Author: Arpi Talalian

In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest is candidate of historical sciences Mihran Hakobyan is։

The main theses of the interview are below.

• Today, the US is actually in a deadlock because many people there have viewed Iran as a state similar to Iraq, which is not the case at all. Iran has never in history allowed anyone who wants to be an adversary to cross the Euphrates. In terms of resources, no country can beat Iran in a conventional war. A ground operation is needed to win, and Iran needs 6-7 million soldiers to win, which no one can afford. They will hurt Iran, but they cannot win. The US has already suffered $10 billion in damage, which will take a long time to recover. Two American aircraft carriers escaped because they understood that Iran can attack. In addition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has seriously damaged the region.

• In 1979, when the USSR invaded Afghanistan, didn’t they calculate that they were entering a 10-year war? At first, they decided to solve the issue with the limited resources of the 40th Army. Now it is the same with the USA. Maybe there were calculations, maybe not. But the logic of war has changed. For example, if the PATRIOT used to shoot down missiles, now it pursues other goals. The US produces 600 of that system a year. What will he do with it: take care of his needs, provide allies? It’s complicated. In the case of Iran, the matter is complicated by the fact that Iran has been preparing for this war for many years, it knew that it would suffer heavy losses and is acting in advance. with a planned plan. Iran’s missiles are hidden in the mountains, almost undetectable. The overthrow of Iran’s military-political leadership will, of course, affect Iran, but it will not be of critical importance, because Iran knows when, who and with whom it will be replaced. Iran’s leadership consciously went to martyrdom:

• From Trump’s press conferences in recent days, it can be seen that he is also at a dead end, he doesn’t know what to do. Humanity, unfortunately, does not learn from history. There are already reports that Trump has asked Putin to help in negotiations with the leadership of Iran… The same Putin, whose country they allegedly did something against and demonized Putin… 

• It is not excluded that they made an “assumption” against Trump, or presented something else, while the reality is completely different.

• Iran will demand a price for the ceasefire. Trump started the war together with Israel when he wanted, but ending the war will not be decided by the USA alone, because the other party will want a big price. Donald Trump has started a war in the Middle East that will be very difficult to stop. That’s not how life and politics work. Trump cannot say like Nicole: whatever happens, we will not consider ourselves defeated and go home:

• During the entire history of the existence of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s foreign policy actions did not contain elements of religious fanaticism. 

• It is never possible to hear the representatives of the Shiite sect say, let’s do jihad in, for example, Denmark, or go blow up Paris.:

• It is a political and social axiom. the minority is always more purposeful, more organized, and therefore more passionate and aggressive. That’s what sectarian, religious groups are like in the US.

• In the last 30 years, everyone has understood that the United States is a paper tiger and cannot even compete with middle-class countries such as Iran. He’s targeting weak countries like Yugoslavia, Venezuela, and so on. At this point, it’s obvious that Trump is panicking, he doesn’t know how to end this war, because it’s obvious that nobody is going to go to a ground war against Iran. They start the war when they want and end it when they can. Now, I repeat, it does not depend on the USA. There is no expert in the USA who is not amazed by this war, they do not understand why it was needed. For the first time, a majority of the US population is not on the side of Israel. People see that led by Netanyahu Today, Israel is Mr. Genocide, they have seen what Israel has done in Palestine, Gaza and other areas, it is doing what the Nazis did in the past.:

• How did you decide that, for example, France or Israel should have nuclear weapons and Iran should not? What is missing, why can’t it have, is there a parameter by which it is possible to say that it is fair for the French to have nuclear weapons and, for example, the Iranians not?

• The developments of recent years have shown that the country that has nuclear weapons is sovereign. Well, let them try to do the same with North Korea as they are doing with Iran today. even nuclear weapons will fall on American cities. Life proved that the right one was North Korea. How can one allow the leader of one country to steal from the leader of another country? What is stealing or destroying a head of state? Throughout human history, there has always been respect for enemy leaders. The rules of the game have changed today. In the 21st century, a member of the United Nations, a democratically formed head of state is assassinated. What’s wrong with Trump, he’s over 80, he’s here today, he’s gone tomorrow, what about the others? Many countries realize this and try to distance themselves from the USA. Trump’s policies will have consequences in both the medium and long term:

• Of course, there are several different versions, but it is not excluded that Iran, although it denied it, sent an anti-aircraft missile in the direction of Nakhichevan itself as a warning to Azerbaijan. In Iran, they understand, don’t they, what small airports like Nakhijevan and similar airports are for. They are ideal for organizing UAV flights. And they understand it well in Iran. Aliyev Artsakh in 2020 Didn’t they give it just like that… Aliyev will have to pay the price for what he got in Nagorno Karabakh. that victory was given to him in advance in 2020, not because of Aliyev’s beautiful eyes…

• If Aliyev sends humanitarian aid to Iran, it means that he is in a very difficult situation. Aliyev himself will not decide whether to attack Iran from his territory or not. When they say, he will do it. The moment he refused, the next second he will not be in power, Gaddafi’s day will fall. Ahudoghov is waiting so that he doesn’t suddenly get a call like this, so that they don’t tell him that you have to give up your territory to carry out flights and strikes against Iran… We don’t know if Aliyev and Israel agreed on the price of Artsakh, or if they told him to wait, we will tell you.:

• As Aliyev says, we use Armenia’s airspace without asking, they have the same perception about land routes. Who should they ask, Nikol Pashinyan… are you serious… Nikol Pashinyan can be taken to participate in various events, political weaklings will be thrown against him, he will feel good wearing Gorbachev’s hat, he will come here, he will sell to the people…

