Author: Ara Felekian

The Kremlin said Monday that the future of its peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh would be determined by Russia and Azerbaijan, which last week took control of the territory from Armenian separatists. 

“Since the mission is now on Azerbaijani territory, this will be a subject of our discussion with the Azerbaijani side,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

Russia deployed nearly 2,000 forces to the mountainous region in 2020 as part of a ceasefire deal it brokered between Azerbaijan and Armenia that ended six weeks of brutal fighting for control of the territory.

Peskov’s statement came a day after Moscow said Armenians fleeing after Azerbaijani forces retook control of Nagorno-Karabakh had nothing to fear.

“It’s difficult to say who is to blame (for the exodus), there is no direct reason for such actions,” Peskov told reporters on Thursday.

“People are nevertheless expressing a desire to leave… those who made such a decision should be provided with normal living conditions,” he  added.  

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has warned of “ethnic cleansing” in the region and called for the international community to act.  

Pashinyan had criticised the Russian peacekeeping force for failing to intervene when Azerbaijan launched its lightning offensive to regain control of the region. 

Russia denied the accusations.

The exodus of ethnic Armenians from the enclave marks a fundamental shift in ethnic control of lands disputed by mostly Christian Armenians and predominantly Muslim Azerbaijanis for the past century.

The UN refugee agency on Friday said more than 88,000 people have crossed into Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh and the total could reach 120,000, a figure matching estimates of the entire population of the breakaway region.

Kavita Belani, UNHCR representative in Armenia, told a UN press briefing by video link that huge crowds of tired and frightened people were gathering at registration centres.

“This is a situation where they’ve lived under nine months of blockade,” she said. “And when they come in, they’re full of anxiety, they’re scared, they’re frightened and they want answers.”

“We are ready to cope with up to 120,000 people. It’s very hard to predict how many will come at this juncture,” she added in response to a question about refugee numbers. Initial planning figures were for between 70-90,000 refugees but that needs updating, she added.

Nearly a third of the refugees are children, another UN official told the briefing.

“The major concern for us is that many of them have been separated from their family,” said Regina De Dominicis, UNICEF regional director.

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies representative Hicham Diab said there was a massive need for mental health support for refugees.

“The situation often involves families arriving with children so weak that they have fainted in their parents’ arms,” he said.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and Reuters)

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230929-moscow-baku-to-decide-future-of-russian-peacekeeping-mission-in-nagorno-karabakh

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) – Azerbaijan does not want a mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and is not encouraging anyone to leave the “liberated” region, Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Britain, said on Thursday.

In an interview with Reuters, Suleymanov said Azerbaijan, which took back control of Karabakh last week in a military operation, had not yet had a chance to prove what he said was its genuine commitment to provide secure and better living conditions for those ethnic Armenians who choose to stay.

Some 70,500 people had crossed from Karabakh into Armenia by early Thursday afternoon, Russia’s RIA news agency reported, out of an estimated population of 120,000. Earlier, Ethnic Armenian authorities in Karabakh said they were dissolving the breakaway statelet they had defended against Azerbaijan for three decades.

Many of those leaving have said they fear persecution and ethnic cleansing at the hands of Azerbaijan. Some critics have said the exodus, which has shown how little trust many Armenians have in Azerbaijani promises, is what Baku wants as it will make it easier to resettle the area with Azerbaijanis.

Suleymanov, who issued a call on social media appealing to ethnic Armenians to stay and be part of a multi-ethnic Azerbaijan, said he understood why many civilians were frightened, but that those who chose to stay would benefit from planned rebuilding and infrastructure projects.

“What should Azerbaijan do? We cannot keep them by force, we don’t want to keep anyone by force, (but) we don’t encourage anyone to leave,” he said, adding that Azerbaijani authorities had delivered requested medical, fuel and other supplies.

“We would prefer for people at least to be in a position to make a more informed decision on whether they want to stay. So far, Azerbaijan has not had any chance to prove anything because the time was very short.”

Karabakh Armenians will enjoy the same rights and protections as other citizens of Azerbaijan, he said. Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.

He rejected Armenian fears that Azerbaijan would now proceed to destroy Armenian churches and monasteries in Karabakh, saying Baku had “no reason” to destroy historic monuments.

Baku’s use of force to retake Karabakh has fuelled fears among some Armenians that it may also use force to carve out a land corridor via Armenia to link up western Azerbaijan with its autonomous exclave of Nakhchivan, a strip of territory nestled between Armenia, Iran and Turkey.

Suleymanov said the idea was to re-open transport corridors and make the wider region more prosperous and that he hoped a road and rail corridor could be agreed on via negotiation.

“Nobody is going to open anything by force,” he said. “That defeats the purpose. Nobody is going to put troops there, we’re not going to invade them (Armenia).”

Sept 6 (Reuters) – Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint army exercise with the United States next week, at a time of rising military tension with neighbouring Azerbaijan and open friction in its relationship with Russia.

The Armenian Defence Ministry said the purpose of the Sept. 11-20 “Eagle Partner 2023” exercise was to prepare its forces to take part in international peacekeeping missions.

A U.S. military spokesperson said 85 U.S. soldiers and 175 Armenians would take part. He said the Americans – including members of the Kansas National Guard, which has a 20-year-old training partnership with Armenia – would be armed with rifles and would not be using heavy weaponry.

The move comes at a time of intense Armenian frustration with its ally Moscow. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has accused Russia, distracted by its war with Ukraine, of failing to protect Armenia against what he called continuing aggression from Azerbaijan.

Olesya Vartanyan, senior South Caucasus analyst at non-profit conflict prevention organisation Crisis Group, said Armenia was sending a signal to Moscow that “your distraction and the fact that you are so inactive plays towards our enemy”, meaning Azerbaijan.

Despite the small scale of the exercise, Russia said it would be watching closely. It has a military base in Armenia and sees itself as the pre-eminent power in the South Caucasus region, which until 1991 was part of the Soviet Union.

“Of course, such news causes concern, especially in the current situation. Therefore, we will deeply analyse this news and monitor the situation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Russia maintains a peacekeeping force in the region to uphold an agreement that ended a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, the second they have fought since the Soviet collapse.

The frustration between Russia and Armenia is mutual, with Moscow this week accusing Pashinyan of “public rhetoric bordering on rudeness”.

Vartanyan said that while Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to a possible peace agreement than they have been for years, there is also a serious risk of a major new escalation between them.

Tensions are running high because of a nine-month Azerbaijani blockade of the highway linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave that is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is populated by around 120,000 ethnic Armenians.

Azerbaijan has justified its action by saying Armenia was using the road to supply weapons to Karabakh, which Armenia denies. The squeeze has led to shortages of fuel, medicine and food, including rationing of bread.

Vartanyan said footage on social media in recent days was showing increasing Azerbaijani military movements near the front line between the two countries. “It doesn’t look good at all,” she said.