Netgazeti , Georgia
Nov 15 2018
The last accord of the revolution – parliamentary elections in Armenia
My Step on the path to parliamentary majority
by Mikayel Zolyan
[Armenian News note: the below is translated from Georgian]
On 14 November, two blocs and nine parties submitted their lists of candidates [for the 9 December parliamentary elections] to the Armenian Central Electoral Commission. Elections to the National Assembly of Armenia [parliament] are due on 9 December. Precisely these elections are going to be the last accord in the political process, which began on 31 March and which is sure to make history under the name of the Revolution of Love and Solidarity.
The intrigue of the election comprises several main issues. It is first and foremost important how many per cent the party of the “revolutionary authorities”, i.e. the My Step bloc led by [Acting Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan, will win.
Despite the fact that the victory of Pashinyan’s bloc is effectively in no doubt, it is significant what the showing of his victory will be. It is also important, which other political forces will enter parliament and which of them will come second. Yet another intrigue of the elections is what the percentage of the former ruling Republican Party of Armenia will be and whether it will manage to remain part of the political landscape of post-revolutionary Armenia.
As is usually the case at least in democratic countries, the main question in elections is certainly, which political forces will comprise the new parliament.
In the case of the elections in Armenia, it is obvious who the favourites are. These are Pashinyan’s supporters comprising the My Step bloc. The bloc comprises Civil Contract, which is Pashinyan’s party; the Mission, which is a small party; and independent candidates.
The name My Step derives from the following slogan: Take a step and reject [former Armenian President] Serzh [Sargsyan] (“Kayl ara, Merzhir Serzhin”). It is significant what My Step’s percentage will be.
In the election in Yerevan, when Pashinyan’s supporters gained 82 per cent, quite a high benchmark was established. Armenia is quite a homogeneous country in social and demographic terms. Thus, the level of support for Pashinayn’s political force across the country in general is not going to be different from what we saw in Yerevan. However, this does not imply that the My Step bloc cannot encounter difficulties.
On 21 October, local elections were held in four towns. In three of them, Pashinyan’s supporters won a victory. However, in the town of Kapan, which is known for its industries, a local candidate – a businessman – won. Thus, Pashinyan’s supporters will have to work hard to make sure that the results meet the high expectations created by the election in Yerevan.
The fact that in the former parliament, representatives of the Republican majority effectively disrupted voting for a new electoral code, which was ready to be adopted, might cause hindrance to the My Step bloc.
As a result, the election will be held according to the old electoral code, which was developed in the past precisely in the interests of the Republican Party. Despite the fact that elections in Armenia are held according to the proportional system, the current electoral code effectively preserves elements of the majoritarian system [elections in single-mandate constituencies].
This implies that voting for a specific party, voters will also have to elect one of the candidates running in concrete electoral districts. In the end, this gives a chance to so-called local feudal lords, representatives of local bureaucracies and those of businesses or criminal circles to enter parliament, giving an opportunity of additional votes to their parties.
It was this system that made it possible in the spring 2017 election to use the “technologies” such as vote buying or administrative pressure. In the 2018 election, this will also provide “local feudal lords” with an opportunity to take away votes from Pashinyan and other “revolutionary” parties.
Nevertheless, we should not overestimate the factor. Armenia of 2017 and Armenia of 2018 are two different countries and whatever happened at that time is not going to work out in the same manner. However, if the results gained by Pashinyan’s bloc are much lower than those achieved in Yerevan [82 per cent] [square brackets as published], this will be a serious blow to the prestige of the “revolutionary authorities”, even if My Step nevertheless forms a majority in parliament. However, at present, there is no such likelihood. Many observers now expect the My Step bloc to obtain no less than 70 per cent, or even more.
Contenders for second place
The main intrigue of the election is which other parties will manage to enter the National Assembly. Among the contenders is the Prosperous Armenia party led by Gagik Tsarukyan. In the Yerevan election, Tsarukyan’s party came second, gaining 7 per cent, despite the fact that in the regions, it has traditionally enjoyed strong support.
It is quite hard to define the ideology of the party. This can be conventionally called mild populism. The party mainly counts on the image of Tsarukyan as one of the richest people [in Armenia] “thinking about people”. The image was created under the influence of his years-long charity activities and is due to the Kentron TV company that is under his control.
