The Economist, UK
Nov 25 2004
A court freeze on a contested election
>>From The Economist Global Agenda
As huge protests continue in Ukraine, the country’s supreme court has
suspended the publication of official results from Sunday’s
presidential vote while it judges claims by the opposition candidate,
Viktor Yushchenko, that widespread ballot fraud has robbed him of
victory
ON THURSDAY November 25th, the fourth day of massive protests
following Ukraine’s deeply flawed presidential election, the
opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, again addressed at least
100,000 supporters in the main square of the capital, Kiev. He
pledged to fight on until he has overturned the official results of
Sunday’s run-off vote, which awarded the presidency to Viktor
Yanukovich (currently the country’s prime minister) whereas exit
polls had shown Mr Yushchenko heading for a clear victory. Within
hours, the vast crowds of demonstrators braving Ukraine’s bitter
winter had something to warm their hearts: the country’s supreme
court announced that it would hear Mr Yushchenko’s complaints of
ballot-rigging; and it banned the electoral commission from
officially publishing the results in the meantime. This prevents Mr
Yanukovich from being inaugurated.
In an inconclusive emergency session of the parliament on Tuesday, Mr
Yushchenko had declared himself the rightful winner and had even
sworn the presidential oath. Accusing Mr Yanukovich and the outgoing
president, Leonid Kuchma, of engineering an electoral fraud, Mr
Yushchenko said that, as a result, the country was now “on the brink
of civil conflict”. As the crowds of protesters swelled, there were
rumours—officially denied—that the Ukrainian army was sending tanks
to Kiev; and others—denied by Moscow—that Russia had sent its special
forces across the border.
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe reports from
its independent electoral observation mission in Ukraine. The Kremlin
publishes press releases from President Putin.The EU issues
statements on the elections and gives information on foreign
relations. See also the US State Department. “Governments on the WWW”
provides a comprehensive resource on the government and politics of
Ukraine, including previous election results.
While pursuing his case in the supreme court, Mr Yushchenko is
keeping up the pressure on the streets. His supporters have begun
blocking roads and have called a national strike—though coal miners
in the Russian-speaking east of Ukraine, which is Mr Yanukovich’s
power base, said they would not stop work.
How Ukraine’s conflict turns out may have far-reaching effects on the
future of eastern Europe. Russia has already seen several of its
former satellites break away and join both the European Union and the
American-led defence alliance, NATO. Mr Yushchenko proposes that
Ukraine do the same, whereas Mr Yanukovich argues that maintaining
the country’s traditional ties to Moscow should take priority. If the
second-largest economy in the former Soviet Union goes West, so to
speak, Russia’s dreams of reasserting its grip on the remaining bits
of its former empire may be frustrated. And if Ukraine starts to
enjoy western-style human rights and prosperity, voters in Russia
might begin to wonder why they cannot have the same.
During the election campaign, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin,
twice visited Ukraine to lend support to Mr Yanukovich. Even before
the Ukrainian election commission announced the official result on
Wednesday, Mr Putin jumped the gun and congratulated his candidate on
his “victory”. But with the EU, America and Canada (which has 1m
residents of Ukrainian descent) all strongly condemning the elections
as fraudulent, Mr Putin has since wavered: calling on both sides to
act within the law; then congratulating Mr Yanukovich a second time;
and then, after meeting EU leaders on Thursday (see article), calling
for the matter to be settled in court.
Mr Kuchma, meanwhile, stayed silent until Tuesday night, when he
issued a statement calling for talks between the two sides.
Aleksander Kwasniewski, the president of Poland (which has already
made the jump from east to west and is now encouraging Ukraine to
follow), said on Thursday he intended to visit Ukraine shortly to try
to broker such talks.
The conflict’s eventual outcome remains uncertain. Mr Yushchenko’s
supporters are hoping for something like the non-violent “rose
revolution” a year ago in Georgia, another former Soviet state, in
which huge popular demonstrations forced the country’s then
president, Edward Shevardnadze, to resign following dubious
parliamentary elections. Mr Yanukovich and his supporters, in turn,
so far show no sign of backing down. On Wednesday, Mr Yushchenko
hinted at a possible compromise, saying that he would be prepared to
stand again in a re-run of the second round of voting.
What happens now depends on several factors. First, the strength of
ordinary Ukrainians’ feelings about the outcome—how sick they are of
the current regime and the business oligarchs who prop it up, and how
far they are prepared to go to defend Mr Yushchenko’s claims of
victory. Strikes, blockades and protests could soon bring much of the
country to a halt. However, staying on the streets through the
freezing winter would demand great fortitude.
The loyalty or otherwise of the state bureaucracy to Mr Yanukovich,
who recently gave them a big pay rise, could be a determining factor.
On Thursday, the deputy economy minister, Oleh Haiduk, resigned in
protest at the official election results. A number of Ukrainian
diplomats around the world have signed a document denouncing them;
and local authorities in Kiev and several other big cities have
refused to recognise them.
In particular, it is not yet clear how the security forces will react
to any escalation in the protests. On Monday, they issued a statement
promising that any lawlessness would be put down “quickly and
firmly”. But Mr Yushchenko has urged the Ukrainian forces to come
over to his side. It was reported that a mid-ranking officer in an
elite riot-police unit had been sacked after denouncing his superiors
for issuing “illegal” orders to use force against protesters.
Meanwhile, the defence minister has insisted that the army has not
been mobilised and has asked it to stay calm.
International pressure may also have a significant effect on the
outcome. As well as the pressure from America and the EU, a key
determining factor will be the attitude of Mr Putin. He would risk
serious difficulties in his relations with both Europe and America if
he were to back Mr Yanukovich in repressing the protests. Towards the
climax of the Georgian revolution last year, Mr Putin seemed to lose
patience with Mr Shevardnadze, perhaps contributing to his downfall.
Does his wavering response to the Ukrainian conflict mean he is
already hedging his bets?
Though Mr Yushchenko is now hoping for a Georgian-style bloodless
revolution to deliver him the presidency, there are also some less
promising precedents among the former Soviet states: only two months
ago, Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenka, “won” a rigged
referendum to allow him to run for re-election. The EU decided this
week to tighten its sanctions against those in his government it
blames for the fraudulent ballot. Azerbaijan and Armenia also held
flawed elections last year: in Azerbaijan, there were riots after the
son of the incumbent president won amid widespread intimidation and
bribery, but these were violently put down; and in Armenia, voters
reacted with quiet despair at the re-election of their president amid
reports of ballot-stuffing. If Ukraine follows these precedents,
hopes for change there, and in other parts of the former Soviet
Union, may be dashed.
–Boundary_(ID_Da8uNxdYnbt6gFhXyNXkzA)–
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress