billion worth of Russian weapons another
$1.6 billion worth was ordered from Israel. This preceded the billion
dollar Russian order and included a lot of high-tech stuff the Russians
cannot provide. This included Gabriel anti-ship missiles, five Heron
and five Searcher UAVs, Barak-8 air defense systems (range of ten
kilometers) and a Green Pine radar system, which Israel uses for its
missile defense system. Green Pine can detect incoming ballistic
missiles up to 500 kilometers away but can also spot approaching
warplanes. Armenia does not have ballistic missiles, Iran does.
Azerbaijan has been having more and more problems with Iran. Last
year, for example, police arrested 22 suspected Iranian agents and
accused them of planning terror attacks on American and Israeli
targets. Azerbaijan has been chasing down and arresting Iran-backed
terrorists and spies for years. This time they discovered that some of
the people they arrested had been recruited by Iran, as spies, as far
back as 1999. Now Iran is increasingly using terrorism to influence
what goes on in Azerbaijan and the Azeri government does not like it.
Iran has long harbored an intense interest in Azerbaijan. This is
because most of the Turkic and Moslem Azeris live in Iran. Up until
1813, modern Azerbaijan was part of Iran. Then the Russians showed up.
Armenia and Azerbaijan were the last conquests of Russia as it advanced
down the Caucasus region (between the Black and Caspian Seas) in the
18th and 19th centuries. The Russians stopped when they ran into
the Turkish and Iranian empires, but not before taking a chunk of
Azerbaijan from Iran. The Iranians have not forgotten.
In effect, most of “Azerbaijan” is in Iran and Iran has long hoped
to reunite all Azeris under their rule. Currently, about a quarter
of the Iranian population is Azeri and many have risen to senior
positions in the government. Despite that, most Azeris would like
all Azeris united in a single Azerbaijan. This is not a popular idea
within Iran. The Russians, on the other hand, have come to accept
the 1991 loss of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Iranians, both individually and collectively, have been increasingly
aggressive towards Azerbaijan over the last decade. For example,
last year hackers calling themselves the Iranian Cyber Army defaced
media web sites in Azerbaijan. This was in response to Azerbaijan
arresting locals and Iranians for trying to organize terror attacks
on Israeli targets. Iran is also unhappy with the growing diplomatic
and economic ties Azerbaijan has with Israel. Azerbaijan ordering
military equipment from Israeli was very unpopular with Iran, which
believes that Israel must be destroyed and that any Islamic state
that supports Israel deserves much the same.
Three years ago all this Iranian hostility, and disputes with
neighboring Armenia led oil rich Azerbaijan to increase its defense
budget 87 percent to $3.1 billion. That has since increased to $3.7
billion. Nearly half these larger budgets are being spent to modernize
the armed forces. A lot of the cash was quietly spent on improved
counter-terrorism capabilities. Israel was providing advisors and
special equipment to detect and deal with growing Iranian sponsored
Islamic terrorism in Azerbaijan. This Israeli connection and especially
the growing success of the Azeris in countering Iranian terror efforts,
has infuriated the Iranians.
Located on the Caspian Sea in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan was part of the
Soviet Union until 1991, and much of its military equipment is of Cold
War vintage. Azerbaijan is 95 percent Moslem (85 percent Shia) and has
some serious territorial disputes with its Christian neighbor Armenia.
The two countries have been at each other’s throats for nearly two
decades because of a land dispute. Although Azerbaijan has three times
more people and much more money (because of oil), the Armenians are
better soldiers and the dispute has been stalemated. Azerbaijan has
a population of nine million and a GPD of $72 billion, compared to
3.2 million Armenians who have a GDP of $10 billion. Azerbaijan is
determined to reverse this string of defeats, no matter the cost.
Two years ago Armenia signed a pact with Russia that, in effect,
puts it under the protection of Russia. The deal extends the lease
on a Russian military base in Armenia from 2020 to 2044. The 3,000
man Russian force in Armenia may be increased and Russia, in effect,
guarantees Armenia’s security. Armenia needs all the help it can get,
as it is a landlocked Christian nation surrounded by three hostile
Moslem states (Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran). To the north there is
Georgia which, while Christian, has its own problems with Russia. This
deal makes any major move against Armenia by Azerbaijan very risky.
While the Russians want to remain friendly with Azerbaijan, they have
definitely taken sides here.
In return for this security Armenia will have to follow Russia’s lead
in diplomacy and any other area the Russians feel is important.
Meanwhile, the Russians will provide new weapons and equipment for
the 43,000 troops in the Armenian military and help arm an even larger
reserve force.
The only active enemy Armenia has at the moment is Azerbaijan. Both
countries continue to disagree over possession of Nagorno-Karabakh,
a 4,400 square kilometer district, full of Armenians, surrounded by
Azerbaijani territory. Technically, there has been a truce between
Armenia and Azerbaijan since 1994. But it has been a hot truce.
Between 1991 and 1994 there was a war between the two countries over
Nagorno-Karabakh, which Armenia won. Some 20,000 people died and over
a million (400,000 Armenians and 700,000 Azerbaijanis) fled their homes
as Armenia occupied 31,000 square kilometers of Azerbaijani territory,
to connect Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Most of the refugees were
from areas dominated by one group, who drove out the minority. Some
40,000 Azerbaijani civilians were driven from Nagorno-Karabakh. The
situation was humiliating for Azerbaijan, who saw it as yet another
example of more powerful and wealthier (via oil fields) Moslems being
defeated by a smaller number of armed and more capable non-Moslems.
But Azerbaijan is making a serious effort to create an effective
military and revive their economy. Azeri defeats at the hands of
better trained, led, and organized Armenian troops were caused,
in part, by Azerbaijani corruption and double dealing among themselves.
Moreover, the Armenians have a military tradition going back
centuries. The Azeris are working hard to redress the military balance,
thus the Armenian need for a Russian alliance and the sharp jump in
Azeri military spending. But while Armenia only has to worry about
one enemy, Azerbaijan has both Armenia and Iran to deal with.
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