Women and children have been evacuated from at least one village
As the fighting in Ukraine stretches into its first month, another conflict between two former Soviet states might not be far away. Last year, a brief but bloody war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been autonomously governed by ethnic Armenians over the past three decades. Backed by fearsome drones and heavy weaponry from their Turkish allies, the Azerbaijani forces made rapid gains. Many in the tiny Caucasus nation of Armenia feared the whole country could soon be overrun.
Although quickly deleted, that thumbs up emoji has proven controversial in Armenia. Tensions have been growing between the two countries – one has a vested interest in a strong Russian military; the other clearly does not. ‘What do we owe Ukraine?’ Anna asks. ‘Everyone sat by and watched the war in Karabakh – Britain, America, Ukraine. Only Russia helped us.’ Over the last month, the country has welcomed tens of thousands of middle-class Russians fleeing repression back home. ‘This is a good thing,’ Anna says. ‘We are a poor people, and maybe the Russians will spend money.’
However, some Armenians are sympathetic towards the plight of the Ukrainians. ‘We know what it is like to be attacked,’ says Raz, a 29-year old tech worker. ‘We have seen our friends coming home in coffins and we worry about whether our country will cease to exist, so of course we support Ukraine. But we are so dependent on Russia that we can’t do anything about it.’ Despite pursuing close ties with the West, Yerevan has so far declined to sanction Moscow in the wake of the invasion and its UN diplomats have abstained on votes against Russia.
In Nagorno-Karabakh, which most Armenians consider an integral part of their country, another humanitarian crisis is growing. Azerbaijan has reportedly cut off gas supplies, leaving homes without heating as temperatures drop below freezing. Officials in the Azeri capital, Baku, deny turning off the taps, accusing the separatists of doing it themselves for propaganda purposes.
The rhetoric coming out of Azerbaijan is itself chilling. One MP from the ruling party said earlier this month that Russian peacekeepers had stood in the way for too long. ‘Measures must be taken to eliminate those separatist terrorists who exist in our territory today,’ he said, hinting that a new military campaign could soon be underway.
As Putin’s tanks entered Ukraine, the Russian President raged against the artificial borders left by the fall of the Soviet Union. Now, Armenia, which has turned to Russia for protection, may soon see its enemies attempt to redraw those same borders once again.