MANOEUVRES OF SPECIAL IMPORTANCE
by political analyst Sergey Ilich Konovalov
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Jan 16 2012
Russia
The General Staff is developing a plan for large-scale strategic
exercises based on the premise of a possible attack by Israel or the
United States against Iran.
The Russian Defence Ministry has begun preparation for the
“Caucasus-2012” [“Kavkaz-2012”] strategic command staff exercise.
According to official information from the military department,
compared to last year’s similar manoeuvres, these exercises will be
on a larger scale and closer to current military-political realities.
Manoeuvres will take place not only in Southern Russia but also on the
territory of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Armenia. The “Caucasus-2012”
strategic command staff exercise, scheduled for September, will be
the main event in the armed forces’ activity this year. The scenario
for the exercises is currently under development, and in the opinion
of military experts preparation for the command staff exercise will
include the actual rehearsal of combat training tasks in connection
with a potential war by the United States and a number of other
countries against Iran and other potential conflicts in the Caspian
and South Caucasus region.
This is not the first year that exercises with this name have been
conducted. Exercises of the same name were held in 2008, from 16 July
through 2 August, near the borders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It
was largely thanks to the “Caucasus-2008” exercises that Russia,
albeit with unjustified costs and losses, was able to beat Georgia
in the brief week-long war. Manoeuvres of this kind later became
traditional for troops deployed in the Southern Military District.
Let us note, first, that this year’s exercises will not be
operational-tactical, but strategic exercises. That is, the tasks
in the Southern Military District’s zone of responsibility will
be rehearsed not only by all categories and branches of the armed
forces (including the Air Force, Navy, Strategic Missile Forces,
Military-Space Defence Forces, and Air Defence Forces) but also by
other security structures – the MVD [Ministry of Internal Affairs],
FSB [Federal Security Service], Federal Protection Service, Ministry
for Emergency Situations, and so forth. That is, the country’s entire
military organization will take part in rehearsing the command staff
exercise tasks. Second, during the manoeuvres one of the main aims
will be the rehearsal of new net-centric types of combat operation
(that is involving all means of electronic and space surveillance
and communications, unmanned aircraft, high-precision weapons, and so
forth) using new automated control systems. This was first announced
at official level in December of last year by Chief of General Staff
Army General Nikolay Makarov during a meeting with foreign states’
military attaches.
The military leader’s words are backed up by specific deeds. The
Southern Military District’s official sources report that formations
stationed in the North Caucasus have received nearly 20 modernized
command staff vehicles (they are included in the resources of every
motorized or armoured battalion) which use the GLONASS system for
geolocation and intelligence. Incidentally, this system has been
installed on all new helicopters and combat aircraft (the Southern
Military District’s pool of these has been renewed almost 100 per cent)
conducting surveillance in the district’s zone of responsibility and
has also been installed on artillery and air defence weaponry.
Within this context the troops have been provided with the new
“Barnaul-T” air defence automated control system. This system already
monitors air space not only above Russia but also above the entire
territory of the South Caucasus. This is of considerable importance,
since the 102d Russian military base, which is stationed in Armenia,
is separated from the Southern Military District’s main grouping.
Candidate of Military Sciences Colonel Anatoliy Tsyganok, leader of
the Centre for Military Forecasting, believes that “it looks as though
preparations for the ‘Caucasus-2012’ command staff exercises have
begun already largely because of the increased military tension in
the Persian Gulf zone.” “Several post-Soviet countries of the South
Caucasus could be involved in a potential war against Iran. How in
that eventuality are we to ensure the ability to function of the
Russian troop groupings stationed abroad, in Armenia, for instance?
The General Staff will evidently be planning some preemptive measures,
which will include learning how to organize rear supplies for the
troops under critical conditions,” the expert says.
To corroborate his assumptions, Tsyganok cites yesterday’s announcement
by Southern Military District press service chief Igor Gorbul that the
district’s military pipelayers “within the framework of preparation
for the ‘Caucasus-2012’ strategic command exercises have started
classes to develop practical skills associated with deploying main
pipelines and pumping fuel.” Let us note that only the Russian Army
has pipelaying troops as a troop category. In June 2011, for instance,
during tactical exercises they laid the 75-kilometre long main pipeline
from the North Ossetian population centre of Ardon along the Caucasus
ridge to the border with South Ossetia.
Of course, the “Caucasus-2012” command staff exercises, the
preparations for them, and the rehearsal of the relevant tasks are
of a planned nature. “But that does not mean they will not be amended
and are not linked to the specific military-political situation in the
Caucasus region, where the Russian Federation has specific geopolitical
interests,” Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy for Geopolitical
Problems, believes. “It is to defend these interests that manoeuvres,
firing exercises, and so forth are being organized.”
It looks as though the situation on the country’s Southern borders
and in particular the possibility that Israel or the United States
could strike against Iran is seriously perturbing the Russian military
leadership.
[translated from Russian]