THE MEGHRI HYDROPOWER PLANT AND THE GEOGRAPHICAL APPETITE OF AZERBAIJAN
by Vahe Davtyan
arminfo
Wednesday, November 21, 19:19
Notwithstanding the geopolitical realities in the region, particularly,
despite the growing anti-Iranian mood, Armenia does not betray its
energy partner and decides no implement the earlier agreed large
international project.
The construction of a hydropower plant on the river Araks near the
town of Meghri was launched on November 8. This event was reflected
in both local and foreign mass media. Various scientific and would-be
scientific circles gave their comments on the new Iranian-Armenian
project. The interest in this topic is nothing extraordinary,
especially given the fact that within the frames of the project Iran
and Armenia express their intentions to build the two most powerful
hydropower plants in the South Caucasus: on the Armenian side the
HPP will be located in Meghri, and on the Iranian side – in Karachilar.
Moreover, the construction will be carried out simultaneously and this
will allow optimizing the expenses by approximately 15%. Each of the
plants will annually generate 793 mln KW/h electric power. The designed
capacity of the Meghri HPP will be 130 MW. The construction of the
HPP, which will last 5 years, is estimated at $323 mln. An Iranian
investment company will provide this amount as a loan, and Armenia
will redeem the loan by the electric power generated by the HPP.
Thus, notwithstanding the current geopolitical realities in the region,
particularly, despite the growing anti-Iranian mood, Armenia does
not betray its energy partner and decides to implement the earlier
agreed large international project. The latter is undoubtedly more
than logical from the point of view of both the economic interest
and the demonstration of its foreign political stability in the
rapidly changing force structure design in the region. And though
more and more opinions are expressed about the presence of the
Russian factor in this issue (they say the spectacular activation of
the Armenian-Iranian cooperation is nothing but a part of Russia’s
geopolitical scenario aimed at creating a counterweight to the Western
mood in the region, as very often parallels are drawn with Russia’s
initiative on construction of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline), I
suppose there is a more impartial explanation for the given phenomenon.
The thing is that the whole northern part of Iran Armenia is adjacent
to experiences a serious shortage of electric power. By investing over
300 mln USD in the project, Iran first and foremost solves the problem
of energy security of its northern provinces, where the population
still suffers from the cold every winter. I think the latter should
open the eyes of a number of Azerbaijani politicians and experts (first
of all, the representatives of the Center for Strategic Studies under
the President of Azerbaijan), who wonder why Iran, which suffers a
severe economic crisis, should invest in such a project. Moreover,
the specified gentlemen have repeatedly cast doubt on the strategic
importance of the project, referring to more urgent problems for Iran:
shortage of medical supplies, financial deficiency, etc.
Farhad Mamedov, Head of the specified Center for Strategic Studies
under the President of Azerbaijan, has recently made such a statement.
He pointed out that “Iran’s policy with respect to Azerbaijan is
not clear” and, as always, connected this issue with the “occupied
territories”: “…if these projects cover the occupied territories
of Azerbaijan, the Government of Azerbaijan will naturally express
a point-blank opinion”.
First of all, I would like to urge the Azeri experts to be more
careful in using the “economic crisis” term as today it has become a
more philosophical than purely economic concept and poorly fits into
objective economics.
Secondly, before questioning the strategic significance of Meghri
HPP, the Azeri experts should better ask themselves: What can be
more strategically significant for a state than to ensure its energy
security? I think there are not many such priorities.
Perhaps, what the Azeris are actually concerned about is not so
much the developing Armenian-Iranian relations as Iran’s wish to
ensure the energy security and the economic growth of its northern
provinces. As you may know, some 10 years ago the ruling Azeri party,
Yeni Azerbaijan, published a map where Azerbaijan’s territory extended
into the north of Iran. Azerbaijan’s “territorial” appetite has never
been a secret. So, we can say that the Armenian-Iranian project has
come across that country’s geographical ambitions.
And finally, the very attempt to link any issue to the concept of
“occupied territories” has long been received with a smile by both
experts and ordinary people, including many in Azerbaijan.
Of course, we should not neglect the political aspect. Iran is solving
specific political tasks when investing money in this project, one
of them being to find strategic partners to make the international
sanctions less painful. And Meghri HPP is just the beginning of a
large-scale cooperation program, envisaging among other projects the
building of a railway and the laying of an oil pipeline. And even
though for many these plans are still up in the air, the very fact
that there are such plans proves that the Armenian-Iranian cooperation
is gaining momentum. And each such project should be regarded as part
of this context.
From: A. Papazian