However, the fact that over the past years, the party has played the role of “systemic opposition” and that earlier, it was in the coalition with the Republican Party might cause hindrance to prosperous Armenia. The party’s somewhat incomprehensible behaviour during the developments in early October [which I wrote about in my previous article] [square brackets as published] did not boost its popularity, either.
It is not quite clear what fate the liberal parties Bright Armenia and Republic will face. In the former parliament, these parties were Pashinyan’s allies in the Yelk [Way Out] faction. In the new parliament, they can play the role of “constructive opposition” to the authorities.
In the Yerevan election in September, they ran as part of the Luys [Light][square brackets as published] bloc, coming third in it. However, in the parliamentary election, they decided to run separately, which significantly decreases their chances to enter parliament.
However, this time, it is Bright Armenia that has decided to separately run in the election, while the Republic is going to form a bloc with Free Democrats. Thus, their chances, as well as those of others, are [now] much lower than in the Yerevan election.
The Dashnaktsutyun party, which is one of the oldest parties in Armenia talking a national-patriotic position, has quite vague prospects: In the Yerevan election, it gained only 1.62 per cent. If Dashnaktsutyun shows the same result this time, too, this is not going to be a major sensation in the Armenian political life.
Dashnaktsutyun is one of the oldest political parties in Armenia, whose name is linked to the history of the First [Armenian] Republic in 2018-1020 and it still remains the most influential force in the diaspora
In Armenia proper, Dashnaktsutyun has been in all parliaments since 1998, mostly forming a coalition with the ruling party. However, it was the role of the Republican Party’s partner or that of “systemic opposition” that delivered a serious blow to the party’s positions.
As a result, many of those, who felt close to Dashnaktsutyun’s national-patriotic discourse, turned their back to the party, which might make an impact on its results.
In a certain way, the Sasna Tsrer party, where those who seized the Patrol Police building in July 2016 form the core, might take Dashnaktsutyun’s place in the national-patriotic sector of the political landscape. Relations between Pashinyan and Sasna Tsrer have been quite complicated. However, Sasna Tsrer currently renounces armed struggle, showing support for “the revolutionary authorities”.
At the same time, they voice criticism of the new leadership for their insufficient strictness towards representatives of the “old regime”. They also voice sharp criticism of the present approaches in foreign policy, in particular the existing model of relations with Russia. They also show non-acceptance of any concessions in relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
And lastly, over the past several weeks, a left-wing party has appeared in Armenia: Social Democratic Party – Citizens’ Decision. The new party’s chances are not high in the elections: The party got registered two days prior to the deadline, having too little time to get prepared for the election.
However, in the longer run, the party, whose ideology was mainly formed under the influence of German “Greens” and other “New left” [parties], might not have poor chances in the Armenian political life.
Until now, there has been a certain vacuum in the Armenian left-wing political landscape. At the same time, the party comprises many activists, who played an important role during the revolution.
And lastly, there is yet another question, which Armenian voters will have to answer in the elections: What fate is the former ruling Republican Party going to face?”
The Republicans have former Defence Minister Vigen Sargsyan at the top of their list. However, former Prime Minister and President Serzh Sargsyan remains to be the party leader.
No-one doubts that the level of support for the Republicans cannot compare with “the pre-revolutionary situation”. Nevertheless, the Republicans expect to receive expressed and unexpressed support from a significant part of the old elites, both political and business elites. From all appearances, this was what the Republicans counted on when doing their best to make sure that the elections be held according to the old electoral code, which allows “local feudal lords” to influence the results of the elections.
It is not ruled out that Republicans will receive support from yet another former president, Robert Kocharyan, who did say that he was going back to politics and form a party, but has had no time to do so yet.
If the Republicans manage to enter parliament with the help of all these resource, they will not only be able to influence concrete decisions, but might also have the opportunity to go back to politics in the long run.
If the Republican Party proves to be out of parliament, it might break up, ceasing to exist as a domestic Armenian political factor. One way or another, it is up to the voters to take a final decision. What matters most in the December 2018 elections is that it should meet democratic standards.
In September, voters in Yerevan already showed that despite the common post-Soviet stereotype, Armenian society is capable of holding free and competitive elections with no [fake] ballots put into boxes, vote buying, and administrative pressure.