• During the Soviet years, Moscow did not want Azerbaijan to have direct contact with Nakhichevan, because in 1920-21, when the borders were drawn, there is a writing about it, the Bolsheviks decided to give Karabakh to Azerbaijan, Zangezur remains uncertain, and they give Nakhichevan to Armenia. But it didn’t happen like that, an interim decision was made to create an autonomous republic. Why an autonomous republic, because 43% of the population were Armenians, the status was decided, the Armenians did not disintegrate, and the Syunik issue was resolved, because Syunik was the wedge that the Turks said was stuck between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. And we are indebted to Anastas for the road connecting Armenia to Iran Mikoyan. Like Heydar Aliyev in the 1980s, now his son wants a big road, a track on which Armenia will not have sovereignty. This was ensured by TRIPP, which has lost its relevance as a result of Trump’s watery policies. Trump solved the conflict of decades, the blood of thousands of victims with a watery approach, in front of the cameras, with his mouth open, with a smile… Trump was not solving a problem, but a PR issue for American domestic politics:

• European political elites are far more depraved and ignorant than American elites, and Europeans are paying the price. The European authorities today are a group of ignoramuses whose foreign policy is run by a gang of puppets. They are applauding for the loss of Karabakh, and this is when Aliyev did in Karabakh what the Nazis did in Germany:

• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidani, US Vice President J.D. Vance, European officials, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaya Kalas, about support for Nikol Pashinyan in these elections. Nikol was given carte blanche, saying: go ahead, do whatever you want, fake the elections, the votes as much as you want, we stand behind you… Does the fact that the Armenian people are disappointed with the United States change much in the life of that country? They want to remove the Russians from the region, bring the Turks to their place, and that’s it, the Armenian people are very interested? 

• What everyone has done and what to do is clear, but it is not clear: what do the Armenian people want, do they want to have a state or do they want to become Turkish vassals?

Armenia is preparing for elections, what do the election participants say? They are in the same populist line, and for some reason, they say: Armenian people want this, we give it. They do not take into account public opinion, they shape it. And have you tried to shape public opinion? Why did you decide that this is what the people want in this degraded information flow? What is the difference between you and Nicole? There is no word on what we will do about the Karabakh issue. Did we digest it? In the end, they will say: well, Nikol was a traitor, he gave away Karabakh, clap your hands, move on… Generations will pass, let’s wait, let’s see when Azerbaijan will collapse, how will this issue be resolved… Is this what he wants? our people. If this is what our nation wants, then I and many others are not from this nation. And since there are many of us who think like this, I think our nation does not want that. Our national elite, our political parties offer nothing for many different reasons. One considers that it is not worth being good or bad with Russia and the other with America. Well, can we at least talk about Karabakh?

• Armenians do not decide whether the Artsakh issue is open or closed. This is reality and geopolitics, and you cannot ignore it. When the Kremlin’s direct agent liberal Venediktov comes to Yerevan, he manages to give 50 interviews in a few days, he meets different people in different cafes all day, no one pays attention to the fact that in his interviews he draws a red line with the idea that you do not decide whether to open or close the issue of Artsakh. At some point, it will be in the interests of some superpower to open the issue of Artsakh, therefore, is it possible to be a subject, not an object? 

• How many pennies are those pan-Armenian parties worth if they are not able to make noise about the Artsakh issue in the countries where they live? Don’t they have someone to go and stand in front of the White House with a poster? I’m not saying anything resourceful. I’m not saying that you haven’t been able to create a competitive media outlet in the US for so many years that will form an opinion. They cannot publish an article in the leading media. Let them, another time they will talk about pan-Armenian agendas, they will say: we are a global nation, we have pan-Armenian parties. What happened to Artsakh made it clear that all these are myths.

It turned out that dying for the Motherland was also a myth… It turned out that there can be a government in Armenia that Artsakh can hand over, bow to the Turks and remain glued to its seat until today. Do you remember, don’t you, that the land grantor was given the land for 800 hectares, which, later on, turned out to be a false number… Today, the public is in public drunkenness. its end is either death or awakening. When you wanted to stand up, achieve something, you did it, when you wanted to put yourself in the place of something big, you failed. If a person is sick, he must come to terms with that reality and be treated. A diagnosis must be made.

• There is no example in the history of the world when the country switched to a professional army and was not destroyed.

• You lost and you lost badly, Armenian people, you were humiliated. And until the Armenian nation accepts this and stops putting itself in the place of an ostrich, it will continue like this all the time. But it has a limit. It’s going to break somewhere. You cannot forever not understand that you have been defeated, humiliated. Well, what are we doing? you have to come together, go ahead and win. 

• Our financial and economic elite, who take advantage of the benefits of this country, have a pirate mentality. He has rights and no responsibilities, their children should not serve. We should give the money, let other people’s children serve. There isn’t a country in the world that went through a professional army and didn’t rot in the end. This is how Rome exploded. There is no such example in the world. 

• We are walking on the edge of a knife, anything can happen here, geopolitical interests can change, and after 48 hours, Nikol Pashinyan will not be there, because he is glued to the prime minister’s chair purely as a result of geopolitical consensus.:

• The favorite power of the opposition is the power of Samvel Karapetyan, who was subjected to political persecution for just one sentence, he was imprisoned and is still under house arrest because he said: we will protect the church in our own way. If Samvel Karapetyan was a member of a mafia clan, related to a terrorist organization, then one could think that his wording “in our way” could be dangerous, but the person was unjustly imprisoned, and today he is going to the elections in this anti-democratic environment… 

• The political forces that want to go to the elections should be ready for 2021. the scenario that resulted in the depopulation of Artsakh. Let them decide. My approach was to achieve a change of power through street pressure, through impeachment, through constitutional means:

Details in the video.

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