Today’s Zaman, Turkey
June 17 2012
South Caucasus — heading for a hot summer
AMANDA PAUL
As we head towards the summer, tensions in the South Caucasus are
increasing. Escalating tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia over
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, deteriorating relations between
Azerbaijan and Iran, continued concerns over Iran’s nuclear program,
the return of Vladimir Putin to the Kremlin and upcoming
Russian/Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military
exercises in the region are a potent mix.
After almost two decades, a resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict remains elusive. Karabakh, an internationally recognized part
of Azerbaijan, and seven surrounding Azerbaijani territories remain
under Armenian control, with the conflict remaining a significant
security threat. Over the last few weeks there has been a rise in
violations of the cease-fire across the heavily militarized line of
contact, as well as growing attacks across the Armenian-Azerbaijani
state border. In particular, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s
visit to the region was accompanied by several deaths. While this is
not the first time such a tense situation has arisen, these periods
come and go depending on what is happening in the peace talks, in
domestic politics and in the broader region; it is still very worrying
— more so when innocent civilians are among the casualties. While
both Azerbaijan and Armenia seem to have become experts in
`containing’ violations, not allowing them to spiral into something
more sinister, it is a dangerous game as there is always the risk of
war by accident. Moreover, whenever the region enters an election
cycle, there is a loss of momentum in the peace talks and an increase
in belligerent rhetoric from both sides that is also
counterproductive.
A recent report by Saferworld highlights the escalating dangers,
stressing the need for the international community to put greater
effort into finding ways to promote sustainable peace. It includes
recommendations to improve the lives of ordinary Azerbaijanis and
Armenians residing near the conflict zone. This is particularly the
case for those living near the line of contact as they face a double
vulnerability related to both security and livelihood. There is a need
for more pressure to cooperate on confidence-building measures (CBMs)
of both a military and civilian nature. This could include joint
investigations into incidents that involve the targeting of civilians
and their property, sniper withdrawal and resource management. While
the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia are due to meet in
Paris on June 18 to discuss some new proposals put forward by the US,
there seems little hope of any concrete progress being made until
after the 2013 presidential elections in both states. Therefore, this
should be a time when CBMs are given a greater priority.
Azerbaijan’s deteriorating relationship with Iran is also worrying.
The fact that Azerbaijan’s leadership orients the country towards the
West makes Iran nervous. Iran has always been fearful of Baku’s
deepening ties with the West and in particular the US and Israel. The
recent rise in tensions has been caused by Iran’s `meddling,’
including alleged efforts to support hard-line Shiite movements and to
promote terrorism in Azerbaijan, including offering ideological and
financial support to radical groups. More recently, Iran’s state-run
media heavily criticized Eurovision in Baku, which they labeled an
un-Islamic and scandalous show, describing it as an `insult to the
sanctities’ of Islam that resulted in a rebuke from Azerbaijan.
However, the contrast between secular Azerbaijan and the Iranian
theocracy means it may prove very difficult to normalize its
relations.
Another destabilizing factor comes from planned military exercises.
Last week, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan stated that
special military exercises will be held on June 25-27 to check how the
state system of Armenia would act at war. Moreover, in September
Armenia will host a joint exercise of the Collective Rapid Reaction
Force of the CSTO titled `Cooperation 2012.’ This is part of Russia’s
`Caucasus-2012′ exercises. This year’s exercise will be on a larger
scale than previously and will apparently be focused on possible
conflicts in the region, especially on a military strike against Iran.
For the first time not only the Army, the Navy, the Air Force and the
Strategic Rocket Forces will participate, but also the Russian Secret
Service, the Interior Ministry, the Federal Protective Service and all
other security structures. Moreover, all methods of so-called
networked warfare (the use of electronic and satellite observation,
drones and precision weapons) will be tested as well as new automated
warfare systems.
As I have mentioned in a previous column, Georgia’s leadership is very
nervous about these exercises, which will take place just a few weeks
before key parliamentary elections and be held not only in Armenia but
in the occupied Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as
well as in Russia. The Georgians have called on the West to raise
their concerns with Moscow, yet until now this plea seems to have
fallen on deaf ears, although it is obvious such exercises are highly
provocative and certainly do not serve to build trust and security in
this region.
From: A. Papazian